Ok. MacM I told you many times that you misinterpreted the quote I presented. But you still claimed that you didn't. Here is the probablity presented by Julian Huxley, a very famous Evolutionist.
Huxley, Julian, Evolution in Action (New York: Harper and Row, 1953), 182 pp.
"A proportion of favorable mutations of one in a thousand does not sound much, but is probably generous, since so many mutations are lethal, preventing the organism living at all, and the great majority of the rest throw the machinery slightly out of gear. And a total of a million mutational steps sounds a great deal, but is probably an understatement--after all, that only means one step every two thousand years during biological time as a whole. However, let us take these figures as being reasonable estimates. With this proportion, but without any selection, we should clearly have to breed a thousand strains to get one favorable mutation; a million strains (a thousand squared) to get one containing two favorable mutations; and so on, up to a thousand to the millionth power to get one containing a million.
"Of course, this could not really happen, but it is a useful way of visualizing the fantastic odds against getting a number of favorable mutations in one strain through pure chance alone. A thousand to the millionth power, when written out, becomes the figure 1 with three million noughts after it; and that would take three large volumes of about 500 pages each, just to print! Actually, this is a meaninglessly large figure, but it shows what a degree of improbability natural selection has to surmount, and can circumvent. One with three million noughts after it is the measure of the unlikeliness of a horse--the odds against it happening at all. No one would bet on anything so improbable happening: and yet it has happened! It has happened, thanks to the working of natural selection and the properties of living substance which make natural selection inevitable!" pp. 45-46
To get 1 million favorable mutations then the probability is 1000 to the millionth power. I was going to write this in number. But it's just too long. When I wrote it in word. I got 906 pages.
Now see that Huxley showed us the improbability. And even he admitted that this was imporbable. But at the end he asserted that "it has happened", without any proof. Now here is a person who knows that it is basically impossible, but still believes it happened. He proved the improbability, but he still believes without proof. Stupid, right?
But i want you to look at the probablity. And I want you to notice that it is only for a horse. What do you think the probablity is going to be for a human? I think it is probably another 5 million or more zeros at the end. Oh well. I hope you see the impossibility of this. And that you misinterpreted he verse.
Here is another quote regarding the improbability that Huxley provided.
"And, let us remind you who find such odds ridiculous (even if you are reassured by Mr. Huxley), that this figure was calculated for the evolution of a horse! How many more volumes of zeros would be required by Mr. Huxley to produce a human being? And then you would have just one horse and one human being and, unless the mathematician wishes to add in the probability for the evolution of all the plants and animals that are necessary to support a horse and a man, you would have a sterile world where neither could have survived any stage of its supposed evolution! What have we now - the figure 1 followed by a thousand volumes of zeros? Then add another thousand volumes for the improbability of the earth having all the necessary properties for life built into it. And add another thousand volumes for the improbability of the sun, and the moon, and the stars. Add other thousands for the evolution of all the thoughts that man can have, all the objective and subjective reality that ebbs and flows in us like part of the pulsebeat of an inscrutable cosmos!
"Add them all in and you long ago stopped talking about rational thought, much less scientific evidence. Yet, Simpson, Huxley, Dobzhansky, Mayr, and dozens of others continue to tell us that is the way it had to be! They have retreated from all the points which ever lent any semblance of credibility to the evolutionary theory. Now they busy themselves with esoteric mathematical formulations based on population genetics, random drift, isolation, and other ploys which have a probability of accounting for life on earth of minus zero! They clutter our libraries, and press on the minds of people everywhere an animated waxen image of a theory that has been dead for over a decade.
"Evolution has no claim whatsoever to being a science. It is time all this nonsense ceased. It is time to bury the corpse. It is time to shift the books to the humorous fiction section of the libraries." The Truth God or Evolution pp. 39, 40.
The main thing I want you to be concentrated on is the improbability that Huxley provided. And if you understand then I think this would end the debate on the probability of Mutation. Then we can move on to something else, if there is anything. Because we've already covered Natural Selection, and this would cover Mutation.
