Banshee, pretty uncanny eh?
mind reading experiment
- Thread starter tablariddim
- Start date
Answer: T,H,T,H,H,T
Only 1 out of 6.
Is my cat's name Spot?
Neutrino Albatross, to be honest I've experimented with coins at home and my success rate ranges from 85% down to 50%, 0% and back to 90% on 20 consecutive throws. I'll repeat this to see if I get similar results.
Grasshoppa I say no.
Grasshoppa I say no.
* What make of car do I own:
Ford, Holden, Mazda, Toyota, Subaru or Volkswagon?
* What colour is it:
Red, Blue, Green, White, Black, Yellow or Silver?
* What year did I buy it:
1987, 1990, 1993, 1996, 1999, or 2002?
* What type is it:
Hatchback, Sedan, Station Wagon, or 4-wheel drive?
* An easy one to finish:
Does it have 2 doors or 4?
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The probability of getting all of these right by guessing is 1/2016, helped by the fact that I have given alternatives. Let's see how you go.
Ford, Holden, Mazda, Toyota, Subaru or Volkswagon?
* What colour is it:
Red, Blue, Green, White, Black, Yellow or Silver?
* What year did I buy it:
1987, 1990, 1993, 1996, 1999, or 2002?
* What type is it:
Hatchback, Sedan, Station Wagon, or 4-wheel drive?
* An easy one to finish:
Does it have 2 doors or 4?
-------
The probability of getting all of these right by guessing is 1/2016, helped by the fact that I have given alternatives. Let's see how you go.
JAMES R... Holden, white, '96, sedan, 4.
Well? I'm dying to know how wrong I am.
Well? I'm dying to know how wrong I am.
tablariddim,
For this particular problem, if we took a large group of people and asked them to guess the answers at random, statistically we would expect the following results:
Percentage guessing all 5 correctly: 0.05%
Percentage guessing 4 or more correctly: 1%
Percentage guessing 3 or more correctly: 8.5%
Percentage guessing 2 or more correctly: 35%
Percentage guessing 1 or more correctly: 78%
This puts you in the "top" 8.5% of people attempting this problem by guesswork. Of course, you claim that you aren't guessing.
A one-off trial such as this is not statistically significant in itself. You might have got lucky this time. Alternatively, perhaps the question was not so good, because the answers could be inter-related (e.g. most sedans are 4-door).
For a significant test, you should really attempt the same kind of problem many times and take an average of all your results. The kind of test involving coin flips (as conducted previously) is a good test in this respect, though perhaps you feel your abilities require more variation (?) Would you like to try another one?
For this particular problem, if we took a large group of people and asked them to guess the answers at random, statistically we would expect the following results:
Percentage guessing all 5 correctly: 0.05%
Percentage guessing 4 or more correctly: 1%
Percentage guessing 3 or more correctly: 8.5%
Percentage guessing 2 or more correctly: 35%
Percentage guessing 1 or more correctly: 78%
This puts you in the "top" 8.5% of people attempting this problem by guesswork. Of course, you claim that you aren't guessing.
A one-off trial such as this is not statistically significant in itself. You might have got lucky this time. Alternatively, perhaps the question was not so good, because the answers could be inter-related (e.g. most sedans are 4-door).
For a significant test, you should really attempt the same kind of problem many times and take an average of all your results. The kind of test involving coin flips (as conducted previously) is a good test in this respect, though perhaps you feel your abilities require more variation (?) Would you like to try another one?
So did I get 3 or 4 correct? Which ones?
50% correct out of 26 odd choices is not bad but not uncanny. Is your math correct? 6 out of 26 is half as tough as predicting the lottery (6/48) and that's 14million to one!
Give me some more but without so many choices, too time consuming. 3 choices to each question is fine.
James... is your age 30-35? Is it 31? Tall? D'you live in northern Australia?
50% correct out of 26 odd choices is not bad but not uncanny. Is your math correct? 6 out of 26 is half as tough as predicting the lottery (6/48) and that's 14million to one!
Give me some more but without so many choices, too time consuming. 3 choices to each question is fine.
James... is your age 30-35? Is it 31? Tall? D'you live in northern Australia?
tablariddim,
You got 3 correct - the make of car, the type, and the number of doors.
<i>50% correct out of 26 odd choices is not bad but not uncanny. Is your math correct? 6 out of 26 is half as tough as predicting the lottery (6/48) and that's 14million to one!</i>
Yes, my calculations are correct. They take into account the probability of getting each question right. The ones with fewer options are obviously easier to guess. The last question had a 50-50 chance on its own.
The point is that you had a roughly 1/10 chance of doing as well as you did. Possibly you just got lucky. More likely, you correlated your answers (most sedans have 4 doors). Thinking about it now, my questions weren't good because they were about related things.
<i>Give me some more but without so many choices, too time consuming. 3 choices to each question is fine.</i>
Ok. But we'll need more questions to make the test statistically significant. (see below)
<i>James... is your age 30-35? Is it 31? Tall? D'you live in northern Australia?</i>
You could get some of this information from my profile or things I've said. As for the northern Australia thing, the answer is no. Given that where I live for a long time came with every post I wrote (in the location part under my name), I'm surprised you made that mistake.
Ok, here are some more questions, each with 3 options:
* How long is the desk my computer is on?
