This thread is a test of our members' predictive abilities.
It is open to all members of sciforums who believe they can predict future events. So, if you have psychic powers, or premonitions, or you can predict using crystal power, astrology, numerology, tea leaf reading, or whatever, please join in!
All you have to do is to post predictions here. After the appointed dates for the predictions, we will determine whether any of them have come true.
To restrict the length of time that this thread runs for, and to try to make this a test which requires more than mere guesswork, here are the ground rules:
1. All predictions posted in the thread must refer to events which will occur prior to 1 December, 2004.
2. Each prediction will be given a preliminary score based on how specific it is. To calculate the preliminary score, please use the following list:
(a) Each person specifically named - 1 point.
(b) Each location specifically identified - 1 point.
(c) Each detail of the event referred to specifically - 1 point.
(d) The event is specified to the (i) month - 1 point (ii) week - 2 points (iii) day - 3 points.
(e) Points will not be allocated if any of the above is pre-planned and information is freely available on the internet at the time the prediction is made.
Examples:
"The pope will die on 13 October."
Naming the person, the event (death) and the time to the day - 5 points.
"John Kerry will give a speech on 13 October in city x where he will speak against the re-election of George Bush."
Kerry's schedule is known, so no points for location or date. 1 point for specifying the content of the speech.
"An earthquake will occur somewhere on Earth before 1 December."
1 point for identifying an event.
"A new computer virus will be discovered by mcafee.com tomorrow."
Identifying a company and an event, to the day - 5 points.
"Queen Elizabeth will trip over on a staircase tomorrow at Windsor Castle because it will be slippery due to having just been cleaned, and will bruise her left knee."
Named the Queen - 1. To the day - 3. specifics of the event: tripping - 1, bruising - 1, knee - 1, left knee - 1, slippery floor - 1, cleaning - 1. Total: 10 points.
3. Members may, at any time before the appointed time of the prediction, assign a difficulty rating to the prediction, scored as follows, according to their own judgment:
(a) Prediction is almost certain to come true - 1 point
(b) Prediction is more likely than not to happen - 2 points
(c) Prediction is as likely as not to happen - 3 points
(d) Prediction, on the face of it, is unlikely to occur as specified - 4 points
(e) It would be amazing if the prediction occurred exactly as specified - 10 points.
The large point value for situation (e) is to encourage people to be specific.
4. The judge (me) will consider all member submissions on difficulty level for each prediction and assign an averaged difficulty rating score to each prediction, preferably to be announced prior to the date of the prediction.
5. After the date for the prediction has passed, the prediction will be given a final score as follows:
(a) Unless ALL of the details in the prediction are correct, the prediction will be scored ZERO.
For example, in my example with the Queen, if everything was correct except that the bruise was on the right knee instead of the left, the prediction would score ZERO.
The lesson from this: if you're not sure of the specifics, leave them out. A more specific prediction will get a greater score if you're right, but if you're wrong it will score zero.
(b) If ALL details of the prediction are correct, the final score will be the preliminary score multiplied by the difficulty rating.
Examples:
John Kerry's speech - Preliminary score 1. Difficulty rating 1. Final score (if it comes true) = 1
Computer virus - Prelim. score 5. Difficulty 1. Final score (if true) = 5.
The Queen - Prelim. score 10. Difficulty 10. Final score (if true) = 100.
6. It must be possible to determine whether a prediction has come true by referring to information available on the internet. People making predictions are encouraged to provide a link verifying that their prediction has come true, after it happens. Of course, heavily-reported events which are common knowledge will be accepted without specific proof.
So, if the Queen bruises her knee and nobody knows about it, tough luck.
7. The judge's decision on scores is final.
8. After 1 December, the title of sciforums Nostradamus will be bestowed on whoever has the highest aggregate score.
Let the games begin!
It is open to all members of sciforums who believe they can predict future events. So, if you have psychic powers, or premonitions, or you can predict using crystal power, astrology, numerology, tea leaf reading, or whatever, please join in!
All you have to do is to post predictions here. After the appointed dates for the predictions, we will determine whether any of them have come true.
To restrict the length of time that this thread runs for, and to try to make this a test which requires more than mere guesswork, here are the ground rules:
1. All predictions posted in the thread must refer to events which will occur prior to 1 December, 2004.
2. Each prediction will be given a preliminary score based on how specific it is. To calculate the preliminary score, please use the following list:
(a) Each person specifically named - 1 point.
(b) Each location specifically identified - 1 point.
(c) Each detail of the event referred to specifically - 1 point.
(d) The event is specified to the (i) month - 1 point (ii) week - 2 points (iii) day - 3 points.
(e) Points will not be allocated if any of the above is pre-planned and information is freely available on the internet at the time the prediction is made.
Examples:
"The pope will die on 13 October."
Naming the person, the event (death) and the time to the day - 5 points.
"John Kerry will give a speech on 13 October in city x where he will speak against the re-election of George Bush."
Kerry's schedule is known, so no points for location or date. 1 point for specifying the content of the speech.
"An earthquake will occur somewhere on Earth before 1 December."
1 point for identifying an event.
"A new computer virus will be discovered by mcafee.com tomorrow."
Identifying a company and an event, to the day - 5 points.
"Queen Elizabeth will trip over on a staircase tomorrow at Windsor Castle because it will be slippery due to having just been cleaned, and will bruise her left knee."
Named the Queen - 1. To the day - 3. specifics of the event: tripping - 1, bruising - 1, knee - 1, left knee - 1, slippery floor - 1, cleaning - 1. Total: 10 points.
3. Members may, at any time before the appointed time of the prediction, assign a difficulty rating to the prediction, scored as follows, according to their own judgment:
(a) Prediction is almost certain to come true - 1 point
(b) Prediction is more likely than not to happen - 2 points
(c) Prediction is as likely as not to happen - 3 points
(d) Prediction, on the face of it, is unlikely to occur as specified - 4 points
(e) It would be amazing if the prediction occurred exactly as specified - 10 points.
The large point value for situation (e) is to encourage people to be specific.
4. The judge (me) will consider all member submissions on difficulty level for each prediction and assign an averaged difficulty rating score to each prediction, preferably to be announced prior to the date of the prediction.
5. After the date for the prediction has passed, the prediction will be given a final score as follows:
(a) Unless ALL of the details in the prediction are correct, the prediction will be scored ZERO.
For example, in my example with the Queen, if everything was correct except that the bruise was on the right knee instead of the left, the prediction would score ZERO.
The lesson from this: if you're not sure of the specifics, leave them out. A more specific prediction will get a greater score if you're right, but if you're wrong it will score zero.
(b) If ALL details of the prediction are correct, the final score will be the preliminary score multiplied by the difficulty rating.
Examples:
John Kerry's speech - Preliminary score 1. Difficulty rating 1. Final score (if it comes true) = 1
Computer virus - Prelim. score 5. Difficulty 1. Final score (if true) = 5.
The Queen - Prelim. score 10. Difficulty 10. Final score (if true) = 100.
6. It must be possible to determine whether a prediction has come true by referring to information available on the internet. People making predictions are encouraged to provide a link verifying that their prediction has come true, after it happens. Of course, heavily-reported events which are common knowledge will be accepted without specific proof.
So, if the Queen bruises her knee and nobody knows about it, tough luck.
7. The judge's decision on scores is final.
8. After 1 December, the title of sciforums Nostradamus will be bestowed on whoever has the highest aggregate score.
Let the games begin!
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