The U.S. Economy: Stand by for more worse news

Professor of Economics Laurence Kotlikoff at Boston University talks some sense (to Russians) about how we're selling out our children to pay for the Babyboomers retirement. The youth are not being properly educated (Wuut... you don't say?) and really don't understand how they're being taken to the cleaners (but they will learn soon enough). He also mentions, like BillyT, how everything is in place NOW for hyperinflation and that there will come a day when Asians stop financing our debt (the so-called bondpocalypse). When that day comes, times are going to be much more difficult for your average American.

Unless you think we're going to get 15% year on year GDP growth, services are going to be drastically cut right along with taxes going through the roof.


[video=youtube;GFdYT8OI6b0]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GFdYT8OI6b0[/video]
 
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Professor of Economics William FairField at Boston University talks some sense (to Russians) about how we're selling out our children to pay for the Babyboomers retirement. The youth are not being properly educated (Wuut... you don't say?) and really don't understand how they're being taken to the cleaners (but they will learn soon enough). He also mentions, like BillyT, how everything is in place NOW for hyperinflation and that there will come a day when Asians stop financing our debt (the so-called bondpocalypse). When that day comes, times are going to be much more difficult for your average American.

Unless you think we're going to get 15% year on year GDP growth, services are going to be drastically cut right along with taxes going through the roof.

First the guy’s name is Laurence Kotlikoff and not William Fairfield. Two, he is a failed presidential candidate. Most Americans have never heard of the guy even though he ran for POTUS last year. Three, Social Security and Medicare are not fixed debts, they can be raised, lowered or eliminated at the discretion of Congress, therefore they are not debt. Fourth, he ignores major changes in US healthcare (i.e. Obamacare) which even now, though not fully implemented, is slowing the growth of healthcare expenses in this country. The US pays twice what any other industrial country pays for healthcare and before Obamacare healthcare costs were rising 4 times faster than income. Indeed, that is simply unsustainable. But your friend doesn’t account for Obamacare and the impact it has had and will have on future healthcare expenses. His comparisons of the US to Greece are spurious at best. He ignores the fact that Greece is no longer a completely sovereign state and can no longer manage its monetary policy. That is probably why no one takes this guy seriously including the 333 million Americans who completely ignored this failed presidential candidate last year. And finally, this guy makes his money peddling this stuff to the American right wing like so many others (e.g. Rush Limbaugh, Hannity, Beck, Levin, et al.).
 
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{post 555, in part}... Just hours ago on CNN* there was more than 5 minute story of the crack down on bribes to high official. For at least 1000 years deeply ingrained in the Chinese culture was that a very generous gift should be given to the the official who could grant what you needed or wanted. CNN show a bottle of rice wine, sold in large volume as a standard gift, that cost more than $600 dollars and lots of other expensive fancy gifts, many much too costly to just be gift for your mother, or girl friend, etc.

Then several Chinese on the street, who could speak English, were interviewed by CNN. More than half knew of the new government´s crack down** on expensive gifts given to officials and thought it was a good effort, but expressed doubt it could over come the long standing tradition. ...
Here is link to part of that CNN program: http://edition.cnn.com/2013/02/08/business/china-bans-luxury-product-ads/index.html?hpt=hp_bn1
(As I recall the TV version was longer with more details.)
 
First the guy’s name is Laurence Kotlikoff and not William Fairfield.
Yes, part of the copy didn't get copied, Laurence Jacob Kotlikoff is a William Warren FairField Professor of Economics at Boston University.

Corrected.

Two, he is a failed presidential candidate. Most Americans have never heard of the guy even though he ran for POTUS last year.
I'm not sure why this matters. 99.999999% of Americans had no clue as to who Ben Bernanke was until he was appointed Fed Chairman. Probably 90% of Americans still don't know who he is. Of those that have some semblance of name recognition 99.999999% wouldn't know what he actually does, what the Federal Reserve is, have no idea how it's related to the US Treasury, hell - they probably think it is the US Treasury.

More people know who Donald Trump is than who Aristotle was.

Three, Social Security and Medicare are not fixed debts, they can be raised, lowered or eliminated at the discretion of Congress, therefore they are not debt.
An obligation isn't a debt. That's an interesting way to look at things.

Fourth, he ignores major changes in US healthcare (i.e. Obamacare) which even now, though not fully implemented, is slowing the growth of healthcare expenses in this country. The US pays twice what any other industrial country pays for healthcare and before Obamacare healthcare costs were rising 4 times faster than income. Indeed, that is simply unsustainable.
Haa! HAAAA!!!

