Military Events in Syria and Iraq thread #3

If https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-hezbollah-advance-key-southern-aleppo-district/ is correct, then the Syrian army has reached some serious progress in Sheikh Sa'eed. I have not seen a new map yet, but there it is claimed that they have reached some bridge inside the district. The only serious bridge in this region in the North-Western part is at the very North-West corner of the district. So, not really inside. Unfortunately, Leith Fadel is not famous for skills in geography.
 
Russian MoD warns US-led coalition against airstrikes targeting Syrian Army
Russia currently has S-400 and S-300 air-defense systems deployed to protect its troops stationed at the Tartus naval supply base and the Khmeimim airbase. The radius of the weapons reach may be “a surprise” to all unidentified flying objects, Russian Defense Ministry spokesperson General Igor Konashenkov said.

According to the Russian Defense Ministry, any airstrike or missile hitting targets in territory controlled by the Syrian government would put Russian personnel in danger.

Russian air defense system crews are unlikely to have time to determine in a ‘straight line’ the exact flight paths of missiles and then who the warheads belong to. And all the illusions of amateurs about the existence of ‘invisible’ jets will face a disappointing reality,” Konashenkov added.
https://www.almasdarnews.com/articl...d-coalition-airstrikes-targeting-syrian-army/

In other words, if somebody tries to hit Syrian territory without Russian permission and knowledge, he may face the consequences.
 
According to http://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/3683599 Konashenkov said quite explicitly that every attack on a region controlled by the Syrian army endangers Russian officers of the center of reconcilation, which work in almost all Syrian provinces. And that, after the attack of the 17. September, everything has been prepared to prevent a repetition of this against Russian soldiers and objects.

An actual map:

image4.jpeg
 
Russian MoD warns US-led coalition against airstrikes targeting Syrian Army

https://www.almasdarnews.com/articl...d-coalition-airstrikes-targeting-syrian-army/

In other words, if somebody tries to hit Syrian territory without Russian permission and knowledge, he may face the consequences.
They can warn all they want it won't help. I bet your beloved Mother Putina was upset when Trump's running mate outlined a position on Syria which was even more hawkish than Clinton's policies for the region. Yeah, I was surprised when Trump's running mate called for no fly zones and attacking Assad's military. I bettcha your beloved Mother Putina didn't see that one coming. :)

What remains now is what The Donald has to say about it. Will he reverse his previous positions on Syria and Russia or will he line up with his vice presidential nominee on those issues? I guess we will find out on Sunday. The US won't be worrying about the "consequences" of attacking Assad's troops. Putina should be worried about the consequences of his actions. He's the two bit petty dictator of a two bid petty nation.
 
Apparently the "FSA" advance on Dabiq has been repelled. So the End of Days has been postponed. (Maybe Schmelzer's bluster is supposed to substitute for Allah and it will be Putin and his Russian air force filling in for God by making an appearance in the sky. If so, God has a surprise coming if he tries to engage the United States. He'll get His butt kicked.)

Instead of attacking directly torwards Dabiq as they were on Wednesday, the "FSA" fighters have pushed southwards to the east of Dabiq and have taken the small town of Akhtarin. So maybe the new plan may be to encircle Dabiq (or maybe Akhtarin was just a target of opportunity).

http://www.edmaps.com/html/syrian_civil_war_in_maps.html
 
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Russian MoD warns US-led coalition against airstrikes targeting Syrian Army

https://www.almasdarnews.com/articl...d-coalition-airstrikes-targeting-syrian-army/

In other words, if somebody tries to hit Syrian territory without Russian permission and knowledge, he may face the consequences.

Almasdar News is the Syrian government news agency, isn't it? It's what Bashir Assad would like people to think. I'm not convinced that it always conforms to reality.

I doubt that the US is planning to launch air-strikes in Aleppo in support of the besieged rebels. Obama is very hesitant to take any additional military action in Syria. That's one of the few things I agree with Obama about. (!!!! damn, it hurt to say that, LOL) We have different reasons for our reluctance though.

