Bush Hurricane Conspiracy

pardon, I heard the accent when I read it the first time and couldn't resist running with it.... yarrrrrrrgh.

for whatever reason I heard the phrase "hey it's national talk-like-a-pirate day" recently and well, it doesn't take much to set me off.. :)
 
wesmorris said:
I'm confused as to why you post a link that apparently undermines everything you said in this thread. Were you "just kidding" or something? Have you changed your mind, or do you not find that site credible? :confused:

Did u check the first link , because the second link shows clearly who the person is who first initiated the anti-global-warming fishtank..
Not surprising how influencial that man has been....

He was the guy who was pointing out that the Y2k bug was going to collapse industries, cause power failures etc. across the planet!!
And look how many mistakes he's made.... And by jeezuz, his homepage looks cruddy as heck..... It just reeks of religion based faith healing stupidity...

Basically, that guy sent off a letter to get as many signatures as he possibly could , anybody with a phD in wanking offf could sign it as a scientist devoted to studying earths climate... And this passed through and was sent off to government, and people where instantly convinced!!!

I guess you're right Wesmorris, we humans are too stupid to make a difference. Let's just go right ahead and argue AGAINST as many dangers as possible.... At least we're living a good life right!!

Hehe...
 
Appeal to populace: not matter how many people agree does not make something right/correct.
 
Marsoups said:
Did u check the first link ,

Not really. I did now though, just skimmed it. I would have read it perhaps were it relevant.

because the second link shows clearly who the person is who first initiated the anti-global-warming fishtank..
Not surprising how influencial that man has been....

Ah, so it's a conspiracy. Good that you can politicize science. You don't have a choice do you? I mean, you don't understand science, but anyone can talk cheap politics eh? All it takes is a smidge of the non-sensical rhetoric and shazaam, people like you, convinced they're informed about something that is pure rhetoric. You're a stooge. Perhaps you can think for yourself but you're lacking the tools to do so rationally. You think you know what you're talking about, but you don't even know what questions to ask.

He was the guy who was pointing out that the Y2k bug was going to collapse industries, cause power failures etc. across the planet!!

You see this is a major part of your problem. You don't understand science or math, so you have to investigate this like a character hunt. The problem with that is, someone's history doesn't have shit to do with whether or not a statement they make is scientifically valid. You don't know how to judge the statement itself, so you revert to an examination of character to try to find precedent. While politically speaking, that might be good - it doesn't qualify you at all to actually judge the content of the statement. I can understand that you're just going on the best information you have to go on, but you have to understand that you're simply not qualified to make a rational assessment of the situation.

I'm trying to arm you with the right questions and a more pertinent understanding of the issues, but instead of considering what's said, it's easier for you to thing that anyone holding the position opposite of yours must be part of the conspiracy against the planet. For that you are an asshat. Stop being an asshat. I have children. I hope to have grandchildren. I want them to have somewhere to live and be happy. I'm concerned for the future of the planet. You don't believe that, because if so you might have to reconsider your position, which you're apparently quite fond of.

And look how many mistakes he's made.... And by jeezuz, his homepage looks cruddy as heck..... It just reeks of religion based faith healing stupidity...

All of that is completley irrelevant.

Basically, that guy sent off a letter to get as many signatures as he possibly could , anybody with a phD in wanking offf could sign it as a scientist devoted to studying earths climate...

Not only is that unsubstantiated, but it's hypocritical. You were defending scientists earlier, but now that it suits your cause you deride them. Are you friends with Senator Kerry?

And this passed through and was sent off to government, and people where instantly convinced!!!

:rolleyes: Irrelevant. If you want to discuss the validity of the document, discuss it. You're simply attempting to establish some completely irrelevant consipiracy. I believe you avoid the meat of the issue because you simply don't understand it as you've demonstrated time and time again.

I guess you're right Wesmorris, we humans are too stupid to make a difference.

Putting words in my mouth is pretty low, and doesn't support your position at all. It's just a stupid cheap shot from a guy with no substantive argument. I'm unimpressed.

Let's just go right ahead and argue AGAINST as many dangers as possible....
You don't have the tools to argue about it. You don't understand the issues, and your approach to the investigation is consequently fundamentally flawed. Find the answers to the questions I've posed and you'll be on a better track. I'm highly confident you won't find any good answers, which is the root of the issue. People are basing long term conclusions on short term trends. There are two major problems there. That is:

1) There is no definitive model for climate in the short-term at a distance of more than a few days.

