The U.S. Economy: Stand by for more worse news

[Billy T]

It would be wise to do the math, so that you have some factual basis on which to make that claim....

Not clear what math you want done, but note one of the three phase of China's NS water project* is: "1,155km long and involves the construction of 23 pumping stations with the installed capacity of 453.7MW" From the link I quoted earlier. I think that is the phase I showed photo of and is just now starting to deliver water. The final phase, if memory serves correctly with be done after 2050 and before 2060.

* I guess pjdude1219 thinks the Chinese are stupid to not solve their worse water problem with sea water desalination plants as California will in the end. Because that is a relatively quick, but expensive (both in energy & capital) solution that seems to be the only way California can go:

In the early 1990s, fears that a drought-induced limit to imported water could leave San Diego County with just a trickle from its scarce local supply prompted the regional water agency to include desalination as part of its long-term strategy, according to Bob Yamada, a planning manager with the San Diego County Water Authority.

Today, the county's Carlsbad Desalination Project under construction is the largest seawater desalter in the Western Hemisphere. When it comes online in 2016, the $1 billion facility will produce enough water to meet the daily needs of 300,000 area residents, which is about 7 percent of the county's water requirements.

The water authority is locked into a 30-year deal with the plant's developer, Poseidon Water, to purchase desalted water for about $2,000 an acre foot in 2012 dollars. That's nearly twice as expensive as the current rate for imported water and will add $5 to $7 per month to ratepayers' bills, which is about a 10 percent hike.

 

[billvon]

Not clear what math you want done, but note one of the three phase of China's NS water project is: "1,155km long and involves the construction of 23 pumping stations with the installed capacity of 453.7MW" From the link I quoted earlier. I think that is the phase I showed photo of and is just now starting to deliver water. The final phase, if memory serves correctly with be done after 2050 and before 2060.

OK. So you have posted an example of a project that will take ~50 years and will still be considerably shorter than the canal you envision. It is also currently the most expensive engineering project in the world. The partial amount completed so far takes half a gigawatt in power for pumps - even though the elevation change is only about 140 feet, not 500. Not very good evidence an Erie to Mead canal would make economic (or environmental, or energy) sense.

 

[Billy T]

OK. So you have posted an example of a project that will take ~50 years and will still be considerably shorter than the canal you envision. It is also currently the most expensive engineering project in the world. The partial amount completed so far takes half a gigawatt in power for pumps - even though the elevation change is only about 140 feet, not 500. Not very good evidence an Erie to Mead canal would make economic (or environmental, or energy) sense.

I don't "envision only canals" China uses natural rivers when it can. I will not do it again, but get map and see where there are some on the west side of the continental divide one could use. Yes you would pump up some and recover about 80% of the energy on the down hill side.

And yes, as I said earlier, US needed to start work in mid 1960s to have solution now, but Script and others foretold this water shortage was coming. US just can not do project with first benefit many decades from the start as China can.

here is the caption with it:
"The Charles Meyer Desalination Facility in Santa Barbara, Calif. is something of a time capsule from the early 1990s when it was completed at a cost of $34 million. It only operated for a few months and has remained dormant for over twenty years. Now the city of Santa Barbara is considering restarting the aging desalination plant to deal with the state's drought." (with a 20 million restart, up grade, cost) See same link as given above for more.

Note if drought is related to global warming as most think is the case, this is yet another "positive feed back system." I.e. more CO2 released for the more energy for desalination plants required, making more global warming etc.

 

[pjdude1219]

Not clear what math you want done, but note one of the three phase of China's NS water project* is: "1,155km long and involves the construction of 23 pumping stations with the installed capacity of 453.7MW" From the link I quoted earlier. I think that is the phase I showed photo of and is just now starting to deliver water. The final phase, if memory serves correctly with be done after 2050 and before 2060.

* I guess pjdude1219 thinks the Chinese are stupid to not solve their worse water problem with sea water desalination plants as California will in the end. Because that is a relatively quick, but expensive (both in energy & capital) solution that seems to be the only way California can go:

the chinese didn't want to use a water source invested with non native invasive species either. nor have to cross one of the largest rivers in the world. the chinese also are taking water from low population areas to high population while your lovely idea is to do the reverse. again a lot people people were against chinese canal. and your idea is just mind boggling idiotic. it is the least cost effective and time effective strategy.

also i'd like to point out so far your entire argument has been china did it so it must be a good idea.

china is also pissing off it neighbors be diverting water from rivers such as the mekong. at the end of the day your glorifying a stupid selfish move by a tyranny to attack the decision making of a republic. your a crack pot you know that.

 

[Billy T]

Here is a brief video by Scripts: http://www.global-warming-forecasts.com/water-supply-shortage-water-scarcity-climate.php
This is a quote from it: "I heard somebody say that they we were going to double the population of the State of California by 2050. I don't know what they are going to drink but it's not going to be water. " — Tim Barnett, Ph.D. Research Marine Physicist, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego

Note the Colorado River begins near Denver, CO. If you were to move less than 2% of the currently wasted fresh water from Lake Michigan* (Only let 98% of the current flow into the Atlantic Ocean continue to be wasted). You would do that by a series of approximately level canals. Typically made by excavation at their more western end, and the removed dirt raising them at their more eastern end. There would be a lift station where they join. Perhaps a few tunnels thru some mountain ridges as China has done. If the total lift is ~5000 feet then each cubic foot (62 pounds) of water require 310,000 pound feet or 420,303 Joules (watt -seconds)= 4.20303E5 watt seconds.
The first phase of the Chinese NS water transfer project used 23 pumping stations with the installed capacity of 453.7MW = 4.537E8 watt.

