Military Events in Syria and Iraq Thread #4

[Schmelzer]

There have been news from the Rastan pocket (between Hama and Homs) that a large part of the local forces have accepted the usual peace conditions: Those who like to continue fight can travel to Idlib with small weapons and family members, everybody else accepts the possibility to amnesty. Some forces (mainly Al Qaida) do not accept this, and there has started some fighting in the part of the pocket controlled by these forces.

In Southern Damascus, the evacuation of the fighters of one small Al Qaida (Hatesh) pocket inside the Yarmuk camp has been finished and this part of the pocket has been taken over successfully by the Syrian army:

The greater part of Yarmuk is yet controlled by Daesh (IS). The attacks against the IS pocket have continued, and further results have been reached in the Southwestern part of this pocket:

The farms between the suburb liberated the day before and the Hajar al Aswad suburb have been taken completely, and some parts of Hajar al Aswad have been taken too. This seems important, given that in principle taking such areas where the enemy can see and shoot everything while he is much better protected in the buildings, and where there have been old lines of defense given that not long ago the other part was controlled by another terrorist group, could have been difficult.

 

[Schmelzer]

News from Yarmouk camp: The IS pocket has been split into two parts:

There is information that, as part of the peace agreement with the Eastern (green) part of this pocket, Russian military police has entered that part.

There is also news that the evacuation/handing over heavy weapons in the Rastan pocket (between Homs and Hama) has started. See https://www.almasdarnews.com/articl...-over-their-heavy-weapons-to-syrian-military/

Also interesting is that in the former East Qalamoun pocket local fighters who have used the amnesty now start to volunteer for participation in the Syrian army. Not as strange as it sounds, for many fighters this is simply a job, a way to make money, moreover, in this pocket most of the fighters have not been fanatical jihadists all the time, and there has been even cooperation with the Syrian army against the IS in the past. But in fact there have been such fighters in many other pockets too. To make such things possible is one reason why the Syrian army tries not to finish all those pockets completely but, instead, to make such peace agreements which separate those who want to continue fighting because of ideological reasons from those who simply have joined the "rebels" to make money.

 

[Schmelzer]

Further progress in South Damascus. The map does no longer show the green region, suggesting that it no longer counts. Indeed, if yesterday Russian military police has already entered this region, and today there are already buses for the evacuation, it makes sense not to count it:

The military situation of the IS now looks increasingly hopeless. There has been info that ammunition became a problem for Daesh. So, all this looks like this pocket will be finished in short time.

An interesting map from the Rastan pocket between Hama and Homs. It looks like there is some agreement with the most important towns, Rastan and Talbiseh, which are located along the main road M5 from Homs to Hama (or from Damascus to Aleppo).

Instead, in the smaller villages there is more resistance against a peace negotiation, so there will probably be some fighting.

 

[sculptor]

Is Qassem Soleimani retiring?
Will the Quds Force be disbanded or absorbed into the irgc?

 

[Schmelzer]

Unclear. I have heard such things too, but too unclear what is really behind this.

 

[sculptor]

rumors?

 

[Schmelzer]

rumors?

Up to now, what I have heard was rumors. But I don't care that much about what I consider as internal power games, so I have not tried to find out more.

 

[Schmelzer]

The Southern part of the ISIS pocket has already been finished. It looks like they mainly run away using the remaining tunnels for connection. What is the actual situation on the Northern part is less clear, here I simply give two variants:

 

[Schmelzer]

The evacuation of the fighters of the Eastern (non-IS) part of the South Damascus pocket is almost finished. The Syrian army seems to have control over the critical part - the border with the IS-controlled part - and seems to have started to fight IS from this side too. The Syrian army being in Yalda has been supported by videos. The first progress from this side has been claimed, in particular, in the following map:

Later today progress has been claimed in the South-Western part:

The first patch of fighters from the Rastan pocket has been transported to Jarabolus, which is in the Northern part close to the Turkish border, at the Euphrat. The whole M5 highway from Homs to Hama seems now under control of the Russian military police. They often play such a role, as a sort of peacekeeping forces on the ground, in such situations, and the other side often insists on this. This is probably a question of trust, the Russians are known there to hold their promises, while they don't trust the Syrian army and even less various militias.

