Keep in mind that if people become completely irrational and open everything back up with no restrictions, the peak happens _sooner._ In which case Trump can proclaim victory sooner.
Corona Virus 2019-nCoV
- Thread starter Quantum Quack
- Start date
09/05/02020
Global milestone:
4,006,410 CC ( growth of about 2.46% per 24 hours)
275,698 CFR ( growth of about 2.06% per 24 hours)
====
2,354,483 active and contagious
Notes:
All data is or could be under stating the situation on the ground by an estimated factor of 10 ( According to data scientists)
Hot growth spots:
USA
Russia
Brazil
and other
Global milestone:
4,006,410 CC ( growth of about 2.46% per 24 hours)
275,698 CFR ( growth of about 2.06% per 24 hours)
====
2,354,483 active and contagious
Notes:
All data is or could be under stating the situation on the ground by an estimated factor of 10 ( According to data scientists)
Hot growth spots:
USA
Russia
Brazil
and other
Do you think Trump's Presidency will survive the process of reaching the peak?
The human and economic disaster today is bad enough in the USA and expected to get much worse, regardless of Trump's deluded optimism.
Vague reports of infection in the White House have been published. Given Trump's brash approach to social distancing and PPE his chances of surviving this pandemic are quite slim IMO
perhaps anti-trump voter complacency will also peak...
09/05/2020
Mean while, Australian Government launches it's COVIDSafe lock down relaxation road map.
All states set their own time frame etc.
No international travel in or out for the foreseeable future..with out a vaccine.
Exception: Possible international students depending on quarantine requirements yet to be defined.
After which the long transformation of the Australian economy will continue for many years.
Some states are already relaxing... with some success.
Other states are sticking to their own schedule to starting the relaxation process.
Mean while, Australian Government launches it's COVIDSafe lock down relaxation road map.
All states set their own time frame etc.
No international travel in or out for the foreseeable future..with out a vaccine.
Exception: Possible international students depending on quarantine requirements yet to be defined.
After which the long transformation of the Australian economy will continue for many years.
Some states are already relaxing... with some success.
Other states are sticking to their own schedule to starting the relaxation process.
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Gosh! I just found out that the UK is only now considering quarantining international arrivals...and that the air lines are rejecting the idea of any restrictions...
It is little wonder they have had such a hard time of it...IMO
11-05-2020
UK
215,260 CC (+3,896 new) Yesterday... growth of new cases 1.8% daily
31,587 Deaths ( + 346 new over 24hours)
183,329 active cases
1,559 serious/critical
It is little wonder they have had such a hard time of it...IMO
11-05-2020
UK
215,260 CC (+3,896 new) Yesterday... growth of new cases 1.8% daily
31,587 Deaths ( + 346 new over 24hours)
183,329 active cases
1,559 serious/critical
Second wave example:
Singapore:
22,460 cc (+ 756 new 24 hours) 3.35%
20 deaths
As far as early relaxation of lock down going on in various places around the globe, we can only hope the science is wrong...
Singapore:
22,460 cc (+ 756 new 24 hours) 3.35%
20 deaths
As far as early relaxation of lock down going on in various places around the globe, we can only hope the science is wrong...
Why do you insist on misrepresenting things and then looking for a sensationalist view? The UK has had no need to quarantine international arrivals because everyone is effectively quarantined, due to our lockdown measures. The announcement of a 14-day quarantine is to ensure new arrivals don't go straight in to the relaxed measures the rest of the country are going to start enjoying.
The airlines are also not rejecting the idea of any restrictions, only those that simply don't make sense, like leaving the middle seats empty, or make air travel uneconomic such that they'd be better off not flying at all. Give them a restriction that makes such sense and they'll likely agree to it.
So please stop with your rather stupid interpretations and your sensationalist approach to stories. You're like the worst kind of tabloid when people want to read serious broad-sheets.
like I said, it is little wonder that the UK was and is having such a hard time of it...
International arrivals going straight into the population even when under lock down just means your spread of infection is dependent on local and other nations COVID situations.
Trump will declare victory whenever seems best, regardless of physical fact.
If the virus is released like that the first peak will be higher as well as sooner - and the US will be overwhelmed by it. Trump may gain less by victory in that situation - the experience of losing access to medical care while watching neighbors get buried in mass graves, possibly even seeing borders and travel denied to Americans by other countries (no escape), and not least getting sick oneself, will be fresh in the minds of almost all Americans from about three months after the release, or right around the next vote.
And that's just the first peak. This virus is adapting - there is no sign at all that it will be limited to one wave of infection.
Republican presidents of the last fifty years may have survived their disasters, politically, because the disasters did not hit their hardest until after the key re-election that allowed news management and history revision. If Trump releases this virus now or soon, the hard hit will have arrived by November. That's taking a chance with the news management.
- - -
Not flying at all makes perfectly good sense.
FFS.... you really don't have a clue what you're talking about, do you? The current lockdown, if one does it correctly, is self-quarantine (barring the people in your household). So why quarantine people separately at the moment when they can self-quarantine at home to the same effect? Only when the general population enjoy a relaxing of the lockdown measures does it make sense to separately quarantine new arrivals. You are simply looking for senstationalist headlines where none exist, QQ.
If you want to post facts, great, go for it, but enough of these conspiracy, or other half-assed, theories that you subsequently think you're extracting from the data.
exchemist
Valued Senior Member
Back in your bath chair, Grandad.
If you have a domestic infection rate higher than the country the visitors come from, which has been the situation in the UK for a while, the new arrivals don't materially affect anything.
It starts to make sense to stop infection arriving from outside once you have got your domestic rate down enough that arrivals push it up. As the UK gets towards test-and-trace, it becomes important to identify each individual case. So at that point, which we are close to reaching, you want to control the overseas arrivals.