4.537E8 / 4.203E5 = 1,079 cubic feet seconds of water moved up 5000 feet or a flow of 1079 cu ft/ s
The average flow of the Colorado river is 22,500 cu ft/s but at times it is only 422 cu ft / s. The minimum is the critical concern as that is the critical time - can not store the snow-melt spring's peak flow so most of it is wasted; however, the alternative of trying to pump much of that excess into the ground to restore falling water table should be considered too. To do that in a month instead of 365 days would require much more capital invested in power plants.

Thus with same power the Chinese are using, the minimum flow could be increased by a factor 2.557 or the average flow increased by nearly 5%.

What needs to be done is compare to the alternative of salt water desalination, just for academic interest, as US has let the opportunity to move existing fresh water pass decades ago and now must MAKE fresh water.

* Lake Michigan is better choice than Lake Erie, not be cause it is 8 feet higher, but because point not far North of Chicago is closer to Denver. I.e. the total length of the canals would be less than 800 miles. The Erie canal construction started nearly 200 years ago. The original canal was 363 miles (584 km) long, from Albany on the Hudson to Buffalo on Lake Erie. The channel was cut 40 feet (12 m) wide and 4 feet (1.2 m) deep. We could do much better now. It was done with shovels!

 

[pjdude1219]

Here is a brief video by Scripts: http://www.global-warming-forecasts.com/water-supply-shortage-water-scarcity-climate.php
This is a quote from it: "I heard somebody say that they we were going to double the population of the State of California by 2050. I don't know what they are going to drink but it's not going to be water. " — Tim Barnett, Ph.D. Research Marine Physicist, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego

Note the Colorado River begins near Denver, CO. If you were to move less than 2% of the currently wasted fresh water from Lake Michigan* (Only let 98% of the current flow into the Atlantic Ocean continue to be wasted). You would do that by a series of approximately level canals. Typically made by excavation at their more western end, and the removed dirt raising them at their more eastern end. There would be a lift station where they join. Perhaps a few tunnels thru some mountain ridges as China has done. If the total lift is ~5000 feet then each cubic foot (62 pounds) of water require 310,000 pound feet or 420,303 Joules (watt -seconds)= 4.20303E5 watt seconds.
The first phase of the Chinese NS water transfer project used 23 pumping stations with the installed capacity of 453.7MW = 4.537E8 watt.

4.537E8 / 4.203E5 = 1,079 cubic feet seconds of water moved up 5000 feet or a flow of 1079 cu ft/ s
The average flow of the Colorado river is 22,500 cu ft/s but at times it is only 422 cu ft / s. The minimum is the critical concern as that is the critical time - can not store the snow-melt spring's peak flow so most of it is wasted; however, the alternative of trying to pump much of that excess into the ground to restore falling water table should be considered too. To do that in a month instead of 365 days would require much more capital invested in power plants.

Thus with same power the Chinese are using, the minimum flow could be increased by a factor 2.557 or the average flow increased by nearly 5%.

What needs to be done is compare to the alternative of salt water desalination, just for academic interest, as US has let the opportunity to move existing fresh water pass decades ago and now must MAKE fresh water.

* Lake Michigan is better choice than Lake Erie, not be cause it is 8 feet higher, but because point not far North of Chicago is closer to Denver. I.e. the total length of the canals would be less than 800 miles. The Erie canal construction started nearly 200 years ago. The original canal was 363 miles (584 km) long, from Albany on the Hudson to Buffalo on Lake Erie. The channel was cut 40 feet (12 m) wide and 4 feet (1.2 m) deep. We could do much better now. It was done with shovels!

yes because interducing sea lampreys and zebra mussels into most of the US waterways is such a good idea

 

[Billy T]

yes because interducing sea lampreys and zebra mussels into most of the US waterways is such a good idea

Gee, I did not know Chicago had that problem - it gets Lake Michigan water too. Perhaps you are spouting BS?

I give referenced facts an show calculations - Why not try that some time?

 

[pjdude1219]

Gee, I did not know Chicago had that problem - it gets Lake Michigan water too. Perhaps you are spouting BS?

aww how cute you want to attack my knowledge of the area i was born because your getting called out on the fact you proposed an expensive inefficient idea without doing any sort of research. don't say i'm spouting bs cause your to lazy to do research before posting ideas bordering on idiocy.

I give referenced facts an show calculations - Why not try that some time?

or you could just not be lazy and do your own research. I'm for fucks sake even a minimial amount of research into the great lakes should have led to to its issues with invasive species.



oh and by the way you do know the great lakes are attached to the Mississippi via canals? oh wait know that would have required do even the slightest bit of research into your idea before making it out to be the greatest idea ever ::

 

[spidergoat]

It really seems to me like the US would do well to get something to back its currency... or go back to a physical currency as opposed to a 'faith backed' currency... though I don't even know if such a measure would be possible right now.