Yeah, the government is going to lower healthcare profits..... HAAAA!!!! Nice one Joe. The AMA is second ONLY to Big Finance in political donations. They're job is make it go up 5 times faster. 6 Times would be even better. They're there to make sure competition is reduced and prices go up. That is their mission statement. I can only imagine a few of them must have salivated over how much the government wastes on the Military Industrial Complex and thought.... I have an idea .....

Unless we introduce REAL competition then Quality will continue to go down and Prices will continue to go up. The "Government" isn't going to run medicine any more efficiently than it runs Public Schools, or the Military for that matter. You know, those "Wonderful" institutions who run through Trillions of tax dollars while kids can't perform basic calculus, hell what was I thinking, I mean basic trigonometry.... wait, algebra... errr... basic math. And those are the few who can read. The Military has been fighting and losing for over 10 years, losing just as it's lost all the wars prior to those ones going all the way back to WWII where we nuked and firebombed cities murdering off millions of civilians - women and children.

Yes Joe, the same "Government" is going to 'Fix' healthcare.... give me a break.

His comparisons of the US to Greece are spurious at best. He ignores the fact that Greece is no longer a completely sovereign state and can no longer manage its monetary policy. That is probably why no one takes this guy seriously including the 333 million Americans who completely ignored this failed presidential candidate last year.
lol....


My My our palace window is way up in the clouds now isn't it? Don't worry, the stench will eventually drift up there.
 
I'm not sure why this matters. 99.999999% of Americans had no clue as to who Ben Bernanke was until he was appointed Fed Chairman. Probably 90% of Americans still don't know who he is. Of those that have some semblance of name recognition 99.999999% wouldn't know what he actually does, what the Federal Reserve is, have no idea how it's related to the US Treasury, hell - they probably think it is the US Treasury.More people know who Donald Trump is than who Aristotle was.

Bernanke didn’t run for POTUS. Bernanke didn’t have political aspirations and was not a part of any political faction. Unlike Kotlikoff, Bernanke was not and is not associated with any fringe political movements.

An obligation isn't a debt. That's an interesting way to look at things.

Medicare and Social Security are not obligations; that was my point. Therefore they are not debts and should not be treated as debts. Medicare and Social Security benefits are whatever Congress says they are. They can be increased, decreased or eliminated at the discretion of Congress.

Haa! HAAAA!!!

Yeah, the government is going to lower healthcare profits..... HAAAA!!!! Nice one Joe. The AMA is second ONLY to Big Finance in political donations. They're job is make it go up 5 times faster. 6 Times would be even better. They're there to make sure competition is reduced and prices go up. That is their mission statement. I can only imagine a few of them must have salivated over how much the government wastes on the Military Industrial Complex and thought.... I have an idea .....

Unless we introduce REAL competition then Quality will continue to go down and Prices will continue to go up. The "Government" isn't going to run medicine any more efficiently than it runs Public Schools, or the Military for that matter. You know, those "Wonderful" institutions who run through Trillions of tax dollars while kids can't perform basic calculus, hell what was I thinking, I mean basic trigonometry.... wait, algebra... errr... basic math. And those are the few who can read. The Military has been fighting and losing for over 10 years, losing just as it's lost all the wars prior to those ones going all the way back to WWII where we nuked and firebombed cities murdering off millions of civilians - women and children.

Yes Joe, the same "Government" is going to 'Fix' healthcare.... give me a break.

Yes much to you chagrin, Obamacare has already taken a bite out of healthcare costs, even though it has not been fully implemented. And much to your chagrin, every industrial country in the world has a government regulated universal healthcare system that is more effective and significantly less expensive than the healthcare system in the US. So history again walks all over your notions about government.

As for Greece, anyone comparing the US to Greece is either ignorant or lying.
 
Bernanke didn’t run for POTUS. Bernanke didn’t have political aspirations and was not a part of any political faction. Unlike Kotlikoff, Bernanke was not and is not associated with any fringe political movements.
And your point? The "Founding Fathers" were a fringe group with political aspirations. If anything, I find people who have a bit of common sense, are a little too honest, and tell people the truth and not what they'd like to hear, don't make it far in politics. Take Ron Paul for example. MSNBC, a so-called news agency, couldn't stop calling him a Racist long or loud enough to stop and hear anything he had to say. They dragged his name through the mud. Obama on the other hand told everyone exactly what they wanted to hear, then renewed the Patriot Act, had two American Citizens assassinated (one an innocent child), continues to invade other nations, continues the illegal wars, bailed out the banks even more than Bush Jr, continues to bail out the rich, didn't close Gitmo, and on and on we go.... ....