But if the US did make that decision, I don't think that there's much that Russia could do about it. They do have one air base near Latakia and some very good surface to air missiles. The US has bases in Turkey and the Persian gulf area, aircraft carriers, and lots of local allies (Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the UAE etc.) who want Assad struck more than Obama does. The Russian air base could be knocked out in a few hours and the air defenses suppressed in a matter of days. Of course that would mean targeting Russian forces, which I doubt Obama and the Pentagon want to do. Putin would probably bluster about nuclear weapons. Obviously in real life he doesn't want nuclear war any more than Washington does. But his range of motion will be limited, even as he feels great pressure to respond forcefully. That creates a situation where the chance of mistakes occurring rises to dangerous levels.

I suspect that it's other members of the coalition like Turkey or Saudi Arabia that most want to intervene to help the rebels. They are Sunni Islamists themselves who hate Assad for religious reasons and feel no difficulty into snuggling up to and arming the Islamist rebels. Could they do so without direct US participation?

Turkey is in a tough spot since they have arrested or fired at least half of their generals and admirals since the coup attempt. So many pilots have been arrested or fired that Turkey has more planes than pilots to fly them. While the coup allowed Erdogan to make himself a Putin-style strong-man, his military's fighting capability has been seriously degraded. Meaning that while Ankara would doubtless like to intervene in Aleppo on the side of the rebels, it's questionable whether they have the ability, especially if it meant fighting the Russians in Syria.

Saudi Arabia is already heavily committed to the civil war in Yemen. (A war that is almost never in the news...)

The UAE have armed themselves to the teeth in fear of nearby Iran. But they are too small to lead the charge in Syria and take on Russia all by themselves.

All in all, I don't think that the US wants to intervene in Aleppo. Its European allies certainly don't. Its Middle Eastern allies do, but they probably can't do it themselves. So it ain't gonna happen.

Russia is just blustering ("Russian permission"?) in hopes of looking tough and in hopes of impressing its own people with it's return to super-power status.
 
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Yeah, I was surprised when Trump's running mate called for no fly zones and attacking Assad's military. I bettcha your beloved Mother Putina didn't see that one coming. :)
As I said, it is not at all clear what would be the preference of Putin. I have also changed my position toward more neutral, given the evidence that Clinton is highly corrupt.

If the US does not worry about the consequences of their aggressions, then there is no chance to avoid WW III. And this will be, with some large enough probability, the end of mankind. So be it - the Earth was, despite all this, a beautiful planet, with a lot of nice human beings on it. I'm not afraid of dying, I had a beautiful and interesting life. Sorry for mankind, but, anyway, we all have to die.

In Aleppo, there have been a lot of small advances. A hill claimed to be of strategic importance in the South, various buildings in different districts. Found one map and the corresponding claims that the highway from Ramouse to the airport is now completely under control of the Syrian army.

4055360_13b96220fbc7bd6f4f52d0f2eac91f1d.jpg
 
Almasdar News is the Syrian government news agency, isn't it?
Not at all. Leith Fadel sits, if I correctly understand, somewhere in America. The government is SANA http://sana.sy/en/
I doubt that the US is planning to launch air-strikes in Aleppo in support of the besieged rebels. Obama is very hesitant to take any additional military action in Syria.
I doubt this too. But, sorry, to "leak" to Washington Post https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...istration-considering-strikes-on-assad-again/ that this is "considered" is the closest thing to an open threat.
But if the US did make that decision, I don't think that there's much that Russia could do about it. They do have one air base near Latakia and some very good surface to air missiles. The US has bases in Turkey and the Persian gulf area, aircraft carriers, and lots of local allies (Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the UAE etc.) who want Assad struck more than Obama does. The Russian air base could be knocked out in a few hours and the air defenses suppressed in a matter of days.
The first step of escalation is some US attack on some Syrian entity, which is answered by the Russian air defense, but officially only the Syrian one. A few missiles or an airplane shot over Syrian territory. Not a big deal, you will not even hear about this in the media, after this the US knows that the Russians will shoot, and that the result will be big war. And that's it.

The next step is a repetition of the Vietnam war. Officially only a war between Vietnam and US, it was clear to everybody that there was Soviet airforce and air defense which has shot down a lot of US airforce.

The next level is a direct attack on the Russian base. In this case, the American bases, if used, and aircraft carriers, if used, will be targets too.