2) There is no definitive model for climate in the long-term - it's even worse than the short-term. It's entirely hypothetical at this point.

At least we're living a good life right!!

Your insinuation that I don't care about future generations is arrogant, despicable and unfounded. I have children whom I love with all my heart. I want the best for them and their children. Accusations are pretty easy eh? I see you're pretty good with accusations. Can you back any of them up with any semblance of validity? That you would draw the conclusion that my attitude reflects "at least we're living a good life" is simply insulting and apparently indicative of a very small, feeble mind. Your entire argument is fallacy, yet you promote it like the bible. Yes, quite telling indeed.


I don't find you amusing. Angry and pathetic seem more appropriate. Ah, I forgot paranoid and dishonest.
 
Oh dear, just look at your reply ! Highly vindicative, looks like you've been pretty presumptious about me along the way..


wesmorris said:
Not really. I did now though, just skimmed it. I would have read it perhaps were it relevant.

It is highly relavent to an understanding of where the "its okay the kyoto scientists are talking crap) mentality that swept the globe after that announcement was made...
( Of course, as anybody with a brain can tell, it is quite simple to twist words around and feed anything as a response to what I say here). It seems that you don't have much compassion for other points of view, and I am imagining that your immediate response to that comment will be vindicative. As if I am some sort of a fool to propose something which I believe is happening....

Ah, so it's a conspiracy. Good that you can politicize science. You don't have a choice do you? I mean, you don't understand science, but anyone can talk cheap politics eh? All it takes is a smidge of the non-sensical rhetoric and shazaam, people like you, convinced they're informed about something that is pure rhetoric. You're a stooge. Perhaps you can think for yourself but you're lacking the tools to do so rationally. You think you know what you're talking about, but you don't even know what questions to ask.

Rhetoric eh ? I'm not sure where you're coming from. I've mentioned a few signs of things that have been happening, and I will not go over the signs again because it seems you wish to sidetrack the conversation constantly, not good for a discussion, a bit of Ad Hominem on your behalf there ay ?
The UN sanctions 10 000 scientists around the world and they determined that an earth warming, possibly with human amplification, is happening. Since the case has been proposed, AND substantiated by said scientists, how about you show some evidence that global warming is NOT happening. Show me proof that, CO2, methane emissions etc. CANNOT result in average temperature increases in a certain region (even on local levels). And please, I will not be impressed if you start demeaning me as I have not asked for that, I am trying to have a sensible conversation with you here but you constantly resort to cheap nonsensical flames which is besides the point.

Or do you prefer it that I deride you and run around and frollick around some supposed imperfections ?

You see this is a major part of your problem. You don't understand science or math, so you have to investigate this like a character hunt. The problem with that is, someone's history doesn't have shit to do with whether or not a statement they make is scientifically valid. You don't know how to judge the statement itself, so you revert to an examination of character to try to find precedent. While politically speaking, that might be good - it doesn't qualify you at all to actually judge the content of the statement. I can understand that you're just going on the best information you have to go on, but you have to understand that you're simply not qualified to make a rational assessment of the situation.

Your lingo of choice is rude, demeaning, and unneccesary. You say I don't understand science or math ? As if any one scientist has the authority to claim that without a doubt, that something exists and expect people to believe them based on some sort of long list of credentials? Very unscientific if you ask me, and this particularly reflects badly on yourself. I am sure many readers will agree with that.
Scientists are not neccesarily bright. It appears your feeling towards scientists suggests this.

And then you put words in my mouth, by claiming that I can't actually judge the statement for myself. I think that statement speaks for itself really..

Your response from there seems a bit "bla bla" for me. Hey let's give a dog a bone to chew on..

I'm trying to arm you with the right questions and a more pertinent understanding of the issues, but instead of considering what's said, it's easier for you to thing that anyone holding the position opposite of yours must be part of the conspiracy against the planet. For that you are an asshat. Stop being an asshat. I have children. I hope to have grandchildren. I want them to have somewhere to live and be happy. I'm concerned for the future of the planet. You don't believe that, because if so you might have to reconsider your position, which you're apparently quite fond of.

