China's Emergence As A Global Superpower

... My principal concern with China is the prospect of an unexpected military encounter. China continues its policy of harrasing US Naval vessels and aircraft in international waters. These encounters could cause an international crisis...then what and what would that do to trade relationships?
We will not do anything forceful against China's defacto control of the sea off their coast but make some speeches about freedom of the sea, need for international operations etc. We will not say anything about suppression in Tibet or the western provinces. China is winning the struggle to re-take Taiwan by political means so not much we can do there either. I acknowledged this back in post 85 (Nov2005) as follows:

"... They now (or soon will) have the power to destroy US economically at any time of their choosing. I doubt they will do this, but they will be in a position to demand the US conform to their wishes, especially about Taiwan. ..."

China has always realized the they cannot stop the US with military - that is large part of why they built a lethal to US economic gun, financing US debt, but also it helped them build their economy via exports to the US and large capital influx to build the world's most modern industrial plant via huge "trickle down" FDI that GWB's tax relief for the rich make possible.
 
We will not do anything forceful against China's defacto control of the sea off their coast but make some speeches about freedom of the sea, need for international operations etc. We will not say anything about suppression in Tibet or the western provinces. China is winning the struggle to re-take Taiwan by political means so not much we can do there either. I acknowledged this back in post 85 (Nov2005) as follows:

"... They now (or soon will) have the power to destroy US economically at any time of their choosing. I doubt they will do this, but they will be in a position to demand the US conform to their wishes, especially about Taiwan. ..."

China has always realized the they cannot stop the US with military - that is large part of why they built a lethal to US economic gun, financing US debt, but also it helped them build their economy via exports to the US and large capital influx to build the world's most modern industrial plant via huge "trickle down" FDI that GWB's tax relief for the rich make possible.

Under a Republican administration, I would agree with you on the US response to military agression. We saw that in the previous incident with a naval spy plane. But with Obama, I am not yet convinced. I do not think he would prevent the US Navy from defending itself...could be wrong. It is still early. If China were to try to board a US Naval vessel, I would not yet rule out US defensive moves under an Obama administration. If George II was still in office, it would be a very cold day in hell before the US would defend itself against China.

I think Obama is very aware of that big economic gun you mentioned and is taking afirmative steps to mitigate...it won't be easy. But I do have great faith in The United States now that we have a good national leader...something we have not had in a very long time.
 
I to am impressed by Obama, especially his intelligence and ability to inspire /lead. I have in a few post even hedged a little my several years old prediction that depression was inevitable due to the damage GWB has done. (I still think it highly porbable, despite Obama's talents)

I am quite sure, the US Navy will defend itself, under any POTUS, but think it will not limit China's economic claims to exclusive use of the South China sea -I think they claime this to about 300 n.miles off the coast and claim a few islands are Chineses to help extend it. I think the "rub"in the current conflict was that it was a unarmed research vessel exploring the bottom etc. - China's POV is that you do that only with Chinese permission. Japan has been testing some trench for the feasibility of methane extraction. I do not know exaclty where it is or if they have Chinese OK to do this. (China would love to recieve part of the gas if it is feasible.)
 
I to am impressed by Obama, especially his intelligence and ability to inspire /lead. I have in a few post even hedged a little my several years old prediction that depression was inevitable due to the damage GWB has done. (I still think it highly porbable, despite Obama's talents)

I am quite sure, the US Navy will defend itself, under any POTUS, but think it will not limit China's economic claims to exclusive use of the South China sea -I think they claime this to about 300 n.miles off the coast and claim a few islands are Chineses to help extend it. I think the "rub"in the current conflict was that it was a unarmed research vessel exploring the bottom etc. - China's POV is that you do that only with Chinese permission. Japan has been testing some trench for the feasibility of methane extraction. I do not know exaclty where it is or if they have Chinese OK to do this. (China would love to recieve part of the gas if it is feasible.)

I agree Obama's election will not affect China's claim to ownership of the South China Sea. It will be interesting to see how Obama deals with China. For too long, US leadership been extremely accomodating to China.
 
For too long, US leadership been extremely accomodating to China.

