Welcome Exhumed.
You are right. Most Americans still think the "brain drain" is bringing talent to the US, and it is true to some extent in that many foreign students do still come to study, but the trend is that few of them will remain in the US as opportunities in US are closing, especially in the main field of scientific advances (biology, which will be to this new century what physics was to the past century) The US policy on stem cell research, not only will injure those who will need the medical treatments it can provide, but everyone as other parts of the world take the scientific leadership role in this new century. The crudely administrated anti-terror immigration policy is also contributing to the collapse of US scientific leadership. I.e. the US is no longer the "land of opportunity."
I remember that the goal of the Chinese education program was 50 "Harvard of Better" new universities, not 30, but see I said 30, at time I made the post you quoted, so probably the 30 is correct - does not matter as the point is China will soon be able to attract "the best and the brightest" from all the world, instead of the US.
Recent US policy has made most of the world really hate the US (My wife will no long drink coke, or buy any US made product.) This is another reason why the student who do come to study will not stay as they did in past years. Many foreign students will not even come, but select China, the clear "up and coming land of opportunity." - This is not just my opinion, but the opinion of most of the world's investors -China is the first nation in the history of the world to receive more than 100 billion dollars of Foreign Direct Investment in one year ($102 billion FDI in 2005.)
I have always admired the industrious and serious nature of the Chinese students I taught. As I said in a prior post, the student attitude towards learning is at least as important as the quality o the professors teaching them. I have not the least doubt that with all the funds being made available to the new superior-level-education expansion in China (China is effectively "buying" many of the world's best professors) and the Chinese culture of hard work and respect for your elders, that China will have, in only about 5 years, 30 "Harvard or Better" new university centers. Then very few of the world's "brightest and best" will chose to come to US to study, especially if its stupid restrictions on research in biology, the "ID is science" movement, etc, are still in effect. They will go to the new "land of opportunity" where educational opportunities are better, more available, and cost of living is much lower, not to mention the fact that they also get to perfect their skills in the language that will clearly be the most important one in their lifetimes. (If I were 55 years younger, I would be applying to a Chinese university now, to beat the rush.)
In a generation or two, America will sink to "has been" status, (or sooner if its currency is essentially worthless before that). America will not even be able to compete with Brazil, et. al, as a suppliers of food stocks, raw materials, and low-valued-added, semi-finished, goods to China, the world's new high-value-added production center.
Every one knows that the GDP growth rate of China is at least three times that of the US and has been for more than a decade. I have previously pointed out that this does not reflect the true extent of the problem as one must look at what is in the GDP. - The US's GDP has a lot that does not contribute to industrial capacity: - Rock-concert sales, NFL related economic activity, etc. but China's GDP is mainly new railroads, chemical plants, car plants, dams, ports, power plants (almost one per day!). I now can give this effect more quantitatively:
US industrial production growth in 2005 = 2.8%
China industrial production growth in 2005 = 16.6%
data from:
http://indiastockblog.com/article/6413 {despite being a blog, if you visit a few times, you will learn as I have that it is a center for fast and accurate financial news of Asia - I bought ADRs of Tara motor, 1.5 years ago because I learned here that they are building the plant that will sell the $2,200 four-passenger, no-rust car - see eariler post}
Thus in areas where it matters for the future, China's growth rate is 6, not 3, times greater than the US's growth rate.
There is a very convenient, and surprisingly accurate, way to calculate the number of years any growth rate (with practical interest) REQUIRES TO DOUBLE. - Just divide 72 by the percentage. Thus, China's industrial might will double in 12 years. China has already passed France and England in general GDP, and although I do not have hard data, I think in "important GDP"* China has also passed Japan and Germany.
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*I.e. Gross GDP with the items that do not last for at least a few years, such as last year's vacation-travel expenditures, etc., stripped out. Unfortunately, much of he US's GDP is for items that have short (some times only hours, like a rock concert) of value. I am not sure there even is a word in Mandarin Chinese for "vacation." Many young Chinese workers are working such long hours, then studying late into the night in their shared one-bedroom apartments, that they are too tired to take a vacation anyway.
As you said, few Americans can see what is happening, fast. It is a form of "mass denial" - a psychological disturbance, IMHO, caused by years of clear leadership, taken for granted as unchangeable.
See First post in politics forum of thread "State of the Union" where I wrote a truthful State of the Union message, for GWB to use, but his was the customary "pep-talk" and self-congratulation nonsense. I wrote
Dark Visitor because all my grandchildren live in the US and their future looks bleak as a result.