Then comes the full scale nuclear war.
I suspect that it's other members of the coalition like Turkey or Saudi Arabia that most want to intervene to help the rebels. They are Sunni Islamists themselves who hate Assad for religious reasons and feel no difficulty into snuggling up to and arming the Islamist rebels. Could they do so without direct US participation?
Forget about the neighbors. If Saudi Arabia attacks Syria, they will be the target of some missiles, and that's their end. They cannot even win agains Yemen. Same for UAE. Turkey and Israel will not participate too, and even less do something alone. They may not like Assad, but this is nothing worth for them to start a deadly war. Forget about Europe - Germany has already stopped - officially, some technical problems - their participation in the coalition. If it comes to war with Russia, the US will be alone.
Russia is just blustering ("Russian permission"?) in hopes of looking tough and in hopes of impressing its own people with it's return to super-power status.
The US should blame itself that it allows its own propaganda to do such stupid things like https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...istration-considering-strikes-on-assad-again/

The options under consideration, which remain classified, include bombing Syrian air force runways using cruise missiles and other long-range weapons fired from coalition planes and ships, an administration official who is part of the discussions told me. One proposed way to get around the White House’s long-standing objection to striking the Assad regime without a U.N. Security Council resolution would be to carry out the strikes covertly and without public acknowledgment, the official said.

This is, of course, an invitation for the other side. We have it, now, officially that the current administration thinks about doing war crimes.

And, of course, Russia has to answer such an open threat, and has done it. And if the US, after this, does not do the promised crimes, they have to blame themselves for forcing Putin to look tough, and Obama like a loser.
 
Some good progress in the North of Aleppo, the district Owaija has been taken completely, the Jandoul roundabout (encircled) has been taken too.
4056115_5d0e32ed8f0b752a60d8820e0d7c3868.jpg

The Syrian army is now attacking in the Manasher district East of of Owaija, from the other side.
4056229_bdc0d869b2acc021ed75bfac289e4ff7.jpg

In above cases, the maps seem slightly old and have been simply taken to indicate where the actual fighting happens. I have seen already claims that Manasher Hanano (below it) is already attacked.

On the other hand, after sevaral days without any counterattacks, the terrorists have during the night made even two counterattacks, near the center and in the South, and even reached some gains. So, they have yet some reserves to counterattack. Analysts think they are giving up the North to concentrate in the South, given that to break out at the North along the Castello road is already hopeless. So it makes sense to focus on the South, where one has at least some hope to break out.

Good news from Hama: Yesterday a counteroffensive has started and several villages, which have been taken by the terrorists during the last weeks, have been retaken. https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-captures-7-villages-northern-hama/

One reason for this quite large success in short time may be that there is a serious fight between two terrorist gangs, https://www.almasdarnews.com/articl...ull-swing-jund-al-aqsa-battles-ahrar-al-sham/ Jund Al-Aqsa and Ahrar Al-Sham. I wish above sides in this conflict big military victories.
 
Then comes the full scale nuclear war.

Ahh yes, any time we have talk of a forceful American intervention, the Russian German trolls come out with their usual nuclear threats. Schmelzer is right about this one though, in the sense that anyone who's not an idiot knows the US military can blow the Russian one sky high in any conventional engagement, and Russians being miserable and insecure as they are might just choose the nuclear option for once, rather than crawling back into their ramshackle caves and hovels dachas and accepting their usual defeats.

Well, the way I see it, if Russians want to insist on committing suicide but in a petty selfish way that wrecks it for everyone who actually has good reasons to want to live, then we may as well force them to do it sooner rather than later. Word is most of Russia's nuke arsenal is currently out of commission since most of their current budget goes into vodka and paid online trolls, so better to engage and halt them over an issue like Ukraine or Syria where they're less prepared, rather than dealing with them when they're ready to go and demanding the southern coast of France.

In the meantime, I'm sure further economic sanctions are forthcoming at this point, but if it were up to me, the Russians, Chinese and all other fascists of the planet would have already received the boot from the US, Canada and every other country that respects freedom. I don't care if everything costs twice as much if it saves me from having to concern myself with a bunch of insecure droopy-eyed bastard drunks and their half-functional nukes.
 
