Oil Reserves in the U.S. Upped

[Syzygys]

Crunching the numbers:

After discovering all those 77 elephants (sounds like the Crocodile hunter) here we go, and going to have 12.5 million barrels per day MISSING oilproduction between demand and supply by 2015:

"The Paris-based International Energy Agency is in the middle of its first attempt to comprehensively assess the condition of the world's top 400 oil fields. Its findings won't be released until November, but the bottom line is already clear: Future crude supplies could be far tighter than previously thought."

"For several years, the IEA has predicted that supplies of crude and other liquid fuels will arc gently upward to keep pace with rising demand, topping 116 million barrels a day by 2030, up from around 87 million barrels a day currently. Now, the agency is worried that aging oil fields and diminished investment mean that companies could struggle to surpass 100 million barrels a day over the next two decades."

They are still overestimating it, because I don't expect it to surpass the 90 million (all kind of oil), or if we do only by a little...

Hey, I even found a line for BR:

"Some analysts, however, contend that scarcity isn't the issue -- only access to reserves and investment in tapping them. "We know there is plenty of oil and gas resource in the world," says Pete Stark, vice president for industry relations at IHS. He says the difficulties of supply aren't buried in oil fields, but are "above ground."

I can agree with that too...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121139527250011387.html?mod=hps_us_whats_news

 

[Buffalo Roam]

You do realize I stopped reading your lengthy posts for lack of info value?

Typical Liberal, mind made up, and no new information is needed.

And I guess oil executive couldn't have argued let's say 5 years ago, that: Look, you are going to be in deep shit in a few years UNLESS we can drill everywhere. (actually, even if we drill) And we are going to make money no matter what, but we won't be the scapegoat, because we warned you now!

Well guess what? they did, and nobody listened.

The cut off of oil exploration started in the 1970's, the drop in drilling capacity started in the 1970's, we started to depend on foreign oil in the 1970's not our own resources, and we are paying at the pump for the alliance between the democrats and the environmentalist that stopped all nuclear development and 90% of the oil development over the last 40 years.

I don't remember them saying this back in 2002, do you??? 5 years ago all what they said was that peak oil is myth and we have shitload of oil anough for 100s of years...

Nobody listened, congress, the democrats blocked the expansion in in drilling, it was the Democrats who stopped the drilling in ANWAR, off the Florida Coast, stop any suggestion of re-opening the California Coast, and they just killed ANWAR drilling again.

And the Chinese are partnering with Cuba to start drilling of the Florida Coast, and take those reserves home to China.

Take Action: Tell the oil companies to stay out of ANWR!
In the end, over 90% of Senate Democrats voted to stop this madness -- we ... If your company decides to drill in ANWR, we will launch a boycott of your ...
http://ga4.org/campaign/boycott

2005.03.22: Stop ANWR Drilling Plans
Mar 22, 2005 ... "Like 2004 presidential candidate John Kerry, many Democrats who voted against drilling in the ANWR support increased drilling in other ...
http://www.gp.org/press/pr_2005_03_22.html

Michelle Malkin » ANWR DRILLING: SENATE SHOWDOWN
A filibuster, or endless debate, would stop the Senate from moving to vote on the ... Democrats also are expected to challenge whether the ANWR language is ...
http://michellemalkin.com/2005/12/20/anwr-drilling-senate-showdown/

Democrats.com Archive: ANWR
Senate Democrats Heroically Stop Arctic Drilling 20-Mar-03 ANWR. CNN reports, "Despite intense lobbying by pro-drilling senators and the White House, ...
http://archive.democrats.com/preview.cfm?term=ANWR

Yes, Enviromentalist and Democrats, no new oil.

....The USGS estimates 10 billion barrels of oil might be available there. (LA Times, May 18), but estimates run from 3 billion barrels to 16 billion barrels.

...President Bush in his introduction to the energy report quotes ANWR as being capable of 600,000 barrels a day for 40 years.

...Multiplying this by 365 days for 40 years gives 8.76 billion barrels consistent with the USGS estimate.