There is no such thing. Except bartering food and necessities. But that's not currency.

 

[Billy T]

... oh and by the way you do know the great lakes are attached to the Mississippi via canals? oh wait know that would have required do even the slightest bit of research into your idea before making it out to be the greatest idea ever ::

No - I did not know that. Makes the suggestion more attractive if they have sufficient capacity. I'm not trying to design a water transfer system, except when forced to show objections to it are with little factual foundation,

For example your worry "introducing sea lampreys and zebra mussels into most of the US waterways" must already have solution(s) or has this canal you call my attention to already contaminated the Mississippi? How 'bout giving some referenced facts on this "problem" you think makes fresh water transfer unworkable.

My main point was and is: That China can undertake projects with decades of investment before first benefit and the US cannot. I have several times noted that US lost the opportunity to transfer EXISTING fresh water by inaction decades ago when Scripts et. al. predicted the current water shortage in US's SW; so will end up MAKING fresh water by much more expensive (both in energy and dollars) Sea Water desalination plants. This political advantage is one of the main reasons why China is growing in economic influence and the US is declining. The last central committee of the CCP had only engineers (except for one geologist) as members. The top level of US government's administration is >95% lawyers by education. "Lawyers make problems; Engineers solve problems" is only a slight over generalization.

BTW, another example of this Chinese advantage is that China built the world's most efficient and beautiful air port in time for the 2008 Olympics, from the ground up, in less time than England spent on public hearings for an expansion of Heathrow airport.

A Kilometer long with internal rail lines to get you to/from your gate and oval bus & car parking lot. I'm not sure, but think it is now (or soon will be) the world's busiest airport as air travel in China is growing several times faster than anywhere else in the world as more Chinese are growing wealthier rapidly.

 

[iceaura]

. Most of the water level problems in Superior in 2012/2013 were due to evaporation. ...
- - - -
... the inflow and outflow in total is relatively small in absolute terms, and the evaporation loss per surface area is among the smallest in the world for large lakes ...

When you two get your stories non- contradicting each other, I may comment.

There is no conflict in those two facts as posted - Superior's low comparative evaporation rate per area is a fact, and so are the comparatively low inflow and outflow volumes, and so are the recent level drops caused by evaporation - it's a huge area, so even low evaporation rates add to a significant fraction of that inflow volume that you should have researched before you launched this very bad idea.

Also, like the Chinese do, to get "over" tall mountains in the way, you use tunnels.

The barrier is not a few "high mountains", but a high plateau hundreds of miles across and thousands of feet in the air from any of the Great Lakes. The river held by the Hoover Dam is cut into a ravine, not flowing across a landscape at "water level".

I just think US could (has the technical know how) do project on half the scale that China has done. They use tunnels for small faction of the 1200 km they move half the flow of the Nile - We are speaking of a tiny fraction of that flow - say less the 2% of the St Lawrence Sea Way flow. Reason why that US can not solve its SW water shortage problem is not technical, but political.

It's a radically bad idea, is the problem. We could tow icebergs at a fraction of the cost, desalinate seawater at a small fraction of the ecological damage, maybe bring an ice asteroid into orbit and drop pieces into Lake Mead, and we would be making more sense than this.

And quit talking about the volume of the Saint Lawrence, unless that's what you plan to tap. None of the upper Great Lakes have much to spare in their inflow.

And we haven't even begun on the ecological consequences of dumping Great Lakes water into the Colorado River, let alone the Gulf of California. Do you have any idea how many potentially horrific ecological disasters you would be arranging to risk? The Great Lakes are under continual assault from European ballast water and the like, and currently harbor dozens of species that the Pacific Coast wants absolutely nothing to do with. The Chinese may not care, in their circumstances, but they will pay - and probably even their much smaller price will be substantial.

My main point was and is: That China can undertake projects with decades of investment before first benefit and the US cannot. - - - - The last central committee of the CCP had only engineers (except for one geologist) as members.

That is how Great Leaps Forward get launched - or something like a huge plantation of GMO poplar trees with built in insecticide, or a rubber plantation with thousands of square miles of single clone trees, or a giant canal hooking up two disparate aquatic systems that haven't been in communication since before the glacial epoch began. Engineers have certain blind spots.

 

[Billy T]

... The barrier is not a few "high mountains", but a high plateau hundreds of miles across and thousands of feet in the air from any of the Great Lakes. The river held by the Hoover Dam is cut into a ravine, not flowing across a landscape at "water level". ...

Yes, I agree - Why I assume a net lift of the water would need to be 5000 feet in post 785's math analysis. I don't intend to defend ideas opposite to what I actually analyzed. - Find fault with my math, not your misrepresentation of what I computed.

...And we haven't even begun on the ecological consequences of dumping Great Lakes water into the Colorado River, let alone the Gulf of California. Do you have any idea how many potentially horrific ecological disasters you would be arranging to risk?

yes there can be ecological problems. Boats dumping bilge water are already mixing all the oceans. Even just dumping an aquarium into the sea has caused problems. For example, the lion fish is now displacing native fish in Gulf of Mexico and up to the Carolinas on the east coast. Or like when the Panama Canal mixed Atlantic and Pacific waters, etc. It might be a good idea to only use Great Lakes water on land for growing crops - that is main use of Colorado river. - Could let reverse osmosis salt water be used, as it will be, to ease coastal CA cities water shortage.