4 feet, 5 feet, or 6 feet
* How many dogs do I own?
none, one, two
* How many cats?
none, one, two
* There is a red cushion on my sofa. What shape is it?
star-shaped, heart-shaped, cylinder
* There is a tennis ball on a shelf on my bookcase. Which shelf?
Top shelf, second from top, third from top?
* I have a decorated chinese fan. What animals are pictured on it?
Dragons, pandas or goldfish
* Above my desk is an art print. Who's the painter?
Dali, Kandinski, Picasso
* A coat hangs on my door. What colour is it?
Blue, Red, Black
* What did I have for breakfast this morning (see date of post)?
nothing, cereal, toast
* There's a gift voucher stuck on my fridge. How much is it for?
$10, $20, $30
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The chances of getting all of these correct by guessing is 1 in 59049. Let's see how you go this time.
You got 3 correct - the make of car, the type, and the number of doors.
<i>50% correct out of 26 odd choices is not bad but not uncanny. Is your math correct? 6 out of 26 is half as tough as predicting the lottery (6/48) and that's 14million to one!</i>
Yes, my calculations are correct. They take into account the probability of getting each question right. The ones with fewer options are obviously easier to guess. The last question had a 50-50 chance on its own.
The point is that you had a roughly 1/10 chance of doing as well as you did. Possibly you just got lucky. More likely, you correlated your answers (most sedans have 4 doors). Thinking about it now, my questions weren't good because they were about related things.
<i>Give me some more but without so many choices, too time consuming. 3 choices to each question is fine.</i>
Ok. But we'll need more questions to make the test statistically significant. (see below)
<i>James... is your age 30-35? Is it 31? Tall? D'you live in northern Australia?</i>
You could get some of this information from my profile or things I've said. As for the northern Australia thing, the answer is no. Given that where I live for a long time came with every post I wrote (in the location part under my name), I'm surprised you made that mistake.
Ok, here are some more questions, each with 3 options:
* How long is the desk my computer is on?
4 feet, 5 feet, or 6 feet
* How many dogs do I own?
none, one, two
* How many cats?
none, one, two
* There is a red cushion on my sofa. What shape is it?
star-shaped, heart-shaped, cylinder
* There is a tennis ball on a shelf on my bookcase. Which shelf?
Top shelf, second from top, third from top?
* I have a decorated chinese fan. What animals are pictured on it?
Dragons, pandas or goldfish
* Above my desk is an art print. Who's the painter?
Dali, Kandinski, Picasso
* A coat hangs on my door. What colour is it?
Blue, Red, Black
* What did I have for breakfast this morning (see date of post)?
nothing, cereal, toast
* There's a gift voucher stuck on my fridge. How much is it for?
$10, $20, $30
-----------
The chances of getting all of these correct by guessing is 1 in 59049. Let's see how you go this time.
Can anyone else say Post hoc ergo propter hoc? Didn't think so, hehe!
Take pride in knowing that your own line of thinking, has been recognised as a fallacy for hundreds of years, it's a special thing to fall back into a way of thinking that they even had to condemn in the dark ages.
Remember, if you wash the car, then tomorow it will rain.
Take pride in knowing that your own line of thinking, has been recognised as a fallacy for hundreds of years, it's a special thing to fall back into a way of thinking that they even had to condemn in the dark ages.
Remember, if you wash the car, then tomorow it will rain.
James R, I intentionally did not look at your profile, but did I get your age and height right???
I'll reply to the questions soon.
I'll reply to the questions soon.
tablariddim
Try these questions:
A) Is my dogs name 'Gizmo', 'Muffy', or 'Pineapple'?
B) Is my dog a 'Golden Lab', 'Dalmation', or a 'Malamute'?
C) Did my dog recently have 'Heart worms', 'a parasite in his
bowels', or a 'broken leg'?
Try these questions:
A) Is my dogs name 'Gizmo', 'Muffy', or 'Pineapple'?
B) Is my dog a 'Golden Lab', 'Dalmation', or a 'Malamute'?
C) Did my dog recently have 'Heart worms', 'a parasite in his
bowels', or a 'broken leg'?
James R: 6, 2, 2, cylinder, third, dragons, Kandinski, Black, toast, 20
Crunchy: pineapple, golden lab, bowel
Mr. G: true
Crunchy: pineapple, golden lab, bowel
Mr. G: true
tablariddim
Thanks. 100% of the answers were incorrect, but I am glad
that you at least tested your hypothesis.
-CC
Thanks. 100% of the answers were incorrect
, but I am gladthat you at least tested your hypothesis.
-CC
Ah well...
Before I say how many answers tablariddim got right, would any other psychics like to try to answer the 10 questions I asked?
For comparison, it would be good if a skeptic or two could have a try by guessing. Then we can compare the effectiveness of the psychic methods with the guessing.
Psychics and others: please specify what method you used to divine the answers when you post your reply.
Once I have 10 more replies, or after a day or so (whichever comes first), I'll post the correct answers and a statistical analysis.
For comparison, it would be good if a skeptic or two could have a try by guessing. Then we can compare the effectiveness of the psychic methods with the guessing.
Psychics and others: please specify what method you used to divine the answers when you post your reply.
Once I have 10 more replies, or after a day or so (whichever comes first), I'll post the correct answers and a statistical analysis.