To 2inqusitive: Thanks for the good search. I too was not able to open the link to Crutzen's paper.
First two minor points (not to forget): It appears that rapeseed is used for bio-diesel, not alcohol, production and that is why I had never heard of it as alcohol crop.- I follow this field with several sources automately sending me information as I own shares in 2nd or 3d largest alcohol/sugar company in Brazil. (Bought them too soon, as current glut of sugar has depressed stock value.)
I tell this as wish all to know I do have a financial interest in seeing Brazil export alcohol, but WHERE it is sold is not important. Looks like Japan will be taking all Brazil can produce as soon as the tankers for transporting it are finished. - Even China lost out on this cheap energy. (USA, under GWB, never stood a chance.) I wanted alcohol to go to US as my grandchildren live there and I pay taxes there, which are higher than they need because GWB is "pushing corn based alcohol." Also I do not like to see the dollar dropping in value as my social security paymnets buy less and there is no way I can protect them by buying ADRs etc. The "sovern funds" of the oil exporters could destroythe dollar over night and by ceasing to buy US Treasury bonds are doing that more slowly to get assets out of dollars with least possible loss, but same final effect - a US in deep depression with inflation caused by "printing press money" paying off maturing Treasury bonds tha can not be "rolled.")
The alcohol from corn plan is much to clever to have been GWB's idea. It will give the apearance of doing something to reduce the US dependance on oil, while actually slightly increasing it. Never does GWB state that alcohol from corn will reduce oil consumption. (He has been well coached.) He always states that the goal is to replace 20% of US gasoline with alcohol. Joe American misunderstands this as reduce oil consumption by 20%. Joe will pay more in taxes for the subsidies, more for his food, more to drive his car (on either alcohol or gasoline) than needed, and part of the dollars Joe sends to the mid East will buy the weapons tha kill Joe's son (instead buying alcohol from Brazil, which would be buying the products Joe's son is safely making where he works). Also the cane alcohol from tropical lands, would be reducing man's contribution to global warming, instead of increasing it above what simply continuing to use gasloine would produce!
It is for these reasons, I called alcohol from corn an "insane program." If you stop to think, I think you will agree. It is insane, self-interest, of the oil industry, that does not care about the damage (to entire world and Joe) being done because correcting it would reduce their profit rate. Also, great damage is being done to Joe's future descendents dozens of generations hence. - Oil is much to valuable as a chemical feed stock to burn for heat! What is going on now is not only insane, but probably the greatest crime against humanity in all of history!
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On corn and wheat etc.:
I am not sure (about 95% so) but think corn is significantly below the all time peak price but wheat is at or near it. It is true that in last month corn did recover 15% and wheat climbed to new high by 22%. It may well be true that factors other than switching acrerage from wheat to corn is only a minor part of the difference and certainly is true that the dropping value of the dollar makes both cost more.
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On Crutzen's N2O study:
In prior CO2 only studies, which did consider the "full production cycle" I.e. the fossil fuel burned to make the fertalizer, plow the field, deliver alcohol to "gas" stations, etc. there are a lot of estimates, so no precise conclusions. Oil industry paid for studies of alcohol from corn show slight reduction in net CO2 released and dis-interested university studies show a larger increase, but for simplicity, I will assume corn alcohol is "CO2 neutral." All studies show cane alcohol reduces CO2 release by factor between 4 and 8 fold, so I will assume by 6.
Crutzen's study is NOT of the "full production cycle." It concerns ONLY two effects of growing the source crop. The benefical one is CO2 is being removed from the air. The damaging one is that N2O is being released.
It concludes that "bad/good ratio" for corn is between 1.0 and 1.7, so I will assume corn alcohol is 1.35 worse than using gasoline as your car's fuel, from a greenhouse gas POV. Likewise he concludes alcohol from sugar cane is 0.5 to 0.9 times worse, so I will assume 0.7 times worse. (Of course any number less than unity is an improvement.) Thus 1000 liters of alcohol is same "Growing Release," GR, as burning 1350L of gasoline in the corn case and 700L in the cane case.
Now let me try to extened his results to the "full production cycle" with these assumptions:
To make it easy I will fill my car's 600 litter tank with alcohol. That, under the old CO2 only studies, has same CO2 release as 600 liter of gasoline (if from corn) and same CO2 effect as 100 liters of gasoline burned (if from cane).