I'm growing tired of defending the idea, especially as I'm not an expert, have not researched it much, etc. but most attacks on it are not even related to what I'm suggesting. Again, my main point is that the difference in political systems lets China do large investment, decades before first benefit, projects that US can not do, so US ends up with more expensive (Capital and Energy) shorter term solutions. China's building of high-speed rail is another example - much lower pollution per passenger mile delivered and order of magnitude more energy efficient than jets/ per passenger mile. Faster than jets too for trips like NYC to Chicago, if going city center to city center is the time index. US has such poorly maintained rails that even the full speed its trains could do are restricted for miles at a stretch.

Caption of photo is: " The Pacific lionfish is devastating prey animals in the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea. It is one more example of an invading species introduced to an area where the local animals have not had time to adapt to the new predator. "
Read more here: http://www.brantfordexpositor.ca/2014/08/14/science-lionfishs-terminator-style-reason-for-concern
This is good link on them too ($1000 fine if bring one into Florida now - Barn locking after horse is gone): http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/florida-lionfish-ban-nation-s-first-goes-into-effect/
The following is also probably "locking the barn door" too late:

{Arizona} State regulations to help prevent the spread of quagga mussels and zebra mussels went into effect in 2009 and were updated July 2013.

These regulatory measures, known as “Director’s Orders,” were authorized by the Aquatic Invasive Species Interdiction Act passed by the Arizona Legislature in 2009. They give the State of Arizona, particularly the Arizona Game and Fish Department, the authority to identify and assess those species considered aquatic invasives, identify the waters that are affected by those invasives, and establish mandatory conditions for moving watercraft and other equipment from those waters.

Quagga mussels were first found in Arizona in Lake Mead in January of 2007. They originally came from Eurasia and became established in the Great Lakes in the 1980s. Since being discovered, these prolific invaders have spread rapidly.

 

[Billy T]

Dry & Hot. = Wild fires

Generally speaking wind comes from the west - I.e. off the Pacific in California's location. It tends to have higher humidity every year as each degree C of ocean surface Temp rise add 7% more water vapor to the air on average. Perhaps California will be one of the first to see massive heat wave dying with wet bulb temperature of 35C. I had always guessed Bangladesh would be.

Caption of photo is: "The Colorado River Basin lost nearly 53 million acre feet of freshwater over the past nine years. That's almost double the volume of the largest U.S. reservoir, Nevada’s Lake Mead, shown here.
Photographer: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation." It is from link below. Scripts predicted Lake Mead would be dry by 2021 - US did nothing. Congress men are elected for two year terms. Don't fund projects 3.5 terms into the future and Congress is where funding must start! "USA, USA, USA - We're the greatest!" - I'm so sad.

The water reserves in California’s topsoil and subsoil are nearly depleted, and 70 percent of the state’s pastures are now rated “very poor to poor,” according to the USDA.

Reservoir levels are dropping, and groundwater is being drained from the state as farms and cities pull from difficult-to-replenish underground caches. The state’s 154 reservoirs are at 60 percent of the historical average, or 17.3 million acre feet lower than they should be. That’s more than a year’s supply of water gone missing. ...

The Colorado River Basin, which feeds California and six other states, is “the most over-allocated river system in the world,” according to a study of satellite records released last week that shocked scientists with the magnitude of water loss.

Since 2004, the basin lost nearly 53 million acre feet of freshwater. That’s enough to submerge New York City beneath 344 feet of water.

If trend continues with current acceleration, even a crash program of building sea-water desalination plants, may not be fast enough to avoid disaster.

{Post 726 in part}... crop switching is one sign of a sweeping transformation going on in California -- the nation’s biggest agricultural state by value -- driven by a three-year drought that climate scientists say is a glimpse of a drier future. The result will affect everything from the price of milk in China to the source of cherries eaten by Americans. ...

On its own, California would be the world’s ninth-largest agricultural economy, according to a University of California at Davis study. Shifts in its production reverberate globally, said Dan Sumner, another agricultural economist at the school. ...
The success of California agriculture was built in large part on advances in irrigation that allowed the state to expand beyond wheat, which flourishes in dry climates. It’s now the U.S.’s top dairy producer and grows half the country’s fruits, vegetables and nuts. ...

Not just in China, is price of milk going up, but with pasture in US's "top dairy producer" now 70% very poor or poor, Milk prices are going up in a store near you, too.

 

[Michael]

Thanks the Gods our Government Schools are educating young minds (not to sit in a neat row and take State mandated MCQ, but...) to access capital and start businesses as young entrepreneurs. All skilled up with their Government diploma, young Amooricans enter regulatory free market environments just hoping to provide value to those around them. Oh, wait. Government Schooled functional illiterates learn to unquestioning do what they're told by their drill master, sit in seats in rows, raise their hands when they have to pee, have next to no idea how to start a business (either do their Teachers - hence their job in the "service" of the Public), and couldn't even if they wanted to thanks to the massive hyper-regulation and monopoly of rent-seeking by market players who got in first and have since used the State prevent competition.