Why do you say that? China has been pretty much a nice guy for umpty-eleven years now with hardly any international issues arising. Why shouldn't we be "accomodating" to them?

Baron Max
 
Why do you say that? China has been pretty much a nice guy for umpty-eleven years now with hardly any international issues arising. Why shouldn't we be "accomodating" to them?

Baron Max

I am sure the Tibetians feel the same way...not! I suggest some reading material on China might be helpful. I am sure their Nice Guy approach is reall appreciated by the Dali Lama and his followers.

And that Nice Guy attitude can certianly be seen in China's harasment of vessels and airplanes traveling in international space. I am sure you can tell that to the crew of the American airplane damaged and forced to land or the Nice guy attituded when they forced The US to buy the plane back for a quarter of a billon dollars.

Perhaps you are refering to the stealing of trade secrets or perhaps the violation of trade agreements...real nice guys they are.
 
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I am sure the Tibetians feel the same way...not! I suggest some reading material on China might be helpful. I am sure their Nice Guy approach is reall appreciated by the Dali Lama and his followers.

So now you want the USA to be the designated police for the whole fuckin' world? Tibet is a issue between Tibet and China ...ain't no one else's business, is it? If so, then who is the police force?

And that Nice Guy attitude can certianly be seen in China's harasment of vessels and airplanes traveling in international space.

We do the same! Ask any of the drug runners from Central and South America.

I am sure you can tell that to the crew of the American airplane damaged and forced to land or the Nice guy attituded when they forced The US to buy the plane back for a quarter of a billon dollars...real nice guys.

I agree, that one incident, umpty-eleven years ago, was not very nice. But then, to be honest, there was some controversy about what happened and where.

Baron Max
 
So now you want the USA to be the designated police for the whole fuckin' world? Tibet is a issue between Tibet and China ...ain't no one else's business, is it? If so, then who is the police force?

We do the same! Ask any of the drug runners from Central and South America.

I agree, that one incident, umpty-eleven years ago, was not very nice. But then, to be honest, there was some controversy about what happened and where.

Baron Max

Where did I say, I was for being an international policeman? I didn't. You are changing the subject. The subject was, China = nice guy.

We do the same? I think you need to do some reading. Are you saying US vessels in international waters are running drugs? Are you saying the US Naval survey vessel was running drugs?

And lastly there was no real controversy about the position of the US airplane or what happened...only spin.
 
We will not do anything forceful against China's defacto control of the sea off their coast but make some speeches about freedom of the sea, need for international operations etc. We will not say anything about suppression in Tibet or the western provinces. China is winning the struggle to re-take Taiwan by political means so not much we can do there either. I acknowledged this back in post 85 (Nov2005) as follows:

"... They now (or soon will) have the power to destroy US economically at any time of their choosing. I doubt they will do this, but they will be in a position to demand the US conform to their wishes, especially about Taiwan. ..."

China has always realized the they cannot stop the US with military - that is large part of why they built a lethal to US economic gun, financing US debt, but also it helped them build their economy via exports to the US and large capital influx to build the world's most modern industrial plant via huge "trickle down" FDI that GWB's tax relief for the rich make possible.

well here is the problem. China won't dare put the US in debt.

Here is why, first off, it's a one shot gun, they have one bullet and that is all, once they use it they are out of the game.

Also, if China does do that, nobody in the US will ever buy chinese again, the fact that we now feel that if we buy Chinese, they will do it again. American businesses would sky rocket and Chinese industry would collapse, because the fact is that a lot of what China is building is money they get from exports, and their number 1 buyer is the US, they cannot afford to lose our business.

In the end, that one shot gun is:
a.) not reliable
b.) one time use
c.) will piss off the USA unbelievably

People get the illusion that the USA is as fragile as a twig in a hurricane right now. The fact is, it is not. Taking 2 trillion dollars will hurt us a shit load, but it won't kill us. But the effect of taking that money would be a death blow to China.

Because the USA has the ability to reconstruct our economy by ourselves. China does not have that ability, it would need exports to do that, and if their number one business partner won't help them, they cannot do it, and if their number 1 business partner leaves, so do all the rest when they see China collapsing

Chinese business is built out of stone and wood, it is by no means concrete, it is to reliant on others and that is an inevitable problem.
 