Ahh yes, any time we have talk of a forceful American intervention, the Russian German trolls come out with their usual nuclear threats.
You misinterpret my posting. I have described three levels of escalation. Once there are such levels, which can be easily distinguished, that means, it would be possible to escalate to one level and have a reasonable hope that this will not automatically escalate to the next one. That there is a nuclear threat if the US attacks Russia is nonetheless obvious. So, once I describe the various levels - which are chances to prevent nuclear war - I anyway have to mention the final one. That's all.

The question was if in case of an attack against Syria Russia will leave Syria alone, but this question has been answered now officially - it will not. This is, of course, a tough decision - what is Syria to risk a nuclear war for it? But, essentially, this has been predictable, the general rule is that once Russia is engaged, it will not run away. Essentially, Putin is not that stupid that he has not known already a year ago that Russia may be forced to make such a decision, and this decision has been made already at that time.

The US was, essentially, stupid enough to ask for an official confirmation, and now received it. With the consequence that once they decide not to attack Syria now, they have been identified as the Chicken. http://theduran.com/us-backs-down-over-syria-following-russian-threat-shoot-down-american-aircraft/ The question is why the US behaves in such an obviously stupid way. The general opinion of Russian analysts is that there is a US-internal fight, Pentagon against Kerry or so, so that the participants do care more about how to hit their internal enemies than about the general US interest.

anyone who's not an idiot knows the US military can blow the Russian one sky high in any conventional engagement

BTW, if you think that it is easy for the US to win a conventional war against Russia, I would recommend you to get some better sources of information. Once the US cannot shoot intercontinental rockets without nuclear escalation, it would need other tools to transport its forces to Russia. And what Russia has cared about a lot is to be able to defend itself against this. So it has sufficiently good missiles to destroy American ships and aircraft carriers.

And it has good enough air defense. The US has good reasons not to try it out even in Syria, where one could hope that it would not escalate to a nuclear war, because above sides would prefer a repetition of the Vietnam war level. So, think about why the US has decided not to attack Syria.

So, even bombing Russia with conventional aircraft is not unproblematic at all. And boots on the ground? Forget it. The main problem is how to bring them to Russia, and how to support them there. Logistics. Russia would have a similar problem with logistics if it would want to attack more than the Balticum or the Ukraine. But it does not even want to do this. So, because logistics matter, the question if Russia is able to win a conventional war in, say, Europe, or even to attack the US conventionally, is very different from the question if it could defend itself in a conventional war. Russia does not even care about the former, all it cares about is its ability to defend itself. This is much easier. And Russia seems able to do this. The weapons are on the same level, the logistics much easier if one defends the own country, the support by the population and the morale of the army would be much better.

Anyway, here some actual map:
71ri07e679acr71zg.jpg
 
schmelzer said:
The US was, essentially, stupid enough to ask for an official confirmation, and now received it. With the consequence that once they decide not to attack Syria now, they have been identified as the Chicken. http://theduran.com/us-backs-down-over-syria-following-russian-threat-shoot-down-american-aircraft/ The question is why the US behaves in such an obviously stupid way.
One of the cumulative effects of the US being stupid and chicken in that manner is that Russia now owns not only its own behavior in Syria, but that of its allies - the bombed hospitals, the gassing of civilians, the atrocities across the landscape. The US has an excuse now, to fail to intervene once again - which allows it to stand aside and watch Islamic jihadists battle Russian forces, with victory for either unlikely and the humanitarian disaster firmly affixed to enemies of the US.
 
BTW, if you think that it is easy for the US to win a conventional war against Russia, I would recommend you to get some better sources of information.

I never said a word about it being easy, only decisive. It could well be the most difficult war the US has ever fought, depending on how it plays out and how well everything ends up working on a real modern battlefield. It's not about convenience, it's about the necessity of halting the territorial expansion of a nuclear-armed fascist power at the earliest possible opportunity, along with the blatant ethnic cleansing that has always accompanied it. I personally advocate a total economic cutoff as the minimal starting point, but NATO must be prepared for any level of military escalation as necessary rather than ceding another inch.
 
One of the cumulative effects of the US being stupid and chicken in that manner is that Russia now owns not only its own behavior in Syria, but that of its allies - the bombed hospitals, the gassing of civilians, the atrocities across the landscape. The US has an excuse now, to fail to intervene once again - which allows it to stand aside and watch Islamic jihadists battle Russian forces, with victory for either unlikely and the humanitarian disaster firmly affixed to enemies of the US.

