Rest of the world total is less than 10,000km and slower, much slower in most cases, like the USA´s highest speed Amtrack.http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-26/china-starts-longest-bullet-train-line-luring-air-travelers.html said:
China's Emergence As A Global Superpower
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Carcano
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Yes, this is one of the great failures of free market economies...that they have the option of turning wealth into waste.
For comparison:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-30/beijing-opens-subways-to-ease-congestion-amid-urbanization-drive.html said:
As this data was before the new expansion of Beijing´s subway, it is probably now the world´s largest by track length and with the greatest by annual use but the Moscow subway is not doubt the world´s cleanest and most beautiful.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_City_Subway said:
More evidence China is making progress in decreasing the extent its economy is built on making products for export to US & Europe - Two very sick economies than need to borrow from the Chinese to buy Chinese goods.http://www.stateofthemarkets.com/report/19214/China-s-Non-Manufacturing-PMI-Best-In-Four-Months/1/0/22b0b6811c2dbb1b50c6a727a1d22ea8c0134192 said:
Also recall that for last two quarters, more than half of the GROWTH in Chinese GDP has been sales in the domestic market, (not infrastructure for it or products for export.) Of course these last two still dominate the Chinese GDP - but are losing ground to domestic services and consumption as China´s masses prosper and buy.
Every year bigger and better - the Harbin ice park:
and eight more "all made of ice" images at: http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2013-01/06/content_16087102_2.htm
and eight more "all made of ice" images at: http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2013-01/06/content_16087102_2.htm
Probably "leaked" now to build public support for US´s new focus on S. China Sea, especial the 3.8 billion dollar each new stealth destroys, which any of China´s 10,000 + fishing boats can tell exactly where it is using China´s GPS to facilitate attack by disguised Chinese Navy "fishing boat" covertly dropping string of frogmen with magnetic / suction cup/ hull bomb as it crosses in front of the US ship. (10 frog men, dropped at 100 meter intervals would require one frogman to swim only 12.5m on average or at worst two can swim 50m from each side of course) as the destroyer approaches before attaching the hull bomb below the water line.http://news.yahoo.com/chinas-space-activities-raising-u-satellite-security-concerns-061300435.html said:
Also note that if the US´s 3.8 billion dollar destroyer makes a radical random change of course to not pass thru the 1Km wide line of frogmen, the Chinese navy collects the frogmen and tries again the next day. When US ship sinks, China says: "How sad that some Americans lost their lives to an old, undetected Japanese non-magnetic mine, but at least a Chinese fishing boat saved three of them." Etc.
One of the first bills the US should default on comes from the Bath Iron Works for 3.8 billion dollars. These ships are essentially an ill conceived total waste of money, loaded with advanced technology (EM rail guns, electric motor drive, etc. - Everything the Military Industrial Complex, MIC, could think of, but note the 3.8 billion each is just the construction cost, and not include the billions of R&D that tax payers also pay for during the development of these untested new high tech systems.
As Michael might say:
“The MIC is very skilled at herding the cattle along the path it desires while milking them for every dime they got, into bankruptcy and home foreclosures.”
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... So when will the US collapse economically and militarily and China take over? December 2014?
If by "take over" you mean have large measure of control in the US, like a quasi government, no, never. What will happen is much like what happened when England declined - ceased to be the world´s leading country, with it currency the main reserve currency held by other nations. Gold was relatively more important back then (>200 years ago) than now, but gold was not the currency used in global trade - the Pound Sterling was.
The Yuan (RMB) will become more important than the greatly weakened dollar. - It already is the preferred currency for trade within Asia (Japan excluded)*. In part this is because the Yuan appreciates in value while the dollar declines.** Every week or so China takes another tiny step towards making the Yuan an international reserve currency. Last week it increased the allowed volume of foreign investment in China. About a month ago, it became legal for international companies to issue Dim Sum bonds outside of Hong Kong. Over the past few years, China has made currency swap agreement with most of the countries it trades with (not US or EU), but nearly everyone else. Thus, now less than half of China´s trade uses dollars and China´s trade without using dollars is growing several times more rapidly than it trade in dollars.
