Military Events in Syria and Iraq thread #3

[Schmelzer]

This guy does not even know elementary things:

.... while Iran harboured and assisted top Al Qaeda operatives directly from its own soil, including some of Osama Bin Laden's closest family members. You can't pretend that Assad and ISIS have always been at war; they hardly even fight each other at this very moment when America's mostly long gone from the scene.

Can somebody explain him that Iran is ruled by Shiite, while Bin Laden is one of the most powerful Saudi family, and are Wahabies, which is an extremist Sunni sect, which fights everything Shiite?

And that the Pentagon, to destroy the ceasefire, has made the USAF fight against Assad in Deir Ezzor, which is encircled by ISIS, and nobody else, and which is a region where intense fighting between Assad troops and ISIS happens almost every day?

Of course, ISIS was created by America in Iraq, to fight the Al Sadr militias (which are Shia) as well as the Iraq army, which was controlled by Shia too. Iran has, of course, liked the American intervention against Saddam Hussein, a Sunni, who has repressed a Shia majority in Iraq, and was ready to play democracy in Iraq, where a Shia majority has easily given a majority to pro-Iranian forces. But, sorry, this was Bush's political stupidity.

And once the US have understood how stupid it was to destroy Saddam Hussein and the whole Sunni-controlled Iraq army, with the result that the democratically elected political power was anti-American, pro-Iranian Shia, and all this was supported by Shia extremist Al Sadr militias. Of course, the Sunnis, taken away from power, did not give up, and started to create own groups. And Al Qaeda was quite successful getting support. Initially the Americans fought against Al Qaeda, doing horrible war crimes in Falludsha in that time. It is not completely clear to me when they started to support it. But at the time they got out of Iraq 2011 this was already clear.

2006-2013 there was, of course, no conflict between Assad and ISI, because during this time this organization was acting only in Iraq. Only 2013 they became ISIL, and attacked Syria too.

----------------
In Aleppo itself there has been some small progress in various parts, but nothing decisive, and I have not seen interesting new maps. But here are some maps from Northern Hama:

This map nicely shows the general situation. The terrorists had started an offensive there already some time ago, and the Syrian leadership has ignored this front some time, simply because Aleppo was much more important. So the terrorists were able to reach some successes, the dark green and dark red areas. Now, the Syrian army has send some troops to this front, and started a counteroffensive. The dark red area is what they have already recovered from their losses. I think the aim of this counteroffensive is not to reach big aims, but simply to prevent things becoming worse there. Last but not least, they already came quite close to Hama. and the terrorists taking Hama would be something one would like to prevent.

Here a more local map about the actual fighting:

 

[CptBork]

This guy does not even know elementary things:

Can somebody explain him that Iran is ruled by Shiite, while Bin Laden is one of the most powerful Saudi family, and are Wahabies, which is an extremist Sunni sect, which fights everything Shiite?

Explain yourself this:
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/per...poses-Iran-s-attempt-to-revive-al-Qaeda-.html

That's how violently insane and jealous of American prosperity you guys are, you'll actually make deals with some of your allegedly worst enemies just to hurt the US in any way you can. Russia and Iran don't play a zero sum game, they're actually happy with a negative sum game as long as they lose less.

Of course you'll probably pull the old Bizarrovich World parallel universe trick and tell everyone these accusations are pure CIA fiction; I'm just calling it in advance, because one test of a person who speaks the truth versus a bald-faced lying Kremlin propagandist, is that they should be able to make some reasonably accurate predictions about the course of future events, just as scientific theories are tested for truthfulness in general.

 

[CptBork]

Just watching a re-run of tonight's election debate... Wow, Iceaura you might as well vote for your pal Mr. Trump, he basically shares your foreign policy on Syria to the letter.

 

[CptBork]

Gonna throw another prediction out there, as a test of whether I'm actually onto the truth or completely deluding myself:
When the dust finally settles, Eastern Aleppo is going to have been raped worse than the Nazis and Soviets raped Warsaw.

 

[Schmelzer]

Explain yourself this:
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/per...poses-Iran-s-attempt-to-revive-al-Qaeda-.html

Hm. Iran allows to live a family member of the bin Laden family in Iran. Since after 9/11 it became too dangerous for him to live in Afghanistan. Born 1991, thus, at that moment around 11 years old. Reasonable, given that the US is known to murder children of prominent muslim leaders, a normal humanitarian act.