Nope. Modern Amoooricans' role in society is to (a) work as a greeter at Walmart or (b) mop up after the machines that run (or will soon run) McDonald's or (c) die as cannon fodder in our Political Master's, Central Bankster funded phony wars such that after having raped a few women and having murdered a few children those that survive get to work as (d) Law "Enforcement" / PUBLIC Servants / Police whose job it is to ensure the hyper-regulated markets are maintained for the rent-seekers. In short, protect the top 1%.

Good ole' American Fascism.

ROBOT SERVES UP 360 HAMBURGERS PER HOUR

Unlike the crap humans make at McDonalds, these actually look somewhat edible

Yes, let's raise the minimum wage so we can get these machines into various fast-food joints that much quicker - just imagine all the workers we can free up. Then only one or two humans, paid a 'livable' wage (until inflation wipes it out) can manage / clean up after a kitchen of machines efficiently producing burgers and fries. A quick EBT card tap at the 'counter' (no need to deal with employees at all) out comes your "food". Rent-seeking laws will ensure all those unemployed fastfood ex-employees are not allowed to open up their own competing kitchens or BBQ grills - you know, for "FREE" people who want real hand made food. Nope. To be 'SAFE' we Amoorikkkans get to eat USDA 'regulated' hot ammonia washed pink slime that looks somewhat edible.

FREEDOM in the U.S.S.A.


Welcome to the New Economy - it isn't going anywhere, not in your lifetime.

 

[billvon]

For example your worry "introducing sea lampreys and zebra mussels into most of the US waterways" must already have solution(s) or has this canal you call my attention to already contaminated the Mississippi? How 'bout giving some referenced facts on this "problem" you think makes fresh water transfer unworkable.

That, in a nutshell, is how ecological disasters happen. "How about you PROVE that my idea is unworkable, before you object to my perfectly reasonable idea to introduce some rabbits for hunting in Australia?"

My main point was and is: That China can undertake projects with decades of investment before first benefit and the US cannot.

The Colorado diversion has been the result of decades of investment - and it has led to the problems we are having today. Thus the issue is not incapacity - but rather learning from our mistakes.

I have several times noted that US lost the opportunity to transfer EXISTING fresh water by inaction decades ago when Scripts et. al. predicted the current water shortage in US's SW; so will end up MAKING fresh water by much more expensive (both in energy and dollars) Sea Water desalination plants.

Desalination is indeed expensive, but would be cheaper, easier and less energy intensive than a 2000 mile long canal with associated pumping stations and tunnels.

 

[pjdude1219]

No - I did not know that. Makes the suggestion more attractive if they have sufficient capacity. I'm not trying to design a water transfer system, except when forced to show objections to it are with little factual foundation,

so basicly trying to you actualy defend your ideas is to much work? if you want to propose ideas you have an obligation to make sure you do the research to see if there good ideas and worth the risk.

For example your worry "introducing sea lampreys and zebra mussels into most of the US waterways" must already have solution(s)

it monumentally expensive and time consuming.

or has this canal you call my attention to already contaminated the Mississippi?

not yet but its connected via the chicago river which was made to run in reverse south to north which helps block such things from happening.

How 'bout giving some referenced facts on this "problem" you think makes fresh water transfer unworkable.

i never said it was unworkable i just said it was a bad idea because the benefits don't outway the potental risks.

My main point was and is: That China can undertake projects with decades of investment before first benefit and the US cannot. I have several times noted that US lost the opportunity to transfer EXISTING fresh water by inaction decades ago when Scripts et. al. predicted the current water shortage in US's SW; so will end up MAKING fresh water by much more expensive (both in energy and dollars) Sea Water desalination plants. This political advantage is one of the main reasons why China is growing in economic influence and the US is declining. The last central committee of the CCP had only engineers (except for one geologist) as members. The top level of US government's administration is >95% lawyers by education. "Lawyers make problems; Engineers solve problems" is only a slight over generalization.

so what you think we need to do away with republics in favor of dictatorships? sorry but you hatred of the US and love affair with dictatorships is missing something china screwing up its ecology majorly. its going for major level industry with out regard for the costs of it. once it maximizes that its screwed.

[BTW, another example of this Chinese advantage is that China built the world's most efficient and beautiful air port in time for the 2008 Olympics, from the ground up, in less time than England spent on public hearings for an expansion of Heathrow airport.

A Kilometer long with internal rail lines to get you to/from your gate and oval bus & car parking lot. I'm not sure, but think it is now (or soon will be) the world's busiest airport as air travel in China is growing several times faster than anywhere else in the world as more Chinese are growing wealthier rapidly.

actually the busiest airport in china by passenger traffic is one of the slowest growing of the top 30. and the airport you mention above is the beijing capital international airports which is still only the second busiest airport behind hartsfield jackson and should pass it in the few years if only because the US has so many international airports china has 4 international airports in the top 30 busiest airports the us has 4 in the top ten.

 

[Billy T]

... if you want to propose ideas you have an obligation to make sure you do the research to see if there good ideas and worth the risk. ...

