China's Emergence As A Global Superpower

[Billy T]

One of them seems a little out of place (the one without skinny chicken wing arms).

Only unique one I noticed (especially) WAS THE LEADING BLOND. Is she your "out of place one" ?

Made me think of the investment opportunities in local peroxide company stock, among other thoughts If China is in an export slump, and has plenty more of these, the solution is clear. If you like 'em fatter you can do that after delivery.

 

[kmguru]

China has come a long way, baby:

Image 5 of today's People's Daily.

15 of 17 finalists in the Miss Silk Road contest. Wonder if other two were "influencing" male judges? - Naw, probably not that Americanized yet. Next year, maybe?

What a blond is doing in the front?...

 

[Billy T]

{post 845, commenting on my 844} You should drop this patronizing habit of speaking for "them." You don't speak the language, know the people, etc., and it's in pretty poor taste to go around telling people what "they" think and want. Especially when it's your standard infantilizing image of the poor foreigner, desperate for subsistence and so easily controlled and oppressed.

My post 844 expressed exactly the following (quoting Naysayer47's comments on the lead (cover) article in the current issue of The Economist
(To quickly find his comment post, list posts by "most recomended" - Many others who know about China think he put it well too.)

"... Spend a month in China and you will understand why China is succeeding in manual intensive industries (and some not-so-manual intensive). The Chinese are simply hungry to work! (I won't go into China's infrastructure and govt top-down directives/policies to steer it's economy, which directly aides the devlp of the economy).

Millions of Chinese CHOOSE to flock to the cities to work in factories that most in the West would consider beneath them. Because where they come from, earning USD200/mth is much better than USD100/mth in the farm! (USD200/mth is the average salary for a factory worker in Shanghai, average for white-collar worker is around USD800/mth).

Most in the West needs to get off its high horse and try to understand the development of China at this juncture. U.S. media continues to harp China for it's 'slave labor' and unsafe conditions. Yet Chinese are happy to have a job and their standard of living have improved tremendously... including working conditions and higher paying jobs.

China will not be on par with the U.S. for quite some time, but it has vastly improved in every area that is important, including standard of living, human rights, legal recourse, infant mortality, and the 'happiness' meter. Yes, today's Chinese are much happier than anytime in the last 200 years!

China will not become the U.S. overnight and snack on Big Macs and drive bigger-than-thou SUVs, but they are beginning to own Camrys.

But who wants a Big Mac when you can import delicious American chicken feet. ..."

I might add that his last line is good evidence that he knows China well. Very few non-Chinese know that the best, most desired by Chinese, part of the chicken is its feet. The US ships tons of chicken feet to China for ~2 cents/ pound - there they sell for about 20 times that price.

SUMMARY: Despite Quad's comments, one only needs to be well informed to explain why the Chinese are in overwhelming percentage very happy with their government. I.e. I did not speak for them as accused, but only REPEATED what they say. Most Americans have very false POV about Chinese attitudes as they apply their experiences of more freedoms to judge with, not the great and rapid improvements the Chinese are experiencing.

PS if you want to be well informed on China, a good start is to read the People's Daily every day as I do. They even do a good job of reporting (with some bias you must discount for) Global news. - Sometimes first as they work while WSJ's, etc. reporters are sleeping.

 

[kmguru]

The reason people bash China is jealousy - that China is growing in double digits while we are hanging on barely. Another part is that Chinese are not Christians, so every Sunday, Americans are told to convert them to a christian nation so that we all can be miserable together.

I am reading Pat Choate's book, Agents of Influence: How Japan's lobbyists in the United States manipulate America's Political and Economic System. Since other Asian countries are learning to do the same, when China starts that "influence" process, the criticism will die down. Money talks.

On the other hand, I would not be surprised if the Japanese want to maintain the lead.

 

[Billy T]

... On the other hand, I would not be surprised if the Japanese want to maintain the lead.

OR: China and Japan, the world's third and second largest economies with more than 9 trillion in reserves, may work together now that Japan has a younger, more forward looking, government. (Tiawan too. Last president, who fought ties to China is now in jail for stealing government funds.) Perhaps to lead with China in the creation of an "Asian Euro," AE. Here is some more than year old data showing that the AE is already very feasible.*
(I'm too lazy to up date it but as US has been with negative GDP growth, current data would show even stronger potential for the AE.)

