China's Emergence As A Global Superpower

With the help of Africa, definitely. There is so much mineral resources China is digging up, all for a song.
 
I have long answered question with "Yes" based mainly on my prediction that the US would be going down faster than China was going up to close the gap. People who have disputed my POV mainly focused on the fact that China is very far behind and even with 2 or 3 times the growth rate could not catch up for many decades. I.e. They ignored the effect of US going down to close the gap.(because back some years ago that was “inconceivable” to them, I guess.)

If following is true, the rate of US going down (which is already accelerating) will be like US economy falling off a cliff:

"The banking crisis is about to get a whole lot uglier, and there’s no stopping it—all thanks to China’s decision to end further investment in the U.S."

This from: Email to me from RobertHsu@Chinaprofitstrategy.com

Hsu is a US citizen but a native of Taiwan. For years, he has been selling his investment services (focused on China). He has organized at least a dozen tours to China for rich investors to meet with Chinese CEOs, who are his friends and as far as I can tell he does have some connections at the higher levels of government.

There have been other recent statements by high Chinese official, including the Premier, Wen, just a couple of days ago (See my BRIC thread for link and comments) that China is rethinking its policy of buying US treasury paper.

If the FED is the only significant buyer of the 1.5 or more trillion dollars of new Treasury paper in 2009, then the dollar collapse I predicted long ago (for this reason, among others) is very near (couple of years away, at most).

Also interesting to note that in Jan09 more cars were sold in China than in the USA, but both sales are greatly reduced for Jan08.

From today’s newspaper, here is the Jan08 to Jan09 changes in standing of top ten producers (by number of cars sold in the country in January):

Jan07 ---> Jan08

1 USA ---> 2
2 China ---> 1
3 Japan ---> 3
4 Germany ---> 4
5 Russia ---> 9
6 Brazil ---> 5
7France ---> 6
8 UK ---> 10
9 Italy ---> 7
10 India ---> 8

SUMMARY: In terms of car sales, China has already passed the US, just as globally Toyoto has passed GM for the number one spot.
If I were a young man I sure would be learning to speak Mandarin.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Knight Kiplinger, Editor-in-Chief, The Kiplinger Letter states:

"... There’s no chance of the Asian giant {China} falling into the kind of recession the US is in. China has plenty of tools to fight its slowdown, including fiscal stimulus. Chinese debt at the government, corporate, and household levels is minimal, so there’s plenty of room for China to spend more without driving up interest rates.

Beijing is ramping up investment not only in infrastructure projects to provide jobs, but also in health care, education, pensions, and transfer payments to households. Plus it’s forcing banks to lend more. Beijing owns the financial institutions, so, unlike Washington, it needn’t rely on persuasion or incentives to get its way.

And China is subsidizing consumer goods...cell phones, freezers, cars, etc. It also has lifted many of the recent barriers to real estate acquisitions. Imposed to deflate China’s property bubble, the restrictions wound up bursting it. ... Expect 8%-9% growth to be the new norm when recovery finally comes. ..."

Full article at: http://www.moneyshow.com/investing/articles.asp?aid=GURU-16155&iid=GURU&scode=011415

ANOTHER POV for young guys especially (Chinese ladies are still focused on their man)*:

"More and more Americans and Europeans are moving to the Greater China region. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out why this trend is happening -- China's economy is one of the few in the world still growing. As we discussed last week, the country should post GDP growth between 6% and 7% in 2009, while most other nations record negative or zero percent growth.

In addition, China's is a tempting place to move to because the country offers a low cost of living. Compared to other major cities in the world, like Tokyo, London and New York, living in Shanghai is relatively affordable. Just take a look at the facts…

■A 600-square-foot apartment in Shanghai costs around $500 per month;
■A 20-minute taxi ride in the city usually costs less than $5;
■Restaurants offer appetizing fare for less than $6 -- particularly during lunch hours;
■A McDonald's Big Mac costs around $1.49.
As you can see, there are some strong positives for moving to China during these tough economic times. And along with offering an affordable cost of living, China provides some exciting places and experiences. It's easy to see why so many people would want to move there. ..."