*Japan still has a lot of US dollar based trade, but Japanese trade with China, and several SE Asian countries uses Yuan & Yen - I.e. those buyers of Japanese products can pay in Yuan. This is true of S. Korean too, which now has China as its largest trading partner. A couple of years ago, China & India agreed to bring their mutual trade to a balanced 100 billion dollar level, but not to use dollars. Each will use its own currency. This is a net benefit for India as historically India has had, like the US, a net trade deficit with China.
** Gresham´s Law still holds - I.e. when China imports from another Asian country, it tries to pay in dollars, and often can if there are competing suppliers. Despite the large dollar surplus China earns with US trade, China is slowly reducing the number of dollars it holds. When China buys, say ownership of large area of Canada´s shale oil fields as it recent did (15 billion dollars as I recall) it pays in dollars. China is no longer "rolling" all of its US treasury bonds, especially the 10year or longer maturity ones so it gains dollars that way too, in addition to its dollar trade surplus. China is buying up in long term, paid up front in full, contracts for future delivery of oil, minerals, timber, coal, and (farm land when it can) fast enough to off set this huge influx of dollars most quarters. Shell´s huge natural gas off shore project in NW Australian water will begin deliveries to China in early 2017***, as I recall. The floating liquefaction plant, FLNG, is the largest man-made movable object in the world.
*** US will have its first land-based LNG plant in operation by early 2015, but only less than half the final production capacity, which is small compared to capacity of Shell´s FLNG, and several others that are now entering construction. With the FLNG´s more economical conventional production than expensive "fracking" with zero environment dangers, and less than half the shipping distance from the Asian market, the US plant will have only ~2 year of competitive economic operation - won´t even pay for its construction cost. Don´t buy stock in it. In less than five years from first shipment, it will be bankrupt. US´s Natural Gas will make plastics, fertilizer, and perhaps transport fuel, but not LNG for Asia. - Not even if nuclear bombs make a new Panama canal four times wider!http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Floating_liquefied_natural_gas said:
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Ok so when will the US collapse economically such that china over takes it?
Yes, before 2020 by any measure. By production of items with much of their value two years later, like high-speed rail lines & power plants, what I call the "lasting GDP" China passed the US a few years ago, as 2/3 of US GDP is consumption - things with zero value even just months later, like tickets to NFL ball game, etc.
Were you not saying before 2014 or 2016? And were you not implying china would instigate this economic collapse? when?
I am still forecasting run on dollar on or before Halloween 2014, as I have been for about 5 years. That does not mean US corporations will not be making a lot of money in 2015 as they mainly are now, by selling to Asia. E.g. GM makes much more in China than in US sales and they will grow more. It is just that there will be little turn around in the US unemployment as job growth in US is not keeping up with the growth of the labor force (only by official data that does not count workers no longer seeking jobs as part of the labor force does job growth keep up with labor force growth.)
A much better index of how bad things are in the US employment picture is the fraction of the population that has full time employment - that is steadily dropping.
Just because the dollar collapses and many suffer, does not mean that barges full of wheat, corn, etc. will not be going down the Mississippi. - China will be buying mid west produced grains while American go hungry and possibly stage food riots.* US will probably have a positive Balance of payments with China by 2017 at the latest.
As far as China "instigating dollar crash" that will not be necessary - interest rates needed to sell Treasury bonds are already rising and that will soon accelerate - just continued more than trillion dollar annual issue of thin air money is what crashes the dollar. Fact that China could crash the dollar now, with much greater pain in US than in China, is what I called years ago "China loading it economic gun" as deterrent to US doing anything with its stronger military against China. For example, US will not limit China´s exploration of the natural resources of the S. China Sea.
* There is a slight risk that the growing masses of hungry and jobless will revolt and fundamentally change the US´s capitalistic system for one more like China has that provides double digit improvements in the living standard of the masses annually, but good propaganda and the National Guard make that unlikely.
SO post 2014 halloween: Americans will starve in mass, possibly revot, as their grain is sold to china? So when the dollar collapses around 2014 halloween, do you mean the dollar will become worthless?
