China's Emergence As A Global Superpower

... it remains to see how a country that industralizes under a communist government and than moves more to capitalist society will stablize.....
As far as what is for sale in the markets, China has been more "free market capitalism" than the US for about 30 years. Less regulation, less hoops to jump thru to open a business, etc. With some bad consequences, like posion in the milk sold, etc. China punishes those who are excessively bad - Two of makers of tainted milk were executed. etc. That is the Chinese replacement for US´s tight regulation of the economy.

As far as the infrastructure of the society is concerned, IMHO, US comes up short - rarely can fund major projects that show no benefit before the next election if the Congress is voting funds or if a corporation will have less on the bottom line for a decade until the benefits starts. In contrast, China can and does fund great benefit public works even if first benefit it more than a decade away. This is why China´s GDP growth it at least 3.5 times higher than the US´s and why real (inflation adjusted) wages have been growing double digit for more than a half a decade. Modern China is not the old "cheap labor" China. It makes high value added goods and is now world´s volume leader in their production of everything from huge fastest trains to efficient cars to tiny ipods:

http://www.investingdaily.com/15872/as-goes-china-whither-asia said:
".. Demand for Chinese exports has slowed thanks to weak growth in the US and the festering European debt crisis, Chinese manufacturers aren’t simply folding up shop and going home. Labor costs in China have on average surged by 20 percent a year for the past four years. Wages in China’s coastal provinces, the country’s manufacturing and export hubs, have been rising even faster, as factories have been struggling to attract cheaper labor from the country’s interior.

As the central government has stepped up its spending in the country’s previously neglected hinterland, rural Chinese have been able to make a better go of life at home, negating the draw of factory life. And since most families already have at least one relative working in a coastal factory and are sending money home, there just isn’t an urgent need for cash.

While that’s created a virtuous cycle as far as the average Chinese is concerned, it’s made life tough for manufacturers who moved their operations to China to take advantage of cheaper labor in the first place. So rather than simply going out of business, manufacturing is leaving China at a quickening pace, bound for countries like Sri Lanka, Vietnam, Bangladesh, the Philippines and Thailand.
I might add: There is no need for any food stamps program in rapidly growing China with it labor shortages. They don´t plan on switching to US style economy - After the dollar crashes, the US may see that the Chinese economy is better and switch to its long range planning of infrastructure with less regulated maker place and criminals (at all levels) who abuse it going to jail or executed.
 
Here are two examples of what China can do and US can not because US Congress will not fund massive projects with first benefits ~2 decades into the future.
I.e. more, graphically presented, on my post 1202 telling the advantages of China´s economic system:

China´s South-North Water Transfer Project is unique in the world – Far larger than any other. It will remove nearly 36 billion cubic metres of water every year from the Yangtze River Basin – which drains much of the nation’s central and western regions – and ship it to the arid North some 3,000-kilometres (1,900 miles) away!

image.php
Those pipes are 8.5 meters in ID – 18 wheeler trucks can easily drive thru while they are dry!

US´s Lake Mead, 16th largest man made reservoir in world, is slowly going dry - perhaps by 2021 according to a Scripps study. - A preventable economic disaster for the SW of the USA. The limited water in US´s arid SW is already doing great economic damage every year - It is less than 1900 miles for the abundant freshwater of the Great Lakes, but US can not do what China has done to improve productivity of a naturally arid region. - See more at end of this post.

_63872464_149204073.jpg
Photo shows excess water discharge from Three Gorges Dam.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-20103483 said:
The Three Gorges Dam stands more than 40 stories high. The scale and scope of the project is stunning. The dam stretches for over 2km (1.25 miles), … and cost more than $40bn (£25bn). Designed to control the flooding of the mighty river, the dam produces vast amounts of electricity - the equivalent of 11 nuclear power stations. It is one of the most impressive feats of civil engineering anywhere in the world and stands as a symbol of China's progress over the last 20 years.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Gorges_Dam said:
The three Gorges Dam} construction started on December14, 1994.[20] The dam was expected to be fully operational in 2009, but additional projects, such as the underground power plant with six additional generators, delayed full operation until May 2012. The ship lift is expected to be completed in 2014 .... {Billy T comment: A great benefits project, two decades in the building!}
The Three Gorges Dam makes more power than 10 nuclear power plants can with zero fuel cost. In fact fuel cost is negative as for 100s of Km above it now that the Yangtze River is 100+ meters higher so large energy-efficient ships can haul cargo where they could not before. I am not sure, and only time will tell, but it should be self cleaning of silt by excess flow discharge seen in the photo. Part of the year the water level is lower and produces less energy. On an annual energy production basis, Brazil has the world´s largest dam and it is 50 years old! (Built when Brazil´s government was more like China´s is today. Also later the military government mandated the switch to locally produced, sugar cane alcohol powered cars, which have 30+ years of large scale use now. Great saving in oil imports for three decades! )