Clearly all of the "benefit" in both cases comes from the growing crop removing CO2 from the air. Thus, with these assumptions making 600L of alcohol has net removal for the air is the carbon in 500L of gasoline (if from cane) and 0L (if from corn).
Now with the effect of N2O considered (and assuming the production of fertalizer dose not produce any and FALSELY assuming that the delivery trucks taking alcohol to the distribution stations also do not produce any, when in fact all high compression IC engines produce a lot of N2O) where corn is 1.35 times worse than gas and cane is 0.7 times worse, the 600L of gasoline (corn's equivalent) becomes 1.35x600 = 810 liters of gasoline and the 100L (cane's equivalent) becomes 70L of gasoline.
My assumptions may be wrong, but is seems to indicate that sugar cane is a net benefit (compared to using gasoline) of 600/70 = 8.6 times while from corn alcohol is a net damage of 810/600 = 1.35 times worse than gasoline. (This is obviously the same as Crutzen's N2O only GR results becuase I assum that the old studies CO2 studies were neutral in the release of CO2.)
I am sure that this logic is flawed or at least too simple. Perhaps you or some one will correct it? To do so. I think it is necessary to make one more assumption about the old CO2 only, total-cycle, studies related to what fraction, f, of the CO2 release comes out of the tail pipe of the car and then (1-f) of the CO2 is associated with fertilizer production, field plowing etc. This information must be part of the old CO2 only total-cycle studies, but may be hard to get that detail.
BTW, after reading your reference, it appears my guess about "root bacteria" working on the higher concentrations of fixed nitrogen in the soil used with corn may indeeed be the reason corn is so bad. - I.e. corn's gross inferiority to cane may not be due directly to any corn/cane difference. I already knew that both corn and cane are among the few plants that run the same, more complex, (four step), but more efficient, process in their photosynthesis, so suspected the difference might not be in the plants at all from the start.
First two minor points (not to forget): It appears that rapeseed is used for bio-diesel, not alcohol, production and that is why I had never heard of it as alcohol crop.- I follow this field with several sources automately sending me information as I own shares in 2nd or 3d largest alcohol/sugar company in Brazil. (Bought them too soon, as current glut of sugar has depressed stock value.)
I tell this as wish all to know I do have a financial interest in seeing Brazil export alcohol, but WHERE it is sold is not important. Looks like Japan will be taking all Brazil can produce as soon as the tankers for transporting it are finished. - Even China lost out on this cheap energy. (USA, under GWB, never stood a chance.) I wanted alcohol to go to US as my grandchildren live there and I pay taxes there, which are higher than they need because GWB is "pushing corn based alcohol." Also I do not like to see the dollar dropping in value as my social security paymnets buy less and there is no way I can protect them by buying ADRs etc. The "sovern funds" of the oil exporters could destroythe dollar over night and by ceasing to buy US Treasury bonds are doing that more slowly to get assets out of dollars with least possible loss, but same final effect - a US in deep depression with inflation caused by "printing press money" paying off maturing Treasury bonds tha can not be "rolled.")
Certainly congress plays a role, and probably GWB is not the true source of it, only manupliated by some with even more financial interest in keeping the world "hooked on oil." I think he is also not the true source of the Iraq war. Probably both stem from the "neocons" that guide him as does his "anti-Koyota treaty" stand.I think the 'alcohol from corn program' was mostly due to the US congress, not from oilman Bush.
The alcohol from corn plan is much to clever to have been GWB's idea. It will give the apearance of doing something to reduce the US dependance on oil, while actually slightly increasing it. Never does GWB state that alcohol from corn will reduce oil consumption. (He has been well coached.) He always states that the goal is to replace 20% of US gasoline with alcohol. Joe American misunderstands this as reduce oil consumption by 20%. Joe will pay more in taxes for the subsidies, more for his food, more to drive his car (on either alcohol or gasoline) than needed, and part of the dollars Joe sends to the mid East will buy the weapons tha kill Joe's son (instead buying alcohol from Brazil, which would be buying the products Joe's son is safely making where he works). Also the cane alcohol from tropical lands, would be reducing man's contribution to global warming, instead of increasing it above what simply continuing to use gasloine would produce!