In 2008 estimated GDP at official exchange rate** then:

China = US$ 4.2 trillion
Japan = US$ 4.84 trillion
India = US$ 1.24 trillion
South Korea = US$ 858 billion
Taiwan = US$ 402 billion
Hong Kong = US$ 224 billion
Singapore = US$ 155 billion
Thailand = US$ 272.1 billion
Indonesia = US$ 511 billion
Malaysia = US$ 215 billion
Brazil = US$ 1.67 trillion - Joins because China is Brazil's most important trading partner now and most of Asia imports from Brazil. If Brazil firmly ties the Real to the AE, the west coast nations of South America (with possible exception of US dominated Columbia) will soon follow. Also will join as a BRIC and only BRIC's in the AE union have > trillion GDPs. (I.e. Brazil can protect it interests from inside better.)

I.e. in only a couple of years global trade in AEs could be twice as large as in dollars as oil would be priced in AEs.

New Asian Euro Total = US$ 14.57 trillion (2008 est.)
Note that does not include Russia, with it enormous natural resources. (Or the West Coast of S. Americian nations)

Compared with:

European Union = US$ 18.85 trillion (2008 est.)
United States = US$ 14.33 trillion (2008 est.)

*With those reserves the AE could be "fully convertable" into dollars, but IMHO, very few would prefer the dollar and make that conversion. I.e. the AE could have a rigid peg to the dollar, but stating it that way just reflects the old way of thinking. In fact it would rapidly be the dollar that tried to keep its value in tems of the AE. (It would fail for the same reasons the dollar is losing value now against currencies of most nations with more healthy economies.)

**if done with purchasing power parity, PPP, GDP data the case is stronger.

Note above data stolen from "SouthAmerica" - web name of a Brazilian economist resident in USA for years now, but like many others, he is thinking about returning to Brazil. He is active at elitetrader forum and his facts are generally good (although I do not always agree with his interpretation of what they imply) He before me realized that an AE was very feasible, NOW. His name for the AE is "new Asian currency" but My "AE" is much better in part because that dithong has already a single character symbol in many fonts (I would display but do not know how). Also the comparison to the Euro helps show how possible it is to create.

China could peg its Yuan to the AE (and should, if not floated and free traded, as the US and EU sinks into depression). Most of China's trade is with other Asian nations (including Russia as and Asian nation, which it certainly is at least geographically with Pacific Ocean coast line) if not true now soon to be with the present trends.

One needs to think out side the box. The future will not be a continuation of the past, except for the fact that there has been a drift of world domanace to the West for nearly 3000 years. Troy, Egypt,Greece,Rome, Europe, England, US and now Asia. "Financial Inertia" as Earth spins towards the East

 

[quadraphonics]

Here is some more than year old data showing that the AE is already very feasible

The feasibility of a currency is not a function of the size of the economy that uses it, but rather of the effectiveness and political cohesion of the institutions that make the monetary policy associated with it.

A joint currency means a joint monetary policy. And there is no way that the states you list are going to sign up for that. Even if there weren't unbreakable political roadblocks to that level of cooperation, none of the big players involved would be willing to give up their independent monetary policy. The economic costs of that would vastly exceed any economic or political gains to be had from the currency union.

The countries in question are simply too far apart in terms of developement and economic orientation for a joint currency to be feasible (let alone, desirable).

 

[kmguru]

Asian Euro = Aero, Chiro, Remyen take your pick...

 

[hypewaders]

Eartho.

 

[Billy T]

The feasibility of a currency is not a function of the size of the economy that uses it, but rather of the effectiveness and political cohesion of the institutions that make the monetary policy associated with it.

SORT OF TRUE BUT there was a lot if diversity in Europe, pre Euro (Still is - look at cultural and economic difference between Spain and Germany, France and Greece, Belgium and Italy, etc.)

A joint currency means a joint monetary policy. And there is no way that the states you list are going to sign up for that.

Agreed, but you are assuming they drop their national currencies. Even in the creation of the Euro, that took more than a year as I recall. I expect in the creation of the AE the local currencies might also co exist - some like the Yuan probably for a decade at least with a semi- rigid peg to the AE.

Even if there weren't unbreakable political roadblocks to that level of cooperation, none of the big players involved would be willing to give up their independent monetary policy. The economic costs of that would vastly exceed any economic or political gains to be had from the currency union.