Well hey, I'm a respectful guy, I have a lot of respect for people in general. Please, don't be so assumptous about people, it's not doing you any good. I believe that sending out good energy to people will fill you up with positive energy. And of course, the converse.
I haven't said anything about conspiracies here, although this topic might indicate one, which is why I proposed that if we want to discuss this seriously then we should discuss it in the appropriate section. You ignored that, so I assume you wouldn't mind having a pseudoscience (is this really pseudoscience) conversation about the scientific theory of global warmin'.

I certainly do believe, and regardless of global warming mind you, that we should be stimulating efficient, clean, economies. There are many reasons, besides global warming (which to most people living on the planet is not a biggie), why we should be doing so. If you have shares in something that is potentially doing something destructive to the planet, then perhaps it's time that people reconsider and invest in better, less harmful economies for the future and our children.

Not only is that unsubstantiated, but it's hypocritical. You were defending scientists earlier, but now that it suits your cause you deride them. Are you friends with Senator Kerry?

Not so unsubstantiated - the signatures in that list did not come with specific details of all those scientist qualifications. There could be ecologisits living in some obscure national park signing that petition. Honestly , what would such people know or care about something which is not essentially a part of their scientific focus? I would be much more impressed if I saw a long list of verifiable signatures signed by scientists who are actively studying the topic of global weather patterns in some way than just an average scientist Joe living off the gulf of mexico.

I have no authority to defend or deride any scientists. Just an objective point of view is what counts. If we truly want to diagnose what's going on in this matter, then I would say a pretty authoritative guess to what the current opinion of scientists that are studying weather patterns (including those living in regions that are potentially being affected such as islands in the pacific that are being threatened by heightened sea levels, or somebody studying polar bears in the Arctic) is, would be to ask a few selected scientists on this matter.
We can have this argument until the cows come home, but the fact is none of us have the right qualifications or work experience to say in any manner of authority what we think we know what is going on based on what we read or hear...

One thing though I must just say, please don't get so worked up about me! I am seriously not worth your time doing so. We will most likely be having enough heartache in the future with wars, refugees, droughts, etc. all happening so perhaps it's time for us to start stocking up...

:rolleyes: Irrelevant. If you want to discuss the validity of the document, discuss it. You're simply attempting to establish some completely irrelevant consipiracy. I believe you avoid the meat of the issue because you simply don't understand it as you've demonstrated time and time again.

If that wasn't a conspiracy, then may I enquire whether you feel the Kyoto Protocol was a conspiracy?
I really do feel that this was some sort of wild guess made by some wacko scientist based on groundless ideas.

This is almost as bad as having a debate about whether the earth is flat.

Putting words in my mouth is pretty low, and doesn't support your position at all. It's just a stupid cheap shot from a guy with no substantive argument. I'm unimpressed.

My correction : sorry I didn't mean to put words in your mouth I thought about what I'd said afterwards and realised that I was taking a cheap shot without being concise... My apologies, I didn't have much time to read over what I'd said at the time of writing and was a bit flippant with wanting to shoot off with how stupid I felt, in that instant, maintstream society is not to see past all the lies and deceipt going on out there.
I just meaned to say that the current flow of thought from government is one which has a lack of consideration for people, too quick to rush in, pompous, primarily self interested and favouring the wealthy....... Too much to say there really, and not worth getting into since our opinions obviously differ so vastly on such matters.
You don't have the tools to argue about it. You don't understand the issues, and your approach to the investigation is consequently fundamentally flawed. Find the answers to the questions I've posed and you'll be on a better track. I'm highly confident you won't find any good answers, which is the root of the issue. People are basing long term conclusions on short term trends. There are two major problems there. That is:

There are no good answers to explain it, however there is always luck of the draw and odds, and that's good enough for me to form a basic set of opinions.
1) There is no definitive model for climate in the short-term at a distance of more than a few days.

2) There is no definitive model for climate in the long-term - it's even worse than the short-term. It's entirely hypothetical at this point.

Short term climate predicting is pretty noisy. And I don't need a PhD to conceptualise this. However scientists , recently, predicted that the volcanoe at at St. Helens would probably blow. They where almost right, and considering how many variables are involved in the process, that is quite remarkable.
If I was to propose to you that the Greys are currently visiting us, there are vast amounts of information out there which you can go study out there, skeptical and scientific opinions alike. Both perspectives are worth the while looking into, not just one which favours some predetermined side in the argument.