It is for these reasons, I called alcohol from corn an "insane program." If you stop to think, I think you will agree. It is insane, self-interest, of the oil industry, that does not care about the damage (to entire world and Joe) being done because correcting it would reduce their profit rate. Also, great damage is being done to Joe's future descendents dozens of generations hence. - Oil is much to valuable as a chemical feed stock to burn for heat! What is going on now is not only insane, but probably the greatest crime against humanity in all of history!
-------
On corn and wheat etc.:
I am not sure (about 95% so) but think corn is significantly below the all time peak price but wheat is at or near it. It is true that in last month corn did recover 15% and wheat climbed to new high by 22%. It may well be true that factors other than switching acrerage from wheat to corn is only a minor part of the difference and certainly is true that the dropping value of the dollar makes both cost more.
--------
On Crutzen's N2O study:
In prior CO2 only studies, which did consider the "full production cycle" I.e. the fossil fuel burned to make the fertalizer, plow the field, deliver alcohol to "gas" stations, etc. there are a lot of estimates, so no precise conclusions. Oil industry paid for studies of alcohol from corn show slight reduction in net CO2 released and dis-interested university studies show a larger increase, but for simplicity, I will assume corn alcohol is "CO2 neutral." All studies show cane alcohol reduces CO2 release by factor between 4 and 8 fold, so I will assume by 6.
Crutzen's study is NOT of the "full production cycle." It concerns ONLY two effects of growing the source crop. The benefical one is CO2 is being removed from the air. The damaging one is that N2O is being released.
It concludes that "bad/good ratio" for corn is between 1.0 and 1.7, so I will assume corn alcohol is 1.35 worse than using gasoline as your car's fuel, from a greenhouse gas POV. Likewise he concludes alcohol from sugar cane is 0.5 to 0.9 times worse, so I will assume 0.7 times worse. (Of course any number less than unity is an improvement.) Thus 1000 liters of alcohol is same "Growing Release," GR, as burning 1350L of gasoline in the corn case and 700L in the cane case.
Now let me try to extened his results to the "full production cycle" with these assumptions:
To make it easy I will fill my car's 600 litter tank with alcohol. That, under the old CO2 only studies, has same CO2 release as 600 liter of gasoline (if from corn) and same CO2 effect as 100 liters of gasoline burned (if from cane).
Clearly all of the "benefit" in both cases comes from the growing crop removing CO2 from the air. Thus, with these assumptions making 600L of alcohol has net removal for the air is the carbon in 500L of gasoline (if from cane) and 0L (if from corn).
Now with the effect of N2O considered (and assuming the production of fertalizer dose not produce any and FALSELY assuming that the delivery trucks taking alcohol to the distribution stations also do not produce any, when in fact all high compression IC engines produce a lot of N2O) where corn is 1.35 times worse than gas and cane is 0.7 times worse, the 600L of gasoline (corn's equivalent) becomes 1.35x600 = 810 liters of gasoline and the 100L (cane's equivalent) becomes 70L of gasoline.
My assumptions may be wrong, but is seems to indicate that sugar cane is a net benefit (compared to using gasoline) of 600/70 = 8.6 times while from corn alcohol is a net damage of 810/600 = 1.35 times worse than gasoline. (This is obviously the same as Crutzen's N2O only GR results becuase I assum that the old studies CO2 studies were neutral in the release of CO2.)
I am sure that this logic is flawed or at least too simple. Perhaps you or some one will correct it? To do so. I think it is necessary to make one more assumption about the old CO2 only, total-cycle, studies related to what fraction, f, of the CO2 release comes out of the tail pipe of the car and then (1-f) of the CO2 is associated with fertilizer production, field plowing etc. This information must be part of the old CO2 only total-cycle studies, but may be hard to get that detail.
BTW, after reading your reference, it appears my guess about "root bacteria" working on the higher concentrations of fixed nitrogen in the soil used with corn may indeeed be the reason corn is so bad. - I.e. corn's gross inferiority to cane may not be due directly to any corn/cane difference. I already knew that both corn and cane are among the few plants that run the same, more complex, (four step), but more efficient, process in their photosynthesis, so suspected the difference might not be in the plants at all from the start.
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