No, not "worthless." I have defined that before but forget now, so will make new try: Say the purchasing power is falling by more than a percent per month and more than 15% annually - that I would call a collapse. I.e. in about 4 or 5 years your dollar savings will only buy half of what they could when the collapse began. Then by end the second year your less than 85 cent worth dollar will drop faster - say be worth 50 cent in the purchasing power of the pre-collapse dollar. With so many lacking jobs, it will be very hard to get salary increases to significantly compensate for the rapid loss of purchasing power.
If your dollars were invested in US bonds they will drop in value faster - after one year, they will be worth about half face value (interest rates will have doubled) and even that 50% on the dollar will buy less than 50 cent would pre-collapse.
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So your saying Oct 2014 the dollar value will drop by half or after that it will drop by half in 4 to 5 years? And that salaries won't raise enough to compensate?
But there will still be mass starvation post Oct 2014 in the USA? Should I buy a gun?
But there will still be mass starvation post Oct 2014 in the USA? Should I buy a gun?
Read again (I don´t know how to be more clear):
Also note that Halloween 2014 was the limit. The run on dollar may come in June 2014, so can´t tell how far into the post run era October or November 2014 is. It is quite possible when the run starts will be ill defined and only a date set many months later- just like when a recession started is usually still debated nearly a year after all agree we are in one. However, it is possible some event will happen that "triggers" the run. - For example S&P cutting US bonds below "investment grade" would force massive selling of them as many currently holders are by law limited to holding only investment grade assets.
No, in first year after the run, there will just be more movement to "franks and beans", home gardens where one can, less trips to the movies, etc. for most of the current middle class. The real rub comes, when the growing number of those on food stamps get less food as the government can only provide their support by more printing of thin air money.
No don´t buy a gun unless very well versed in its use. Better to buy small remote farm, of even better get your family and most of your assets out of the US into safer place, where less than 1% of the population has a gun, like Brazil. - In the US there is already more than one hand gun per adult! In Brazil, some robbers have guns, but if you cooperate with them, there is almost zero chance they will hurt you. The many armed and ill trained police are more likely to kill you.**
Yes, and I told why: Many unemployed would glady work for 90% of your salary, so why would you get a raise? - If you are good productive worker, you will probably not get replaced by an unknown quality worker just to lower salary cost 10% but don´t expect your salary to keep up with inflation, much less have increases that compensate for the decreasing purchasing power of the dollar. - That is already happening. - Middle class salaries are losing more 1% per year in purchasing power, mainly do to the dropping value of the dollar as salary gains are keeping up with current low inflation rates.
The Fed is already starting to recognize there is a limit to this printing of thin air money (expansion of its balance sheet) if the Fed itself is not to trigger the run on the dollar. Read the minutes of the Fed´s last OMC discussion - about half the members indicated that "QE-infinity" had to end by or before the end of 2013, or Fed´s creditability would be destroyed. (Their way of saying that continued printing of thin air money at greater than 1 trillion per year* would cause a run on the dollar with its value collapsing.)
* The Fed´s announced 85 billion per month of stimulus for 12 months is 1.02 trillion dollar annual expansion of the Fed´s balance sheet.
** A couple of years ago, in Rio, three victims of robbers were killed by the police in one week. This prompted the newspaper to make a funny cartoon: Man at corner of a block is being robbed. Robber is on sidewalk but can not see down the other sidewalk where two police are approaching, but the man on the corner can see them. Man says to the robber: "For god´s sake hurry. Take my money and run away - the police are coming."
I have never been robbed, but wife´s son has been. After he gave his wallet and watch to robber, he asked the robber if he could have his documents back. (It is big pain to get them re-issued.) The robber took them out of the wallet and gave them back. A teacher my wife knows was robbed. He told he was a poorly paid teacher and asked for his cell phone back, explaining it would cost him more than a month´s salary to replace it and his students would not be able to call and ask for help, etc. - The robber gave him back his phone.
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So your saying between june and oct 2014 the dollar will deflate considerably, by 2016 food will not longer be economical to buy? ...how does china fit into all this, somehow they will befit from all this?