Your insinuation that I don't care about future generations is arrogant, despicable and unfounded. I have children whom I love with all my heart. I want the best for them and their children. Accusations are pretty easy eh? I see you're pretty good with accusations. Can you back any of them up with any semblance of validity? That you would draw the conclusion that my attitude reflects "at least we're living a good life" is simply insulting and apparently indicative of a very small, feeble mind. Your entire argument is fallacy, yet you promote it like the bible. Yes, quite telling indeed.

Having a bad day ? : ( I'm sorry it has turned out that way...
I honestly don't have much of an argument, your guess could be as good as mine on this. You are wagering on the "Let's hold with where we are until there is convincing evidence", I am not wagering on anything, I say let's put that wager into doing *something* to lower the odds in our favour while we do work out what is going on!

I don't find you amusing. Angry and pathetic seem more appropriate. Ah, I forgot paranoid and dishonest.

Man, I'm not so bad.. Just some oblivious germ on the other side of the world... Quite harmless, really :)

Have a nice day !

D
 
Marsoups said:
Oh dear, just look at your reply ! Highly vindicative, looks like you've been pretty presumptious about me along the way..

Vindictive? Hehe, you haven't seen me vindictive. I was trying to maintain as much civility as possible while responding to a guy who accuses me of basically being a selfish arrogant hypocrite who wants the world to die as soon as I'm done with it. Your prior post was a crock, a real fat stinking crock. You made no sense. My criticism of it was dead on.

It is highly relavent to an understanding of where the "its okay the kyoto scientists are talking crap) mentality that swept the globe after that announcement was made...

But none of that is relevant to the validity of the document. Either show how it's false or shut the fuck up about it, see? What the "community of scientists" thinks about it is really moot in the end, the objection is either valid or it isn't. You didn't even adress it's validity! You seem to simply presume since it was some guy you read is stupid, the fix must be in.

(Of course, as anybody with a brain can tell, it is quite simple to twist words around and feed anything as a response to what I say here). It seems that you don't have much compassion for other points of view, and I am imagining that your immediate response to that comment will be vindicative.

If someone objects to whatever and I know their objection to be foolish, I'll try to test them to see if they really understand what the hell they're talking about. It doesn't mean you're stupid, just ignorant or whatever. The fact is that your previous post was shit. It had little to do with anything and was basically you talking shit to and about me.

As if I am some sort of a fool to propose something which I believe is happening....

You are, because you're fucking unqualified to make the determination. You don't understand the issues, so your opinion is completely baseless. As such, yes, you are a fool.

Rhetoric eh ? I'm not sure where you're coming from. I've mentioned a few signs of things that have been happening, and I will not go over the signs again because it seems you wish to sidetrack the conversation constantly, not good for a discussion, a bit of Ad Hominem on your behalf there ay ?

No, a bit of a "see this is your problem, your opinion is baseless yet you expect it to be considered as meaningful and valid, for that you're simply foolish". Once a person demonstrates obvious foolishness, ad hominem is in order IMO. You did, and you got it. On top of that, your entire argument is ad hominem against or for scientists you think are or are not teling the truth or qualified, while you really have no basis besides popularity and your ongoing political investigation to base your criticisms of a scientific matter. I told you all this in the last post (worded differently) but maybe you don't care.

The UN sanctions 10 000 scientists around the world and they determined that an earth warming, possibly with human amplification, is happening.

IRRELEVANT. Look at the last paragraph on the second link in that post you were talking about before, the thing that all the scientists sign. It is true. If you can't refute exactly why it isn't, you should shut the hell up and think about the errors in your thinking. If you try to refute it with "because this guy says that" you're wrong. You need to understand the basis for making scientific determinations in order to easily see the validity in that statement, regardless of what anyone else says about it. Your criticism needs to be based in an honest discussion of the validity of the assertions made there, rather than "all these scientists here say "yay" whereas the others say "nay" and I like the "yay" people, DOWN with the "nay" people". Ultimately you're basically saying "west side is thee best". To their "east side is thee bessssst". When there needs to be some logical analysis of either. You are providing none.