Where did I say, I was for being an international policeman? I didn't. You are changing the subject. The subject was, China = nice guy.

We do the same? I think you need to do some reading. Are you saying US vessels in international waters are running drugs? Are you saying the US Naval survey vessel was running drugs?

And lastly there was no real controversy about the position of the US airplane or what happened...only spin.
Perhaps not much dispute over where the plane was when Chinese fighter caught up with it, but some over the "internationality" of the waters there is a difference of opinion. China claims a lot of islands and most of the South China Sea is Chinese waters. (The name also supports this claim historically.) The US also uses the doctrine of hot pursuit to capture what it regards as criminals who make it outside of its territorial waters.

The 12 mile national limit (set by max cannon range in early 1800s I think) even the US ignores. There is a now recognized a recognized Economic exclusive zone" but how far it extends is not commonly agreed. For example, Brazil new oil field is 170 or more miles off the coast of Brazil. I think the US uses 200 miles for the "exclusive use" zone, but I assure you that Brazil will not allow* the US to drill for oil 201 miles off the coast of Brazil (may not be feasible anyway now.)

The main reason that US plane was forced down in China was it was gathering electronic intelligence on China's radar defenses. US and USSR did this all the time during the cold war and both forced the others planes down. USSR even shot down Gary Power's U2, and did not tell he survived. (He did not take the cyanide pill, so US had a lot of egg on its face when Krucheff produced him later to refute the US claims of "no intrusion.")

These elint planes must fly close enough to the ground radars to "tickle them" and then try to run away quickly with records of the radar responses.

In this case the US plane did not escape from the Chinese fighters and they forced it to land. China stripped out all the electronic equipment and one of the motors. They probably learned a lot from both. They did have a lot of gall, in charging the US for the freight to ship the stripped hull back! But we did nothing, but pay.

We know they can now kill the US economically anytime they like, but will not while they still need to export to the US. I.e. they will not make that self injury, but it does appear to me, from the steeping of the yield curve, that they have stopped buying of the 30 year Treasury bonds.
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*Brazil is buying French subs (6 if I recall correctly) and a bunch of attack helicopters (can fire missles or land marines) to protect it off shore oil platforms etc.
 
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But most of the teen-late 20's people I know are significantly less prudent with their finances.

Yeah, I know quite a few late-20's early-30's Chinese, who were among the first generation of one-child policy kids. While it's fairly typical for young people everywhere to spend money carelessly, I think there is a very marked difference in their attitudes towards family planning, and their expectations in terms of savings and lifestyle, compared to their elders. It's basically the usual entitled only-child mentality that arises from not having to share your parents' attentions and devotion with siblings, except greatly magnified by the fact that there's an entire generation of such people.
 
but some over the "internationality" of the waters there is a difference of opinion. China claims a lot of islands and most of the South China Sea is Chinese waters.

It should be mentioned that it is not only the US that dislikes China's expansive claims to the South China Sea. Vietnam, the Phillipines, Singapore, Malaysia (and pretty much every other country in the area) all have territorial disputes with China over the place, and much bigger cause for concern. China does not enjoy any real outside support for its claims in this area, and most of the interested parties seem to regard them as hostile on the matter.
 
It should be mentioned that it is not only the US that dislikes China's expansive claims to the South China Sea. Vietnam, the Phillipines, Singapore, Malaysia (and pretty much every other country in the area) all have territorial disputes with China over the place, and much bigger cause for concern. China does not enjoy any real outside support for its claims in this area, and most of the interested parties seem to regard them as hostile on the matter.
I think that correct about claims to S. China sea*, but the economic zone seems to split the boundary fairly. China and Vietnam about two years ago agreed on how the oil of Tomkim Bay should be divided. (Some think that was the real cause of the Vietnam War, but I am inclined to think It was more John Foster Dulles's idea that communistic expansion anywhere must be stopped.)
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*It is sort of like US gets upset with Russian warship in the Gulf of Mexico. China is the de-factor local force in the area, just as US is in the Gulf of Mexico. Four or five nations, claim at least some of the Spratly Islands are theirs.

