Putin's invasion of Ukraine

Saint said:
When will Russia invade?
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Perhaps:
Within 2 days?
Russian and Belarusian joint military exercises are scheduled to end on the 20th, February.
If they come from Belarus, main battle tanks could be in Kiev in less than 2 hours without having to cross the
Dnieper.
or
Perhaps:
It ain't gonna happen?

If
Russia's concern is security
Then
It would make sense for Russia to seize the land south of a line between Zaporizhzya and Donetsk,
effectively turning the sea of Azov into a Russian lake. Using ships, the Russians have already blocked off access to the sea of Azov to nato warships.
but
Taking the land seems unlikely?
 
What if Russia invades and with Ukraine getting no support defends itself? How would Russia look?

The US knows it's easy to start wars that it can't always win.

:EDIT:

Aside
 
candy said:
Never. Putin should stop his territorial avarice. The people of Ukraine deserve the right of self-determination.
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Do you think ,despite Putin's apparent predilection for nationalistic self aggrandisment that this has a lot to do with the perennial attempts in many countries to shore up approval ratings at home with hopeful successes abroad?(and perhaps deflect from failures at home)

Is his nationalism (like, I suspect his religiosity) just skin deep and does he fundamentally share in the sincere Narcissism as exemplified by our own Dear Donald?

Edit:maybe someone should short circuit Saint's battery compartment and do us all a favour.
 
geordief said:
Do you think ,despite Putin's apparent predilection for nationalistic self aggrandisment that this has a lot to do with the perennial attempts in many countries to shore up approval ratings at home with hopeful successes abroad?(and perhaps deflect from failures at home)

Is his nationalism (like, I suspect his religiosity) just skin deep and does he fundamentally share in the sincere Narcissism as exemplified by our own Dear Donald?

Edit:maybe someone should short circuit Saint's battery compartment and do us all a favour.
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One of the many ironies of his desire to keep NATO away is that by occupying Ukraine he would place NATO on his door step. At the moment Ukraine is keeping NATO away.
 
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Quantum Quack said:
One of the many ironies of his desire to keep NATO away is that by occupying Ukraine he would place NATO on his door step. At the moment Ukraine is keeping NATO away.
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That hadn't occurred to me.

Putin the NovoSysiphus?

Come on ,one more heave for the Great Leader
 
Many Ukraine's people wanna belong to Russia,
it is Russia's responsibility to protect her own people in Ukraine.
Halleluyah to Putin. :)
 
Saint said:
Many Ukraine's people wanna belong to Russia...
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How many? What proportion of the population? Where are you getting this information?
it is Russia's responsibility to protect her own people in Ukraine.
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No.

Russians who are visiting the Ukraine are subject to Ukrainian law, not to Russian law, while they are in Ukraine.

Ukrainians who would prefer to live in Russia are free to move there, are they not? Surely if Putin wants the people of Ukraine so much, he can accommodate them. He doesn't need to take over the actual nation.

Besides, if a majority of the Ukrainian people really wanted Ukraine to become a vassal state of Russia again, they would be free to vote for just that. Ukraine is a democracy.
 
Saint said:
Many Ukraine's people wanna belong to Russia,
it is Russia's responsibility to protect her own people in Ukraine.
Halleluyah to Putin. :)
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Those people can put it to a vote for independence.

Like Quebec did in Canada.
 
Beer w/Straw said:
Ukraine president said there may not have to be a war and he may be right.


https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/22/investing/russia-markets-ruble-economy/index.html

Can Russia even benefit Ukraine economically more than the West anyway?
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For Putin/Russia it may be a case that having the geopolitical buffer that an "independent" state (of the two Ukraine regions) provides is worth a significant downturn in their economy. Bear in mind that Putin has an iron grip on power, and he's not exactly going to suffer financially, in that if he has USD 100 billion fortune then even losing 99% of it still leaves him with USD 1 billion.
His people will suffer, which means he can continue to paint the West as the enemy for hurting them... while he and his cronies live in continued luxury... and he'll tighten his grip on power even more.

That's the problem with sanctions: it generally hurts the general public far more than any others, as the rulers of such countries usually have the financial means to weather any storm. During which time Putin will continue to paint the West as the enemy hurting his people.

How long will any sanctions last? Will they really have any effect in the short or long term?
And if the West beats down Russia's economy, does that not merely fuel their aggression and, in the long-term, make conflict more likely? You can certainly expect more cyber attacks on the West's infrastructure etc.
 
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