Since the case has been proposed, AND substantiated by said scientists, how about you show some evidence that global warming is NOT happening.

See this is your fucking problem. You simply don't understand how this shit works. Further, you misrepresent my position with your question. You know that. You keep saying it because you have little else to offer. It's just stupid.

Show me proof that, CO2, methane emissions etc. CANNOT result in average temperature increases in a certain region (even on local levels). And please, I will not be impressed if you start demeaning me as I have not asked for that, I am trying to have a sensible conversation with you here but you constantly resort to cheap nonsensical flames which is besides the point.

How's this one: you're a fucking moron? Your bullshit is irrelevant. SHOW THAT HUMANS ARE THE CAUSE OF GLOBAL WARMING. You can't becase you don't know what the fuck you're talking about. You just bleet your sheepspeak. Baaaah. Baahh bleety boy. Rattle off your ignorance. Really make me believe it. Gawd. You are trying to have a sensible conversatoin about something you don't fucking GET. It's like a plumber trying to have a conversatoin about nuclear physics. You're the plumber, and I'm a guy who's had a couple of classes in physics. This has been explained to you very clearly a number of times now. You can either continue to wallow in your ignorance or learn something from persol or myself (or whomever else has something valid to offer, optimally, you'd be better off just getting educated on this before making assertions about it - don't understand science? STUDY IT, then have an intelligent conversation about it - I suppose if you just want to be annoying though you can just continue asserting horsecrap that your ignorance requires you to assert). We bring up these questions, not out of indignance, but because we understand science and the methods science must utilize to draw valid conclusions. Now consider for a second the ramifications of mistakes? You simply don't care do you? You think you're right, though you're completey ignorant, so you're gonna bleet bleet bleet. Well, I admire your conviction, but find it misplaced.

Or do you prefer it that I deride you and run around and frollick around some supposed imperfections ?

:rolleyes: It's exactly typical of your ignorance to consider the meat of the issue to be "supposed imperfections". Man that is just rich. "supposed imperfections"? LOL. That's too much.

Your lingo of choice is rude, demeaning, and unneccesary.

You asked for it didn't you? Perhaps in your ignorance you can't help it. You simply don't know the collosal error you're making. You have continually misrepresented my position in order to support your crap in your head. I tell you that gets on my fucking nerves. Please consider that it's frustrating to me to keep explaining it to you to the best of my limited ability and still see you continue in your folly. You have to understand that what you see as "supposed imperfections" is the fucking meat of the matter. It's really, really important. It's science. This data comes from science. The conclusions are supposed to come from science. You're coming from politics because you don't understand science. I don't blame you, but when you ARE thrown a frickin bone about science, you should try biting it to see if there's any meat. You might find that in reality, that's where it's all at. Statistical analysis of data is not something you understand. I suggest you shut your hole so as to minimize the stupidity you spew, take a couple of statistics courses, take a science course that requires the application of statistics to interpret data, talk to everyone in your class about how those methods apply to large scale phenomenon, reflect on that, reflect some more, and then come back here and talk. Perhaps then you'll have some valid criticism. As of now, you're entitled to your opinion, and I'm entitled to show you exactly why it's completely unfounded.

You say I don't understand science or math ?

Apparently. Maybe you do and you're just feigning your ignorance? Hell I don't know for sure, but I do know that what you've displayed is a bunch of tripe.

As if any one scientist has the authority to claim that without a doubt, that something exists and expect people to believe them based on some sort of long list of credentials?

That doesn't make any sense at all based on the sentence preceding it. What the shit are you talking about? You trying to get philosophical on me? LOL. This isn't philosophy. We're talking science. Science is a process where (valid) data is gathered and tested via statistics. A hypothesis such as "is this greater than that" can be tested to a level of confidence. There are a whole bunch of potential weaknesses that have to be painstakingly considered in the process. The model, the validity of the data, blah blah blah. Lots of shit. Given that there exists no definitive model of climate, any conclusions based on interpretation via whatever hypothetical model are by nature hypothetical. It's easy to lose sight of all that as scientists ... oh nevermind. It's not like you care to hear anything contradictory to what you think you know anyway, so piss off.

Very unscientific if you ask me, and this particularly reflects badly on yourself. I am sure many readers will agree with that.