But large, long-term, great-benefit projects are not possible in the US. For example:
LrgDSC_5097.jpg
Scripps Institution of Oceanography / University of California, San Diego:
".. There is a 50 percent chance Lake Mead, a key source of water for millions of people in the southwestern United States, will be dry by 2021 if climate changes as expected and future water usage is not curtailed, ... Without Lake Mead and neighboring Lake Powell, the Colorado River system has no buffer to sustain the population of the Southwest through an unusually dry year, or worse, a sustained drought. In such an event, water deliveries would become highly unstable and variable, ..." From: http://scrippsnews.ucsd.edu/Releases/?releaseID=876

If the US were as well run economically as China is, then this foreseeable disaster could be avoided. - Re-filling Lake Mead & Lake Powell with excess Great Lakes water is possible, for a Chinese type of government with long range planning capacity. This year´s drought, should be taken as warning that LA, etc. may lack water - an economic and humanitarian disaster. Unfortunately, the US Congress and Administration is at least 90% trained as lawyers instead of more than 95% trained as engineers as China´s leadership is. As a general rule: lawyers make problems whereas Engineers solve them.

BTW, The Three Gorges Dam used used enough steel to build 63 Eiffel Towers and 27,200,000 cubic meters of concrete. Lake Mead´s Hover Dam used less than 10% of that (only 2,480,000 m^3). Why BBC said: "The scale and scope of the project is stunning."
 
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f04da2db1484120eaf434f.jpg
New PCC - Background Mural shows Great Wall & the Fiscal Cliff ;)

Photo shows the Standing Central Committee (often in English called the Politburo Bureau*) with Xi Jinping the new general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party & the 6 others: Li Keqiang, Zhang Dejiang, Yu Zhengsheng, Liu Yunshan, Wang Qishan, and Zhang Gaoli. The full Congresional Committee has 205 other members.

* But I think that term properly refers to all 31 members of the Central Committee, which includes the top seven plus:
Ma Kai, Wang Qishan, Wang Huning, Liu Yunshan, Liu Yandong (female), Liu Qibao, Xu Qiliang, Sun Chunlan (female), Sun Zhengcai, Li Jianguo, Li Yuanchao, Wang Yang, Zhang Chunxian, Zhang Gaoli, Zhang Dejiang, Fan Changlong, Meng Jianzhu, Zhao Leji, Hu Chunhua, Yu Zhengsheng, Li Zhanshu, Guo Jinlong and Han Zheng.

I think way China is governed is if the seven Standing Committee members agree on an action, it is done. If they do not, then the full 31 member Political Bureau discuses the question and vote. There are another 205 full committee members of the Congress, but I think they rarely serve any role but a rubber stamp. There are alternatives for at least each of the 205, who take their place if some of the 205 die or can not serve. These 410 are chosen locally by the local CCP (typical they are the local CCP leaders, who probably were elected by vote within the local CCP active members). - Only a few Mayors are now elected by the people voting and that is relatively new. No need for six billion dollar elections every two years, not even every 10 years.

Here is an example of political change at the top in china:
CCP rules require that members of the Cabinate (called State Council) be members of the Congress, at least as alternates.** The current Commerce minister, Chen Deming, who was seen as a strong candidate for a vice premiership, which I think Li Keqiang now holds, is now 63 years old but young enough to serve another five-year term under party rules. Chen did not secure the votes for a seat on the 31 member Central Committee. Not only that but Chen lost his alternate seat in the Congress! This has not happended since 1987 when a strong supporter of Mao´s policies was thrown out of the Congress.