So you accuse Iran for Al Qaeda support, because it has done nothing against a child living there? Fine, but then Pakistan, where bin Laden himself lived, is much more of an Al Qaeda supporter. And Pakistan is US ally.

The messages also revealed that Bin Laden said Iran is ‘the chief pathway for our money, men, communiqué, and hostages”. Bin Laden also urged his men “not to start a front against Iran.”

Ok. And that's all? This in no way means that the Iranian government sponsors Al Qaida.

Which way would you propose to use from Afghanistan to Saudi Arabia? A quite natural way is through Baluchestan, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sistan_and_Baluchestan_Province where the population is mostly Sunni, and does not like the Shia government in Teheran at all.

The alternative way would be through Pakistan. Which has been used much more.

What else? A list of some Al Qaeda guys with "links to Iran" of type

Jafar al Uzbeki, aka Jafar the Uzbek Status: Presumed to have at one point been in Iran

LOL. I would expect much more Iranians in Al Qaeda, given around 10% Sunni population, many of them in Baluchistan.

That's how violently insane and jealous of American prosperity you guys are,

LOL. Been in the US three weeks, and decided "never again". This was at a time shortly after the end of communism, when I was politically yet quite pro-American.

Of course you'll probably pull the old Bizarrovich World parallel universe trick and tell everyone these accusations are pure CIA fiction; I'm just calling it in advance, because one test of a person who speaks the truth versus a bald-faced lying Kremlin propagandist, is that they should be able to make some reasonably accurate predictions about the course of future events, just as scientific theories are tested for truthfulness in general.

"Saudi American Public Relations Affairs Committee" sounds, of course, very much like a CIA public relation agency. But, as you can see from my answer, I have not named even a single fact provided in this piece "pure fiction". The only thing which is pure fiction is the idea that this somehow proves that the Iran government supports Sunni terrorists of Al Qaeda.

 

[iceaura]

So why not increase the supply of weapons to vetted secularist militias who are actively involved both in fighting ISIS as well as Assad?

Good idea. I'm on board. Like who? Anybody not allied with Iran? Myself, I lean toward adopting the Kurds in general, even if they are hard to "vet" and not really secular, and not betraying them this time. On moral grounds. But that's a serious can of worms from the realpolitik pov - every State in the region wants the Kurds stepped on.

"3) Good question, and as I pointed out to Schmelzer that's not something the US needs to do in its own interest - and a good excuse to not do it might be welcome in some cynical circles"
Well don't label me cynical when you're the one advocating for yawning and doing nothing to save hundreds of thousands of lives and prevent millions of refugees from losing their homeland.

I didn't label you cynical, I labeled the current US policy potentially cynical (depending on whether the guys running it are actually thinking like that). And I'm advocating nothing of the kind - not even close.

Just watching a re-run of tonight's election debate... Wow, Iceaura you might as well vote for your pal Mr. Trump, he basically shares your foreign policy on Syria to the letter.

He doesn't have a policy. Neither do I. Is that what you meant?

Or were you talking about Trump's giving Obama's non-involvement tactics the nod I gave them, the recognition of their potential long term benefits to the cynical? Because I missed that part of Trump's speeches.

Syria's refugees are overwhelmingly opposed to Bashar Assad's continuing presidency, so of course it has to do with how they "voted" (or would have voted if they actually had basic rights).

Reality check: They didn't get bombed because of the way they voted. Don't say they did, ok?

Don't change the subject. You'll be paying a massive price for whatever happens in Syria whether you ignore it or not, and building a time machine to stop Bush from invading Iraq won't change that

And building a time machine to stop W from invading Iraq would be the only way to change that. So what's your point? W&Co seriously screwed the pooch, and among the consequences is the mess in Syria - in which the US has no good options, no good allies, no good prospects, and has essentially invited Russia in to take over whatever Iran can't handle. A complete and utter fuckup by W&Co.

I must be missing something here, because amongst the dozen other major Russian-created crises in the area, there's a city of 250,000 currently being wiped from the face of the Earth with women and children eating mouthfuls of chlorine and flak, and unless I'm mistaken, it's located hundreds of miles outside Israeli territory. You need to check your damn priorities and stop taking these fucking fights all the way back to the beginnings of human evolution from primates.