LOL. You see that's the whole point here, YOU COULDN'T DETERMINE SCIENCE FROM SUPERSTITION IF IT WERE CRAMMED UP YOUR NOSE. Hmm, on that basis I might not be able to either, but if we just talk about it I'm fairly well qualified. You aren't. This isn't about my degree, or your lack of one (if you lack one). It's about what's in your head, and whether or not you can have an intelligent, relevant conversation on a topic. I can barely manage on global warming, but I know enough about the scientific process to at least get started. You're not even in the right ballpark. You're talking about popularity? Ack man. Get a clue.

Scientists are not neccesarily bright. It appears your feeling towards scientists suggests this.

What? Bright has nothing to do with it. What it your stupid ass that keeps touting "but scientists say! blah blah". FOCUS. Every objection I've made (for the most part) has been about the process and [/i]how you interpret and verify data[/i].

And then you put words in my mouth, by claiming that I can't actually judge the statement for myself.

Claiming you can't judge the statement is not putting words in your mouth. It's making a judgment about your capacity for decision making based on the example you've set.

Well hey, I'm a respectful guy,

When? Maybe elsewhere you are, but here you have not been. You've been basically a "global warming nazi". To me your constant misrepresentation of my position, along with your ignorant badgering is entirely disrespectful.

I have a lot of respect for people in general.

Empty claims are of little weight to me. You may well, but I have seen little evidence of it.

Please, don't be so assumptous about people, it's not doing you any good.

You don't understand most of what I say, and then ask for what... mercy? I have no idea what the hell you want here. You want to insult me, assume the worst about me, and then ask me not to make assumptions about you? Looks to me that any assumption I've made about you here has been followed by you providing evidence as to the validity of the assumption. That is the opposite of "not doing you any good" in the sense that apparently it IS doing me some good because my analysis is demonstrated as accurate.

I believe that sending out good energy to people will fill you up with positive energy.

So you "send out bad energy" to people who try to educate you for what reason?

I haven't said anything about conspiracies here, although this topic might indicate one, which is why I proposed that if we want to discuss this seriously then we should discuss it in the appropriate section.

That you have not said the word "conspiracy" doesn't mean you haven't been talking about them. What about that business that kicked this whole exchange off? You were talking about how much influence that guy had, hell he was able to manipulate over 15,000 phd's to sign his petition right? How is that not conspiracy?

Honestly pal you're simply unqualified at this time to have a rational conversation on the issues. You don't get it because you need to be educated. I'm just a helper, so I try to educate, but you don't know me and shouldn't trust some schmoe from a forum. Go take a few classes, talk to honest intellectuals whom you can trust, and ask them about the questions that have been raised. Send letters to some of the scientists you think are right and ask them about those questions... do SOMETHING to get yourself better armed about this if you want to discuss it rationally, otherwise you're gonna keep bleeting, and I doubt you really want that.

Fuck this I'm done wasting my time here.
 
^^^ pretty offensive post.
How much hatred and abuse is there in the above post!!.... I'm being ridiculed, made out to look like I have no clue whatsoever,been sworn at... Somebody please tell me, why has this guy got such contempt for somebody discussing the issues? Did I get my just rewards for making discussion on a serious topic as such ? I've asked how much proof is required to get at least some respectable attention on this topic, but such questions get ignored and it seems some arguers wish to derail my points of view on the basis that I won't be able to understand the physics and pieces of the greater puzzle.
The user has been reported to authorities for foul mouthing me.

If people where looking for answers, this thread is the last place they'd be looking Wesmorris, and to be honest I do take an interest in what you say and when I've got more time, maybe we can go into further details on analysing DATA...
Look I'm glad you've got a whole lot of anger out of your system..

I don't care about this argument to the death, so to speak, to be honest, I thought I'd learn something new from somebody here but so far, nobody has convinced me otherwise of my current beliefs... (fed by other scientists who I feel I can respect a lot more than somebody that talks to me like the above post!)
 
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well, maybe my frustration with my inabilty to educate you coupled with your persistance to what I know is incorrect and irrelevant led to extreme annoyance with your post. i'm trying learn to recognize when I do that and avoid it, but i didn't this time.

you're not innocent either, but two wrongs don't make a right. my apologies.
 
The problem is that you can't prove whether or not it is or isn't happening. That's it, game over. It's because of the stuff I said, though I was rude when I said it.