Two factors probably lead to Chen´s downfall: Exports grew at only 7% not the 10% goal under Chen and CCP rules have age 68 manditory retirement so Chen could only serve five years more, not the full 10 year term, but often this age limit is waved for Cabinate or Central Committee members doing well. More details at:
http://news.yahoo.com/chinas-commerce-minister-voted-rare-congress-snub-sources-104804448.html

** That possibly is why there are 205 "rubber stamps" in the Congress. - I.e. in that pool of 410 people there are plenty who could be Cabinte members with locally demonstrated skills and talents for at least 25 years. In Chinese politics, one advances by their merits as well as having strong Patrons in the current leadership. In US elections good performance in TV debates and in 30 second sound bites for two months prior to election is more important.
 
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New Standing Committe may not be as conservative as media suggests:
http://www.merkfunds.com/merk-perspective/insights/2012-11-16.html?registered=yes&utm_source=cc_newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=2012-11-16-insight said:
"..We disagree with media reports that China's new Politburo Standing Committee is dominated by relatively conservative members. What we see is a complete defeat of current President Hu's Chinese Communist Youth League (CCYL) clique and a victory of retired President Jiang's Shanghai clique....

As a result, except for new President Xi Jinping (not necessarily associated with any clique) and new Premier Li Keqiang (Hu's CCYL clique), all of the other five new committee members are considered associated with Jiang's Shanghai clique or favored by Jiang. In addition, current President Hu will unexpectedly no longer serve as military leader after stepping down from the position of Party leader.

We believe the reasons why some may consider the new committee as conservative are: 1) Zhang Dejiang, who was educated in North Korea, was appointed the 3rd on the committee, and 2) Candidates like Wang Yang, who has been outspoken and aggressively called for political reform and grassroots democracy, were not selected. We don't think it's necessarily the case that the new committee is so conservative. Newly appointed President Xi Jinping is known for his support for market-oriented reform. Unlike outgoing President Hu, who came from a humble family, Xi's princeling background (the privileged offspring of prominent figures in the revolution that brought the party to power in 1949) and political resources will enable him to push ahead reform.

In addition, the stances that China’s leaders hold are not necessarily the same on political and economic issues. Hu's CCYL clique, especially outgoing Premier Wen, firmly supports further political reform, but in terms of economic policies, they focus more on reducing regional imbalances and income disparity than on market reform. In contrast, Jiang's Shanghai clique tends to focus more on economic reform but they're more politically conservative. .."

from Email of Investment Daily said:
"..In his first remarks as Chairman, Xi said that the Chinese people want stable jobs, better social security and health care and more "satisfactory income.” Given his clear focus on material wealth, we should look for the Party to work towards bolstering domestic consumption. .."
I obviously agree with this as it is what I predicted more than 5 years ago. Also it is what is happening: Growth of GDP was 55% in the domestic consuption sector with investment and exports both down as percentage of GDP growth (but still dominating).
 
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Bold below is why the CCP is more popular than any US government has ever been:
Robert Horrocks said:
".. The average 40-year old in China has seen standards of living more than triple since they were 30-years old. Prosperity has spread from the coastal provinces to more central regions of China. People are, by and large, content with the material advances made under the Communist Party over the last two decades.

The party, too, is not as divided as it used to be. The old divides between left and right were between those who believed that the state should command and direct economic activity and those that believed in the dynamism of free markets. But that argument is largely over and China’s economy is less monolithic—the large state-owned enterprises account for one-third of economic activity today; small and medium enterprises, predominantly privately owned, account for 80% of urban employment and three-quarters of new product innovation.
Consequently, China’s newly diverse economy is harder to centrally control. .."
{Billy T notes: That as far as what is for sale in the market place, the CCP does not even try. - The invisible hand of Adam Smith takes care of that.}
 
2012-11-25T141821Z_1_CBRE8AO13QT00_RTROPTP_2_CNEWS-US-CHINA-CARRIER.JPG
A chinese made carrier-borne J-15 fighter jet takes off from the Liaoning, China's first aircraft carrier, in this undated handout photo released November 25, 2012. China has successfully conducted flight landing on its first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, after its delivery to the People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy on September 25, 2012, according to Xinhua News Agency. REUTERS/Xinhua/Zha Chunming
http://news.yahoo.com/china-lands-fighter-jet-carrier-show-force-141821417.html said:
".. China ushered in a new generation of leaders this month at the 18th Communist Party Congress in Beijing, with outgoing President Hu Jintao making a pointed reference to strengthening China's naval forces, protecting maritime interests and the need to "win local war". .."
I don´t doubt it, but some will say: "Not even a good PhotoShop job."
 