Medicare and Social Security are not obligations; that was my point. Therefore they are not debts and should not be treated as debts. Medicare and Social Security benefits are whatever Congress says they are. They can be increased, decreased or eliminated at the discretion of Congress.
Unfunded obligation or unfunded liability, either way, many tens of millions of Americans who have paid into these programs were expecting to get something for their "Golden" Year (ha! they should have bought gold!)

unfunded-liabilities-entitlements-600.jpg


Yes much to you chagrin, Obamacare has already taken a bite out of healthcare costs, even though it has not been fully implemented. And much to your chagrin, every industrial country in the world has a government regulated universal healthcare system that is more effective and significantly less expensive than the healthcare system in the US. So history again walks all over your notions about government.
You DO understand most of Europe as well as Japan have economies sinking into the abyss? The only reason CA and AU are afloat is because of the commodity boom being driven by the Capitalistic Chinese.


Let me paint you a real world example, this one from Australia. An obese patient has a heart attack, patient uses the "Universal" healthcare. He doesn't do shit to change his diet and lifestyle. He has a second heart attack. He access his "Universal" Healthcare. He does nothing to change his diet and lifestyle. He has a third heart attack. At this point my friend told him he needed to diet. Do you know what he told her? To go F*ck herself. He 'Pays his Tax'. Her job is to fix him. He'll damn well eat what he likes to eat.

So? Do you understand that when there's no cost incentive people like this person suck out MILLIONS of dollars. This means that local schools, local parks, all those other 'Public' institutions are with LESS. Any of this making any sense to you Joe? Probably not because in Joe's world there's no such thing as limited resources. The sky's the limit. Dig holes and fill them in! That'll get those 'Animal Spirits' going....

As for Greece, anyone comparing the US to Greece is either ignorant or lying.
No Joe. A comparison is just that - a comparison. You can either agree with parts of it or do not agree. What it isn't is a 'Lie'. A lie is a statement. Two completely different things.
 
And your point? The "Founding Fathers" were a fringe group with political aspirations. If anything, I find people who have a bit of common sense, are a little too honest, and tell people the truth and not what they'd like to hear, don't make it far in politics. Take Ron Paul for example. MSNBC, a so-called news agency, couldn't stop calling him a Racist long or loud enough to stop and hear anything he had to say. They dragged his name through the mud. Obama on the other hand told everyone exactly what they wanted to hear, then renewed the Patriot Act, had two American Citizens assassinated (one an innocent child), continues to invade other nations, continues the illegal wars, bailed out the banks even more than Bush Jr, continues to bail out the rich, didn't close Gitmo, and on and on we go.... ....

No, Michael you are trying to obfuscate again. Let me remind you, you attempted to compare the relative anonymity of Bernanke prior his appointment to the Federal Reserve with that of Kotlikoff. I reminded you that Bernanke was not a member of a fringe political faction as Kotlikoff has been and remains and Bernanke never attempted to run for president on any ticket or act as an advocate of any particular political cause as Kotlikoff has done. This has nothing to do with the founding fathers, Ron Paul, MSNBC, The Patriot Act, or any of the other things you dumped into this response including your machinations about MSNBC and Ron Paul.

Unfunded obligation or unfunded liability, either way, many tens of millions of Americans who have paid into these programs were expecting to get something for their "Golden" Year (ha! they should have bought gold!)

I think you need to reread my last post. I said Medicare and Medicaid were not obligations of the government. Therefore they are not debts as you and your friend Kolikoff have claimed. They are government programs that the government can change at any time. Benefits can be reduced or eliminated at any time or increased at any time.

You DO understand most of Europe as well as Japan have economies sinking into the abyss? The only reason CA and AU are afloat is because of the commodity boom being driven by the Capitalistic Chinese.

You are a little slow Michael. Europe has been in an economic slump because they went down the path you have been and continue to advocate, austerity. Europe has recognized your way doesn’t work and is taking remedial actions similar to what we did in the US. Japan just elected a progressive government because your way didn’t work and intends to use some good old fashioned Keynesian stimulus to get their economy back on track. And that is why Japan has been in rally mode since the Japanese recent election.
 
