There is no a priori ability to calculate the odds. Hence, to calculate a probability that is the best approximation to the actual outcome results in a 50/50 chance. Performing the experiment will after-the-fact determine whether the actual result should have been 0% or 100% (though at 100% we won't be around to talk about it).
Read through the references, and you'll see others conclude the 50/50 probability (which they did independently of my analysis).
I especially found interesting the 36-page anonymous article at:
http://www.risk-evaluation-forum.org/anon2.htm
that discusses the mini-black-hole scenario.
As I wrote in 1999 in SA, my calculations showed that risk to be zero, though my calculations might be wrong. Others asserted that it was impossible to create a mini-black-hole. Months later, theorists began predicting the possibility of creating various types of mini-black-holes. I relied upon Hawking Radiation (HR) to be a reality, though it has never been proven, in performing those calculations. Apparently since then, the idea of creating a mini-black-hole has blossomed, and so too has the questioning of the reality of HR, leaving the potential for risk from mini-black-holes.
The other main risk is, IMO, from strangelets, whether they be negative, neutral, or positive (as I've discussed extensively elsewhere in earlier posts in this thread). As for mini-black-holes, the cosmic-ray argument fails to disprove various potentially disastrous strangelet scenarios. Recent RHIC results now tend to support the potential for such scenarios.
Read through the references, and you'll see others conclude the 50/50 probability (which they did independently of my analysis).
I especially found interesting the 36-page anonymous article at:
http://www.risk-evaluation-forum.org/anon2.htm
that discusses the mini-black-hole scenario.
As I wrote in 1999 in SA, my calculations showed that risk to be zero, though my calculations might be wrong. Others asserted that it was impossible to create a mini-black-hole. Months later, theorists began predicting the possibility of creating various types of mini-black-holes. I relied upon Hawking Radiation (HR) to be a reality, though it has never been proven, in performing those calculations. Apparently since then, the idea of creating a mini-black-hole has blossomed, and so too has the questioning of the reality of HR, leaving the potential for risk from mini-black-holes.
The other main risk is, IMO, from strangelets, whether they be negative, neutral, or positive (as I've discussed extensively elsewhere in earlier posts in this thread). As for mini-black-holes, the cosmic-ray argument fails to disprove various potentially disastrous strangelet scenarios. Recent RHIC results now tend to support the potential for such scenarios.