Why do they want an aircraft carrier when wars are now fought with drones? ...
Many reasons: In addition to ability to deliver many different weapons, including ship sinking torpedoes, close in troop support fire, etc. probably "show of force capability" is most important. I noted some years ago that China is spending 100s of billions of dollars, paid up front for long term (some 30 years and most more than 20) delivery of oil, minerals, timber etc. in part to not get stuck holding too big a bag of green paper when the dollar collapses.

Many of these contracts are with African and other not very stable governments or even crooked dictatorships. An aircraft carrier can get the fighters close enough to fly squadron of fighters over the ruler´s palace - if he is not keep up his end of the agreement. That is a lot cheaper than an invasion. Also China wants to protect the shipping bringing the oil etc. to China. I.e. needs a "blue water" Navy second only to that of the US, and if I am correct that the US will be in deep, long lasting depression before this decade ends, China will dominate the oceans by 2020 with few of US´s 11 aircraft carriers not stuck in ports for lack of operational funds.
 
Many of these contracts are with African and other not very stable governments or even crooked dictatorships. An aircraft carrier can get the fighters close enough to fly squadron of fighters over the ruler´s palace - if he is not keep up his end of the agreement. That is a lot cheaper than an invasion.
Low flying fighters always run the risk of being shot down.

I dont believe China's satellite guidance systems cover Africa...yet.

But when this happens they will be able to strike very accurately with missiles launched from submarines.
 
Low flying fighters always run the risk of being shot down.
Possible but not nearly as easy as the helicopters now in use by the US as much faster and higher.
I don’t believe China's satellite guidance systems cover Africa...yet.
Spin of Earth brings Africa under them. More than a decade ago Brazil built and China launched and Earth resources satellite that has helped guide aid to Africa, etc.

If you think that a GPS like system is needed for ICBMs, it is not. All that is needed is to know accurately (many term harmonic expansion description of Earth´s gravity field) and where you are launching from. During the US/USSR`s MAD era neither had that but both knew, as China does now, very accurately the shape of Earth´s gravity field. SUMMARY: Correct your false belief.
But when this happens they will be able to strike very accurately with missiles launched from submarines.
True. And China has about 10 times more subs than the US has already, but only a few are long range missile launchers. Most are ship attack subs for self-defense in the S. China sea.
 
If you think that a GPS like system is needed for ICBMs
We are not not talking about ICBMs, we're talking about a cruise missile fired from a submarine that can destroy a specific building very accurately.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FwV-JucQktQ

The only way to do this is with Satellite guidance, and currently the Chinese system only covers the map as seen below.

Every time you buy a toaster at Walmart you are paying for the expansion of China's military strike capacity.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beidou_navigation_system

"The second generation of the system, known as Compass or BeiDou-2, will be a global satellite navigation system consisting of 35 satellites, and is under construction as of October 2012. It became operational in China in December 2011, with 10 satellites in use. It is planned to offer services to customers in the Asia-Pacific region by 2012, and to global customers upon its completion in 2020."

Beidou-coverage.png
 
We are not tking about ICBMs, we're talking about a cruise missile fired from a submarine that can destroy a specific building very accurately.
One does not need GPS to accurately guide a cruse missile. For at least a decade US cruse missiles have used the military accuracy level GPS, but for more than a decade they used "terrain matching guidance" which is inertial guidance between correction way points with detailed maps of the way points (from high resolution satellite photos) stored in the missile. They too could fly thru a particular window of a building, but had to have reasonably clear weather when over their correction points and each shot had to have these maps loaded in, not just the GPS coordinates of the target.

Planning a strike was much more complex and might need to be delayed for clear weather. In one regard the old system was better - impossible to blind with high power radar beam burning out the GPS receiver as it used no RF signals and enemy did not know location of the way points to camouflage them, etc.