With pegs to AE they do not cease to exist or lose that control of policy. Not any more than China has given up its monetary policy to the US dollar via its "slipping peg" to the dollar. Here either you are flat out wrong or misunderstood that the nations would follow the Euro creation process and retain (for as long as it was good for them) their local currency in internal circulation.

There would be huge benefits, as was the case in EU with Euro creation, when contracts can be made with a common currency, competition is enhaced, etc.. Yes there are problems, but it is a question of trade offs - Main benefit for all is that their reserves are now sinking with the monterzation of the dollar into trash. Most (all of the BRICKs) are very vocally complaining about that now. The need for a new reserve / trade settlement currency and trade currency is obvious to all. I do not think the IMF can supply it for the reason you suggest - it is not a productive econonmy.

Those overseas dollars are coming home to the US - will add to the inflation, possibly as much as the FED printing more. I.e. every day now foreigners are buying parts of the US - farms, factories even just vacation home in Florida as the dollar sinks in value the US is cheap and getting cheaper for them to buy. (BTW who bought Bernie Madoff's homes?) Even failed banks can now be bought by foreigner, now that the FDIC is running out of funds. Also the FHA is already below the Legally mandated reservers - will likely follow the FDIC's lead - adopt the "sell mortgages" to foreigners also as the FDIC recently has for banks.

When a nation or a person lives beyond their means too long, the creditors take ownership of their goods. This "repossion" is in progress now and rapidly increasing. China and Japan wll own much the US soon. Hell, even Canada, just bought a piece of US's GM with help from Russia.

 

[quadraphonics]

SORT OF TRUE BUT there was a lot if diversity in Europe, pre Euro (Still is - look at cultural and economic difference between Spain and Germany, France and Greece, Belgium and Italy, etc.)

Those differences pale in comparison to the differences between China and Japan.

And let's not get too rosy about what the Euro does or does not demonstrate: it's been in circulation for less than a decade, and its unified policy-making organs have seen only a handful of serious tests.

Agreed, but you are assuming they drop their national currencies. Even in the creation of the Euro, that took more than a year as I recall. I expect in the creation of the AE the local currencies might also co exist - some like the Yuan probably for a decade at least with a semi- rigid peg to the AE.

What happens in a transitional period is not germaine to the basic issues of policy unification.

With pegs to AE they do not cease to exist or lose that control of policy.

A currency peg is exactly a loss of control of monetary policy.

Not any more than China has given up its monetary policy to the US dollar via its "slipping peg" to the dollar.

China completely abdicated its monetary policy with the hard peg to the dollar. It regained a small amount by loosening this peg, but is still basically harnessed to US monetary policy.

Here either you are flat out wrong or misunderstood that the nations would follow the Euro creation process and retain (for as long as it was good for them) their local currency in internal circulation.

Again, the details of how the transition is handled are not relevant to the basic viability of the currency union.

 

[Billy T]

... A currency peg is exactly a loss of control of monetary policy.

agreed why I suggested it would not be rigid, but semi - fixed, adjusted when needed like China's "slipping peg."

... It regained a small amount by loosening this peg, but is still basically harnessed to US monetary policy.

That's funny (or sad if you are serious) Who owes whom? Who can destroy the others currency at any time of their choosing?

Admittely China will not chose to do so for a few years still as China needs to convert to domestic based economy and convert more of the US paper it holds into real assest - ownership of raw materials, energy assets, etc. as it is rapidly doing. Your POV is sort of like saying the bank has lost its control of money policy to head over heels in debt Joe Borrower. Yes the bank can be hurt when Joe goes bust, but it can also foreclose when it wants too if Joe can't pay. Did you miss my point that China is foreclosing now - I.e. using it dollar reserves to globally buy what the US will need and even parts of the US.

... Again, the details of how the transition is handled are not relevant to the basic viability of the currency union.

I did no specify "details." That would be for Asian nations to work out. I would guess that some new authority would be set up - sort of an Asian bank and the various members would transfer dollar reserves to it in exchange for AE credits (probably only that for years - no circuating AEs.) Posibly some formula based on both their GDPs and reserve and get voting rights" in the Asian bank's policies in proportion to their contributions. (I.e. Japan and China effectively control it.) One of the big debates might be should the US be allowed to join.

A complete currency union does take time. For example Mersul is not any way close to it yet aftermore than a decade. Brazil and the other three menbers, plus the several in the process of joining have agreeded to common import tariffs, provided you ignore the doxens of things each has exempted its self from. The point is that the AE would seem to be a better path to ending the dollar's dominance than most, if not, others now being discussed.