Here from just released Economist is a map showing the economic zone:

CAS917.gif


Here is the text just above this map:
"... The Chinese say the Impeccable was on a spy mission. Detecting submarines is indeed one of her roles, and Hainan is home to Chinese submarine bases. Moreover, says China’s foreign ministry, the vessel was in China’s exclusive economic zone. It accused the Impeccable of violating international and Chinese law. The Americans said it was the Chinese who had broken international law by not respecting the safety of a “lawful” ocean user. ..."

I would not be the least bit surprized** if the US ship did not leave some radio isotope powered recorders on the sea floor to record (AND LATER BE INTEROGATED) the movement of China's subs in and out of their base.

**In fact it would surprizing if it did not. It is very useful to know and discriminate each sub just by the unique sound signatures.
 
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China is the de-factor local force in the area, just as US is in the Gulf of Mexico. Four or five nations, claim at least some of the Spratly Islands are theirs.

I would say China is a force in the area, but still in no position to get into a naval war with the United States there.

Here from just released Economist is a map showing the economic zone:

And as you can see, Chinese claims are wildly in excess of their exclusive economic zone, and are clearly a ploy to exert control over the passage of goods through the Strait of Malacca. This is understandable, since some huge percentage of China's energy imports go through there, but it is nevertheless a claim that nobody else views with any sympathy.

There was a fascinating article on Indo-Chinese naval rivalry in the Indian Ocean in the most recent issue of Foreign Affairs. While China looks to control the western side of the Strait, India is balancing against such a possibility by building up naval forces on the eastern side, in the Andaman and Nicobar islands. Not a fun time to be Thailand, if you ask me...
 
I honestly dont care if China 'overtook\overtakes' the U.S\North America and South America?

*john packs bags to move to China*
 
Interesting/ informative on CHINA is: http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13278758
Where you read (but not my comments in blue):

"… Chinese investment in railways, roads and power grids is already booming. In the first two months of this year {2009}, total fixed investment was 30% higher in real terms than a year earlier, and investment in railways tripled. ... in the short term this is the quickest way to boost domestic demand. …"

Especially true in China where people save ~40% of their income, in large part as there is a very weak social security / health care net provided by the CCP. It will take more than a generation before they learn how to get deep into debt with credit cards, loans, etc. like Americans can. (Most Chinese, do not even know what a credit card is!)

“… China has not only accomplished considerable fiscal and monetary easing... By allowing the yuan to rise by 18% in trade-weighted terms over the past 12 months, Beijing is passing on some of that boost to the rest of the world."(Strong RMB increases imports.)
The real question is whether China’s stimulus is big enough? Exports fell ... industrial production also dropped .... and retail-sales growth slowed... Still a nation of scared savers But there are some tentative signs of a recovery in domestic demand. As well as the increases in investment and bank lending, car sales and electricity consumption have picked up. Mingchun Sun of Nomura reckons that the stimulus will be enough to achieve 8% growth this year. But the government has made it clear that if the economy remains feeble, it will supply another fiscal boost. ..."

The current Foreign Affairs argues that the CCP is NOT in danger, even if living standards contract, here:
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/artic...he-chinese-communist-party-survive-the-crisis

And I might add that the population will long remember the great material advanced in living standards the CCP has delivered for past three decades.

PS to Quadraphonics. Thanks for the FA ref on China/India’s potential conflict at sea. I would guess that even if India cannot control the straights they can stop oil tankers from using it. I.e. China is in a no win position but India can still get oil from the Gulf region. This may be why China is so interested in developing the oil of Tompkins Gulf, from its western provences and from Russia as well as Brazil and Africa in long term contracts. (Brazil’s recent loan of 10 billion dollars with 160,000 barrels/day as repayment. And 43 billion to Russian & Venezuela. Not to mention being in bed with the Arab rulers of Sudan.)
 
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"… Chinese investment in railways, roads and power grids is already booming. ....

And yet the greater majority of Chinese people wallow in dire poverty, hunger, ill-health, low-education, low child-mortality rates, ..., and a slew of other such national tragedies. Interesting, huh?