No argument here. Some airlines will undoubtedly fail, and governments need to be strong about not bailing out players in what might well be a permanently contracting industry.
You have no idea just how big that IF is... do you?
Voluntary self isolation of international travelers just doesn't work. It has to be enforced. So we found out...the hard way and so shall you with out a doubt...
The vast majority of new cases were from international travelers, returning Australians and all the people they infected on the planes/ships and once they got here. We only started to see a reduction once we closed our borders and put repatriated Australians and those inflight at the time into forced and guarded hotel accommodation for 14 days...
I don' t need to create sensational headlines... you guys are doing that all on your own...
To approach a national quarantine against a virus like this in such a half hearted manner is why your stats are so terrifying..
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Voluntary self-isolation works as well for new arrivees as it does for the rest of the population.
Australia reacted much earlier, sure, and those measures at that time helped contain it. The UK did those measures as well, if you recall, but much later in the game. And once the spread got too far those measures became less important. Such that they were no longer required compared to what the general population was already doing.
As you yourself say: "the vast majority of new cases were from international travelers..." - that is simply not the case in the UK, and hasn't been for quite a while!
As exchemist has pointed out - only when each new case coming in has a significant impact is enforced quarantine useful, and that time is approaching. But while the UK incurs 5,000 new cases a day, incurring 5,001 in a day is of little importance to the situation.
You are looking at stats, drawing your half-assed theories, asking sensationalist questions, and simply can't help yourself from pointing at things and going: "ooh, terrifying! Ah, that's terrible! Wow, that's shocking!" Recall that not too long ago you were asking if the UK economy will survive!
In what way are the stats "terrifying", QQ? In what way is the approach of the UK "half hearted"? Or are you really just comparing to Australia and going "oh, look, the numbers are much worse, therefore their approach must be half hearted and their situation terrifying!"?
Post facts. Post well thought out opinion based upon those stats. Just stop with the hysterics, fear mongering, and sensationalism.
when it comes to contact tracing regional movement to prevent the whack a mole problem has to be prevented. International and internal borders have to be enforced. People have just got to stop moving around.
If your lock down was adequately complied with you would have just about killed off the virus by now.
But it wasn't and it hasn't.
Even if the nation was thoroughly infected the virus has a time limit. ( if it does not reproduce)
If people keep coming in to continue the infection cycle you will never get on top of it...
There is nothing half arsed about it...
14-30 days would be all it takes... but no.. and feeding the beast with travelers from a badly infected Europe/USA and where ever is just plain nuts....
So economically you have an extended hit and on top of that you have an extended lock down with high death toll and so on.
This is what the Australian and New Zealand governments sort to avoid.
Currently our internal and international borders are solid and have been for a couple of months.
Do the math, think about it and work it out...
Bozo made a big mistake. Human nature is what it is...
We learned the hard way...the Ruby Princess Cruise ship disembarked with voluntary lock down being the go and we ended up with over 600 + cases and 20 fatalities.
That is 1 in 10 cases directly related to noncompliance and bureaucrats badly underestimating the seriousness of the situation.
So we enforced our borders and put all arrivals into 14 days mandatory quarantine in hotels and even then some tried to escape...
People are people and their behavior in a crisis is very rarely ideal.
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I still am...
You can go on about contract tracing all you want, but the UK, USA, and other countries, have long since been past the point where that became worthwhile.
QQ, until you realise that NZ and Australia are in a different situation to the the UK, USA, Europe, etc, you're simply talking your usual garbage. Actions taken by NZ and Australia made sense for the situation they were in - where contract tracing makes all the difference. Comparing that to countries that probably had more infectious people than anyone realised even before their first case was identified, where contract tracing has been of little use once the cases got to a certain level, and where a handful of additional infected people will have made next to no difference to the numbers, the rates, the timescale... well, making comparisons and judging actions, as you are doing, is just laughable.
The UK rate is dropping, and as such it now becomes sensible - not half-hearted - to impose a strict quarantine on new arrivals, as new cases brought in would otherwise have an impact. Contact tracing is now becoming sensible again as well, although a better means still needs to be developed.
It makes sense to ease restrictions in a coordinated and controlled manner, so as not to risk the infection rate rising from what at the moment is a manageable level. Because that is the main difference between some countries and others: some are in the position where they have minimal cases, and their priority is to stop the spread, kill off the virus... and for others they are in the position where they are trying to reduce the rate of spread such that the health service can manage.
If you compare the actions of one group with the other, and judge out of context, then you're just opening yourself to ridicule.
QQ, until you realise that NZ and Australia are in a different situation to the the UK, USA, Europe, etc, you're simply talking your usual garbage. Actions taken by NZ and Australia made sense for the situation they were in - where contract tracing makes all the difference. Comparing that to countries that probably had more infectious people than anyone realised even before their first case was identified, where contract tracing has been of little use once the cases got to a certain level, and where a handful of additional infected people will have made next to no difference to the numbers, the rates, the timescale... well, making comparisons and judging actions, as you are doing, is just laughable.
The UK rate is dropping, and as such it now becomes sensible - not half-hearted - to impose a strict quarantine on new arrivals, as new cases brought in would otherwise have an impact. Contact tracing is now becoming sensible again as well, although a better means still needs to be developed.
It makes sense to ease restrictions in a coordinated and controlled manner, so as not to risk the infection rate rising from what at the moment is a manageable level. Because that is the main difference between some countries and others: some are in the position where they have minimal cases, and their priority is to stop the spread, kill off the virus... and for others they are in the position where they are trying to reduce the rate of spread such that the health service can manage.
If you compare the actions of one group with the other, and judge out of context, then you're just opening yourself to ridicule.