 

[quadraphonics]

agreed why I suggested it would not be rigid, but semi - fixed, adjusted when needed like China's "slipping peg."

Still irrelevant. How the transition is managed does not figure into the basic viability of a currency union.

Or have you stopped proposing an Asian Eurodollar? It sounds now like you're imagining some kind of reserve-only currency, but that is little more than an accounting sleight-of-hand.

That's funny (or sad if you are serious) Who owes whom? Who can destroy the others currency at any time of their chosing?

Either country could wreck the other's economy at any time, but not without doing comparable damage to themselves in the process.

 

[Billy T]

... Or have you stopped proposing an Asian Eurodollar? It sounds now like you're imagining some kind of reserve-only currency, but that is little more than an accounting sleight-of-hand.

No. As stated in earlier post initially as was the case with the Euro, the national currencies still a used within each nation. I noted that unlike the creation of the euro, where this was only for a little more than a year, that in China and some others, the use of a local currency would probably continue for at least a decade. In a few years at most after the creation of the AE in electronic (or even paper) form travelers to other countries, say rich Chinese, would pay in AEs. Most probably just by swiping their cell phones of the check out reader as many in Japan and China do today. -Did you know there are 700,000 cell phones in China with this capacity now? Even some African countries have it now. Probably will come to the USA soon if not already there.

... Either country could wreck the other's economy at any time, but not without doing comparable damage to themselves in the process.

I think that false. US has no such power over China. When you strip out the part of their exports that are re exports of imported components (China is not the low cost maker it once was) the exports of china are not that important to the economy, especially if concerned with the increase in unemployment zero exports would make as the jobs associated with exports are higher paying than the bulk of the economy which is still quite rural. I.e. a 10% reduction in GDP due to fewer exports would be something like a 5% reduction in Jobs. The CCP can handle that.

To take a specific example of how the CCP would react: China was the main exporter (by about a factor of three) of solar cells in first half of 2008 then in first half of 2009 few were exported, so The CCP decided to make central solar cell electric plants to keep those factories humming. I.e douled it goals for solar cell power - there are real advantages to a centrally directed infrastrue system. Only a tiny fraction of the US's stimulus package has actually been spent, but China is growing at 85 again already as it can quickly adjust to falling exports with new internal investments.

In contrast if China dumped it dollar assets, the US could not buy enough oil to run its very poorly designed (for expensive energy era) suburban infrastructure and gas hogs. Making any significant change in that will take at least five years.

 

[mike47]

Will it supersede US one day?

I think China will for sure supersede the US one day for many reasons : the US has a terrible reputation in the world and is well known for its aggression and bullying . China is more peaceful and it trades with the whole world .
Lack of foreign investments hurt both the US and Britain . The US uses NATO and the EU too much but their people are not happy with that .

 

[quadraphonics]

No. As stated in earlier post initially as was the case with the Euro, the national currencies still a used within each nation.

In hindsight I was too quick to dismiss the idea of a supra-national reserve currency. Which I think is a more accurate description of this "long transition" you envision. Such a thing is conceivable (indeed, the IMF already provides a sort of prototype of it), but I think is unlikely to emerge from Asia exclusively. On the one hand, the economies are too volatile and on the other, the necessary political entente is lacking.

Incidentally, there is an article on international reserve currencies in the current issue of Foreign Affairs, titled "The Dollar Dilemma" by Barry Eichengreen. It has this to say about an Asian currency:

"China does not need to participate in a monetary union in order to achieve the economic and financial scale necessary for its currency to play a role internationally. It does not have to share monetary sovereignty with its neighbors in order for its currency to become a reserve unit. Rather than pushing ahead toward a regional monetary union, in the manner of Paris and Berlin, Beijing would almost certainly prefer to wait, for the longer it waits, the more the renminbi will matter within the region. There are plenty of reasons why a pan-Asian monetary union is unlikely-ranging from the very different structures of the different economies in Asia to the limited appetite for political integration ion the region. But the renminbi's own prospects as an international currency are an important one. Can the renminbi serve as a regional reserve currency? Yes. As a subsidiary reserve currency? Yes. As a dominant reserve currency? For the foreseeable future, this is hard to imagine."

Did you know there are 700,000 cell phones in China with this capacity now? Even some African countries have it now. Probably will come to the USA soon if not already there.