So you are willing to abandon the whole refugee land claim angle, and go back to real life - ok.

whoops:

You're practically the first person I've seen mentioning Iraqi refugees in Syria since 2006. Ok, how many Iraqis and their children are living in Syria right now after being chased out by the Americans?

You always try to sneak that qualifier in there - who cares what chased them out? The consequences of the American invasion chased them out.

Syria took in millions of Iraqi refugees temporarily - Baathists of course, also other Sunnis including jihadists and future ISIS members, and a lot of Shiites fleeing Sunni ethnic cleansing. Many went home fairly soon. Sometime in 2011 Syrian Sunni of various sorts rebelled against Bashad, and some began targeting the Shiite Iraqis in Damascus - beheadings, the whole shot, just like in neighboring Iraq. So many remaining Shiite Iraqis fled Syria. What I have seen as the official census in 2012 was 200k Iraqi refugees in Syria, most in Damascus and nearby. As we have seen by the refugee counts since, that was probably an underestimate.

Still doesn't change the fact that Europe, Canada and the US are owed tens of thousands of square kilometres in territory, if Russia and its allies want to keep the land and don't want to let those refugees return to their homes.

From the refugees's pov, they would be owed tens of thousands of square kilometers in Russia, Europe, Canada, and the US.

 

[Schmelzer]

So why not increase the supply of weapons to vetted secularist militias who are actively involved both in fighting ISIS as well as Assad?

Good idea. I'm on board. Like who? Anybody not allied with Iran?

Good idea to increase supply to terrorists, in violation of any remains of international law? And in reality supply to Al Qaeda?
https://sofrep.com/63764/us-special...-disastrously-wrong-with-covert-ops-in-syria/

“Nobody believes in it. You’re like, ‘Fuck this,’” a former Green Beret says of America’s covert and clandestine programs to train and arm Syrian militias. “Everyone on the ground knows they are jihadis. No one on the ground believes in this mission or this effort, and they know they are just training the next generation of jihadis, so they are sabotaging it by saying, ‘Fuck it, who cares?’”

“I don’t want to be responsible for Nusra guys saying they were trained by Americans,” the Green Beret added.

More is behind a paywall, fortunately I can read what seems to be a Russian translation for free at http://polismi.ru/politika/liniya-p...taty-sirijskikh-dzhikhadistov-vooruzhali.html Really interesting reading.

Myself, I lean toward adopting the Kurds in general, even if they are hard to "vet" and not really secular, and not betraying them this time.

Maybe too late. They are now asking the Russians and Assad to forgive them Hasaka, but this will not be for free. To get Russian support again, they really have to make sure that they will not cooperate with the US anymore. That's the usual way: If you betray Putin, you will nonetheless get a new offer, but this offer will be much worse for you. In the actual situation, there would be an obvious condition for cooperation with Syria/Russia: No more cooperation with the US.

In the North of Aleppo, a nice hill has been captured, which controls the Jundal roundabout South of it as well as the Awija district North of it, so that these gains of the last days seem much more safe now.

 

[iceaura]

Good idea to increase supply to terrorists, in violation of any remains of international law? And in reality supply to Al Qaeda?

Of course not. He specified "vetted". That's why I asked him for suggestions - see if he knew of any.

Maybe too late. They are now asking the Russians and Assad to forgive them Hasaka, but this will not be for free. To get Russian support again, they really have to make sure that they will not cooperate with the US anymore. That's the usual way: If you betray Putin, you will nonetheless get a new offer, but this offer will be much worse for you. In the actual situation, there would be an obvious condition for cooperation with Syria/Russia: No more cooperation with the US.

But they are not idiots, Syria has been an enemy since forever, and Russia (like any organized criminal enterprise) is a bad ally. So "no friends but the mountains" may guide their decisions, and the US has the inside track.

 

[CptBork]

Of course not. He specified "vetted". That's why I asked him for suggestions - see if he knew of any.

How about we start with the easy choices? Crippling sanctions on Russian banks and industries across the board, with the aim of forcing either an abrupt 180 degree change in behaviour/regime, or else economic collapse inhibiting further expansionist ambitions and possibly reversing some of the recent land grabs and mass expulsions. As has occasionally been noted by far more authoritative sources than myself, some arm-twisting may be required in order to force all potential intermediaries to cooperate or else lose their own access in turn; intermediate nations and corporations are the chief reasons/correlators for cases where economic sanctions have failed in the past, and therefore they must also be closed off from the loop.