From: http://www.chinainvestingadvice.com/dispatch/global_investing_090205.html?sid=KM2103&en=1400306

Billy T question: With 15% differential growth rate in GDPs (China = +9 & US = - 6) How long before China passes the US in GDP? I guess still more than a decade, but in which enviroment would you prefer to be? (If China, remember you can not climb on soap box and say this government stinks - many will be doing that soon in the USA.)

Here is Bloomberg's POV:
"China’s economy is showing signs that a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion)** stimulus package is taking effect. ... Spending on roads railways and housing has increased prices for iron ore, put a floor under industrial output and helped to drive a record $237 billion of new loans in January.

“China looks set to be the first major economy to recover from the current global meltdown,” said Lu Ting, an economist with Merrill Lynch & Co. in Hong Kong. “China is the only economy in the world to see significant growth in credit to corporate and household sectors after September 2008, when the financial crisis worsened to a near collapse.”

Projects such as the building of 3.5 billion yuan of public houses in Shaanxi province and Shanghai began in December, while Shandong province started work on three new railway lines the same month. ...
The value of new loans in January was more than double the record set a year earlier, ... The lending multiplies the effect of the government’s spending in ways that wouldn’t be possible in the U.S. and Europe, where banks are burdened by toxic assets, said Dwyfor Evans, a strategist with State Street Global Markets in Hong Kong. ..."

From: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ackHHxtWoFHc&refer=home
----------------------
* If you can "tele-comute" to work, Keep US job and work China's nights and sleep with them in the day, at least until you are a Chinese business owner geting rich with the growth. Why were there no opportunities like this when I was young and single? :shrug: :bawl: ;) As Tail of Two Cities said (could have been about NYC & Hong Kong): "It is the worst of times and the best of times."

**Much larger than US's when compared to GDP and as noted in last lines above, is being multiplied by the banks lending - something not possible now in the USA.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Actually no. The USA nominal GDP is 14.3 trillion dollars, China's is 4.3 trillion.

Yes China, on their best day is 1/3 of what the US is on their worst day.
 
Whats the debt on either side? Balance sheet includes profits and losses.
 
Well I find it interesting that a lot of folks are talking about China leading the world out of recession. Assuming that is true what does that say about the United States. China already leads The United States in total exports.
 
...China already leads The United States in total exports.
And sales of new cars. Here is why:

CSR971.gif
Graphs from Economist special report at: http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13063298

China's Middle class is now larger than total US population and their income is rapidly growing (2008 purchases up 22% on 2007) US sales have fallen off a cliff as everyone is either scared or up to the eyeballs indebt already (most are both) Chinese debt is low at all levels from the peasant to the top of government, which has about 10 trillion in its pocket to help their economy fend off the "made in USA" depression that is coming.

After the Chinese learn what credit cards are and how to spend more than their income with them, they too can have a generation or two of rapid prosperity and then collapse - about 2050, I would guess.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
I should hope so. They have more people. Hopefully they will eventually embrace democracy and real capitalism, which will mean that they begin to output more than our limited population.

To want China to remain behind us is to wish a miserable existence for a billion people just because they are a different color. In other words: Racism.
 
I should hope so. They have more people. Hopefully they will eventually embrace democracy and real capitalism, which will mean that they begin to output more than our limited population.

To want China to remain behind us is to wish a miserable existence for a billion people just because they are a different color. In other words: Racism.

Are you an idiot? China is not behind us, they own us. Did you look at the national debt? Do you know who owns the dollar and the federal reserve? China is our owner.
 
And sales of new cars. Here is why:

CSR971.gif
Graphs from Economist special report at: http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13063298

China's Middle class is now larger than total US population and their income is rapidly growing (2008 purchases up 22% on 2007) US sales have fallen off a cliff as everyone is either scared or up to the eyeballs indebt already (most are both) Chinese debt is low at all levels from the peasant to the top of government, which has about 10 trillion in its pocket to help their economy fend off the "made in USA" depression that is coming.

After the Chinese learn what credit cards are and how to spend more than their income with them, they too can have a generation or two of rapid prosperity and then collapse - about 2050, I would guess.