That's a really convenient fiction you're telling yourself, but the refugees aren't exactly heading for Russia, despite the overwhelming abundance of unused territory it's been stockpiling of late. The way I see it, if you take in the refugees, then you should at minimum get a claim on the territory they were forced to abandon, let alone a stake in preventing the continued genocide.
 
That's a really convenient fiction you're telling yourself, but the refugees aren't exactly heading for Russia, despite the overwhelming abundance of unused territory it's been stockpiling of late. The way I see it, if you take in the refugees, then you should at minimum get a claim on the territory they were forced to abandon, let alone a stake in preventing the continued genocide.
What's the "fiction" part? I was just pointing to an aspect of what the the US was actually doing. It's not the first time the US has stood by while Russians fought Sunni jihadists, after all.

As far as taking in refugees giving one geographical claims, that would give Syria - under its current government - a good share of Iraq, including much oil - which it could definitely use. It would give Jordan a fair chunk of Israel. You sure you want to go there?
 
What's the "fiction" part? I was just pointing to an aspect of what the the US was actually doing. It's not the first time the US has stood by while Russians fought Sunni jihadists, after all.

For starters, the US didn't "stand by" while Russia fought in Afghanistan. If your logic is that any US involvement will automatically empower jihadis and make a target out of Americans, please explain why the US is already there fighting ISIS on Russia's behalf while Russia ultimately takes over the land the US liberates? Why are you guys fighting in Iraq on Iran's behalf, when Iran ultimately ethnically cleanses the territory of its native Sunnis regardless of who liberates it first? What crime has ISIS committed against the world that Assad hasn't? Who was it that originally let ISIS come into existence and cross the Iraqi border with impunity for 10 years to fight the American occupation before this current mess? You can't escape the consequences of this fight, and it ultimately costs you far more than Putin spends in bombs and jet fuel.

As far as taking in refugees giving one geographical claims, that would give Syria - under its current government - a good share of Iraq, including much oil - which it could definitely use. It would give Jordan a fair chunk of Israel. You sure you want to go there?

Why the hell not? Rights are rights. If there are Palestinian refugees or descendants in Jordan who can reliably establish that their schools, hospitals and mosques were razed to the ground as punishment for voting the wrong faction into power, and that's why they were forced to flee their homes, then absolutely they should get their original lands back or something equivalent. I thought that's one of the central arguments used to support the so-called "two-state solution", that Israel should ultimately be partitioned based on security concerns and historical land usage.

Israel took in more refugees leaving behind much larger tracts of land in Arab countries than anything it sent back the other way, so let's throw that in too and make an exchange. I'd rather prioritize dealing with land-thieving countries that already have doubly more land than anyone else on the planet, but you can also pick fights over your morally relativistic pet causes and miniscule plots of farmland if that's really so important to you. One can't just go and claim a piece of land that someone else is already actively using, and then remove them by force before they've even done anything to break the peace or threaten their neighbours.

No, the original point still stands. If the US has no dog in the Syria fight, then stop fighting ISIS there and handing the territory it controls to equally brutal terrorists from the other side. Stop handing off territory to greedy Ruskie mafiosi and Iranian mullahs while picking up the welfare tabs on the refugees they create.
 
