Corona Virus 2019-nCoV

[Quantum Quack]

Bells,
This should make you feel better....

A bit more research revealed the following:

As for the general notion that the virus has been bioengineered, there’s no evidence that’s true. On the contrary, as we’ve explained before, all lines of evidence point to the virus coming from an animal. That’s consistent with what scientists have learned about the ecology of coronaviruses in the last 20 years, Sheahan said, including SARS and MERS — and it fits with the fact that the virus shares 96% of its genome with a bat virus.
...
An engineered virus, he explained, would likely have a “distorted” amino acid to nucleotide ratio, and also have changes focused in on a “subset of genes.” In other words, when engineering occurs, it’s usually to bring about a meaningful change to the virus — but there’s no evidence of that in the 2019-nCoV genome. ​

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/02/b...ries-claim-new-coronavirus-was-bioengineered/

So the hypothesis I posed is no longer valid. IMO

 

[LaurieAG]

In Australia 5 out of 15 infected people have recovered with no deaths recorded.

If you have access to the dashboard from John Hopkins (it's more up to date than the WHO data) you will also see that the trend of confirmed infections in mainland China has started to plateau.

Latest figures 43,111 Infected, 1018 dead and 4,065 recovered. Ratio's of Infected/dead still decreasing and Recovered/dead still increasing.

 

[Quantum Quack]

In Australia 5 out of 15 infected people have recovered with no deaths recorded.

If you have access to the dashboard from John Hopkins (it's more up to date than the WHO data) you will also see that the trend of confirmed infections in mainland China has started to plateau.

Latest figures 43,111 Infected, 1018 dead and 4,065 recovered. Ratio's of Infected/dead still decreasing and Recovered/dead still increasing.

Unfortunately the assessments by WHO and JH is premised on figures provided by the Chinese authorities. Figures that they them selves can not be certain of given the nature of what they are facing. (many sources)
However if we assume a degree of accuracy is present then it does seem that there is room for optimism...

 

[iceaura]

Waves of infection - peaks and troughs - are common in epidemics. Same thing happens inside the human body in some fevers - they peak and ebb, but sometimes the trend is up rather than down.

This one is going to hang around a while. Probably. Even with this good news of ebb.

 

[Sarkus]

and no city wide lock downs, establishment of quarantine zones ( Australia ) border closures or evacuations etc. Not to mention building two hospitals in 14 days or so...
Please explain why this is happening for such an incidental virus such as this coronavirus and not for a much more deadly virus the flu?
I am confident there is a rational explanation for such an extreme reaction by the global community.

The concern here is that it’s somewhat more deadly than regular flu, and if left unchecked could result in hundreds of thousands, if not millions, dying around the world (i.e. if it acts and if it is treated as one might a regular influenza virus).
Of course, being a novel virus, we’re still learning about it. It may be nothing like a regular flu virus in transmission, and extrapolating deaths per year as if it was just a more deadly version may not be appropriate. But because we don’t know, we certainly shouldn’t ignore it.

To put this into perspective, and as has been noted previously: influenza strains have killed c.10k this season already in the US. It is expected that c.20 million US citizens will contract the flu this year, with a mortality rate of c.0.1%, meaning c.20k deaths expected. That 20 million is after those who can get, or want, flu-jabs to help prevent it.

This novel coronavirus currently has a mortality rate closer to 2%, and no known vaccine (yet?). If it was left to spread as per a regular influenza virus, you might expect 400k deaths in the US alone... this year... possibly more once you factor in those who would have got regular flu but were vaccinated.
Then next year we repeat the effect... another 400k+ people. In just the US.

Ready to take it seriously yet?

Also to consider, this coronavirus is 20-times more deadly than common flu, but Ebola is only 20-times more deadly than this coronavirus (40% mortality rate). Now imagine Ebola running unchecked in a dense population of 11 million!

Does that help provide you with an understandable rationale?


Hopefully this coronavirus strain will burn itself out, much like the SARS outbreak did. But the MERS outbreak in 2012 is still affecting the Middle East.

 

[billvon]

are you saying that the current quarantine of an entire nation from the rest of the world will be insufficient and that the spread of this bug will be comprehensively global?

Yes. Like the flu.

Perhaps you could offer a rational as to why it isn't currently indicating such?

Because it started in China.

 

[Quantum Quack]

The concern here is that it’s somewhat more deadly than regular flu, and if left unchecked could result in hundreds of thousands, if not millions, dying around the world (i.e. if it acts and if it is treated as one might a regular influenza virus).
Of course, being a novel virus, we’re still learning about it. It may be nothing like a regular flu virus in transmission, and extrapolating deaths per year as if it was just a more deadly version may not be appropriate. But because we don’t know, we certainly shouldn’t ignore it.