Incomes and numbers don't matter. The simple fact is that China produces stuff, even if its junk, they produce and create stuff and so the economy is ranked by production capacity. The USA produces nothing but debt, we basically live off credit.
 
Incomes and numbers don't matter. The simple fact is that China produces stuff, even if its junk, they produce and create stuff and so the economy is ranked by production capacity. The USA produces nothing but debt, we basically live off credit.

That's not actually true, the US is still the world leading economic power and its not without reason. Of course manufacturing and production in the States is going to continue to lose out to China... but the states has made what I see as a successful transition from a manufacturing driven economy to one that is more diversified and driven by innovation from the top experts in the world that the great majority of which are based in the US. Good evidence for this is the number of patents and new products coming out of the US.

I have been living and working in China for the past 18 months, I came here with the perception that the Governance system here (although somewhat inhumane) enabled the country to be driven much more efficiently and effectively. All evidence I have seen, however, is to the contrary. The stagnant culture amongst those who are responsible for implementation and regulation of Government mandates gives birth to results that I can only describe as ridiculous.

The great majority of innovation taking place in China is a result of the presence of multinational companies and cannot be attributed to China as a nation.

Yes, people here are hungry for success and are getting a whiff of it, but the cultural definitions for success will not result in productive by-products from their pursuit as it does in many Western countries.

There is a great deal to write on this topic and strong points for both sides of the coin... but from my experience living here and the consensus of other expats here is that China has a very very long way to go. Although economic growth is evident, this is most definitely cost driven and unsustainable when GDP per capita becomes nearer to developed nations and people stop wanting to work for $3 a day. Aside from the economy and its current growth sources, the culture which is a by-product of the Government (not just the top echelons but also the local Government) is not nurturing the skills and motivations in people that is required to build a knowledge and innovation driven economy.

I came here sure that China would be the leading super power in the coming decades, I am now almost certain this will not be the case.
 
China got a lot of problems.

Too many men not enough women.

MASSIVE Pollution, can't breathe in it's industrial cities without a mask.

Oppressive government. Rampant corruption. Dependence on foreign food.

Luckily, they are a methodical patient people. They are in no hurry, so they will be fine.

Overtake the U.S in size of economy? Who cares? Then we can sell plastic shit to them.
 
I came here sure that China would be the leading super power in the coming decades, I am now almost certain this will not be the case.

This has to be the most-necromancies thread on SciForums, but here's my 2 cents anyway:

A nation in China's geopolitical position has to be a superpower just to survive, let alone throw real weight around on the world stage. They're surrounded by Japan, Russia, India, Pakistan, Central Asia, Southeast Asia, the Phillipines and Indonesia. Not sure exactly what the combined population of those countries works out to, but it's gotta be some impressive fraction of humanity (and I count three nuclear powers in the mix).

The United States, by contrast, only has to worry about Canada and Mexico, and can blow the rest of its power pissing off people in other continents. If anything goes wrong on one of those adventures, we simply retreat back to the island. The penalty for breaking the prohibition on land wars in Asia is a lost election, and maybe a recession. But if China makes that kind of mistake... ouch.

And, in the first place, the geography and demographics of the United States are more favorable for long-term growth and prosperity. The impact of the one-child policy is only now becoming apparent on China's workforce. It has been suggested the China's large savings rate is largely attributable to the one-child policy, as households ended up saving all of the income they would have used to raise additional children (and maybe more) in order to make up for having less children to support them later in retirement. It will be interesting to watch the savings rate over the coming decade or two.
 
If I were a young man I sure would be learning to speak Mandarin.
Damn happy I can speak Mandarin!
All evidence I have seen, however, is to the contrary. The stagnant culture amongst those who are responsible for implementation and regulation of Government mandates gives birth to results that I can only describe as ridiculous.
I'm in complete agreement with this. China produces some of the most phenomenal wastes of money and has a remarkably poor education system. Very, very far behind the West in many respects.
It will be interesting to watch the savings rate over the coming decade or two.
There are reasons above simply the one-child policy that will make this interesting to watch. The culture has changed massively. The current 40+ generation saves because their primary desire is to see their child's wealth. They are deeply driven by the more traditional sense of family wealth. Much like my grandparents' generation in Canada (75+) they experienced extreme poverty (well beyond that in Canada, frankly) and will work hard to save small amounts of money.