...Out of our present daily consumption of 18.9 billion barrels, this would be 3.2%

...New Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle (D-S.D.) has declared ANWR drilling dead on arrival on Capitol Hill. Congress banned drilling in ANWR in 1980 without specific congressional authorization.

We have had the ability to put ANWAR into production since 1980, and the Democrats have blocked and killed every attempt to bring those reserves on line.

 

[Buffalo Roam]

Crunching the numbers:

After discovering all those 77 elephants (sounds like the Crocodile hunter) here we go, and going to have 12.5 million barrels per day MISSING oilproduction between demand and supply by 2015:

"The Paris-based International Energy Agency is in the middle of its first attempt to comprehensively assess the condition of the world's top 400 oil fields. Its findings won't be released until November, but the bottom line is already clear: Future crude supplies could be far tighter than previously thought."

The worlds top 400 oil fields, the new fields aren't even in production so guess what?

They aren't in the report.

"Some analysts, however, contend that scarcity isn't the issue -- only access to reserves and investment in tapping them. "We know there is plenty of oil and gas resource in the world," says Pete Stark, vice president for industry relations at IHS. He says the difficulties of supply aren't buried in oil fields, but are "above ground."

I can agree with that too...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121139527250011387.html?mod=hps_us_whats_news

The analysts who contend that it isn't a shortage problem, are looking at the fact that there are new fields, awaiting drilling rigs, so they can go into production, and that is where the supply problems begin, we are short almost 50% in drilling capacity, the utilization of existing rigs and platforms, is at 95+ percent, there is no extra drilling capacity until we build it, and that take time.

From 1980 to 1983 we lost 71% of our drilling capacity, and we are just now coming back to 50 % of that capacity, and we have been building rigs like crazy, we have at least another 8 year before we can fully replace that capacity.

It doesn't matter how many new finds we have right now, we can't extract the oil because we don't have the drilling rigs because of short sited energy policies from congress.

 

[Buffalo Roam]

You do realize I stopped reading your lengthy posts for lack of info value?

That means to me, that your debating blind, if you don't look at the information that I am presenting, how do you dismiss it out of hand as not being valid? and argue on.

(Would that be considered Flaming?)

You don't read it, just like you don't read anything that doesn't agree with your preconceived politically correct dogma,

And you say I am ill informed?

 

[Syzygys]

Typical Liberal, mind made up, and no new information is needed.

I only have to change my mind when I am wrong, which usually doesn't happen.

Well guess what? they did, and nobody listened.

Quote please. I challenge you on this statement. Did they state that the reason will be oil peaking? I don't think so...

Nobody listened, congress, the democrats blocked

There was a time when Reps were in charge of the Congress. Why didn't they use it?

We have had the ability to put ANWAR into production since 1980, and the Democrats have blocked and killed every attempt to bring those reserves on line.

Again, in 28 years the Republicans never had a president with a Republican house in control so they could have enacted it? Bullshit...

By the way, I am all for drilling in ANWR. A dead caribou is better than an occupation of foreign lands...

Let me explain this whole ANWR thing. As long as oil was under $40 (up to 4 years ago), there wasn't much incentive not even for oil-Republicans to drill there. It is quite an expensive production. And as long as oil was cheap, why would they want to bring extra oil to the market to push price down? So stop blaming Democrates, Republicans didn't have the interest to drill there either. But they should have known that soon enough oilprices will skyrocket.If they didn't they should leave the oil business because they have no business in being there....

 

[Syzygys]

That means to me, that your debating blind, if you don't look at the information that I am presenting,

Well, I looked for 300 posts, but you failed to make any convincing argument, you are bad at crunching numbers, and never acknowledge when we have a point. So really, do you think you can improve for the next 300 posts?

 

[Syzygys]

It doesn't matter how many new finds we have right now, we can't extract the oil because we don't have the drilling rigs because of short sited energy policies from congress.

For the thousands time, it is a WORLD problem, not a US problem. Stop thinking locally, that 12.5 million missing barrel is worldwide. Don't tell me that the whole world is out of rigs....