You are correct that the Beiduo-1 system is limited to limited area. I was assuming it worked like GPS does when noting that Earth spins under the satellites. (and it does of course), but that first generation does not have precision clocks in the satellites. Time information is sent up to them instead from ground stations. That made them useful only in region you showed, which was all China needed at the time but without very precise clocks the satellites were much cheaper - basically just repeaters of the up link broadcast back to the ground. Beiduo-2 will cover the entire earth as its satellites do have synchronized to 10ns clocks in them and work like GPS does. It will give nearly full Earth coverage with less than half the planed 35 satellites but signals from more than three are somewhat more accurate.
 
One does not need GPS to accurately guide a cruse missile. For at least a decade US cruse missiles have used the military accuracy level GPS, but for more than a decade they used "terrain matching guidance" which is inertial guidance between correction way points with detailed maps stored in the missile. They too could fly through a particular window of a building.
The TERCOM (terrain comparison) system is only accurate within hundreds of meters and also needs a fixed launch position, and hundreds of detailed digital maps stored on board.

These conditions are rarely possible in the fast moving events of war.

Military analysts remember all the catastrophic misses of the gulf war that would often destroy a school or hospital 200 meters from the intended target.
 
The TERCOM (terrain comparison) system is only accurate within hundreds of meters and also needs a fixed launch position, and hundreds of detailed digital maps stored on board. These conditions are rarely possible in the fast moving events of war. Military analysts remember all the catastrophic misses of the gulf war that would often destroy a school or hospital 200 meters from the intended target.
I don´t think hardly any of this is true, based on conversation at APL with people evaluating the system years ago. Why do you say this? Inertial guidance is quite good* - submerged subs used it for weeks. Sailed under the polar ice, etc. GPS has replaced terrain gudance at least 20 probably 30 years ago so I feel free now to tell some vague facts based on "hear-say." (I did work a little on HARM - independently checking TI´s seeker logic and found a small error when enemy was using coordinated on/off blinking of two radars trying to make HARM centroid between them, but never on cruise missles. I felt good as I may have saved some pilot´s life.)

There are less than 10 terrain way point corrections needed even for a max range shot, posibly only two for a very accurate hit. True the launching ship stationed for example in the Persin Gulf probably had 1000 satelites photos stored in its memory banks and could get any needed in minutes from The Pentagon. The first map can be many square Km and that site can be easily found with inertial guidance after launch from moving ship, as most were back then because it is true that the injections / up load into the cruse missile/ of needed data was complex and it took even half a day to plan the strike. The last way-point map could have resolution of a few cm and be valid for years as large building don´t move much and some can be destroyed months before launch with no problem for scene to be used as an inertial guidance correction way point. Some claimed satellite cameras of the military could read newspaper headlines more than two decades ago!
Give some basis for your statements.

If some hospital was hit, it was by jet pilot error, not by a poorly guided terrain guided cruise missle. I have seen a film of the test firing of one from far away hit the smack dead center of the small brick wall which was its target! No scale was provided, but the wall looked to me to be about the size of the door for a double car garage. The missile had no HE so it is possible that I only saw the very best of several hits on that brick wall used to determin the circle of probable error, I think.

* and quite small. I have held the senser block in the palm of my hand. It was made from single piece of fused quartz. Here is photo of a unit:
http://www.honeywell.com/sites/portal?smap=aerospace&page=Missles_Munitions3&theme=T5&catID=C47E27B3A-58A6-A2E2-09FE-769AD775C886&id=H9CB06E91-4DB9-9829-A9C5-F419FF80645E&sel=4&c=n said:
com.merx.npoint.servlets.DocumentServlet
"The ring laser gyro was developed in the 60s and 70s for commercial, space and military guidance, navigation and control systems."
 
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Came late but interesting items

how ever true that is it remains to see how a country that industralizes under a communist government and than moves more to capitalist society will stablize. look at russia its been close to century since their industrial build up and 20 years since the fall of communism and they still aren't completely stable( though I am willing to admit that may be for other reasons than the switch) until everything their evens out and stabilizes I'm unwilling to assume long term stability.


Yes we looked at Russia - they contacted me while I was in China to see what I am doing there in 1983. I was doing my Industrial Ecosystems and Russia said, China will go no where....

In the mean time we in USA are heading south fast with the so called Capitalism (our way!)

It pays to learn....
 