I hope you understand the improbability. and that you really did misinterpret the quote I presented before.
Peace be unto you
Huxley, Julian, Evolution in Action (New York: Harper and Row, 1953), 182 pp.
"A proportion of favorable mutations of one in a thousand does not sound much, but is probably generous, since so many mutations are lethal, preventing the organism living at all, and the great majority of the rest throw the machinery slightly out of gear. And a total of a million mutational steps sounds a great deal, but is probably an understatement--after all, that only means one step every two thousand years during biological time as a whole. However, let us take these figures as being reasonable estimates. With this proportion, but without any selection, we should clearly have to breed a thousand strains to get one favorable mutation; a million strains (a thousand squared) to get one containing two favorable mutations; and so on, up to a thousand to the millionth power to get one containing a million.
"Of course, this could not really happen, but it is a useful way of visualizing the fantastic odds against getting a number of favorable mutations in one strain through pure chance alone. A thousand to the millionth power, when written out, becomes the figure 1 with three million noughts after it; and that would take three large volumes of about 500 pages each, just to print! Actually, this is a meaninglessly large figure, but it shows what a degree of improbability natural selection has to surmount, and can circumvent. One with three million noughts after it is the measure of the unlikeliness of a horse--the odds against it happening at all. No one would bet on anything so improbable happening: and yet it has happened! It has happened, thanks to the working of natural selection and the properties of living substance which make natural selection inevitable!" pp. 45-46
To get 1 million favorable mutations then the probability is 1000 to the millionth power. I was going to write this in number. But it's just too long. When I wrote it in word. I got 906 pages.
Now see that Huxley showed us the improbability. And even he admitted that this was imporbable. But at the end he asserted that "it has happened", without any proof. Now here is a person who knows that it is basically impossible, but still believes it happened. He proved the improbability, but he still believes without proof. Stupid, right?
But i want you to look at the probablity. And I want you to notice that it is only for a horse. What do you think the probablity is going to be for a human? I think it is probably another 5 million or more zeros at the end. Oh well. I hope you see the impossibility of this. And that you misinterpreted he verse.
Here is another quote regarding the improbability that Huxley provided.
"And, let us remind you who find such odds ridiculous (even if you are reassured by Mr. Huxley), that this figure was calculated for the evolution of a horse! How many more volumes of zeros would be required by Mr. Huxley to produce a human being? And then you would have just one horse and one human being and, unless the mathematician wishes to add in the probability for the evolution of all the plants and animals that are necessary to support a horse and a man, you would have a sterile world where neither could have survived any stage of its supposed evolution! What have we now - the figure 1 followed by a thousand volumes of zeros? Then add another thousand volumes for the improbability of the earth having all the necessary properties for life built into it. And add another thousand volumes for the improbability of the sun, and the moon, and the stars. Add other thousands for the evolution of all the thoughts that man can have, all the objective and subjective reality that ebbs and flows in us like part of the pulsebeat of an inscrutable cosmos!
"Add them all in and you long ago stopped talking about rational thought, much less scientific evidence. Yet, Simpson, Huxley, Dobzhansky, Mayr, and dozens of others continue to tell us that is the way it had to be! They have retreated from all the points which ever lent any semblance of credibility to the evolutionary theory. Now they busy themselves with esoteric mathematical formulations based on population genetics, random drift, isolation, and other ploys which have a probability of accounting for life on earth of minus zero! They clutter our libraries, and press on the minds of people everywhere an animated waxen image of a theory that has been dead for over a decade.
"Evolution has no claim whatsoever to being a science. It is time all this nonsense ceased. It is time to bury the corpse. It is time to shift the books to the humorous fiction section of the libraries." The Truth God or Evolution pp. 39, 40.
The main thing I want you to be concentrated on is the improbability that Huxley provided. And if you understand then I think this would end the debate on the probability of Mutation. Then we can move on to something else, if there is anything. Because we've already covered Natural Selection, and this would cover Mutation.
I hope you understand the improbability. and that you really did misinterpret the quote I presented before.
Peace be unto you