 

[Schmelzer]

During the last time, there was also another battle field for the Syrian army, namely the remains of the IS in the desert West of the Euphrat. There has been reached some success in taking some of the last villages which have remained up to now under IS control, and some important roads.

On the Eastern side of the Euphrat, the SDF tries to fight the thin part controlled by the IS near the river.

 

[Schmelzer]

Yesterday there was a serious exchange of rockets between Israel, on the one side, and Syrian/Iranian forces on the other side.

What has been finally destroyed by all these rockets was not that much, again a lot of the missiles have been shot by the Syrian air defense. A quite plausible story is some attack against Israeli forces by the Iranian forces as a retaliation against previous Israeli attacks, with the Israelis retaliating against the retaliation.

 

[iceaura]

This guy points at Trump's reneging, for the sudden escalation.
https://thinkprogress.org/iran-syria-escalating-israel-9307710e9165/

 

[CptBork]

Yesterday there was a serious exchange of rockets between Israel, on the one side, and Syrian/Iranian forces on the other side.

...

What has been finally destroyed by all these rockets was not that much, again a lot of the missiles have been shot by the Syrian air defense. A quite plausible story is some attack against Israeli forces by the Iranian forces as a retaliation against previous Israeli attacks, with the Israelis retaliating against the retaliation.

Of course you don't find it even the slightest bit implausible that Israeli planes were flying over Damascus for hours, and yet despite all these missiles supposedly being shot down, not a single plane was hit. If dozens of missiles were shot down, what were the locations for each of these shootdowns, and where's the wreckage? Syria doesn't even have anti-missile capabilities, they use old Soviet equipment and Russia hasn't yet provided them any S-300's, which would still be garbage.

 

[Schmelzer]

This guy points at Trump's reneging, for the sudden escalation.

There is, of course, a lot of confusion around this, but I tend to think actually that this is quite irrelevant here. The very point is a different one: If this would have been an Iranian retaliation, why do they deny it, instead of being proud of it?

So, I think this were the Syrians. They have every right to do it - their territory was attacked. And it makes sense for them to escalate a little bit to prevent repetition of what is actually the standard. They have escalated by shooting an Israeli airplane. The Israelis have recognized this, and now they restrict themselves to shooting missiles from Lebanon or from the Golan heights. So, fine, but not a real improvement. Syrian territory is, yet, attacked whenever Israel likes to attack it. So, if they want to stop this, they have to escalate their response. And so they have, as a response, started to shot at Israel army facilities at the Golan heights.

Of course you don't find it even the slightest bit implausible that Israeli planes were flying over Damascus for hours, and yet despite all these missiles supposedly being shot down, not a single plane was hit. If dozens of missiles were shot down, what were the locations for each of these shootdowns, and where's the wreckage? Syria doesn't even have anti-missile capabilities, they use old Soviet equipment and Russia hasn't yet provided them any S-300's, which would still be garbage.

Of course, because my sources have told me that there were a lot of Israeli warplanes, but not over Damascus, but over Israel, the Golan heights, and Lebanon. To shoot them over foreign territory would be a further escalation, which is not yet considered to be useful.

PS: I have now sufficiently reliable information that it was the Syrian army which has retaliated by attacking Israeli forces on the Golan heights.

 

[CptBork]

Of course, because my sources have told me that there were a lot of Israeli warplanes, but not over Damascus, but over Israel, the Golan heights, and Lebanon. To shoot them over foreign territory would be a further escalation, which is not yet considered to be useful.

There are multiple local reports of Israeli planes flying over Damascus during the airstrikes, and footage of planes guiding bombs to their targets. Plus according to Israel, multiple Syrian missile defense systems attacked its planes and were subsequently bombed in response, with footage such as that seen here: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018...est-attack-decades-syria-180511112827386.html

But no, if some fat drunk guy on Russian TV says Russia's fusion-powered laser satellites shot down all Israel's weapons, and Russia's allies allow Israel to exist only at their leisure so that they have something to shoot at for target practice, then it must be "reliable".

 

[iceaura]

Of course, because my sources have told me that there were a lot of Israeli warplanes, but not over Damascus, but over Israel, the Golan heights, and Lebanon. To shoot them over foreign territory would be a further escalation, which is not yet considered to be useful.