No, Michael you are trying to obfuscate again. Let me remind you, you attempted to compare the relative anonymity of Bernanke prior his appointment to the Federal Reserve with that of Kotlikoff. I reminded you that Bernanke was not a member of a fringe political faction as Kotlikoff has been and remains and Bernanke never attempted to run for president on any ticket or act as an advocate of any particular political cause as Kotlikoff has done. This has nothing to do with the founding fathers, Ron Paul, MSNBC, The Patriot Act, or any of the other things you dumped into this response including your machinations about MSNBC and Ron Paul.
And I was trying to remind you that being an obscure political figure says nothing about the validity of ones argument. Hold an unpopular view likewise. Example, thinking the world was FLAT was very common 2000 years ago, and yet it wasn't now was it. The World was round even if the only person who held that view was some obscure Roman plebeian whose name was lost to the pages of history.

YOU'RE the one with the case of Alpha Chimp syndrome. Somehow you have it in your head Bernanke and Greenspan have a clue as to how to fix the economy because both were elevated to the position of Federal Chairman. Well, guess what Joe. The FACT is this economy was driving off the edge of a cliff thanks to those two and they had NO CLUE. This is a simple fact of history. Anyone can read the Fed's meeting minutes. They ALL think the economy was prefectly fine, right up until a few months before the stock market crashed. And THESE are the same idiots you think are going to get us out? The same people who got us into this mess? Please, it's quite clear they bailed out their buddies in the top 1% and have been hoping all the little cogs wouldn't notice their lives slowly swirl down the toilet.

In "REAL" science when your models can't predict the biggest economic disasters in a century, when it's right in front of your face, well, usually said theories are tossed out along with the crack-pots so-called scientific career.

I think you need to reread my last post. I said Medicare and Medicaid were not obligations of the government. Therefore they are not debts as you and your friend Kolikoff have claimed. They are government programs that the government can change at any time. Benefits can be reduced or eliminated at any time or increased at any time.
Well, isn't that interesting? What? Did someone on MSNBC tell you it was time to kick granny to the curb? That's the thing I find the most interesting about Social Progressives, just how quick they'll turn right around and toss Grandma to the wolves. You'll never actually find "Greedy Capitalists" harming people, because they make money by trading with them. Not Progressives. They make their money off pointing a gun in someone's face and screaming "Social Good!" "Social Good!" which is why the Progressive Socialists who run Communist countries were (and are) some of the biggest mass murdering sociopaths to walk the earth.

WSJ
For the year ending Dec. 31, 2011, the annual accrued expense of Medicare and Social Security was $7 trillion. Nothing like that figure is used in calculating the deficit. In reality, the reported budget deficit is less than one-fifth of the more accurate figure. Why haven't Americans heard about the titanic $86.8 trillion liability from these programs? One reason: The actual figures do not appear in black and white on any balance sheet. But it is possible to discover them. Included in the annual Medicare Trustees' report are separate actuarial estimates of the unfunded liability for Medicare Part A (the hospital portion), Part B (medical insurance) and Part D (prescription drug coverage).​

You are a little slow Michael. Europe has been in an economic slump because they went down the path you have been and continue to advocate, austerity. Europe has recognized your way doesn’t work and is taking remedial actions similar to what we did in the US. Japan just elected a progressive government because your way didn’t work and intends to use some good old fashioned Keynesian stimulus to get their economy back on track. And that is why Japan has been in rally mode since the Japanese recent election.
lol....Europe finally promised one Turkey too many.

AS for Japan, I'm surprised they haven't erected a statue of Keynes in their Parliament. They are the example of what happens when you follow 25 years of progressive socialism. Unlike us, they have a deep culture shared by everyone. So, when times were tough, they pull together. They have a sense of shared burden. I know many Japanese who simply say they'll work until they die and never get a retirement. But, that's the way life is.


I'm hoping we Americans do things our way... lets see how the Bankers like a the view of a hungry mob with pitchforks and fire :)
 
Michael, Joe is correct, in principle, that Medicare and Social Security*, etc. are government programs that have done little to dissuade (just the opposite SS has done)* the voting population from believing that they are promise of future nearly fixed future benefits and thus obligations of the government. Unfortunately it is highly probable that the officials these voters elect will fail to show the leadership needed to allow the government to pay these expected benefits (in terms of purchasing power expected) due to: (1) the natural desire of elected officials wanting to be re-elected & (2) the increasing ratio of the number of people expecting the benefits to the number of workers paying taxes to support these programs.

One way or another, the real purchasing power of the future benefits WILL be reduced (it is a simple math fact). I think most probably, that will be by continued decrease in the value of the dollar, so the politician can tell the new retires that they are getting back more than they paid in, as I have by a large factor in nominal terms and two or three times in purchasing power. - I.e. like all early joiners of any Ponsi plan, who start to collect while the contributions are still growing, these government programs have been a real purchasing power benefit to me. (I have reached "old age" and made my contributions back when they were much lower than now are collected.)