That "worth the risk" is a call for a value judgment, relative to FUTURE circumstances, which them selves are at best educated guesses. So really I can only offer the opinion that the risk of introduction new species, like zebra mussel, is to be compared to the risk that SW USA will economically collapse, due to water shortage, at least as sever as Scripts forecasted more than a decade ago, (Lake Mead dry by 2021, etc.) when cheaper, long term solutions might have been possible. When Scripts issued that warning, Global warming was not considered to be as serious or as fast as it is now. Still the IPCC does not include ANY feed-back mechanisms in its predictions. (30 positive feed backs are now known that act together to mutually accelerate their individual effects, but IPCC includes a few effects by "forcing terms" with zero mutual interactions.) Thus the Arctic Ocean will probably be ice free at end of summer in 2016, at the latest, not the IPCC's typical guess of 2060 of a few years ago.

Man has been accidently introducing new species into the environment for quite a few centuries. For example the noisy, nearly useless, sparrows in US, as I under stand it, all came three breeding pairs, an English bird lover bought to the US. Man does even more: He changes the natural environment, and that forces many creatures into extinction.* (About 200 per day now by some estimates) - Seen any dodos lately?

This is all an academic discussion anyway as the US's political structure is reactive not preventive. As I have said in more than one prior post, California will try to solve the water problem only when forced to and then by more expensive, (capital and energy**) means like salt water desalination - I.e. make fresh water, instead of move existing fresh water.

** As fossil fuels provide ~2/3 of US energy, this solution is also expensive in Global Warming effects.
*

Before humans entered the picture, North America had an impressive assortment of large mammals and birds. The herbivores of this megafauna included 3 species of elephants (woolly mammoths, giant mammoths, and mastodons), horses, camels, giant bison, giant ground sloths, giant armadillos, tapirs, giant beaver, giant tortoises (roughly the size of Volkswagon bugs), and a peccary as large as the wild boars of Europe. An entire guild of now extinct mega-predators existed to feed on these large herbivores, including cheetahs, saber-toothed tigers, giant wolves, and two species of lion (one larger than the modern lions of Africa). There also existed a truly fearsome short-nosed bear, about twice the size of a modern grizzly bear, which ran its prey down like modern wolves do. Jaguars lived far north of their current tropical latitudes, into the boreal forests of Canada, as did many of the New World cats now restricted to Central and South America. There also existed a guild of large meat-eating birds, the largest of which were the teratorns, scavengers with wingspans up to five meters.

SUMMARY: Yes there will be changes in the populations of various creatures, but unfortunately destruction of their habitat has never been as rapid as it is today.
People are a cancer, destroying a diverse biosphere, especially with their mono-culture crops.

 

[Billy T]

That is debt to GDP ratio. At ~ 107% US is relatively well off.

... There is a massive amount of debt outstanding that almost certainly cannot possibly be paid back. Central banks have responded to this growing debt load by reducing interest rates to record low levels given that the economy can support more debt if the cost of servicing this debt is low. But this hasn't been enough and so central banks have resorted to buying up trillions of dollars worth of debt.*

Gold market interventions are designed to mask the severity of this problem.** If the gold price isn't rising then people have faith in the value of currencies and of debt instruments despite the fact that their supply is spiraling out of control.

* In this buying debt and calling it an Asset, the Fed is leading the way. From non-human (other mammal's) POV fact that this house of cards will soon collapse is very desirable - some may survive extinction as 35C wet bulb kills most humans and sends rest into stone age culture. (Wood cooking fires don't make even 0.01% of civilization's CO2 release rate.) That is my optimistic opinion. Unfortunately the CO2 already released will in few hundred years become nearly in equilibrium with its ocean concentration, and that is much too acidic for the photo plankton to survive - I.e. even Eskimos lose the base of their food chain.

** Done in several different ways, but basically via "paper gold" sales that drive the price down. The amount of non-existing gold this paper creates is between 50 to 100 times the volume of real gold sold and physically delivered to buyer, who is increasingly Asian as US vault empty. US last had partially independent audit of gold at Fort Knox in 1950, but even if the gold is there, that does not mean US government owns it.

Most if not all physical gold held by central banks is quickly returned to the market via leases to bullion banks. The rent the central banks receive is so small that it doesn't cover the storage costs, but is better than nothing. Bullion dealers typically sell this borrowed gold and invest the proceeds at much higher rates than their rent cost. This can happen several times with the same gold as one sells to another, etc. Thus, in addition to the selling of "paper gold" the selling (and re-selling) of borrowed physical gold helps hold the price of gold down. If it were to steadily rise, then investors would not be buying debt issued by governmental Treasuries. It is all the world's greatest Ponzi scheme, but few if any will go to jail as it is mainly, at its base, the governments doing it.

As US did not (could not?) deliver Germany's gold even on the seven year return rate initially US agreed to, so Germany has canceled the request for its return:

Ending talk of repatriating the world’s second-biggest gold reserves removes a potential irritant in U.S.-German relations. It’s also a rebuff to critics including the anti-euro Alternative for Germany party, which says all the gold should return to Frankfurt so it can’t be impounded to blackmail Germany into keeping the currency union together.

The Bundesbank, Germany’s central bank, sent a delegation to the New York Fed’s vault in 2012 for spot checks on the hoard.* As the gold’s guardian, the Frankfurt-based Bundesbank is obliged to ensure its safety. It says it’s sensible to store part of the reserves outside the country so they can be swapped more easily for foreign currency in an emergency.