In, just under the wire:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-07/canada-approves-both-cnooc-nexen-petronas-progress-bids.html said:
Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper approved Cnooc Ltd.’s $15.1 billion takeover of Nexen Inc. (NXY) and Petroliam Nasional Bhd.’s C$5.2 billion ($5.2 billion) takeover of Progress Energy Resources Corp. (PRQ) ... Harper said the two transactions are the end of a "trend" and the country {Canada} will no longer allow state-owned companies to take over businesses in the nation’s oil sands, and will toughen requirements in other industries.

The deal by Beijing-based Cnooc is the largest ever takeover by a Chinese company, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It gives the state-owned company a stake in Canada’s largest oil-sands project and the biggest position in the Buzzard oil field in the U.K. North Sea.

China is securing global reserves to feed demand in the world’s second-largest economy, which accounted for half of the world’s oil consumption growth in 2011, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Harper, who has touted Canada as an emerging “energy superpower,” has called it a national priority to diversify energy exports, sending less to the U.S. and more to Asia.
This direct buying of the energy assets is new approach, although China has been buying up farm lands for some years (tried to in Brazil, but was not allowed to). For half a decade China has been paying up-front in full for long term (up to 30 years) energy delivery contracts. For example, more than 4 years ago, gave PetroBras 10 billion dollars for 200,000 barrels / day (on average) delivered to China for 20 years. (Until ~2028, as I recall.) This buying of real assets with US Treasury´s paper promisses reduces the holding of dollars in China´s reserves just as well as the older paid-up-front contracts did. For more than two years now, the total dollars China holds in reserves has been slightly decreasing.

That makes it easier for China to tell US to go to hell (no longer: will finance US deficits, accept green paper for real goods and services, etc.) when that is to China´s economic advantage. I.e. When Chinese factories produce mainly for domestic consumption and exports to suppliers of needed raw materials: food, minerals (that includes oil and coal), lumber mainly from Australia+NZ, Brazil, Canada,* Indonesia+etc.of SE Asia, and Africa, all of which have their trade with China growing by double digits annually. OR produce for other Asian nations that send low value added products (shoes, shirts, simple tools, fans etc.) that they can produce more cheaply than China can now that Chinese wages have climbed annually in purchasing power by double digits for nearly a decade. If US and EU don´t go into deep, long lasting depression because of excessive printing of fiat money, then China can send them there by dumping its dollar reserves. That ONE TIME loss will quickly be compensated by the EVERY YEAR lower cost of Chinese imports when US & EU are too broke with near worthless currencies, to be significant buyers of oil, etc. in the world markets.

*Even when in deep depression, China will still be buying grain crops produced in the US´s fertile Mid West. Thus, there will still be export jobs for 2 or 3 percent of the US population (Counting work on the trains and in the ports). Also it will be at least a decade more before China can produce large aircraft turbofan jet enegines, but In other post I suggested China may buy the engine division of Rolls -Royce. That suggestion became more likely yesterday when China took Rolls-Royce to court. For details, see: http://www.sciforums.com/showthread...amp-comments&p=3023341&viewfull=1#post3023341 A post that concludes with:

China knows how to play "Capitalistic hard ball" very well.
 
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For more on China´s grabs for energy, (like prior post´s 15 billion buy of Nexen owned Canadian oil), see http://www.oilandenergydaily.com/2012/12/12/chinas-secret-play-for-u-s-energy-assets/
This is all part of their efforts to spend down paper assets for real assets. - Same story I have been telling and predicting for 6+ years but you may want to read it and many related facts at the above link, which notes other Asian nations (including India) are doing the same, but on a lesser scale.

US may have a lot of "tight oil & gas" but producing that oil will pose environment problems (water shortages too*) and be expensive too compared the free flowing oil Asian nations, especially China, are locking up in out right buys or with long term delivery contracts paid up front to convert sinking value dollars into increasing value real assets.

SUMMARY: Asia, especially China, is eating the US´s lunches for decades to come.

* It is sort of a national scale version of the poor´s "eat or pay the electric bill" problem. The water pumped into the ground and contaminated if recovered can not also irrigate crops. US is too poor, too debt in debt, to lock up conventional oil that flows to the surface as Asian nations are doing but water may be the more serious US probelm:
{post 1203, this thread in part}
China´s South-North Water Transfer Project is unique in the world – Far larger than any other. It will remove nearly 36 billion cubic metres of water every year from the Yangtze River Basin – which drains much of the nation’s central and western regions – and ship it to the arid North some 3,000-kilometres (1,900 miles) away!