I do note however, that just listing the total dollars expected - the "unfunded debt” - is silly as (1) the real benefits WILL be reduced & (2) there will be some still contributing to the system, paying part of the implied obligation. The "unfunded debt" is not the US´s main problem. That problem is that a decreasing fraction of the current expenses is being lent to the US so an increasing fraction is simple provided by Fed / Treasury´s dollar printing presses - I.e. the Fed now buys between 80 and 90% of all Treasury´s newly issued bonds, and this makes the private investors in Treasury paper either (1) decrease in number with current low interest rates OR (2) demand higher interest rates or a combination of these two.

Most likely, and it is currently happening, the Fed will allow interest rates to rise as slowly as it can** so that there still are some private buyers of Treasury paper. If even the interest on the already existing debt must be paid by thin-air, freshly printed dollars, then the dollar is headed for hyper-inflation - like Zimbabwe had when it paid the interest on its debt with freshly printed dollars.

* Social Security Administration will even estimate for you how much, to the penny, YOUR S.S. payments will be years before you retire and falsely, it will turn out, tells that is their purchasing power as payments are adjusted by the CPI!

**Too rapid a rise in interest rates throws the economy quickly into depression, which is coming in a few years anyway, but the Fed and Treasury, like the elected officials, prefer to kick the can down the road, even though the net effect of that is to make the problem worse in the end. Tomorrow eve, Obama will tell us that everything is getting better – that should be an interesting fictional story to hear.
 
And I was trying to remind you that being an obscure political figure says nothing about the validity of ones argument. Hold an unpopular view likewise. Example, thinking the world was FLAT was very common 2000 years ago, and yet it wasn't now was it. The World was round even if the only person who held that view was some obscure Roman plebeian whose name was lost to the pages of history.

No you are obfuscating. There is nothing wrong with unconventional thinking as long as you can back it up with reason and evidence which is something you and Kotlikoff have not been able to do. When you have to start making stuff up and redefining the language and ignoring evidence, as you do then your unconventional thinking becomes delusion.

Here is another point you are missing, Bernanke has more credibility than Kotlikoff because Bernanke does not have a political agenda as does Mr. Kotlikoff. Further, Bernanke’s livelihood is dependent only on his performance as Fed Chairman and not on pushing books and other political material as is Mr. Kotlikoff.

YOU'RE the one with the case of Alpha Chimp syndrome. Somehow you have it in your head Bernanke and Greenspan have a clue as to how to fix the economy because both were elevated to the position of Federal Chairman.

Aside from the ad hominem, say what?

Well, guess what Joe. The FACT is this economy was driving off the edge of a cliff thanks to those two and they had NO CLUE. This is a simple fact of history. Anyone can read the Fed's meeting minutes. They ALL think the economy was prefectly fine, right up until a few months before the stock market crashed. And THESE are the same idiots you think are going to get us out? The same people who got us into this mess? Please, it's quite clear they bailed out their buddies in the top 1% and have been hoping all the little cogs wouldn't notice their lives slowly swirl down the toilet.

The fact is Bernanke and Greenspan had nothing to do with “driving the economy off the edge”. The economy was almost driven off the ledge by a Republican congress and president which deregulated the banking industry and Wall Street and allowed the trading of exceptionally risky derivative securities without recording the associated risk on corporate balance sheets.

I will grant you Bernanke was a little slow in recognizing the problem. But once Bernanke understood the problem, he has acted splendidly. Given the dysfunction of a Republican congress, Bernanke has been the savior of this economy, using monetary policy to cover the short comings in fiscal policy. And here is the rub; none of the people you cite saw the problem either. There is only one celebrity of note who predicted the problem with derivative securities and that was Warren Buffet (multibillionaire investor and Keynesian).

And as been pointed out to you numerous times, the only people bailed out in this crisis were the American people. But you are never one to let fact get in the way of your ideology. The reason government financing (i.e. bailouts) was needed is because the financial markets stopped working. Businesses could not go to banks or to Wall Street for the capital they needed to stay in business. And most of the so called “bailout money” has been paid back to the government with interest and capital gains. The government has made hundreds of billions on its “bailout investments” in the US economy. But those are one of the many facts you like to ignore in order to cling to your political ideology.

In "REAL" science when your models can't predict the biggest economic disasters in a century, when it's right in front of your face, well, usually said theories are tossed out along with the crack-pots so-called scientific career.