China is a very big market (and has the "advantage" of not having built as much old infrastructure), but mostly low-end. Korea and Japan are the places to look for high saturation of cutting-edge mobile phone technology. And the US is, indeed, the last. The saying in the industry is "If you can't sell it in Tokyo/Seoul, you can't sell it anywhere. If you can sell it in Cincinatti, you can sell it anywhere."

But where the technology is developed is a different matter than where it's (initially) sold. The above quote was related to me in California, by an Indian national whose children will be eligible to run for President of the United States in about 30 years :]

I think that false. US has no such power over China. When you strip out the part of their exports that are re exports of imported components (China is not the low cost maker it once was) the exports of china are not that important to the economy,

Oh, don't be ridiculous. There's a reason they "soft" peg the yuan to the dollar.

And, BTW, the domestic action in the PRC economy is in investment, not consumption.

Only a tiny fraction of the US's stimulus package has actually been spent, but China is growing at 85 again

Yeah, we'll see how much of that rushed, centrally-directed lending actually pays off. Or not, since the CCP will cook all the books anyway

In contrast if China dumped it dollar assets,

If China dumped its dollar assets its foreign exchange reserves would be decimated, along with the competitiveness of all those factories it's been investing in. Not a good strategy for a developing country.

 

[Billy T]

Thanks for the quote from Foreign affairs I basically agree with that but think there is also the option I have been speaking of and others too:
For example, less than two weeks ago China took a big step to making the Yuan convertable. I.e. for first time ever, it issued bonds to be paid in Yuan, not dollars or Euros. Brazil did that also (Real demonated bonds) less than two years ago. Being able to issue (and sell all) in currency you can print is strong indicator that the world's investors have confidence in your future and ability to pay back with increased purchasing power. The fact that few (other than FEd and insurance companies which have counter balance future dollar obligations to pay out), are buying US's long term paper now tells a very different story about their confidence that the US will be able to pay back the investment with increased purchasing power dollars. The TIP spread is increasing and Treasury may need to issue them in 30 year maturities soon to get anyone other than the afore mentioned two to buy 30 year paper.

... And, BTW, the domestic action in the PRC economy is in investment, not consumption.
Yeah, we'll see how much of that rushed, centrally-directed lending actually pays off. Or not, since the CCP will cook all the books anyway

Again "sort of true." Agreed is not ladies buying the latest fashon, but that central direction is why China is consuming more steel than the rest of the world combined and not only steel. (More wind machine than RoW and many other things too.) That is why China is growing rapidly stronger, more efficient, and slowing the use of Coal etc to be less polluting, etc. Much of US consumption leaves nothing productive a year later - like last years Rose Bowl, rock concerts, or vacation trip to Disney Land, etc. - all included in the US's GDP.

And you don't think the books are cooked in the US? For example, by rating the toxic assets AAA, or by counting the billions of rebuilding Katrina damage as if it were real GDP growth. China's GDP is more accurate than that as they do not include rock concerts etc. but do have real investments like new smart power grids, new airports, new rail systems etc. mainly in their stimulus.

BTW - in three years China will build more kilometers of high speed (>200km /hour) train lines than RoW has now!) That is not "cooked books." It makes "productive GDP" bigger. (I am defining "productive GDP" as things that make your nation stronger and more productive in the future, not things like the Rose Bowl or trip to Disney Land or this year's more stylish dress.)

...If China dumped its dollar assets its foreign exchange reserves would be decimated, along with the competitiveness of all those factories it's been investing in. Not a good strategy for a developing country.

Perhaps "converted" would make my meaning more clear than "dumped." As you well know, I have predicted, and it is now coming true, that China would convert its dollar assets (paper promisses of the US whose value is already falling and will be "monetized away") into "real assets." For example, the 54 billion dollar - 20 year contract with Australia signed last week for natural gas" - LNG to be sent to China. That will send dollars out of China's reserves. Eventually those dollars will come home to the US and buy up parts of the US.

I said all this in prior post, even pointing out that this returning dollar flux may be more important than the FED's printing presses in causing run-away inflation. IMHO, a signficant part of the current rise in the stock market is due to this falling value of the dollar. I.e. I bet if you express the rise in Euros, it it much less. To make my point clear: if dollar loses half its purchaing power, then the DOW should double - that is a large part of what is causing stocks to rise now.

