You have to first establish a baseline and I believe we have adequate knowledge to use one or several sets of baselines.
If we don't, we should.
We have been making observations of the earth's climatic history for a long time and we have some very good baselines in several of the scientific disciplines. When unusual events begin to happen, it is time to *realize* we may be causal to our own demise. Our species have become that powerful and Nature is displeased. It's mathematical functions have been interrupted and a mathematical imbalance (an uncertainty) is created until mathematical order is restored. And that can take a long time.
I assume climate scientists are not dummies. and that they are some of the smartest people on the planet ok?
What I find distressing about our current approach is that the obvious appears to be missing from the dialogue and I have to wonder if this is because they simply missed it or there is some sort of desire to minimize for the sake of public order.
I have referred to peak heat on a couple of occasions and the notion should be in their faces so to speak. Perhaps it is known and perhaps I am incorrect in raising it as an immediate issue...perhaps..
Please excuse the lack of formal language.
The notion can be explained as follows:
If we assume
- that the average global temperature is climbing steadily due to to what ever causation you may wish to use
- that climate data is correct and indeed the mean temp is rising.
It is worth noting that for an average to be generated we need to have a data population that includes deviations from the mean. That means that there must be highs and lows to generate an average figure.
For every degree the mean increases the "hot" deviation must increase also ( more so than the "cold" deviation - to generate the rise in mean)
What this means is that a situation of what I call "peak heat" is being generated every summer in the way of hotter and hotter heat waves across various parts of the globe.
Last year we saw a major heat wave hit India, Pakistan and the Middle East. ( death toll greater than 7ooo I believe)
If the mean temp is going up then the next heat wave event will be much hotter ( assuming the peak heat is not spread more evenly across the globe)
There is a heat thresh hold where human survival is not possible. And it appears to me, with out solid data research, that this "regional" situation is only a few years away.
I ask the following question:
Why has this not been a topic of concern when to any one who works with statistics knows that peak heat will hit well before the global average annual temperature gets much higher.
Now either I am terribly wrong or the climate scientists are keeping mum ( or they simply missed it )
src:
http://www.livescience.com/34128-limits-human-survival.html
Indicating that at 60 deg C with high humidity** most people will suffer death by hyperthermia with in just 10 minutes.
However this is only for a ten minute period. If a lower extreme temp was endured for say 4 hours with high humidity then death by hyperthermia can still be the result.
Billy T mentioned this in his end times scenario but I think failed to make the connection to the immediacy of the issue regarding peak heat.
Now I am not a climate scientist but I can see where this is leading fairly easy. I wonder why I appear to be the only one.
** I may be misreading the chart...