Billy, what's the percentage of Chinese people who enjoy the advantages of those Chinese investment of which you speak so fondly?

Baron Max
 
And yet the greater majority of Chinese people wallow in dire poverty, hunger, ill-health, low-education, low {HIGH BM surely means} child-mortality rates, ..., and a slew of other such national tragedies.

Billy, what's the percentage of Chinese people who enjoy the advantages of those Chinese investment of which you speak so fondly? Baron Max

"dire poverty" - probably true by US poverty standards. I can remember when the average income of Canada was below the US defined poverty level. "Poverty" is hard to define and very relative. When I still had my cattle farm in Brazil I paid my main 44hours /week worker ~100 dollars / month, and that made some of my neighbors mad. - Their labors were asking for a raise. He would never have proclaimed himself to be in "poverty" - He too had a farm, chickens, pigs and cattle, locally caught fish, big garden, fruit and coffee trees, tobacco etc. He lived outside the cash economy, buying only salt, sugar, some oil for his garden fresh salids, and a little flour* plus a beer or two saturday nites at the local mud and sticks constructed bar (all gathered there to shair stories etc. - it opened once per week for about 8 to 10 hours I have seen more than 20 horses tied outside) His cooking oil was lard* from his pigs, the cigarette "paper" for his roll your own was the intermost layer of the corn husk**, etc. Clothing came from my hand me downs and the essentially free supply at the church that other urbanites had given. (I was only at farm a couple of week-ends each month.) His major expense was electric power. -The stove was wood fired. I think it is much the same in rural China or ancient Egypt for than matter. I am not too impressed with cities and their "progress."
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*His wife made corn meal with large mortar & pissile made from tree stump so not much wheat flour needed. - Lots of thin corn bread wrapped packets of meat and herbs deep fried was typical main course. Good but not for my health so I tried to avoid accepting without offening. Home made cheese and fruits for dissert.

**Once when in town together, I offered to buy him a pack of regular cigarettes, but he said his were better - sweeter and just thanked me for the offer.

"hunger" - Social custom dictates (in rural Brazil) that no one eats in presence of others without offering to share. (My laborer returned from his field labors for lunch and always offered to shair with me. I suspect this is true in rural China as well so doubt there are any truely hungry in China, now - perhaps 30 years ago there were. When I was a kid, still going to church, there was a monthly collection for the "poor staving Chinese" but those days are long gone except for major droughts etc. but then the CCP provides from other regions.

"health care" - I will grant that one, if we discount a lot of folk medicine. (My hired man's wife had a tea for everything that ailed you. Only if really sick would one try to get into the town's free clinic on the milk truck.) China's CCP has not been much concerned about keeping the sick alive, unless well connected. - The recent contaminated milk problem exposed that the food for the leaders and well connected comes from special farms etc. Pesants the CCP had plenty of - why waste state resources on their health? That too seems to be changing:
The CCP now understands that exports to US and EU will fall as they sink into depression. That China needs to turn to domestic market for future growth, but that is hard to achieve if population saves 40% of their income. (They do that because of their history and fact there is no adequate health care system provided. - not an insignificant part of the new stimulus is for health care services.

"low education" - Not sure about the average but definitely getting better, with a lot of remote transmitted classes now to aid local teachers (and to make sure all know the party line) At university level it is very competive and high quality. (They just made the planned controlled crash of their more than year long moon orbiting satellite and shot down one in Earth orbit recently.) - It is very rapidly improving as China is in the process of stealing the best western educated professors and building 50 Harvard or MIT level universities. - See my first post this thread (#3, I think) for the names of some world leading professors China hired away a few years ago with big salaries and new labs.

High infant mortality. - probably true with lack of pre natal care and female infanticide still not rare in rural areas under the one child only policy.

I do not "speak fondly" of all China's strengths - but it does help to be realistic and well informed about your enemy. Can you support any of your claims I have tried to refute above?
 
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China has a long history of agressively claiming territory. It is now making claims to space. A nation or an individual can make all kinds of claims, but they mean nothing unless some one recognizes those claims.

And as of this writing I don't think any nation other than China recognizes any of its many disputed territorial claims.
 
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