PS: I have now sufficiently reliable information that it was the Syrian army which has retaliated by attacking Israeli forces on the Golan heights

The Golan Heights are not "foreign territory" to Syria.
Israeli warplanes operate over the Golan Heights because Syria is incapable of preventing them or shooting them down, Israeli soldiers occupy that land because Syria cannot force them out.

The very point is a different one: If this would have been an Iranian retaliation, why do they deny it, instead of being proud of it?

I do not know whether this was Iranian retaliation, but Iran does have some reason to deny it or minimize it - the delicate nature of the sanction negotiations with the rest of the world, the delicate nature of their negotiations with the Russian proxies of Syria.

There is, of course, a lot of confusion around this, but I tend to think actually that this is quite irrelevant here.

Coincidence, then?

So, I think this were the Syrians. They have every right to do it - their territory was attacked.

They would also be triggered by Trump's reneging (corroborating Putin's influence and protection), as would be Israel in the first place (demonstrating resolve regardless of US behavior).
And there is no necessary conflict or either/or between Iran support and contribution, and Syrian reaction or defense - they are on the same side regarding Israel, after all. Why not both of them?

 

[CptBork]

If the Syrian regime had any reason to retaliate against Israel, that same reason would have upset Putin, and anything which upsets Putin upsets Russia, so we would have heard all about it by now. It doesn't look like Putin's upset- if anything, he seems rather pleased that someone's there to knock Iran down a peg for him while he consolidates his position as the top dog in Syria. "Thanks for the cannon fodder Iran, but I can't do anything about Israel because I'm busy hosting their Prime Minister at my most important parade, and oh by the way, I've decided Syria doesn't need the S-300 after all. Have a nice day!"

 

[Schmelzer]

There are multiple local reports of Israeli planes flying over Damascus during the airstrikes, and footage of planes guiding bombs to their targets. Plus according to Israel, multiple Syrian missile defense systems attacked its planes and were subsequently bombed in response,

According to my sources, there were a lot of drones over Syrian territory, but the planes only over Israel/Golan/Lebanon. The Israeli planes have been aimed at by the Syrian radars, a preparation to shooting them, but there have been no actual shots. But, of course, once you are targeted by such a radar, you see the radar too and can attack it - and this makes sense. If you think otherwise, so be it.

The Golan Heights are not "foreign territory" to Syria.

Ok, but this does not change the point that shooting Israeli planes there would be yet another escalation. The rational way to escalate is in small steps, so, a retaliation in form of a rocket attack against Israeli forces at Golan is already sufficient as escalation this time.

Israeli warplanes operate over the Golan Heights because Syria is incapable of preventing them or shooting them down,

Sure? I would not bet. They have already shot an Israeli plane. This time they have targeted them with their radars too. And the rockets they have are sufficient to cover such distances.

I do not know whether this was Iranian retaliation, but Iran does have some reason to deny it or minimize it - the delicate nature of the sanction negotiations with the rest of the world, the delicate nature of their negotiations with the Russian proxies of Syria.

Once their forces have been attacked, they have the right to retaliate, so this would be irrelevant on the diplomatic field. And they have openly promised retaliation, not caring about such things.

Coincidence, then?

Possibly. The Syrians have to do such an escalation to prepare the cleaning of Daraa. Without such escalation, they would be faced with terrorists having unpunished full Israeli air and artillery support all the time. If Syria escalates so that now each Israeli attack is answered by some rockets toward the Golan heights, Israel will think twice if it is worth to support the terrorists against the Syrian army.

And there is no necessary conflict or either/or between Iran support and contribution, and Syrian reaction or defense - they are on the same side regarding Israel, after all. Why not both of them?

Syria is already in a state of war with Israel, Iran not. It makes no sense for Iran to provoke a war with Israel.

 

[CptBork]

According to my sources, there were a lot of drones over Syrian territory, but the planes only over Israel/Golan/Lebanon. The Israeli planes have been aimed at by the Syrian radars, a preparation to shooting them, but there have been no actual shots. But, of course, once you are targeted by such a radar, you see the radar too and can attack it - and this makes sense. If you think otherwise, so be it.