As the old saying goes: Hit 'em where it hurts, in the wallet.

But they are not idiots, Syria has been an enemy since forever, and Russia (like any organized criminal enterprise) is a bad ally. So "no friends but the mountains" may guide their decisions, and the US has the inside track.

I believe it's imperative for the US to offer whatever military protection is necessary for the specific case of its Kurdish allies and their basic rights, or it will have no further credibility or positive influence in the region.

 

[iceaura]

How about we start with the easy choices? Crippling sanctions on Russian banks and industries across the board, with the aim of forcing either an abrupt 180 degree change in behaviour/regime, or else economic collapse inhibiting further expansionist ambitions and possibly reversing some of the recent land grabs and mass expulsions.

So you don't know of any Syrian rebel groups the US can safely, reasonably, and effectively arm either.

I believe it's imperative for the US to offer whatever military protection is necessary for the specific case of its Kurdish allies and their basic rights, or it will have no further credibility or positive influence in the region.

Including the Kurdish nationalists, when they decide to split up Iraq and incorporate pieces of the neighboring States for their own? Last I checked, the Iraqi Kurds were still flying their own flag in their territory - not the national flag of Iraq.

 

[CptBork]

So you don't know of any Syrian rebel groups the US can safely, reasonably, and effectively arm either

How did "start with" become "I don't know"? You've been piling up far too many syntax objections and avoiding rational discussion. I believe there are several elements within the FSA who have pushed for a secular, democratic, inclusive Syria from the beginning, and who have long helped the US fight ISIS there, despite being almost completely abandoned in the face of Russia and Assad at the same time (other than being provided with small numbers of anti-tank missiles). However, I'm not in the CIA and can't personally name anyone, nor will I rely on one or two random, potentially racist low-level guys within a vast operation to accurately identify the political ideals of thousands of rebel fighters from diverse backgrounds, like how Schmelzer and all his fellow Kremlin propagandists practically orgasm every time they find a single liar to back their fairy tales.

Including the Kurdish nationalists, when they decide to split up Iraq and incorporate pieces of the neighboring States for their own? Last I checked, the Iraqi Kurds were still flying their own flag in their territory - not the national flag of Iraq.

Why does practically every other ethnicity in the world get to determine itself, but the Kurds don't? Take the ethnic Kurdish regions of Iran, Iraq, Turkey and Syria, put them all together and you have a nation practically as big and powerful as the afforementioned 4 occupiers currently carving up its land just like Russia, Austria and Prussia once carved up Poland. If Turkey doesn't respect basic human rights including the UN-backed right of self-determination, it should be booted out of NATO and sent on its merry way.

 

[CptBork]

Oh and Schmelzer, if I support ISIS as you claim, then why is it Bashar Assad who buys their oil, gas and electricity with Russian money?

 

[iceaura]

How did "start with" become "I don't know"?

By not continuing to the part where you provide the missing information.

Why does practically every other ethnicity in the world get to determine itself, but the Kurds don't?

Because their economic, political, and tribal loyalties stretch across jealous and defended national boundaries (a deliberate arrangement, by colonial powers), and because their territory includes valuable oil deposits and other resources coveted by the more powerful.

If Turkey doesn't respect basic human rights including the UN-backed right of self-determination, it should be booted out of NATO and sent on its merry way.

The fact that recognizing the Kurds as a nation might very well mean such significant dislocations and risks as booting Turkey out of NATO - and into alliance with the other opponents of Kurdish self-determination - is where the question rests.

 

[CptBork]

By not continuing to the part where you provide the missing information.

If I started discussing hypothetical military scenarios, you'd systematically object to each of them for one reason or another. I was looking to first at least establish some sort of common ground about moving forward in ending this crisis.

Because their economic, political, and tribal loyalties stretch across jealous and defended national boundaries (a deliberate arrangement, by colonial powers), and because their territory includes valuable oil deposits and other resources coveted by the more powerful.

Sounds like you agree that it's not a fair and just situation, and it ultimately requires rectification.

The fact that recognizing the Kurds as a nation might very well mean such significant dislocations and risks as booting Turkey out of NATO - and into alliance with the other opponents of Kurdish self-determination - is where the question rests.