In a nutshell as Stokes Penwalt put so clearly:

"correlation is not equal to causality".

What it does is raise cause for investigation.

That's because more than one thing can cause the same or similar result.

In a system as complicated and unpredictable as global climate in the long term, it's damned difficult to isolate the cause of a particular effect.

That's why for now, there's simply no good answer. Within 10 or 20 years though, I'd imagine there will be a pretty reasonable consensus. That's about the best we can hope for IMO.

I don't agree with extending efforts to curb global warming beyond that which economics can support. The main reason is that the economy is maybe as complicated, maybe even more complicated than global climate. Maybe it's analagous even. Regardless, to jack with one to fix the other may have devastating unknown impacts. Hence my reservation, as I desire more than anything my local prosperity (family, community, etc.), followed closely by global prosperity.

You don't get to eat chicken sandwiches unless someone kills a chicken.
 
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The problem is that you can't prove whether or not it is or isn't happening. That's it, game over. It's because of the stuff I said, though I was rude when I said it.

Okay, please read this news report.

Please explain if this appears to be alarmist dogma to you, and whether or not you believe we should have concerns in such matters.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,10926270^30417,00.html

"Antarctic glaciers changes 'a wake-up call'
Leigh Dayton, science writer
September 30, 2004
WHETHER small and coastal or enormous and inland, Antarctica's glaciers are racing towards the sea, faster and faster.

"We're not running for the hills...but (the findings) are a wake-up call for the scientific community to get serious about it all," said glaciologist Richard Alley of Pennsylvania State University.

The findings were made by three independent teams using aircraft and satellite surveys to track changes in the glaciers and the ice sheets that envelop the frozen continent.

A US and Chilean team, headed by Robert Thomas of the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center in Virginia, reports in Science that glaciers flowing into the Amundsen Sea are thinning twice as fast near the coast as they did in the 1990s.

They add that the glaciers are dumping 250 cubic kilometres of ice into the ocean each year, nearly 60 per cent more ice into the sea than they recoup from snow fall.









Dr Thomas noted that some of Antarctica's largest glaciers, located inland "where it seldom melts on the surface", are also affected.

Dr Thomas said findings reported earlier this week "nicely complement our findings".

In that work, teams with NASA and US National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC) in Colorado reported in the journal Geophysical Research Letters that glaciers have been flowing seaward up to eight times faster than they did two years ago.

That's when the Larsen B ice shelf in the Antarctic Peninsula broke-up, also causing the height of nearby glaciers to drop by up to 38m in just six months.

Taken together, this week's findings are a "bell weather" for the planet's climate system, noted Michael Molitor, an Earth systems expert and the scientific adviser to the climate change film The Day After Tomorrow.

"They suggest that wholesale changes are taking place in Antarctica and we ought to sit up and take notice," said Dr Molitor.
 
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A simple solution for the issue of global warming, if, per say, it where found to be true.

Raise the price of fuel, raise the taxes in it slowly but surely and explain to the public why you are doing so, encourage people to use fuel saving / economical cars. People will not have the choice eventually and will be a whole lot more economically minded. Understanding that what we are doing is saving for the future is important. That will promote movement, get people to use more efficient fuels and make it more affordable. Encourage people to use solar panels, wind power, wave power etc. through incentives applied by government, eg. discounts and even payments for extra electricity gathered. Bring down the price of this equipment by funding massive projects..

Life goes on as usual, if they don't make the change happen so fast. Unfortunately, the powers that be don't have vested interests in other technologies, as they are happy to sit down from thinking logically like old goats and go hang out in Hawaii.
 
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Wesmorris
Some people attempt to write politely and aesthetically correct so that words aren't "l33t", it doesn't mean that they necessarily are looking down their nose at you just attempting to give this forum a little more ettiquette.

I mention this just incase that something you have previously misread in your discussion with Marsoup has been seen as "Arsey". Since it could be perceived that your sentiments currently are verging towards personal ground which it shouldn't do.

So I ask politely of you Wes to curb any anger and personal begrudgements (save it for the political arena.)