In my opinion central banks know the end of the Ponzi takes them all down, so operate on the "don't shake the boat" principle, at least until one decides to jump ship or Comex etc. must default on gold delivery requests.

* They did see a few bars, but were not allowed to touch any. Bundesbank does not even know the serial numbers of the bars it owns - they can be shown any US has.

 

[joepistole]

That is debt to GDP ratio. At ~ 107% US is relatively well off.* In this buying debt and calling it an Asset, the Fed is leading the way. From non-human (other mammal's) POV fact that this house of cards will soon collapse is very desirable - some may survive extinction as 35C wet bulb kills most humans and sends rest into stone age culture. (Wood cooking fires don't make even 0.01% of civilization's CO2 release rate.) That is my optimistic opinion. Unfortunately the CO2 already released will in few hundred years become nearly in equilibrium with its ocean concentration, and that is much too acidic for the photo plankton to survive - I.e. even Eskimos lose the base of their food chain.

Yes the US debt to GDP ratio is good compared to many other countries. But you are still overstating US debt. As has been pointed out to you numerous times over the years, the number you are citing includes debt the government owes itself. So it really isn’t debt in the sense in which you are using it. If the US Treasury used the same reporting methods used in private companies, interagency debt would be netted out and not reported as debt. That is why the US Treasury reports “public debt” separately. And “public debt” is much less, about 5 trillion dollars less, than the number you are using.

And yes, debt is an asset, but it is also a liability. I guess you have not heard of double entry accounting. Double entry accounting is the norm. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double-entry_bookkeeping_system

And you may not like to recognize the fact that debt has value to the creditor, it does. That is why debt is booked as an asset. That very basic fact is the foundation of finance. Future cash flows have value. And debt is a legal instrument which generates future cash flows. As much as it irks you, those future cash flows have value.

** Done in several different ways, but basically via "paper gold" sales that drive the price down. The amount of non-existing gold this paper creates is between 50 to 100 times the volume of real gold sold and physically delivered to buyer, who is increasingly Asian as US vault empty. US last had partially independent audit of gold at Fort Knox in 1950, but even if the gold is there, that does not mean US government owns it.

Most if not all physical gold held by central banks is quickly returned to the market via leases to bullion banks. The rent the central banks receive is so small that it doesn't cover the storage costs, but is better than nothing. Bullion dealers typically sell this borrowed gold and invest the proceeds at much higher rates than their rent cost. This can happen several times with the same gold as one sells to another, etc. Thus, in addition to the selling of "paper gold" the selling (and re-selling) of borrowed physical gold helps hold the price of gold down. If it were to steadily rise, then investors would not be buying debt issued by governmental Treasuries. It is all the world's greatest Ponzi scheme, but few if any will go to jail as it is mainly, at its base, the governments doing it.

This makes about as much sense as Sy-Fy’s, “Stonehenge Apocalypse” or “Sharknado” movies. The science or lack of it and lack of reasoning and facts are very similar. If only you knew something of the subject matter of which you write.

This really isn’t that difficult, real gold is traded and the right to sell or buy gold (“paper gold) at some future time is sold daily on markets. And futures markets can influence the price of gold upward or downward. It’s called speculation. If people think the price of gold in the future is going down, they are more likely to sell or delay purchases which would drive down current prices. Conversely, if people think gold prices will rise, they are more likely to buy gold today and drive current gold prices upward.

Further, you cannot short metals in the way you describe. People can short funds which own gold or they can short a futures contract (contract for future gold delivery). But they cannot borrow and sell the metal as you have alleged – damn minor detail again.

Two, the Federal Reserve doesn’t own any gold. The Federal Reserve holds gold for foreign countries like Germany. But it doesn’t own any gold. The US Treasury owns and is responsible for US government gold, so all of these gold conspiracies about the Federal Reserve are just manna for the ignorant. http://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/does-the-federal-reserve-own-or-hold-gold.htm

http://www.investopedia.com/stock-a...gll-dgz-dust-gld-iau-gs-abx-nem-gdx-dgld.aspx
http://commodities.about.com/od/understandingthebasics/a/selling-commodities.htm

** As US did not (could not?) deliver Germany's gold even on the seven year return rate initially US agreed to, so Germany has canceled the request for its return:In my opinion central banks know the end of the Ponzi takes them all down, so operate on the "don't shake the boat" principle, at least until one decides to jump ship or Comex etc. must default on gold delivery requests.

* They did see a few bars, but were not allowed to touch any. Bundesbank does not even know the serial numbers of the bars it owns - they can be shown any US has.

Except, your narrative here has no, ABSOUTELY NO, basis in fact as has been previously pointed out to you. But hey, you are not one to let little things like facts, evidence and reason get in the way of a good conspiracy.

“German gold held by the U.S. Federal Reserve in New York and in Paris is slowly but surely returning home, said a German central bank official in a Tuesday update in New York.

Germany’s gold repatriation program, whereby the nation’s central bank is recalling 674 metric tons from vaults in New York and Paris, is progressing slowly. About 69 tons have returned to Frankfurt so far.

“We have a very great deal of confidence in the security of our gold holdings abroad, so there’s no reason for us to rush through this relocation process,” said Henner Asche, the German Bundesbank’s deputy head of markets, at a New York gathering.