Sort of, but I don´t know when the run will start. Conceivably the early stages have already begun - the interest rates on the 10 year bonds have climbed from the low of 1.39% on 23July12 to 1.84% now* (That is 32% increase in interest rates in less than half a year! I.e. easily meets one of my definitions of a run starting.).
The "smart money" is getting out of US bonds before the crowd does.
* See interactive graph here: http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USGG10YR:IND
There is a great range of wealth in the US. Its Gini index is the worst of all developed countries. The lower middle class will join the poor to be the ones not able to afford adequate food, needing food stamps etc. The upper middle class will still be able to buy the food they need, but rarely in a restaurant any more and they will eat less steak and more potatoes.
Mainly by the lower cost of the imports they need, when US (and EU) economies are entering depression and not only do not need as much oil, etc. but also can not pay for all they do need / want with dollars having decreased value. Some seller of imports the US needs may demand payment in gold. That may include China when the US military needs to buy Rare Earth metals as China is trying to increase its gold holding and decrease the volume of dollars it holds.
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So 2014 June to Oct 2014 the dollar will lose value dramatically for some reason, middle class americans won't be able to pruchase food by 2016, China will profit fromm all this because of low import costs?
OH about rare earth element mining: http://www.molycorp.com/molycorp-an...l-and-ramping-up-toward-full-scale-production
OH about rare earth element mining: http://www.molycorp.com/molycorp-an...l-and-ramping-up-toward-full-scale-production
No. Not even close to what I said. What I said and repeated for you - do you have a reading problem? - was:
From post 1236: "Also note that Halloween 2014 was the limit." Then as illustration, I noted it could start in June 2014 & also noted: "when the run starts will be ill defined and only a date set many months later- just like when a recession started is usually still debated nearly a year after all agree we are in one. However, it is possible some event will happen that "triggers" the run. - For example S&P cutting US bonds below "investment grade" would force massive selling of them as many currently holders are by law limited to holding only investment grade assets."
I.e. Never have I tried to tell when the run will start. You are the one picking June 2014 as the start date.
Further more I said in post 1238:"Conceivably the early stages have already begun - the interest rates on the 10 year bonds have climbed from the low of 1.39% on 23July12 to 1.84% now* (That is 32% increase in interest rates in less than half a year! I.e. easily meets one of my definitions of a run starting.)
*The "smart money" is getting out of US bonds before the crowd does."
On middle class Americans getting food, you are also distorting what I said (or again are a victim of your reading problem?) I said:
"There is a great range of wealth in the US. ... The lower middle class will join the poor to be the ones not able to afford adequate food, needing food stamps etc. The upper middle class will still be able to buy the food they need, but rarely in a restaurant any more and they will eat less steak and more potatoes."
Earlier in post 1228, in effort to get you to understand that transition most likely will not be a dramatic change one day, I said:
"What will happen is much like what happened when England declined - ceased to be the world´s leading country, with it currency the main reserve currency held by other nations." But in post 1238 I admitted it could have a rapid on set: "However, it is possible some event will happen that "triggers" the run. - For example S&P cutting US bonds below "investment grade" would force massive selling of them as many currently holders are by law limited to holding only investment grade assets." After expressing my expectation that "It is quite possible when the run starts will be ill defined and only a date set many months later- just like when a recession started is usually still debated nearly a year after all agree we are in one."
IF YOU ARE GOING TO KEEP ASKING QUESTION, PLEASE MAKE THEM ABOUT WHAT I SAID, not your misunderstanding or mis-readings of what I said.
On Molycorp: There is a huge difference in mining some tons of or Rare Earth Oxcides, REOs, and producing a few Kg of refined and separated Rare Earth metal. One main problem, especially in the US, is the ore is radioactive due to the high Thorium content. - That bankrupted the first corporation to trying to get the Rare Earth Metal, still just mixed, not even separated! Most investors think the same will happen to MCP. Why it stock is down from $35.79 a few months ago to $9.01 per share now. The peak in April 2011 was $75 per share and recently it has been below $6 /sh.
IMO, the only way the re-incarnated MCP will avoid bankruptcy again is if the EPA waves some environment restrictions on radioactivity release AND the US military gives them a generous up front payment for future delivery of specific rare earth metals.
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