The other significant factor is that corporations are becoming more profitable as they fire workers and sell more goods to foreigners. (Which "max out credit card" Joe American can't aford to buy now.) Don't expect the US to recover an economy with 72% of it buying by consummers. It will be the returning flood of dollars that does the buying of America. Vacation homes in Florida, wheat fields in Kansas etc.

 

[Billy T]

To Quad:

"... China on Thursday expressed support for the idea of creating an East Asian Community mentioned by Japan's newly elected Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama. Hatoyama has said his government would promote the long-term idea of an East Asian Community modelled on the European Union with a common currency. ..."

From today's People Daily at: http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/

SUMMARY: Instead of your predicted resistance, there seems to be active support in China & Japan's governments for my idea of achieveing an AE currency in a decade or so.

Also my point about China pushing electric hybrids for air quality (~250,000 placed on the roads this year so far) is starting to show results too:

"... Air quality in Beijing this year has been at the best level in a decade, the city's environment authorities said Friday. ..."

From: http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90001/90782/90872/6762006.html (same issue as above link)

My post 885 showed that it already economically possible to displace the dollar from it dominate role, but as you pointed out there is more than economics in doing so. And I had suggested it will probably take a decade, but less if the US and EU are in deep depression as I predicted they will be by 31 October 2014 several years ago, based on GWB and Republican "trickle down" miss management of the US economy - especially the tax relief for the already rich and needless wars and Joe American's salary losing purchasing power While GWB was POTUS.

Also in post 885, I called attention to the importance of Japan's conservatives being replaced (after almost 50 years) by a young foreward-looking government. Specifically mentioning that they might support the formation of an Asian Currency union, as outlined in post 885 with evetually the AE currency circulating and being at least as important as the dollar, if not more so.

--------------------------
PS - If you give your Email address to Money Morning (Here: http://www.moneymorning.com/ppc/1K1EB_China_Dollar.html?gclid=CIX_u5Wt_pwCFU1M5QodtBaVcA ) they will send you their report called: "How China is torpedoing the US dollar."
I did not as I think it is not yet in China's interest to "torpedo the dollar" - not for at least three years. China wants to spend its dollars for real assets and hopes they will still have most of their value. - China is even buying "soon to mature" US Treasury paper in effort to SUPPORT the dollar for a few years more. Here is the "teaser text" they give without your Email at above link:

"... In four short months, the dollar’s value has sunk 11.2% on the New York Exchange. In fact, it just recently hit its lowest level of 2009 against six major currencies, including the euro, the British pound and the Swiss franc. ... No doubt, the Federal Reserve has played a big role, increasing the money supply by over 110% since last October. Yet a major drag on the dollar is coming from the Red Dragon.
China has launched an active attack on the dollar, in hopes of demolishing it for good, crushing its status as the world’s global currency reserve. ..."

While their 11% decline is true, they are wrong on China's intent, IMHO. China is just wisely buying real assets while the dollar still can. You should be too, if you have some of the green paper promises of the US.

 

[quadraphonics]

For example, less than two weeks ago China took a big step to making the Yuan convertable. I.e. for first time ever, it issued bonds to be paid in Yuan, not dollars or Euros.

China has issued bonds in Yuan for decades; I think what you are referring to the decision to allow two foreign banks to issue yuan-denominated securities in Hong Kong.

From the previously-referenced Foreign Affairs article:

"It would be much more significant if such activities were allowed in Shanghai. Permitting the United States, for example, to issue renminbi-denominated bonds there on a small scale might help turn Shanghai into an international financial center. Households would presumably regard these bonds, with their returns guaranteed in renminbi, as an attractive alternative to bank depositis, which are often funneled into industrial development. But if they did, China's entire development model would be put at risk."

Agreed is not ladies buying the latest fashon, but that central direction is why China is consuming more steel than the rest of the world combined and not only steel. (More wind machine than RoW and many other things too.) That is why China is growing rapidly stronger, more efficient, and slowing the use of Coal etc to be less polluting, etc. Much of US consumption leaves nothing productive a year later - like last years Rose Bowl, rock concerts, or vacation trip to Disney Land, etc. - all included in the US's GDP.

And you don't think the books are cooked in the US? For example, by rating the toxic assets AAA, or by counting the billions of rebuilding Katrina damage as if it were real GDP growth. China's GDP is more accurate than that as they do not include rock concerts etc. but do have real investments like new smart power grids, new airports, new rail systems etc. mainly in their stimulus.

