wellwisher, Steve Goddard's sources don't seem to be saying anything wrong. They are non-scientific people trying to report scientific findings and for the most part not seriously distorting the message to the careful reader. What is your issue with these sources?
"The Argus" -- Not a scientific publication. A statement of simple extrapolation without evidence of physical model.
"The New Scientist" -- Not a scientific publication. A statement of simple extrapolation without evidence of physical model.
"The Tuscaloosa News" -- Not a scientific publication. A statement of simple extrapolation without evidence of physical model.
"Joe Romm comment" -- Not a scientific publication. Not refuted. A statement of simple extrapolation without evidence of physical model.
"Wieslaw Maslowski" -- A statement of simple extrapolation without evidence of physical model. In addition, you have misread the graph because the horizontal line is not 0 ice thickness. In fact, within the uncertainty evidenced in the graph, that extrapolation looks
accurate.
"news.nationalgeographic.com" -- Not a scientific publication. A statement of simple extrapolation without evidence of physical model.
"BBC News" -- Not a scientific publication. A statement of simple extrapolation without evidence of physical model. 2005, 2007 and 2012 set record lows for ice extent, but it's obviously not a monotonic trend.
"John Kerry" -- Not a scientific publication. Not from the then-Secretary of State, but rather a Senator from Massachusetts. Contextomy, as the statement relied on unknown sources. A statement of simple extrapolation without evidence of physical model.
"Epoch Times" -- Not a scientific publication. The named source made it perfectly clear that this was not a maximum likelihood evaluation, but rather a outside possibility. But no citation or similarity of text precisely accounts for the executive summary text: "There is a possibility of an ice-free Arctic Ocean for a short period in summer perhaps as early as 2015."
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect/documents/AMSA_2009_Report_2nd_print.pdf (Page 4) so it is possible that it was a misunderstanding of a spoken "2050"
The Arctic sea ice cover is undergoing an extraordinary transformation that has significant implications for marine access and shipping throughout the Arctic basin. The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, released by the Arctic Council at the Iceland Ministerial meeting in November 2004, documented that Arctic sea ice extent has been declining for the past five decades. Research has also indicated that sea ice thickness has been decreasing during the same period, and the area of multi-year ice has also been declining in the central Arctic Ocean.
Global Climate Models used in the ACIA and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4 released in 2007) simulate a continuous decline in sea ice coverage through the 21st century. One ACIA model showed it is plausible that during mid-century, the entire Arctic Ocean could be ice-free for a short period in the summer, a finding that garnered significant media attention.
Recent research (2006-2008) has indicated this plausible ice-free state of the Arctic sea ice cover may occur as early as 2040, if not sooner.
(page 25)
"www.350.org" -- Not a scientific publication. No source given. "[Some] scientists now believe [X] could [Y]" is not a probabilistic, model-based claim.
"www.norwegianmoose.com" -- Not a scientific publication. No model in evidence. That a contingency-based forecast was made is not evidence the forecast was wrong if the contingency didn't come into play.
"timesonline" -- Not a scientific publication. This has the appearance of probabilistic, model-based claim, but not well-sourced enough to verify it. But even so, it's not a claim of what will happen.
"biologicaldiversity.org" -- Not a scientific publication. No source given.
"canwest news service" -- Not a scientific publication. No source given. Contextomy gives the impression that the Louis Fortier is the source of the claims, but the article does not say so.
"bbc.co.uk" -- Not a scientific publication. Claim not refuted.
"I'm not trying to be alarmist and not trying to say 'we know the future because we have a crystal ball'," said Dr Maslowski.
"Basically, we're trying to make policymakers and people who need to know about climate change in the Arctic realise there is a chance that summer sea ice could be gone by the end of the decade.
"www.niagarafallsreview.ca" -- Not a scientific publication. "[Some] scientists now believe [X] could [Y]" is not a probabilistic, model-based claim.