The 30-40 year old generation is somewhat more liberal with their money, though still focused on saving for a house, a wedding, etc.

But most of the teen-late 20's people I know are significantly less prudent with their finances. They will spend huge portions of their monthly paycheck on clothes and technology. It's not unusual to find out a recent college graduate's cell phone cost 2 months of his salary, and that he'll buy another new one in less than a year. Maybe I just wasn't aware in Canada, but I can't remember many people I knew spending two months' salary on a cell phone.
 
Are you an idiot? China is not behind us, they own us. Did you look at the national debt? Do you know who owns the dollar and the federal reserve? China is our owner.

Were like 1 or 2 trillion dollars in debt. That's big. But compared to 14.3 trillion dollar gdp it can kiss our ass.

The GDP of the USA on its WORST day is three times that as China on it's BEST day.
 
Were like 1 or 2 trillion dollars in debt. That's big. But compared to 14.3 trillion dollar gdp it can kiss our ass.
The GDP of the USA on its WORST day is three times that as China on it's BEST day.
Your first sentence is why Hillary went to beg from China.

Your second sentence is backwards looking but is now true, however, that can easily change in 2009, if China desires, not by China going up, but by US going into depression.

here From Bloomberg:

"... Wen Jiabao: “We have lent a huge amount of money to the United States,” Wen said at a press briefing in Beijing today after the annual meeting of the legislature. “I request the U.S. to maintain its good credit, to honor its promises and to guarantee the safety of China’s assets.” … “Of course we are concerned about the safety of our assets. To be honest, I am a little bit worried.”
“China won’t sell the U.S. debt now as that will only drive down Treasury prices, hurting not only the U.S. but also the value of its own investments,” said Shen Jianguang, a Hong Kong-based economist at China International Capital Corp., an investment bank partly owned by Morgan Stanley.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will defend his spending plans at the Group of 20 meeting near London this weekend. French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde and Germany’s Peer Steinbrueck of Germany want the summit to focus on improving regulation and restraints on the finance industry.
The U.S. trade deficit and the government’s “nearly unrestricted” borrowing led to excess liquidity worldwide and “sowed the seeds” of the financial crisis, the People’s Bank of China said in a report today.
“China is worried that the U.S. may solve its problems by printing money, which will stoke inflation,” said Zhao Qingming, a Beijing-based analyst at China Construction Bank Corp., the country’s second-biggest lender. “If the U.S. can make sure this won’t happen, then China will continue to invest.”
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton urged China, while visiting officials in Beijing on Feb. 22, to continue buying U.S. debt, which she called a “safe investment.” ..."
From: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aVq1dGC2ozoY&refer=home

I have long posted that it is not yet in China's interest to send US & EU into depression, by stopping to finance the US debt. It will be when China's factories are hard pressed to meet the domestic demand (being greatly stimulated now as exports drop) and promisses in long term contracts for supplies of raw materials, food stocks and energy. (Paid for, not in dollars, but in new Dams* of hydropower plants, railroads, ports, mines, tractors & harvestors, etc. and computers, cell phones , plus equipment for schools, hospitals, etc. - all items Chinese factories will make.)
---------------
*Half of all new dams now under construction are in Africa, almost all by Chinese. (There is usually some local friction as the Chinese live in their separate housing, eat separtely etc.)
 
Well Billy, my dad said we should not bet on China.

I would take that seriously :p
 
Good posts Billy T, as usual. I am much more hopeful now for The United States than I have been in a very long time. We now have an intelligent, uncorrupted executive looking out for the interests of The United States who also has a political mandate.

I think we would help China greatly by giving them a few of our Republican leaders in the Senate and House. Such a move would greatly improve opportunites in the US-China arena. They can tell China that spending on stimulus is a waste of money and put them into huge debts rather quickly.

My principal concern with China is the prospect of an unexpected military encounter. China continues its policy of harrasing US Naval vessels and aircraft in international waters. These encounters could cause an international crisis...then what and what would that do to trade relationships?
 
Back
Top