Apologies to Billy T, I've been busy of late.
I think that it is possible for many of China's 1.3 billion to reach European standards of living, by say 2050, but by being even more European than Europeans are. I.e. more use of public transport, more living efficiently in high-rises, more use of the internet instead of going to work, more community service duties (sort of national peace core). There is no way they will drive big American style cars and live in the subburbs on 1/4 acre lots - even Americans will not be able to do that in 2050. I think by then China's problems with air and water pollution will still be bad, but improving.
Well, two things. For one the pollution problem won't be 'improving', it will be continuing to get worse but at a (possibly) slightly slower rate. Second, I understand the prediction that they may be capable of reaching Euro standards by being ultra-European, but I don't think they would make that choice. The sense in China is similar to what I imagine 1950s America was like: Everyone wants a piece of the pie and no one is willing to sacrifice a sliver of theirs for anyone else, certainly not for mother nature. Imagine is substantially more important in Chinese life than it is in the west, much to my surprise.
IMHO, the future belongs to China and India. US and EU will be like the decayed glory that was once Rome's. As you have some first hand knowledge about China, I would be very interested to know what you think the world will be like in 2050.
Let's just say I'm rooting for India!
I think the shape of the world in 2050 is fundamentally unpredictable. So much could derail China or India (though the oft-worried about Sino-Indian tensions are not relevant; neither nation is stupid enough to start something big) in the next 40 years that only economists are silly enough to feign confidence on such predictions.
If I lean towards any theory it's the multi-polar view expressed by many American writers lately. I don't personally see China undergoing any mass political transformation, though I'd like to hold out hope. If China is going to change it will happen only through economic stagnation coupled with dissent within the party; there is no reason to hope wealthy Chinese will demand freedom. As such, I don't think China will play a very respected role in international events. It will stick to it's "sphere of influence" and this will startle the Japanese, Thai, Koreans and the rest of SEA as well as the neo-conservative movement in America. That said, while it will take some islands that it probably has no right to and make economic slaves out of many smaller nations, it will not really hurt the quality of life for too many people and generally be a somewhat passive beast.
The greatest fear of China's political rise is it's use of weapons sales to bring quiet where it wants. The Chinese largely created the necessary conditions for the Tamil Tigers to be put down and the Chinese will see this successful campaign as an encouragement to try again. In short, if a nation in which the Chinese have economic interests is becoming less stable, they will supply dictators and murderers with the guns and political cover to all mass slaughter.
On the other hand, the Chinese are much more pissed off about North Korea and Burma than Americans could ever imagine and for a long list of reasons. America views NK as threatening it's allies and maybe Yankee troops. The Chinese see NK as threatening their entire system, the ethnic makeup of the northern frontier and their whole relationship with Asia. Much more is on the line for China in this one.
In it's inner sphere I see China as pursuing a more western philosophy in the next 40 years; generally promoting and allowing freedom for the sake of prosperity, while still being happy with oppressive political regimes like Vietnam's that make money.
What's most interesting to watch is how it will deal with conflict outside it's own sphere. The next 10 years will be China figuring out what it's options are in that realm; as of this moment it is still not a major priority to the leadership, though the home town fans are getting restless and demand shows of power. My guess is they'll try throwing their weight around a few times both with the Americans and against the Americans, but never in a way that directly challenges America dominance. Between 2020 - 2030 China will need to decide for itself what it wants its image to be worldwide. America has chosen to be both a beacon of light and freedom as well as war and destruction. China doesn't have the rosy first half to fall back on, and frankly the populace is often more outwardly power hungry than that of America. From 2030 - 2050 I see China either changing drastically politically (not necessarily towards democracy) or the country extending it's inner sphere theory to the whole world. That is, China will use it's army and weapons to secure economic prosperity in terms of GDP and other mass indicators; a strategy that will require China to support some fairly awful governments.
Two other points of note but which I don't have time expand on:
(1) One of the most interesting relationships to watch will be Russia-China. The Russians are clearly in decline and losing sphere of influence room to the Chinese and in 10 years when the Russians wake up to this reality it will be a very hard pill to swallow. The Chinese, of course, just view it as a matter of fate.
(2) China's rise and the spread of economy-firstism will deal a huge blow to Western philosophy. For 30+ years we've heard so much about how our culture is disgusting because of it's focus on money. Well, we're about to find out just how much more the Chinese care about money, to the exclusion of nearly all other aspects of life at times. One prediction I can see coming true in the next forty years: There will be at least one journal or magazine that declares the "death of optimism". As the West watches it's fantasy of the march to freedom and justice die, political and moral philosophy will enter a phase where they are fundamentally unsure of their own purpose. I'm not sure how they'll recover.
I think my post has been a rambling mess, but I think that accurately reflects how difficult this is to predict! Look forward to your reply.