US´s Lake Mead, 16th largest man made reservoir in world, is slowly going dry - perhaps by 2021 according to a Scripps study. - A preventable economic disaster for the SW of the USA. The limited water in US´s arid SW is already doing great economic damage every year - It is less than 1900 miles for the abundant freshwater of the Great Lakes, but US can not do what China has done to improve productivity of a naturally arid region. ... long-term, great-benefit projects are not possible in the US.
LrgDSC_5097.jpg
Scripps Institution of Oceanography / Univ. of California, San Diego:
".. There is a 50 percent chance Lake Mead, a key source of water for millions of people in the southwestern United States, will be dry by 2021 if climate changes as expected and future water usage is not curtailed, ... Without Lake Mead and neighboring Lake Powell, the Colorado River system has no buffer to sustain the population of the Southwest through an unusually dry year, or worse, a sustained drought. In such an event, water deliveries would become highly unstable and variable, ..." From: http://scrippsnews.ucsd.edu/Releases/?releaseID=876

If the US were as well run economically as China is, then this foreseeable disaster could be avoided. - Re-filling Lake Mead & Lake Powell with excess Great Lakes water is possible, for a Chinese type of government with long range planning capacity. This year´s drought, should be taken as warning that LA, etc. may lack water - an economic and humanitarian disaster....
.
 
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Un-wed US Mother´s Births as a Percentage of All Births:
635159_13561066800547_rId8.png

Un-wed Births: percent vs. Educational Attainment 2011 (data from same link as quotes below)
Less than High School Diploma 57%
High School Diploma or Equivalent 49%
Some College or Associates Degree 40%
Bachelors Degree 10%
Graduate Degree 6%

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1079021-chinese-and-american-demographics-contrasted?source=email_macro_view&ifp=0 said:
US women are using the men to have children, then largely discarding them into a society of relatively rootless males. Although it began as a problem mainly among high school dropouts, it has now become a middle class phenomenon of substantial proportions. {above green bars in the} graphic representation from the Marriage Project at the University of Virginia.

In this society, single men have less incentive to succeed economically than their married counterparts. They remain in the hook-up, sports-and-video-game culture that they inhabited as late teenagers. The impact of these factors on the children is enormous. ... Let us contrast this hard-working single American mother with her Chinese counterpart described below. The American is always pressed for time. She has three jobs: The home, the children and earning a living. She spends as much time with her children as she can, but often she is tired and finds it easier to keep the children occupied {TV on} rather than enriched. That is borne out by a number of the studies cited {see link}.

The Chinese woman has time to make the house proper for her husband and, especially with only one child, has time to enrich the child's education and make certain the child prepares properly for school. The Chinese children are highly likely to become better educated, with a better understanding of the world than their American counterparts.* That is going to make the Chinese children better competitors for the good jobs that the world will have to offer, most of which will be global jobs, not local jobs.
Chinese women are not working in factories in nearly the same proportions as they did ten years ago. "Our generation doesn't work in factories," he reported a typical young woman saying. What could have created that change, I wondered. The answer is to be found elsewhere in the Pilling article: Because of many couples' preferences for male children, they have used abortion to create a ratio of 119 male births to 100 female births. As a consequence, females are much in demand as mates and they can, in large measure, choose to mate only with the most productive males and create the kinds of lives they would prefer. For many young Chinese women, this is a life centered on their families, not their jobs. They will have the one child permitted and will lavish their attention on their successful male mate and their one child, including the one child's education and future prospects.
Billy T Summary: The future belongs to the country with best educated children, the strongest family structures and most productive society in real things of lasting value, not in terms of rock concerts, professional ball games, latest hair and dress styles, trips to Disneyland etc. etc. that have no lasting value but are making up 2/3 of US´s GDP; with the US living far beyond US production warrants with flood of imports paid for with borrowed money and unlike China, a nation of great savers for future benefits and education of next generation, the typical American has little more than the hope that Social Security will not have collapsed before he retires and collects.

* and tests show this is not only true, but increasing so.
 
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