Economic models don’t predict fraud; they were never intended to predict crime or other abhorrent behaviors. Macroeconomic models don’t predict misrepresentation of data. Economists don’t have crystal balls that tell them credit rating agencies are going to erroneously rate securities. Economists don’t have “Minority Report” type psychics that tell them of future criminal or tortious actions before they occur. Therefore the economic models were not wrong.

Well, isn't that interesting? What? Did someone on MSNBC tell you it was time to kick granny to the curb? That's the thing I find the most interesting about Social Progressives, just how quick they'll turn right around and toss Grandma to the wolves. You'll never actually find "Greedy Capitalists" harming people, because they make money by trading with them. Not Progressives. They make their money off pointing a gun in someone's face and screaming "Social Good!" "Social Good!" which is why the Progressive Socialists who run Communist countries were (and are) some of the biggest mass murdering sociopaths to walk the earth.
lol....Europe finally promised one Turkey too many.

AS for Japan, I'm surprised they haven't erected a statue of Keynes in their Parliament. They are the example of what happens when you follow 25 years of progressive socialism. Unlike us, they have a deep culture shared by everyone. So, when times were tough, they pull together. They have a sense of shared burden. I know many Japanese who simply say they'll work until they die and never get a retirement. But, that's the way life is.

That is all nonsense and it doesn’t change the fact that Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid are not debts as you and Kotlikoff have stated. They are entitlements enacted by congress and can be changed at any time, so for Kotlikoff to misrepresent them as debt as he has done, really blasts a big hole in his credibility.

I find your new found concern for granny rather amazing. You have wanted to throw both her and grandpa on the streets now for years. As I have told you before, healthcare financing is a big problem in this country. We are paying twice what other industrial countries pay for healthcare and those countries cover all their citizens and get better care to boot. Those countries clearly demonstrate that there is plenty of room for improving the US healthcare system and making it much less expensive while improving the quality of care. And Obamacare is an attempt to address that issue. And it is something that Kotlikoff ignores; it is like ignoring the freight train that is bearing down on your position.

I'm hoping we Americans do things our way... lets see how the Bankers like a the view of a hungry mob with pitchforks and fire :)

Americans are not doing things your way – thank God. And as a result our economy is in recovery and has been for the last 3 years. And we have taken action to mitigate our long term healthcare costs which even now in the early stages is bearing fruit.

Let me paint you a real world example, this one from Australia. An obese patient has a heart attack, patient uses the "Universal" healthcare. He doesn't do shit to change his diet and lifestyle. He has a second heart attack. He access his "Universal" Healthcare. He does nothing to change his diet and lifestyle. He has a third heart attack. At this point my friend told him he needed to diet. Do you know what he told her? To go F*ck herself. He 'Pays his Tax'. Her job is to fix him. He'll damn well eat what he likes to eat.

So? Do you understand that when there's no cost incentive people like this person suck out MILLIONS of dollars. This means that local schools, local parks, all those other 'Public' institutions are with LESS. Any of this making any sense to you Joe? Probably not because in Joe's world there's no such thing as limited resources. The sky's the limit. Dig holes and fill them in! That'll get those 'Animal Spirits' going....

No Joe. A comparison is just that - a comparison. You can either agree with parts of it or do not agree. What it isn't is a 'Lie'. A lie is a statement. Two completely different things.

That is hogwash Michael. You are doing your usual manure dump and creating more straw man arguments. No one is claiming that resources are unlimited. What is being said with respect to healthcare is that resources need to be better allocated. Our current system of allocating healthcare resources is sorely lacking. When other industrial countries can do twice as much and do it better and with half the resources as is the case; that says there are many opportunities for improvement in the US healthcare system. Obamacare is a first stab at making the US healthcare system more efficient and effective like those systems found in other industrial countries. You and Kotlikoff ignore those facts in order to push your political agendas. The US healthcare problem must be addressed regardless of the Medicaid and Medicare issues. Healthcare expenses currently account for 18% of GDP, if it is allowed to grow at historical rates, it will soon be more than 25% and it will impact our ability to generate domestic jobs. This has nothing to do with personal health habits. It has everything to do with how healthcare resources are allocated in our society.

As for your commentary on comparisons, you can say what you want, but it doesn’t make it true. You and Kotlikoff are making apples to oranges comparisons in comparing the US to Greece in order to create a false analogy. And that Michael is either dishonest or ignorant.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apples_and_oranges
 
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http://news.yahoo.com/many-americans-believe-recession-permanent-162723475.html said:
Great Recession's scope and impact was so widespread and corrosive that it has left millions of Americans permanently damaged financially, a new study finds. The research from the John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development at Rutgers University found that five years after the country's economic downturn started, 60 percent of U.S. residents think the nation's economy has undergone a permanent change.