See, this is a typical argument of yours, showing ignorance and inability to see the bigger picture. Since oil is a worldwide comodity and price is established on markets all over the world, a little extra oil locally won't make the gasprices lower in the US...

 

[ElectricFetus]

ANWAR Oil Production at full capacity would bring the price of oil down by 75 cents per barral!

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/05/eia-anwr-oil-pr.html#more

 

[Syzygys]

I am surprised Oilismastery still hasen't discovered this thread, although he is reviving all threads about oil, so let's throw in education! Article explaining pretty much everything from the British POV:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/may/27/carbonemissions.energy

 

[Buffalo Roam]

Lack of refining capacity is deliberate.

Correct, because the Federal Government, under the Democrats and the environmentalist, and their NIMBY attitude, killed any new expansion of drilling and refining capacity for ecological reasons, and in their effort to force us to these new fuels that still haven't been developed to the point that they can replace oil.

There is no free market reason to mess with an advantageous situation.

Yes there is a free market reason to lower gas prices, it's called a depression,......like when you can't move product to market because you can't afford the transportation,........so stocks of manufactured goods rise,........ and people can't afford to buy new items,....... because they have to spend their budgets just to get to work to feed the family,........... and the price of food skyrocket because the cost of planting goes out of sight because the price of fertilizer to grow the crops skyrockets,............and the price of fuel to plant the crops skyrockets,........and the farmer can't afford the fertilizer and the yields fall,.............sending food prices even higher because there is less food,.............,workers are laid off because there is no one buying the things they produce,...........so the worker now has any money to buy anything...............

Democrats will lower gas prices by reducing demand. They will force ambitious fuel efficiency standards and increase investment in rail and mass transit projects. They will provide tax incentives to encourage investment in efficient appliances, home insulation, possibly solar power.

And until this mythical point is reached how do you keep the economy running to pay for all those new taxes, and rebates?

There is only so much energy in a gallon of gas, no matter what the fuel efficiency standards are, there is no such thing as total conversion.

Reduce demand? how? America runs on highways, we don't have the infrastructure to replace the auto/trucks, as a primary source of transportation and shipping.

And just how long due you expect it to take to build all those new rail systems and new mass transit? a Decade? 2 Decades? Half a Century?, and just what is going to happen to the economy while all this takes place?

We need to drill our own resources, build and rebuild our refining capacity, we need to become less dependent on foreign sources for our energy need, and all that means using our own resources to get to the next level, and unless we maintain our economy its all screwed.

 

[Buffalo Roam]

My eyes! My Eyes hurt!!!

Politicans are idiots, they should be reading my posts, period...They could learn a lot...

Didn't my posts indicate that I was on the executives' side?Now, Bush should have started mitigation policies at least 5 years ago, when oil was still cheap. To see peak oil happening you don't need a harward education, just common sense. One such a guy is the CEO of SouthWest airline, probably the only profitable airline, because they bough a shitload of oil futures thus they are getting their gas for cheap....

Those mitigation policies need to be in place 40 years ago, when oil was even cheaper, how about Clinton? how much oil and coal did he place off limits with executive orders.

Does the name Riady or Lippo Group, ring a bell?

The Utah Coal Lockup: A trillion dollar Lippo payoff?
Monument, his action placed the area off limits to mineral extraction and ... denied -what, they demanded, had Clinton done for Lippo Group, the Riadys, ...
http://www.apfn.org/apfn/lippo.htm

Deceit And Deception - US Dealings in Indonesia
By locking-up the US coal reserves into a national park, Clinton vastly increased the value of Riady's low-sulfur coal reserves in a single stroke of his ...
http://www.converge.org.nz/pma/etdeal.htm

 

[Buffalo Roam]

For the thousands time, it is a WORLD problem, not a US problem. Stop thinking locally, that 12.5 million missing barrel is worldwide. Don't tell me that the whole world is out of rigs....