BTW - in three years China will build more kilometers of high speed (>200km /hour) train lines than RoW has now!) That is not "cooked books." It makes "productive GDP" bigger. (I am defining "productive GDP" as things that make your nation stronger and more productive in the future, not things like the Rose Bowl or trip to Disney Land or this year's more stylish dress.)

From what I can tell, your "productive GDP" is nothing other than the usual investment component of GDP.

GDP = consumption + investment + government spending + exports - imports

China, being a developing country, needs to spend a lot of its GDP on infrastructure, and hence can't spend much on consumption. Investment is something like 42% of China's GDP.
The United States, being a highly developed country, does not need to spend nearly so much on new infrastructure, and so can sustain a huge level of consumption. Investment represents about 16% of the US GDP.

If you do the arithmetic, you'll find that works out to China investing about $1.75 Trillion per year, and the US investing about $2.25 Trillion per year.

China's GDP also includes plenty of consumption: ladies' fashion, rock concerts and various other entertainment and lifestyle spending (much of it consisting of Western imports).

 

[Billy T]

China has issued bonds in Yuan for decades; I think what you are referring to the decision to allow two foreign banks to issue yuan-denominated securities in Hong Kong.

From the previously-referenced Foreign Affairs article:

"It would be much more significant if such activities were allowed in Shanghai. Permitting the United States, for example, to issue renminbi-denominated bonds there on a small scale might help turn Shanghai into an international financial center. Households would presumably regard these bonds, with their returns guaranteed in renminbi, as an attractive alternative to bank depositis, which are often funneled into industrial development. But if they did, China's entire development model would be put at risk."....

Thanks for the correction - That probably was the news I remembered reading and the "first feature" of it.

The effect on investment of more attractive rates than bank deposites etc. is a current problem in Brazil. Here there is a special, widely used saving account (called Poupanca) which functions sort of like the Saving and Loan associations in the US as its deposits are lent only for low cost home construction and development of associated sewerage treatment plants, etc. (No loans to the public from Poupanca funds.)

Its interest is not included in your taxed income and also by law is TR +6% /year, where TR is also set by law to basically reflect inflation. Almost all middle class or lower have a Poupanca account but the wealthy until recently put little money in it as other accounts with larger minimums to open and perhaps minimum take outs of 500 or 1000 R$ paid much better interest even after it was taxed. Real interest rates of these "applications" have been the highest in the world for many years. Even in 2008, you could get 1% /per month and a few years ago about 1.5%/ month real interest before taxes.

Now, Brazil has lowered the basic interest (to 8.75% down from a high of 23% annual basis) and inflation is very low, that fixed 6% and tax free status of poupance is starting to pull funds from banks into Poupance where it cannot be used by industry or car buyers etc.

Poupance should be taxes or its rate reduced, but next year is a presidential election and Lula cannot run for third term. (If he could he would win by at least a 20% margin.) So to avoid making the voting masses angry, the government has decided just last week to tax at 22.5% the interests earned on account deposits over 50,000R$ (~28,000USD).

This will stop the excessive flow into Poupanca but only adversely affect ~1% of the population. Currently the fixed TR+6% is preventing the basic interest rate in Brazil from being reduced more, so soon after the election next year a more permanent solution will be found - I suspect something like including Poupance as taxable income.

Brazil once needed high interest rates to attract capital investment and compensate for high inflation - no longer - Dollars & Euros are flooding here making the Real too valuable and hurting exports. Brazil badly needs to deeply cut its basic interest rate, but it will need to proceed slowly as there is huge domestic demand and the average factory is already running at 85% of capacity. Most think of Brazil as a big export economy (much like they think of China) but both server their domestic demand more. In Brazil's case only about 10 or 15% of GDP is exports (I forget the exact value).

Brazil also differs from China that only a small (< 5% ?) is re-export of imported components. (E.g. a little not locally made fertilizer in the soy beans, nothing in the iron ore, but some electronics and motors in Embaraer's airplanes, etc.) In China, now that its labor is better paid, about 1/3 ships out as re-exports of imported parts and components in the higher value exports. In a few years, as China's population grows richer, China will import more than it exports and certainly will not need to ship to Wall Mart, but may to lower unit production costs still further, IF (1) Joe American is not still broke as US is in depression and (2) domestic consumption does not keep China's factories working at near capacity.