More than half of those surveyed think it will take at least six years for the economy to fully recover from the Great Recession, with 29 percent believing it will never hit the levels it reached before the recession. "After suffering through the worst economic disaster American workers have ever experienced, they are deeply pessimistic," said Rutgers professor Carl Van Horn. "Five years of economic misery have profoundly diminished Americans’ confidence in the economy and their outlook for the next generation."

Nearly three-quarters of those surveyed either lost a job themselves, or had a member of their household, close relative or friend lose a job at some point in the past four years. Among those who did find themselves out of work, more than half cut back on medical treatments or doctor visits, while 40 percent were forced to borrow money from family or friends, the research found. In addition, more than 20 percent have been treated professionally for stress or depression.

Overall, more than half of those surveyed said they have less money in savings today than before the recession began, including 38 percent who say they have a lot less in savings. One of the study's co-authors, professor Cliff Zukin, said it is younger Americans, having come out of high school and college into an overcrowded job market, who may be affected the greatest.
Not much new, just better documented than I have done.
 
Skip top confusing graph and focus on clear trends shown in second. (can´t post it alone)
20130206-food-stamps.jpg
From 4 Feb13 issue of Bloomberg Briefs.
This eve Obama will tells us everything is getting better.
 
0213-RunawayDebt.jpg
Graph is speculating quite far ahead.
I think the flat section (from 2013 end till 2017 start) is pure fiction - It should be climbing steeply as in post 2008 part of graph as I think many will still be losing jobs, paying less taxes and also US corporations will be paying less (due to losing market share in Asia, etc. were most of their current profits come from) so also giving less revenue to government with ever increasing expenses (food stamps, medical costs, QE4, etc. all growing government costs) and with a stagnate GDP but a still climbing debt, the curve should be steeply clibming, not flat, these three years.
I hope I´m wrong, but how Congress responds to large problems of next couple months may give a clue. They are good, only at "can kicking" it seems.
 
12 days to go and no can kicking deal yet in sight:
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57570191/will-sequestration-really-be-that-bad/ said:
In addition to forcing reductions of 13 percent for defense programs and 9 percent for other programs, the White House Budget Office reports sequestration would also mean, among other things, reduced unemployment benefits for over 3.8 million people jobless for six months or longer; 70,000 Head Start students removed from the pre-kindergarten program; layoffs of 10,000 teachers and other school staffers; and fewer border security agents and facilities for detained illegal immigrants.
 
Post 574 corrected:
2 days to go and no can kicking deal yet in sight:
Andrew Jackson knew who the government, wall street and bankers working together would hurt. He said:

"It is to be regretted that the rich and powerful too often bend the acts of government to their selfish purposes... artificial distinctions, to grant titles, gratuities, and exclusive privileges, to make the rich richer and the potent more powerful, the humble members of society - the farmers, mechanics, and laborers - who have neither the time nor the means of securing like favors to themselves, have a right to complain of the injustice of their Government."

Here is how our 16 trillion debt got started and the banks continue to profit from Fed´s creation, in them, of cheap money the banks safely invest in Treasury bonds, instead of lend to business etc. that may not pay it back:
http://moneymorning.com/2013/02/26/what-you-absolutely-need-to-know-about-money-part-three/#sthash.mSTXBgZz.dpuf said:
By the end of the Civil War, over $432 million worth of greenbacks had been issued, but much more was needed - immediately. So, in 1863 Congress passed the National Banking Act. While it was well and good to issue greenbacks with no real backing but the government's promises, Lincoln and Chase were fearful that, if the war continued to go badly for the North, the public would lose faith in greenbacks.

The National Banking Act chartered "national" banks across the Union under Washington's regulatory oversight. The new scheme was based on old, familiar ways - with a twist. The new national or "federal" banks, with the presumed backing of Washington, would create a market for the bonds that the Union desperately needed to issue. Banks bought government bonds - with whatever depositor monies they had - and deposited those same bonds back with the Treasury as "reserves." The Treasury then issued banknotes - against those reserves - to the various banks, with their name on the new notes. In essence, the banks got more money back from the government by buying more of their bonds, now with their new bank notes.

