A Note: Global Warming Threads

Why adoucette's opinion of methanotrophs "saving" us from ocean warming by consuming gigatonnes of methane should be treated with the scepticism it deserves:

"
Despite numerous recent studies of methane hydrates, modern fluxes of methane from the deep sea into surface waters and ultimately the atmosphere are very poorly constrained. Estimates of methane flux have been aided, to some degree, by recent advances in our understanding of marine microbiological influences on the global methane cycle. Aspects of the marine methane cycle remain largely unconstrained owing to limitations in methods and technologies that enable accurate assessment of methane concentration and flux, as well as rates of biological methanogenesis or methanotrophy.

Pressure and temperature have a pronounced effect on methane solubility. Therefore, upon retrieval of methane-saturated waters or hydrate-rich sediments from the deep ocean, methane rapidly outgasses to the atmosphere. Thus it has been challenging to constrain flux and microbial activity in situ, under environmentally relevant conditions.

Because previous data have shown that methane oxidation, both aerobic and anaerobic, are the largest methane sinks in marine environments (Reeburgh, 2007), understanding what controls methane oxidation, including concentration and abiotic flux, is paramount to understanding global methane dynamics. To better constrain the methane flux in chemically reducing environments, and ultimately to quantify the influence of biotic and abiotic processes on the methane cycle, we employed a newly developed in situ mass spectrometer (ISMS) to conduct direct measurements of methane concentration which, in concert with shipboard microbiological measurements,were used to generate more robust estimates of diffusive flux and net methane oxidation rates in a newly discovered brine pool in the Gulf of Mexico."

--by some research team or other whose identity isn't important just now.

I think it's also relevant that "the global contribution of methane from the Arctic is 2%", may be true now, but there isn't any reason to assume--as adoucette seems quite willing to do--that it will be 2% ten years from now, or twenty.

I think adoucette is being selective and has tried several times to reassure that "it isn't that much of a problem". But he simply can't know this is true, he can't and even the climate scientists can't know it is.

That he labeled the estimated 50 gigatonnes of methane in permafrost that "could be released at any time" as a scare story, is perfectly indicative of a blinkered point of view. I would be a lot less concerned about adoucette's opinion than about what scientists are saying (in their usually conservative fashion).
 
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And, seemingly in support of Arthur's argument (it's kind of implicit) we have the CIRES at University of Colorado at Boulder:
http://www.colorado.edu/news/r/41e56cf851aed9b1d38ec3dddd7f60b8.html
While other studies have shown carbon has begun to leak out of permafrost in Alaska and Siberia, the study by Schaefer and his colleagues is the first to make actual estimates of future carbon release from permafrost.
Especially if you watch the video, what they seem to be saying (to me at least) is that:
Yes, Methane release has begun, while the levels being released now may not be problematic, models based on IPCC data suggest that it may become problematic in the next 100 years or so.
 
adoucette said:
So once again you have NOTHING specific to support your assertions.
You still refuse to specify what assertions I haven't supported - with your admission of familiarity with the names, any I actually made in this thread have been backed up now several times over, including by you.

But your cowardice is noted: you will never state your own positions in these matters. I think the reason is that they look silly when stated plainly. Like Murdoch and Donahue and the the other sources of your line of bs, you prefer to hide behind irrelevant deflections and blather about generalities, issuing carefully worded "position papers" and avoiding the sharp edge of simple fact or personal responsibility.

Murdoch of course makes a ton of money thereby, Donahue and Tillerson and Koch are well compensated, but what's in it for the likes of you?
trippy said:
Yes, Methane release has begun, while the levels being released now may not be problematic, models based on IPCC data suggest that it may become problematic in the next 100 years or so.
The other issue is the anticipated speed of onset, if the problem does manifest: it sounds reassuring when presented as 100 years of growing trouble with slowly thawing permafrost, but the actual feared possibility is a sudden clathrate blowout - at any time in the next hundred years, maybe.
 
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The other issue is the anticipated speed of onset, if the problem does manifest: it sounds reassuring when presented as 100 years of growing trouble, but the actual feared possibility is a sudden blowup happening at some time in the next hundred years - at any time in the next hundred years, maybe.

Yes, and i've linked to peer reviewed papers discussing that in previous posts, which is more than I can say for you and arfa.
 
Right.
Well if adoucette and Trippy have the situation under control, I guess the rest of us should keep quiet, or go home. If only I'd known the problem could be resolved by linking to peer-reviewed papers!

So, the problem isn't "that much of a problem" after all--we can naively assume that there is at least 100 years in the pipeline.


/in case you didn't know, I was being sarcastic.
 
Right.
Well if adoucette and Trippy have the situation under control, I guess the rest of us should keep quiet, or go home. If only I'd known the problem could be resolved by linking to peer-reviewed papers!

So, the problem isn't "that much of a problem" after all--we can naively assume that there is at least 100 years in the pipeline.


/in case you didn't know, I was being sarcastic.

That's not what I said, nor was it implied by what I said.

If you're going to get incolved in a grown up argument, at least try and behave like a grown up.
 
Trippy said:
Yes, and i've linked to peer reviewed papers discussing that in previous posts, which is more than I can say for you and arfa.

Can you explain what you meant, in a grown up way, with this?