Cpt said:
1}For starters, the US didn't "stand by" while Russia fought in Afghanistan. 2} If your logic is that any US involvement will automatically empower jihadis and make a target out of Americans, 3} please explain why the US is already there fighting ISIS on Russia's behalf while Russia ultimately takes over the land the US liberates? 4} Why are you guys fighting in Iraq on Iran's behalf, when Iran ultimately ethnically cleanses the territory of its native Sunnis regardless of who liberates it first? 5} What crime has ISIS committed against the world that Assad hasn't? 6} Who was it that originally let ISIS come into existence and cross the Iraqi border with impunity for 10 years to fight the American occupation before this current mess? 7} You can't escape the consequences of this fight, and it ultimately costs you far more than Putin spends in bombs and jet fuel.
1) Neither did we bomb Russian soldiers or their allies from nearby airports established for the purpose.
2) It isn't, of course
3) Good question, and as I pointed out to Schmelzer that's not something the US needs to do in its own interest - and a good excuse to not do it might be welcome in some cynical circles
4) Another good question, with a painful answer that many Americans still refuse to face - although misleadingly put, as it was and is not "Iran" doing the ethnic cleansing. Iran has proved adept at avoiding direct involvement, instead getting its way at the risk and expense (and evildoing) of others.
5) Widespread and ongoing campaigns of assault against civilian citizens of several Western nations, including the US - among others.
6) I'm sure you didn't really mean to imply that the Syrian government was responsible for the Sunni uprising against the American occupation of Iraq, including the fraction of it that formed in the refugee camps along the Syrian border.
7) Tell me about it. America will be paying a heavy price for the Iraq War until this generation is dead, and possibly long after.
Cpt said:
"As far as taking in refugees giving one geographical claims, that would give Syria - under its current government - a good share of Iraq, including much oil - which it could definitely use. It would give Jordan a fair chunk of Israel. You sure you want to go there?"
Why the hell not? Rights are rights. - -
Start there, then - those are the longer standing and indisputable claims.
Cpt said:
If there are Palestinian refugees or descendants in Jordan who can reliably establish that their schools, hospitals and mosques were razed to the ground as punishment for voting the wrong faction into power, and that's why they were forced to flee their homes, then absolutely they should get their original lands back or something equivalent.
Please. We both know that ethnic cleansing and violence are the major refugee factors in Syria, and that "voting" has little to do with the refugee problem.
Cpt said:
I thought that's one of the central arguments used to support the so-called "two-state solution", that Israel should ultimately be partitioned based on security concerns and historical land usage.
The "two State" solution has little to do with partitioning Israel proper, and nothing to do with the proposed land claims of Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria, on Israeli territory.
Cpt Bork said:
Israel took in more refugees leaving behind much larger tracts of land in Arab countries than anything it sent back the other way,
Uh, no. But we range afield - in a minute the semantics of what we are to term "refugees" will fog what is between Syria and Iraq a clear and recent, even ongoing, issue.

The United States has no interest in seeing Syria under Bashad acquire oil fields in Iraq concomitant with its absorption of refugees during the Iraq Occupation. True?
 
For starters, the US didn't "stand by" while Russia fought in Afghanistan.
Indeed, the US has started to support the jihadists in Afghanistan even before the USSR started to help the Afghan government against them. Giving money, weapons and training to murderous terrorists is something described as "stand by" from the US. So far about the US version of international law.
... please explain why the US is already there fighting ISIS on Russia's behalf while Russia ultimately takes over the land the US liberates?
Hm. Which Syrian land has been liberated by the US? Do you have in mind the ISIS-controlled territory? Given that you support ISIS as open as possible:
What crime has ISIS committed against the world that Assad hasn't?
it looks like this. Maybe the territory controlled by the openly US-supported terrorists of Al Qaeda and friends? In above cases, indeed, you have to live with the fact that the land which the US "liberates" will be ultimately controlled not by US-paid terrorists, but by those who fight them and will ultimately win this battle against terrorism.

Even if the US continues to "stand by" sending them manpads and other weapons.

By the way, the territory will be ultimately controlled by the Syrian people, not the Russians.
 
1) Neither did we bomb Russian soldiers or their allies from nearby airports established for the purpose.

You didn't have Russian businesses parking their money in your banks and buying your technologies, nor were your allies doing significant business with them. You also supplied the Afghan resistance with enough weapons to drive the Russians out, and while I personally believe terrorist groups such as Al Qaeda would have emerged under Russian occupation, Pakistani expansionism and Saudi oil sales just the same even without American involvement, trading the USSR's continued imperial expansion for relatively tiny hostile militias seems like a remarkably good deal to me, from a list consisting only of terrible options.

2) It isn't, of course

So why not increase the supply of weapons to vetted secularist militias who are actively involved both in fighting ISIS as well as Assad?

3) Good question, and as I pointed out to Schmelzer that's not something the US needs to do in its own interest - and a good excuse to not do it might be welcome in some cynical circles

Well don't label me cynical when you're the one advocating for yawning and doing nothing to save hundreds of thousands of lives and prevent millions of refugees from losing their homeland. It seems we're ultimately agreed though that the US is wasting its time fighting ISIS, if it's only going to make life easier for the Russian-backed terrorists who would eventually have to confront it anyhow.