To put this into perspective, and as has been noted previously: influenza strains have killed c.10k this season already in the US. It is expected that c.20 million US citizens will contract the flu this year, with a mortality rate of c.0.1%, meaning c.20k deaths expected. That 20 million is after those who can get, or want, flu-jabs to help prevent it.

This novel coronavirus currently has a mortality rate closer to 2%, and no known vaccine (yet?). If it was left to spread as per a regular influenza virus, you might expect 400k deaths in the US alone... this year... possibly more once you factor in those who would have got regular flu but were vaccinated.
Then next year we repeat the effect... another 400k+ people. In just the US.

Ready to take it seriously yet?

Also to consider, this coronavirus is 20-times more deadly than common flu, but Ebola is only 20-times more deadly than this coronavirus (40% mortality rate). Now imagine Ebola running unchecked in a dense population of 11 million!

Does that help provide you with an understandable rationale?


Hopefully this coronavirus strain will burn itself out, much like the SARS outbreak did. But the MERS outbreak in 2012 is still affecting the Middle East.

as usual I need to ask you to check the context of the post you are commenting on...
It was part of a discussion with Billvon where he indicated that the Coronavirus, now officially named by the WHO as COVID-19, as being less serious than the flu. My post was only seeking him to explain his position.

That is the crappy aspect about the integrity of this forums posting where by any post can be taken deliberately out of context and used to flame and defame someone...
Suggestion: Read the thread and note the discussions going on before taking posts out of context because they fit some sort of agenda.

At least you are not letting your fear of this bug contaminate your objectivity too much. Unlike other posters here.

 

[Quantum Quack]

Yes. Like the flu.

Currently it is not like the flu. You should know that. Certainly my own doctor knows that.

Why do you seek to scare people with your incorrect assessment..If it were a flu type contagion the situation is considerably more scary.

If it were like the flu the current quarantine methods would be totally ineffective... due to aerosol dispersion.

The historical mapping of this illness globally does not suggest aerosol dispersion.

 

[billvon]

The concern here is that it’s somewhat more deadly than regular flu, and if left unchecked could result in hundreds of thousands, if not millions, dying around the world (i.e. if it acts and if it is treated as one might a regular influenza virus).

Agreed. Which makes it very much like an influenza virus, which kills about half a million every year around the world. Which is a good reason to not treat it (or the regular influenza virus) as "just an influenza virus."

This novel coronavirus currently has a mortality rate closer to 2%, and no known vaccine (yet?). If it was left to spread as per a regular influenza virus, you might expect 400k deaths in the US alone... this year... possibly more once you factor in those who would have got regular flu but were vaccinated.
Then next year we repeat the effect... another 400k+ people. In just the US.

Perhaps. It could also kill everyone in the US. It could also kill no one in the US. Both extremes are unlikely.

Ready to take it seriously yet?

Who's not taking it seriously? It is a serious disease. So is the flu. Hand-washing, staying home when you are sick, eating a balanced diet and getting regular exercise, and going to the doctor when you get sick are the best defenses.

Also to consider, this coronavirus is 20-times more deadly than common flu, but Ebola is only 20-times more deadly than this coronavirus (40% mortality rate). Now imagine Ebola running unchecked in a dense population of 11 million!

Imagine indeed! A disease 5% as deadly as Ebola, which killed 12,000 people.

 

[billvon]

Why do you seek to scare people with your incorrect assessment..

?? I'm not the one trying to scare people here. You are the one running in circles panicking.

If it were like the flu the current quarantine methods would be totally ineffective... due to aerosol dispersion.

And yet you just posted an article claiming that coronavirus DOES spread via aerosols. Do you now doubt that?

 

[Quantum Quack]

WHO SR Sum. 11th Feb. 2020
https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...20200211-sitrep-22-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=fb6d49b1_2

SITUATION IN NUMBERS total and new cases in last 24 hours

• Globally 43 103 confirmed (2560 new)
• China 42 708 confirmed (2484 new) 7333 severe (849 new) 1017 deaths (108 new)
• Outside of China 395 confirmed (76 new) 24 countries 1 death

WHO RISK ASSESSMENT

• China Very High
  
• Regional Level High
  
• Global Level High

It appears that the new cases has continued to fall as a ratio of total confirmed cases. Three consecutive days have indicated this fall in growth. If I am not mistaken this indicates a trend.
This is very positive news if one assumes that the data given to the WHO by the Chinese Authorities is accurate.

billvon
It indicates that this virus is not air borne
It indicates that quarantine methods are indeed effective in controlling the growth.

 

[Quantum Quack]

And yet you just posted an article claiming that coronavirus DOES spread via aerosols. Do you now doubt that?

No integrity!
Read the article and my posts again...

 

[billvon]

No integrity!
Read the article and my posts again...