And how many time have I referenced India, China, and their new markets which are sucking up petroleum by the BBO, and as a world wide problem any new oil would mitigate the short fall,

See, this is a typical argument of yours, showing ignorance and inability to see the bigger picture. Since oil is a worldwide comodity and price is established on markets all over the world, a little extra oil locally won't make the gasprices lower in the US...

Sorry, but as I see it your the one who has decided that he is infallable,

I only have to change my mind when I am wrong, which usually doesn't happen....

What is a (gasprices)?

Again it isn't just a little extra oil, it is billion barrel quantities, and the reason that we can't market it, is because of a screwed energy policy, forwarded by the Democrats and the environmentalist, that killed off Drilling and refining capacity:

Texas Public Policy Foundation - Commentaries
Add the 21.8 bbo proven reserves and 30 bbo off-limits, and the total 2.6 ... former President Bill Clinton vetoed legislation to allow its development. ...
http://www.texaspolicy.com/commentaries_single.php?report_id=1937

U.S. oil production has steadily declined since the 1970s. Over these 35 years, oil exploration, pumping, pipeline infrastructure, and refining have been consistently opposed by the powerful environmentalist establishment … and with great success. It is time to reconsider these constraints on domestic production.

Consider the volumes of U.S. oil resources. The most conservative measure is “proven reserves.” To be proven, it must be reasonably certain that the crude oil can be produced using current technology at current prices, current commercial terms, and with government consent. The U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) estimates the U.S. has 21.8 billion barrels of oil (bbo) in “proven reserves.”

And “recoverable reserves” — known oil resources capable of recovery, but with more cost and technical difficulty than proven reserves — hold several thousand times more. These resources include: light oil in place (293 bbo); heavy oil (81 bbo); oil sands (80 bbo); and the mother lode, oil shale (2,118 bbo). Add the 21.8 bbo proven reserves and 30 bbo off-limits, and the total 2.6 trillion barrel endowment of American oil resources would support U.S. demand for thousands of years.

Unlike Britain, Canada, or Norway, federal decision has barred offshore oil exploration in half the Gulf of Mexico, and off the East and West coasts. The U.S. Department of Interior estimates that these offshore bans cover more than 16 billion barrels.

Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge is considered the largest untapped oil field in North America. Even with elaborate means to preserve wildlife habitats, former President Bill Clinton vetoed legislation to allow its development. Estimates of practically recoverable crude oil there are between 10 and 12 billion barrels.

The 92 million acres of federal lands in the lower 48 states also contain oil resources. Shortly after 9/11, Congress reviewed all energy resources on federal lands. Their study found that only 25 percent of the lands were accessible for oil development. Restrictions precluded access to all but 18 percent of the estimated 4.2 billion barrels of recoverable oil.

 

[Syzygys]

Those mitigation policies need to be in place 40 years ago, when oil was even cheaper, how about Clinton?

If you think I am going to give a freepass to Clinton, you are wrong. each president since carter is guilty, we have known the problem since then. Carter was the only one who said something although he was powerless to do enough and this needs a few decades solution so 1 president can do it all.

Of course during the 90s in the dotcom bubbles and thriving economy and cheap gas it was pretty much impossible to pass legislation on this regard. nevertheless they should have tried.

Now Bush is an oilman and he (or Cheney) should have known what's going on. Their solution was invading Iraq...

 

[Syzygys]

Again it isn't just a little extra oil, it is billion barrel quantities,[/url]

Didn't we agree 10 pages ago that even if the quantity is big, the speed of access is small? Thus the annual gain is a little extra, not sufficient to mitigate the problem...

 

[Buffalo Roam]

Well, I looked for 300 posts, but you failed to make any convincing argument, you are bad at crunching numbers, and never acknowledge when we have a point. So really, do you think you can improve for the next 300 posts?

Yes we see just how logical you are, and just how much logic you have, I haven't made 300 post on this thread, so are you saying that all the numbers quoted in the thread, are to quote you " bad crunching numbers" for you to have looked at three hundred post, you would have to have read your own, and yes, your number crunching leave's a lot to be desired.