Hey, you're finally showing some understanding about how reality works! Any change to the status quo has a price, whodathunkit? Well as you seem to acknowledge in plenty of other cases, immoral actions like supporting nations that violate human rights has its own nasty long-term consequences, and that kind of activity includes ignoring Turkey's longstanding abuse of the Kurds. If Turkey then wants to crack down even harder on the Kurds in response, the ultimate price they pay for it will increase in proportion once all accounts are finally settled.

Let's start making big decisions based on morals and principles, not Walmart discounts. I've come to the realization that a great many problems with Western democracy and the dinner table complaints about them can be summarized as: "Why does the guy I keep voting for keep doing the same thing over and over?"

 

[iceaura]

If I started discussing hypothetical military scenarios, you'd systematically object to each of them for one reason or another.

What you were asked for is some evidence of the existence of the kind of Syrian force your specific military scenario required - just a name would do. Because by all appearances to some of us, no such forces exist.

I was looking to first at least establish some sort of common ground about moving forward in ending this crisis.

The common ground cannot rest in imaginary circumstances - we don't have the same imaginations.

Sounds like you agree that it's not a fair and just situation, and it ultimately requires rectification.

I have always described it as an unjust situation, as part of my standard approach and descriptions going back as far as I've been around. It can of course remain as it is, without ever being "rectified", for a thousand years.

Hey, you're finally showing some understanding about how reality works! Any change to the status quo has a price, whodathunkit?

Am I now. Just recently. How about that.

Let's start making big decisions based on morals and principles, not Walmart discounts. I've come to the realization that a great many problems with Western democracy and the dinner table complaints about them can be summarized as: "Why does the guy I keep voting for keep doing the same thing over and over?"

I can link you to liberal and lefty blogs full of such analysis going back ten years or more, if you like. Usually it's asked in the other direction: why do those guys keep voting for the politicians who keep doing them wrong over and over?

At any rate, in Syria the US had better not do the same thing as created the mess, over and over.

 

[Schmelzer]

Of course not. He specified "vetted".

As if this would change anything. A main problem in various ceasefire and humanitarian help negotiations is that the West insist that the Syrian side is not allowed to look inside. And, of course, the Syrian side knows why, and therefore refuses to accept such proposals.

 

[iceaura]

As if this would change anything. A main problem in various ceasefire and humanitarian help negotiations is that the West insist that the Syrian side is not allowed to look inside. And, of course, the Syrian side knows why, and therefore refuses to accept such proposals.

So far all humanitarian help, regardless of source or transparency has been prevented by the Russians and Syrian government. Meanwhile, the Russians as well as the Syrians have targeted hospitals and the like.

 

[Schmelzer]

So far all humanitarian help, regardless of source or transparency has been prevented by the Russians and Syrian government. Meanwhile, the Russians as well as the Syrians have targeted hospitals and the like.

Nonsense. This is simply what the propaganda sells, nothing serious.

 

[Schmelzer]

https://www.almasdarnews.com/articl...se-around-rebel-held-douma-captures-new-town/ claims the Syrian army has taken the town Reyhan in East Ghouta. It is in the region marked as (1) in the following map:

If this is correct, and remains in Syrian hands, it would mean the East Ghouta terrorists appear splitted into two parts. This would mean that the small part (Tel Kurdi, a hill which allows fire control of a lot around, marked 2) will be finished in quite short time. It is not clear yet if the split is complete, but what I have read the attack on Reyhan came from above sides. One has to expect counterattacks anyway, given the importance of Tel Kurdi, and there may be even tunnels from Tel Kurdi to Douma, which would be hard to detect and could be used to defend Tel Kurdi, so this is not sure, we will see.

The progress in Northern Hama continues, the question is not if something was taken, but if two, three or four villages have been taken. This despite a big counterattack against one village taken yesterday, which was repelled.

In Aleppo there is an attack in the South, no map seen yet about the results. In the North, I have seen that the factories and the Electric station on the picture in #187 are also under SAA control.

An offensive of Daesh against villages around the Kuweiris airport has been repelled.

In Latakia, the terrorists have started a big offensive, taken two villages, and already lost them again.

 

[CptBork]

Nonsense. This is simply what the propaganda sells, nothing serious.

There, see? I called it just a few posts ago. Most of us can read you like an open book, because your fascist agenda is expressed in plain view for everyone here to see. Putin is God, anything anyone says against him is heresy, we can all sleep soundly knowing that he's got everything taken care of.