As you wish! You posted this:

"But The China Daily has reported Shanghai Civil Affairs Bureau deputy head Zeng Qun as confirming the coronavirus can be spread through the air."

Do you now wish to retract that, or say that it was inaccurate?

 

[Quantum Quack]

As you wish! You posted this:

"But The China Daily has reported Shanghai Civil Affairs Bureau deputy head Zeng Qun as confirming the coronavirus can be spread through the air."

Do you now wish to retract that, or say that it was inaccurate?

Dishonest posting Billvon;. PLease use the forums quoting system and apply context.
You want me to retract a quote from the article?
Seriously?

Wuhan is a city of over 10 million people. It is in lock down.
If the virus was airborne estimate deaths?
Compare it with current situation.
Reach a tentative conclusion...

 

[Quantum Quack]

As you wish! You posted this:

"But The China Daily has reported Shanghai Civil Affairs Bureau deputy head Zeng Qun as confirming the coronavirus can be spread through the air."

Do you now wish to retract that, or say that it was inaccurate?

Dishonest posting Billvon. Please use the forums quoting system and apply context.
You want me to retract a quote from the article?
Seriously?

Wuhan is a city of over 10 million people. It is in lock down.
If the virus was airborne estimate deaths?
Compare it with current situation.
Reach a tentative conclusion...

If it were air borne the 15 cases here in Australia would be probably more like in the 1000's by now.

 

[billvon]

Dishonest posting Billvon. Please use the forums quoting system and apply context.

OK. I figure this is a massive waste of space, but if you insist:
=============================================
Perhaps you don't know about the difference between "direct/contact"and "aerosol" transmission...?
From the link I quoted (10th-02--2020):
Authorities previously believed the coronavirus could only be passed on through two ways; direct or contact transmission.
Direct transmission occurs when an individual breathes in the air of an infected patient, while contact transmission requires one to touch an object carrying the virus and then touch their own mouth, nose or eyes.
But The China Daily has reported Shanghai Civil Affairs Bureau deputy head Zeng Qun as confirming the coronavirus can be spread through the air.

src: https://www.sbs.com.au/news/conflic...ial-reportedly-claims-coronavirus-is-airborne

As no doubt you are aware the Chinese Government is notorious for it's censorship of bad news.
===============================================

You want me to retract a quote from the article?

You used that to support your claim that it could now be spread via aerosols, and that surprised you. Are you still surprised by this, and do you still think that the flu CANNOT be spread the same way?

Wuhan is a city of over 10 million people. It is in lock down.
If the virus was airborne estimate deaths?

1018.

Compare it with current situation.
Reach a tentative conclusion...

Current deaths: 1018

Reach the obvious conclusion.

 

[Quantum Quack]

OK. I figure this is a massive waste of space, but if you insist:
=============================================
Perhaps you don't know about the difference between "direct/contact"and "aerosol" transmission...?
From the link I quoted (10th-02--2020):
Authorities previously believed the coronavirus could only be passed on through two ways; direct or contact transmission.
Direct transmission occurs when an individual breathes in the air of an infected patient, while contact transmission requires one to touch an object carrying the virus and then touch their own mouth, nose or eyes.
But The China Daily has reported Shanghai Civil Affairs Bureau deputy head Zeng Qun as confirming the coronavirus can be spread through the air.

src: https://www.sbs.com.au/news/conflic...ial-reportedly-claims-coronavirus-is-airborne

As no doubt you are aware the Chinese Government is notorious for it's censorship of bad news.
===============================================

You used that to support your claim that it could now be spread via aerosols, and that surprised you. Are you still surprised by this, and do you still think that the flu CANNOT be spread the same way?

1018.

Current deaths: 1018

Reach the obvious conclusion.

I never claimed anything. Please show us all where I have claimed that the virus is airborne...

 

[billvon]

I never claimed anything. Please show us all where I have claimed that the virus is airborne...

The places you said that (for example) reports of the virus being air borne by Chinese authorities recently came in.

It's very odd that you are demanding proof of you saying something . . . that is true. I don't think even you know what you are going on about.

 

[Quantum Quack]

The places you said that (for example) reports of the virus being air borne by Chinese authorities recently came in.

It's very odd that you are demanding proof of you saying something . . . that is true. I don't think even you know what you are going on about.

lol..
So your accusation that I claimed something can not be proven and you have the audacity to accuse me of confusion.... lol
sigh!

The article made the claim. I just simply posted the link and quoted from it...
and you are still very confused about the difference between direct and aerosol transmission.
Why is that?

 

[billvon]

and you are still very confused about the difference between direct and aerosol transmission.

I'm not.

Let's do this a simpler way.
What do you think direct transmission is?
What do you think aerosol transmission is?
Do you think COVID can be transmitted by direct transmission?
Do you think COVID can be transmitted by aerosol transmission?