As a example:

For the thousands time, it is a WORLD problem, not a US problem. Stop thinking locally, that 12.5 million missing barrel is worldwide. Don't tell me that the whole world is out of rigs.......

Your own statement is that there are 12.5 barrels of oil missing from the market, right?

Well, the U.S. consumes 19.6 million barrels per day, of oil, the shortage of oil in the world is 12.5, if we drilled and produced our own reserves we could drop off the world oil market, and there would be no short fall, and we could be energy independent.

Texas Public Policy Foundation - Commentaries
Add the 21.8 bbo proven reserves and 30 bbo off-limits, and the total 2.6 ... former President Bill Clinton vetoed legislation to allow its development. ...
http://www.texaspolicy.com/commentaries_single.php?report_id=1937

At today’s consumption rates, proven reserves would last 50 years. Yet the amount of proven reserves might jump to more than 50 billion barrels if the government “consented” to development of areas now off-limits.

And “recoverable reserves” — known oil resources capable of recovery, but with more cost and technical difficulty than proven reserves — hold several thousand times more. These resources include: light oil in place (293 bbo); heavy oil (81 bbo); oil sands (80 bbo); and the mother lode, oil shale (2,118 bbo). Add the 21.8 bbo proven reserves and 30 bbo off-limits, and the total 2.6 trillion barrel endowment of American oil resources would support U.S. demand for thousands of years.

 

[Buffalo Roam]

Didn't we agree 10 pages ago that even if the quantity is big, the speed of access is small? Thus the annual gain is a little extra, not sufficient to mitigate the problem...

As I said it isn't a shortage of oil it's a shortage of capacity, and if the congress would let us get to our own oil we could start to get beyond this problem, yes it might take a few years, but isn't' that what has taken place since Carter, we haven't even tried to increase our own production, and that is the problem.

You have to start some time, the problem won't go away, or get smaller, by sitting on your ass doing nothing but BAM.

 

[Buffalo Roam]

Didn't we agree 10 pages ago that even if the quantity is big, the speed of access is small? Thus the annual gain is a little extra, not sufficient to mitigate the problem...

Syzygys, in one of the many jobs I have had, I worked for Joseph Schultz Can Company, we made the cans that the Beer went into, as a example of how things get done here is a little story from those days.

I came into work one day, the scrap aluminum waste duct had broken and was no longer blowing the trim scrapes back to recycling.

The scrap was piling up where the ducts had broken, 8 tons of aluminum scrap, it had to be moved back to recycling to be remelted.

I got the job done in my shift,...how? by just doing it.

I started loading the carts, with a shovel, one shovel at a time, I didn't worry about how far behind I was I just did what was necessary, one shovel at a time, by the end of my shift I had cleaned up the back log of scrap, and was waiting for the system to pile up enough scrap to make the next cart load, the same thing applies to the problems of oil today, if you don't start the job, it will never get done.

The oil is there, all we need to do is build the capacity, and for that Congress and the Environmentalist have to get out of the way.

 

[nirakar]

We should drill Anwar just in time to have it pumping full out for the ten years that have the highest inflation adjusted price for oil in the history of the world. This time will come shortly before oils eventual replacement gets fully ramped up.

Buy low, sell high.

The oil companies want to hurry to drill Anwar because they know they won't have to pay market rate for the oil as us voters do nothing to clean up routine government corruption. The US citizens may crack down on government corruption some time in the future and start demanding market rates for our publicly owned resources.

 

[nirakar]

Anybody know a reason why their should not be as much oil under the sea per square mile of surface as there is above sea level per square mile of surface?

Oil deep under the sea will be expensive to get at, but shouldn't there be more oil below sea level than there was above sea level?

 

[ElectricFetus]

Anybody know a reason why their should not be as much oil under the sea per square mile of surface as there is above sea level per square mile of surface?

Oil deep under the sea will be expensive to get at, but shouldn't there be more oil below sea level than there was above sea level?

Sure, but whats the use if oil still expensive? If the final cost end up being more the alternatives basic economics will kick in to reduce oil production by replacement.