4) Another good question, with a painful answer that many Americans still refuse to face - although misleadingly put, as it was and is not "Iran" doing the ethnic cleansing. Iran has proved adept at avoiding direct involvement, instead getting its way at the risk and expense (and evildoing) of others.

Same difference. I wasn't attempting to be misleading, as the strings are pulled from Iran either way.

5) Widespread and ongoing campaigns of assault against civilian citizens of several Western nations, including the US - among others.

Hezbollah and its allies are guilty of that too and have killed a far higher number of civilians, assassinated the former Prime Minister of Lebanon and have committed every crime against humanity in the book (including WMD chemical attacks), so why is the US not bombing them as well or punishing them at the UN? Why do you support action against ISIS as the symptom but not the continuous Shiite sectarian cleansing that gives ISIS its greatest raison d'etre, when ISIS will presumably go after Americans either way?

6) I'm sure you didn't really mean to imply that the Syrian government was responsible for the Sunni uprising against the American occupation of Iraq, including the fraction of it that formed in the refugee camps along the Syrian border.

I implied that Assad prolonged the afforementioned uprising and made it dramatically worse. Seems to me that America spent the bulk of its time in Iraq specifically cleaning up that mess and the ones left by Iran's Al Sadr militias, while Iran harboured and assisted top Al Qaeda operatives directly from its own soil, including some of Osama Bin Laden's closest family members. You can't pretend that Assad and ISIS have always been at war; they hardly even fight each other at this very moment when America's mostly long gone from the scene.

7) Tell me about it. America will be paying a heavy price for the Iraq War until this generation is dead, and possibly long after.

Don't change the subject. You'll be paying a massive price for whatever happens in Syria whether you ignore it or not, and building a time machine to stop Bush from invading Iraq won't change that.

Start there, then - those are the longer standing and indisputable claims. Please. We both know that ethnic cleansing and violence are the major refugee factors in Syria, and that "voting" has little to do with the refugee problem.

Syria's refugees are overwhelmingly opposed to Bashar Assad's continuing presidency, so of course it has to do with how they "voted" (or would have voted if they actually had basic rights).

The "two State" solution has little to do with partitioning Israel proper, and nothing to do with the proposed land claims of Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria, on Israeli territory.

Let them press their frigging claims then as I already said and press it on whatever territory they think peaceful, nonviolent Palestinian farmers were evicted from, and Israel will press its counterclaims in turn. I must be missing something here, because amongst the dozen other major Russian-created crises in the area, there's a city of 250,000 currently being wiped from the face of the Earth with women and children eating mouthfuls of chlorine and flak, and unless I'm mistaken, it's located hundreds of miles outside Israeli territory. You need to check your damn priorities and stop taking these fucking fights all the way back to the beginnings of human evolution from primates.


Ok I guess if you say so, then the 600,000+ Arab Jews who were forced to migrate to Israel after 1948 did so because they liked Polish pyrogies and Mediterranean weather. Great, go to the UN and tell them "uh, no" like some skater punk, and best of luck to you with that. Personally I care mainly about stopping the existing flow of refugees rather than making them continue to bleed just so we can rejuvenate a 70 year-old fight and have yet more problems to entertain ourselves with.

But we range afield

No, the Israel non-sequitors are all yours this time.

- in a minute the semantics of what we are to term "refugees" will fog what is between Syria and Iraq a clear and recent, even ongoing, issue.

The United States has no interest in seeing Syria under Bashad acquire oil fields in Iraq concomitant with its absorption of refugees during the Iraq Occupation. True?

You're practically the first person I've seen mentioning Iraqi refugees in Syria since 2006. Ok, how many Iraqis and their children are living in Syria right now after being chased out by the Americans? Sure thing, let Bashar Assad claim his 50 acres on their behalf, since ultimately from an international standpoint the land would be transferred to Syria as a "nation", not specifically Assad himself. Still doesn't change the fact that Europe, Canada and the US are owed tens of thousands of square kilometres in territory, if Russia and its allies want to keep the land and don't want to let those refugees return to their homes. I'd rather just stop the refugee problem in its tracks altogether, but if we're not going to do that, then let's at least not be the ones to soak up and scrub Russia's hangover vomit stains.
 
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