 

[Billy T]

I know you all were waiting, holding your breath to see who would win. Here she is: Miss Silk Road 2009 & her runner up. Burt Parks now sings "Miss China"

The finalists in their bathing suits
From today's issue of the People's Daily .... I think she is the tallest one. (second from the right end in bathing suits photo.)

Other news from today's paper: - At least read the bold text in (2) & final note to understand why China is winning the GLOBAL struggle for "hearts & minds."

(1) "Over the past 60 years, under the leadership and care of the Communist Party of China and the central government, and with the support and assistance of all peoples in other parts of the country, the Xinjiang people of various ethnic groups through arduous efforts have made great advances in building a comfortable life and a beautiful home. The region has made a historic leap out of underdevelopment, with tremendous changes taking place in the areas north and south of the Tianshan Mountains.

The rights of ethnic minority peoples in northwest China's Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region to participate in the administration of state affairs are under special protection at present, some members of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPC) and the leadership of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference are from Xinjiang's ethnic minority groups. ..."

(2) "Six measures to assist developing countries, in agriculture, food aid, education and training, health, clean energy, debt exemption, zero-tariff treatment and other fields were recently issued by the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM), along with departments such as the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Culture.

The main contents of the measures are as follows:

- Assistance in the field of agriculture. Over the next five years, China will double the number of agricultural technology demonstration centers it helps to construct for developing countries to 30, and double the number of Chinese agricultural experts and technicians dispatched to developing countries to 2,000. Meanwhile, China will offer agricultural training opportunities in China to 3,000 personnel including officials and technicians involved in fields such as agricultural management, crop-planting, fisheries and animal husbandry.

- Donating 30 million U.S. dollars to the United Nations (UN) Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) to establish a trust fund assisting developing countries to carry out projects and activities enhancing agricultural productivity. Since the Ministry of Agriculture signed a general agreement on a 30 million U.S. dollars trust fund with the FAO on March 24 2009 in Beijing, China has completed donation work worth 10 million U.S. dollars for 2009. The funds will mainly support "South-South Cooperation" projects under the framework of the FAO's "Special Program for Food Security," human resources training and other projects.

- Increasing grain exports and aid to countries facing food shortages. In the future, China will, within its capacity, continue to arrange {direct from Brazil?} grain exports and prioritize exports to developing countries facing food shortages and increase donations to the FAO. Meanwhile China will continue to provide humanitarian food aid overseas through bilateral channels, and implement cooperation projects to help recipient countries enhance grain production capacities.

- In the fields of education and health, over the next five years, China will offer 10,000 extra scholarships to students from developing countries to study in China, and specially train 1,500 principals and teachers for African countries. China will supply an appropriate number of doctors and medical equipment for 30 hospitals that it has helped build in African countries, and train 1,000 doctors, nurses and managerial personnel for recipient countries. {More effective than bombs and rockets from unmanned drones.}

- Exempting outstanding interest-free loans due at the end of 2008 for the least developed countries, and offering zero-tariff treatment for 95 percent of goods from relevant least developed countries. To date, China has signed debt exemption agreements with 49 countries and exempted 374 default debts. According to this new measure, the Chinese government will continue to exempt default debts arising from interest-free loans for 13 least developed countries.

- In the clean energy development and utilization and environmentally sustainable development field, over the next five years, China will assist developing countries construct 100 small-scale clean energy projects involving small hydropower stations, solar energy and methane to support recipient countries to develop recyclable energy sources, improve production and living conditions and promote environmentally sustainable development. At present, China is formulating a plan to assist countries in the Greater Mekong sub-region construct methane-generating pits for 1,500 rural households, and will complete research and feasibility studies by the end of 2009. ..."

NOTE ON LAST POINT: China is building about twice as many hydro-electic dams as rest of world total. The bigger ones mainly in China and the smaller ones in mainly in Africa. I hesitate to mention a race factor, but it is important too: Chinese are a "people of color" as are many in the Southern Hemisphere who also bitterly remember centuries of brutal exploitation by European and American whites. So China has a "natural advantage" thanks to this history.

The title "Miss Silk Road" is a not so subtile reminder that China lead the western world out of the dark ages with its inventions (paper, symbolic numbers*, fireworks, printing presses, spaghetti & pizza, medical advances, filtered water, public sewer systems, etc.)

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* As contrasted with marks on a stick or computationally nearly useless "Roman numerals." - Because of their computational power, the Chinese understood and could predict eclipses when the typical ancestor of the European thought eclipses were either omens sent by the gods or dragons eating part of the moon etc.