In fact, the scheme is still going on today, only to an infinitely larger degree. Banks buy Treasurys and use those government-backed bonds as reserves, in lieu of cash reserves. They use their massive holdings of Treasurys as "risk-free" collateral against loans of cash, from the Fed and other bank, which they use to buy more Treasurys - always to create more money to lend, against which they collect interest. ...
Of course foolish voters wanting benefits NOW, with the bills sent to their grandchildren, elected Congress that would do their bidding.
That helped make the current mess and coming depression too.

In the next presidential election, I think I´ll vote for Andrew - Even dead 100+ years, he would be better that the ones we have been electing! AFAIK, there is no constitutional requirment that the president be living. Andrew certainly meets the age and native born requirements.

PS the reason why TARP, and all the QEs have made so little stimulation of the real economy is that this thin-air money just flows around in the circle descibed above. (In several prior post I have called it the "great circle jerk.") It does INDIRECTLY make a small stimulus by the "wealth effect." I.e. stock prices rise in nominal terms (but not in real long term values) and people thinking they are better off spend more freely. They will learn they were not, when the recesion returns.
 
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In addition to forcing reductions of 13 percent for defense programs and 9 percent for other programs, the White House Budget Office reports sequestration would also mean, among other things, reduced unemployment benefits for over 3.8 million people jobless for six months or longer; 70,000 Head Start students removed from the pre-kindergarten program; layoffs of 10,000 teachers and other school staffers; and fewer border security agents and facilities for detained illegal immigrants.

The thing I don't understand is why don't various departments slice fat instead of needed services? Why is incompetence and waste considered so important, such that critical services go first? We will cut Head Start teachers but leave extra administrators who nothing for the little children in terms of direct involvement. We could reduce the number of chiefs and keep more braves but waste is protected. Does this have anything to do with corruption?
 
The thing I don't understand is why don't various departments slice fat instead of needed services? Why is incompetence and waste considered so important, such that critical services go first? We will cut Head Start teachers but leave extra administrators who nothing for the little children in terms of direct involvement. We could reduce the number of chiefs and keep more braves but waste is protected. Does this have anything to do with corruption?

In the case of the Pentagon, there is easily identifiable unnecessary spending. Congress is and has forced the Pentagon to purchase weapons that are essentially useless and it does not want. Why, because of self-interest and corruption in Congress. When Republicans passed Medicare Part D a decade ago, they loaded it with very expensive special interest legislation. For example, Medicare Part D will pay much more for the same drug purchased by the Veterans Administration. Why, because Republicans are rewarding a special interest. And funny, Republicans for all their bravado and drama on fiscal austerity are not suggesting eliminating unwanted and unneeded weapons programs, nor are they suggesting eliminating the pork they put into Medicare Part D.

Don’t expect Congress to change if we don’t change the way we elect our representatives in Washington (e.g. public financing of elections). There is a lot of legal money being spent to influence legislation at the expense of the average Joe and Jane.
 
The thing I don't understand is why don't various departments slice fat instead of needed services?

Because they have been "slicing fat" for 200 years. At some point you can't slice any more. You have to fire people who are doing good jobs.

Why is incompetence and waste considered so important, such that critical services go first?

It's not.

We will cut Head Start teachers but leave extra administrators who nothing for the little children in terms of direct involvement. We could reduce the number of chiefs and keep more braves but waste is protected.

Right. Then we wouldn't have curriculums for the teachers to use. We wouldn't have books, or school buildings, or heat in the winter. We'd have filthy schools with toilets that don't work. Because all those "useless extra administrators" are doing useless things like keeping the heaters working, paying the gas bills, hiring janitors and buying the books.

There's a persistent myth that we could cut billions if people would just cut all the obvious useless government waste out. This myth is believed primarily by people who don't have to live with the results of haphazard spending cuts.
 
There is no indication that there is a lot of “fat’ in the Head Start Program. The average Head Start teacher makes 21k per year and the program has 6 volunteers for every paid staff member. The Head Start budget is relatively small compared to other federal programs.

And here is the kicker; these spending reductions do nothing to fix our long term fiscal problems. In fact they make it worse by increasing unemployment. Our problem is the long term growth of Medicare and Medicaid and other federally funded healthcare programs. That and defense spending is where the real money is in the federal budget. The real problem is runaway healthcare costs. Are we going to toss the grannies of the land off the cliff when they get ill or are we going to deal with the problem rationally, like every other developed country has done? Obamacare is an attempt to get those costs under control.

There is much in Obamacare that reduces healthcare costs, but given the extraordinarily conservative approach used by the CBO, those reductions are not recognized in federal spending forecasts.
 
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