Your sources can say whatever they want, but I don't see how they'd have any way of knowing what was actually there, so I'll stick with people in Damascus who actually heard planes overhead. If Syria was as precise and capable of detecting what Israel is operating at all times and where, as you'd have us believe, then their radar stations must be staffed by the Three Stooges, because they keep getting taken by surprise.

By the way, since you like making unverified statements about how Israel didn't kick your ass, but rather it was your ass that smacked into Israel's foot... Note this Guardian piece in which it's alleged that Iran's casualties are typically 10X higher than what they report in the news, or at least this is said to be the case for one of Israel's recent attacks on their forces in Syria: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/11/us-israel-iran-clashes-syria-war

Ok, but this does not change the point that shooting Israeli planes there would be yet another escalation. The rational way to escalate is in small steps, so, a retaliation in form of a rocket attack against Israeli forces at Golan is already sufficient as escalation this time.

Well after that completely ineffectual rocket attack from Syria, which was in response to a handful of isolated bombings, Israel launched the biggest wave of strikes in Syria since 1973, and the biggest it's ever launched directly against Iranian forces. Several rocket launchers were bombed before they could even fire their rockets, meaning that whoever was firing those rockets meant to shoot off more than the 20 duds they managed. Where's your deterrent, bro?

Sure? I would not bet. They have already shot an Israeli plane. This time they have targeted them with their radars too. And the rockets they have are sufficient to cover such distances.

That was an F-16 plane designed in the 1970's which wasn't even taking evasive action when it got targeted by something like two dozen missiles. Same model plane that had no trouble downing a Russian Su-24 in Turkish airspace, mind you. If Russia lost a Mig 29 in combat, you'd be here making sure everyone knows it's an old plane and not yet another sign of inferior Russian engineering, but when it's an F-16, it's time to hit the streets of Moscow to celebrate the return of your lost empire and get herpes from some hooker.

Israel already retaliated for that shootdown by blowing up half of Syria's air defense network, which is why they had such an easy time taking out every missile battery that fired upon them in this latest incident, and why there were only something like 5 such targets that needed to be hit. Not a single Israeli plane scratched, and yet you're going to say this was all about "deterring Israel", as if the regime in Syria doesn't know when it's supposed to protect itself or how that's supposed to be done.

Possibly. The Syrians have to do such an escalation to prepare the cleaning of Daraa. Without such escalation, they would be faced with terrorists having unpunished full Israeli air and artillery support all the time. If Syria escalates so that now each Israeli attack is answered by some rockets toward the Golan heights, Israel will think twice if it is worth to support the terrorists against the Syrian army.

So why is Assad crying on TV that he had nothing to do with the rockets?

Syria is already in a state of war with Israel, Iran not. It makes no sense for Iran to provoke a war with Israel.

Iran's been in a state of war with Israel since the day the Ayatollahs took charge. You know who hasn't declared war on anyone at any point in their modern history? Ukraine.

 

[Schmelzer]

The progress in Yarmuk became slower, but is present:

The fight against the Daesh pocket in the desert also shows some progress:

Note this Guardian piece in which it's alleged that Iran's casualties are typically 10X higher than what they report in the news, or at least this is said to be the case for one of Israel's recent attacks on their forces in Syria: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/11/us-israel-iran-clashes-syria-war

As if I would care about numbers of causalities claimed, independent of the source, or about what Iranian sources claims in general.

Where's your deterrent, bro?

You think it magically disappears if you name it "completely ineffectual"? Given that you will always name it this way, it cannot exist in principle. So, be happy with this.

That was an F-16 plane designed in the 1970's which wasn't even taking evasive action when it got targeted by something like two dozen missiles. Same model plane that had no trouble downing a Russian Su-24 in Turkish airspace, mind you.

SU 24 is not for airfight, but for attacking forces on the ground, and was not expecting any attack, so this is not a serious victory.

but when it's an F-16, it's time to hit the streets of Moscow to celebrate the return of your lost empire and get herpes from some hooker.

The point of mentioning it is not at all that hitting F-16 was somehow difficult, but the political decision to shoot it.

Israel already retaliated for that shootdown by blowing up half of Syria's air defense network,

with a video of a hit of a single shack as the proof of this heroic victory.

So why is Assad crying on TV that he had nothing to do with the rockets?

Source?