[Others should also take note of this, as it doesn't just apply to Wes]
 
As I noted above, I'll try. I have no intention of pursueing an angry rant. Sometimes I'm really annoyed by the apparent disrespect and indignance, so it comes out somewhat angry. I would argue though, that the points I made are relevant, just not polite. I'll endeavor to be more polite and expect to be moderated if I fail in that capacity.
 
marsoups:

the point I've been trying to make is that identifying the cause of global warming is incredibly complicated. i agree that it's something to be concerned about - but really think it's important to be very very confident about the cause before trying to take measures to correct it.

your article isn't necessarily alarmist dogma at all. it only is, IMO, if you irrationally assign a cause to the phenomenon it describes.

further: I agree that strives towards sustainability are necessary, but take consideration that it should be done at a pace that the global economy can absorb without significant risk to its collapse.
 
“My wife is slowly dieing, they say it's from my smoking, But there is not enough proof of that, I would rather let her die then to quite smoking and see if she gets better."
 
WellCookedFetus said:
“My wife is slowly dieing, they say it's from my smoking, But there is not enough proof of that, I would rather let her die then to quite smoking and see if she gets better."

It's a rational suspicion based on 50 years of medical science that it is probably smoking. There are broadly accepted models of how nicotine/tar are cancer causing agents, lead to heart disease, etc. More convincing to me is that the entire medical community seems to agree on the issue.

Would you say the same about global warming?

If so, you're entitled to your opinion. I disagree.

If not, then it wouldn't be rational to conclude that humanity is the cause of global warming, because the model isn't yet widely accepted (by those with the knowledge to courtique it), the data is still questionable (though worth investigation) and basically, though perhaps evidence is gathering, there is not enough to draw a wholly convincing conclusion.
 
I simple used smoking as a variable, not critical to the reasoning, here try to imagine the metaphor without any variable you would fall pray to reasoning with:

"My wife is slowly dieing, they say ______ that I'm doing is the cause, it makes sense that ______ is the cause, and stop doing ______ would be hard but would better me in the end, but there is no proof that ______ is the cause, thus I will not stop doing ______ even if my wife dies"
 
Your forgot variable sentence needs to be modified:

"My wife may be slowly dieing or may be having a bad month, they say ______ that I'm doing is the cause, it makes sense that ______ could have an effect, and stop doing ______ would be hard but may be better me in the end, but there is no proof that ______ is the cause or that my wife is sick."

There are two parts of teh picture missing:
1) Is the global warming due to natural trends
2) Is enough of the trend due to humans that any change has an effect.
 
wesmorris said:
marsoups:

the point I've been trying to make is that identifying the cause of global warming is incredibly complicated. i agree that it's something to be concerned about - but really think it's important to be very very confident about the cause before trying to take measures to correct it.

If I had my say, I would replace the words "very very" with "relatively"before I start looking into ways and means of achieving a goal. I'm a paranoid sort of guy I guess... I don't like to see things start to get out of control when it could be curtailed when it's a lot easier to do so given a greater time margin with which to work on it with.
At the moment, I have seen very little on the agenda to handle this issue from the Bush administration. Correct me if I'm wrong , as I'd love to see some small initiatives being made....
your article isn't necessarily alarmist dogma at all. it only is, IMO, if you irrationally assign a cause to the phenomenon it describes.

How about we try to rationalise it. How can it be that these people living on the fringes of the ice belt could be telling us that there has been an *acceleration* in ice melting over the last 10 years. Perhaps there's some volcanic action we should be looking into, or some other phenomena. We could with reasonably good judgement say that we can seriously doubt that this ice is just going to grow back, but if we look at which way the momentum is in, it would imply that more ice is due to melt.
further: I agree that strives towards sustainability are necessary, but take consideration that it should be done at a pace that the global economy can absorb without significant risk to its collapse.

Indeed! I think we would get a lot of international support if we where to take action, in fact I think slight changes in perspectives could be benificial to the economy, as the U.S. would have the world supporting it for its actions, rather than the current position where half the world has much anti-U.S. sentiment.
 
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Persol,

It is agreed the earth is warming; a bad "month" in earth terms would be thousand of years, equivalent to forever for us mortals. It also agreed the weather change would be bad, in at least adapting to it, maybe it would free up some space to live on Greenland and Antarctica.

I hardly see how changing to renewable energies would be less beneficial, its not like we have a choice: by the end of this centaury exponential demand will have exceeded the worlds supply and production of most fossil fuels!
 
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