The German central bank is working closely with its French and U.S. counterparts and the Bank of International Settlements to transfer the gold, taking painstaking security and confidentiality measures. Citing security concerns, Asche declined to provide any details on the specifics of the shipments.

Complete relocation of all German gold held abroad isn’t desirable, said Asche, because international finance centers like New York and London provide the best liquidity, in case the Bundesbank decides to exchange gold for cash or other foreign currency.

Frankfurt’s share of Germany’s gold will rise to 50 percent by 2020, as Paris’ share is cut to zero and New York’s share falls to 37 percent. German gold held in London will remain unchanged. Germany held 3,387 tons of gold, or 67 percent of its total reserves, the second highest in the world after the U.S. by tonnage, according to World Gold Council data.

Some gold bars were melted down in Europe to meet the London Good Delivery standard for bars, said Asche.

Though the scheme was first announced in January 2013, that remelting could have contributed to delays before the first shipments started in the fall of 2013, according to George Milling-Stanley, a consultant to central banks on gold buying.

Germany requested a phased delivery over seven years, with each shipment kept small and with no more than one ton in any single delivery, he told IBTimes. “Insurers will cover only deliveries by air, and will not insure shipments of more than one ton at a time,” he said, citing publicly available sources.

A ton of gold is worth $42.2 million at Wednesday’s price of $1312 per ounce. New York’s delivered shipment alone of 37 tons is valued at about 11.9 billion euros ($16.5 billion), on the central bank’s accounting.

India and Sweden are two countries that have pledged gold abroad as collateral for urgent government loans, added Milling-Stanley. He underscored the importance of keeping some gold abroad for liquidity reasons.

About eight standard U.S. 18-wheeler trucks would be required to carry 300 metric tons of gold, the amount of gold Germany is claiming back from the Fed, estimated Anthem Blanchard, CEO of precious metals seller Anthem Vault.

The Bundesbank’s gold management received a favorable audit in 2012 by a German federal court of auditors, added Asche.

The decision to bring Germany’s gold back home wasn’t prompted by political pressure or the court’s audit, but was made independently by the central bank, said Asche.

“In Germany, a lot of emotion is attached to the topic of gold reserves,” said Asche at Bloomberg LP’s headquarters. “The German public in general appreciates the Bundesbank’s gold holdings as national wealth.” http://www.ibtimes.com/german-gold-makes-it-way-back-home-fed-slowly-1563651

 

[Billy T]

Yes the US debt to GDP ratio is good compared to many other countries. But you are still overstating US debt. As has been pointed out to you numerous times over the years, the number you are citing includes debt the government owes itself.

True. For example, I think that US debt, I quoted, includes the bonds Treasury gave to the Social Security trust fund. Until recently when few could collect compared to the many paying the SS tax, SS ran huge surpluses and gave money to the Treasury - but it is all spent as Treasury ran deficits and even had to issue other bonds, which you agree are "real debt" not just booking debt that is an asset of some other government agency. Trouble with your POV, (that the SS trust funds bonds are not real debt) is that it is founded on the idea that those bonds will not need to be paid off like the other bonds Treasury sold to investors will need to be. - That simply is not the case unless you think it is politically possible to tell old folks: "Sorry we are cancelling SS as we don't want to pay off the principle held by the SS trust fund."

Although, currently, I believe, the short fall (SS pay out - SS tax collection) is less than the interest SS trust fund collects on the bonds it holds, that changes soon (or may already have?) I.e. then the short fall will require some of the bonds be redeemed by the treasury. That of course, reduces the interest payments on the smaller volume of bonds held in the trust fund - a problem that rapid feeds on itself as every year more bonds must be redeemed to cover the short fall.

In principle retirement ages could be raised again or benefits cuts or every one under say forty be simple be told "their" SS will not be paid, etc. but none of this is politically feasible. SUMMARY; Those SS bonds must be paid, just like bonds sold to investors - Why they are just as real a part of the US's debt as any other bonds the Treasury has issued.

And yes, debt is an asset...

Only if the debtor can pay it back. New born American baby is about $60,000 in debt before it takes it first breath and his share is growing - he can't pay it back.* So Fed's "asset" (treasury's debt) will be monetized, as is now, but only more rapidly than now - i.e. greater inflation, making the debt easier to pay with less valuable dollars.

* Hell, even many young adults can not pay off their student loans, which total more than all the debt on charge cards! Furthermore, their "Big Mac" / part time jobs shown up as increase in employment are in aggregate less wages now even with increased employment. More important measures than the BLS's measure of unemployment is the average salary's purchasing power - it going lower - Why even bargain stores like Walmart are making less money now with less sales.
-----------
I don't comment on your long gold text, as you don't seem to know that Germany has recently cancelled its earlier request to get much of its US held gold back - See my Bloomberg link - except to counter your true statement that buyers of paper gold tend to drive the price up, just as seller tend to drive the price down. What you are forgetting is the law of supply and demand. Paper gold has increased supply by at least factor of 50 - that holds the price down. If there were no paper gold for buyers to buy and they had either do without any gold in their investment portfolio, or he had to find an owner of physical gold to buy from, then the price would be much higher - simple law of supply and demand.