I'm fairly sure I don't need to read a peer reviewed article to understand that 50 gigatonnes of methane is a lot more than 2% of global emissions. And, there's a difference between using scientific articles to promote the idea that there isn't that much of a problem, that it's all just a lot of scary stories, and questioning the science.

I'm quite happy trying to tear adoucette's arguments apart without referring to any papers. But, I'm not being entirely honest with that, because I have posted excerpts from journals.
 
Can you explain what you meant, in a grown up way, with this?
I thought it was fairly self explanatory really.

I'm fairly sure I don't need to read a peer reviewed article to understand that 50 gigatonnes of methane is a lot more than 2% of global emissions. And, there's a difference between using scientific articles to promote the idea that there isn't that much of a problem, that it's all just a lot of scary stories, and questioning the science.
None of which is of any relevance to me, because it has nothing to do with anything that i've actually said.
 
Trippy said:
I thought it was fairly self explanatory really.
Ok. Well, I can't see that it has any relevance to anything I do know about the methane problem.

None of which is of any relevance to me, because it has nothing to do with anything that i've actually said.
So, we're agreed.
 
Ok. Well, I can't see that it has any relevance to anything I do know about the methane problem.
Stop posting tabloid articles and editorials, and post some actual research.

I'm fairly sure I've posted more genuine research on this matter in one post than I can recall having seen you post in the entirety of this discussion.

So, we're agreed.
That depends on what we're agreeing on - that you're grossly misrepresenting my posts? Sure.
 
Trippy said:
Stop posting tabloid articles and editorials, and post some actual research.
You're being dismissive. What about post #601, are you sure it isn't actual research (I could have just made it up, seeing how there is no actual reference)?

And why the stipulation that I "post some actual research"? I've read enough research (I know how to read) to have formed an opinion, and it disagrees fundamentally with adoucette's opinion.

Is it ok to just disagree with him about his "rosy future scenario", and point out that he's making naive conclusions. albeit in a somewhat immature fashion (when in Rome, and all that)?
 
You're being dismissive. What about post #601, are you sure it isn't actual research (I could have just made it up, seeing how there is no actual reference)?
What about it?

And why the stipulation that I "post some actual research"? I've read enough research (I know how to read) to have formed an opinion, and it disagrees fundamentally with adoucette's opinion.
You understand how scientific debate works, right?

Adoucette, at least, has been able to back his opinions up with a range of publications, including the IPCC, and seeming CIRES supports at least some of what he has to say (I have my own reservations about the CIRES paper, but they're between me and the doorpost for now).

Is it ok to just disagree with him about his "rosy future scenario", and point out that he's making naive conclusions. albeit in a somewhat immature fashion (when in Rome, and all that)?
That depends, are you interested in having an honest debate and a genuine discussion - something I would encourage? Or are you only interested in flinging poo - so to speak.

The simple fact of the matter is that because you refuse to provide links or any other form of verifiable reference, we're force to accept only your word, and your interpretation of the research that you claim to have done.

Can you see how that might be problematic for those of us that prefer a facts based discussion?
 
Trippy said:
Adoucette, at least, has been able to back his opinions up with a range of publications, including the IPCC, and seeming CIRES supports at least some of what he has to say

Not very much of what he's had to say, though. How did you come to the conclusion that I'm "refusing" to provide links or any other form of verifiable reference? What research have I claimed to have done? All I've claimed is that I can read.

I'm disagreeing with adoucette's opinions. Opinions are not facts.
You've disagreed with him several times in this thread too.

adoucette gives the impression he wants a genuine discussion, an "honest" debate. But I'm of the opinion that he doesn't, what he wants is to present his OPINION, which may well be fact-based, but clearly his OPINION of several aspects of the debate is wrong.

Examples:
adoucette on Hansen:
adoucette said:
Really?

You can't tell what's WRONG with that graph?

Nothing about the CHERRY PICKED initial period from 1950-1980?

I mean why would a climate scientist do that?

. . . followed by a back and forth discussion between you and him.
Then followed by a back and forth about what "cherry picking" data means.
Then this:
First off, if ALL the ice on the planet melted the oceans wouldn't rise much over 60 meters, BUT, that is physically impossible in less than about 10,000 years even at +20C.
Where did adoucette get this "fact based" argument from?
And this:
there is no evidence of any increasing release of CH4 globally. Indeed, the very slow increase in the levels of CH4 in the atmosphere have essentially stopped around 1990.
More "facts"
The fact that CH4 is not increasing in the atmosphere since the 90s suggests strongly that the atmosphere is in equilibrium with CH4 and your fears are not warrented.
I'd say, that while hydroxyl is probably the main "scubber" of methane, clearly the globe has OTHER methods for fairly rapidly dealing with massive quantities of Methane as well.
Oops, looks like there's a missing fact: what are these other methods, and how well characterised are they by actual research?

Then this clanger, after yet another back and forth about permafrost melting:
And what KNOWN mechanism could cause the release of 50 BILLION TONS of Methane in a year?

I ask this because Methane is quite valuable nowadays and I'd think if there were sufficent stores of Methane in that quantitity that could be released that easily then we would be exploiting them commercially.
More "facts" from adoucette:
Not at all, since the warming in the Arctic has been going on for over 30 years and YET the methane levels in the globe slowed down to flat over that time frame.

If a major NEW source of methane was happening because of permafrost melting then the levels wouldn't have stopped rising.
Clearly the amounts of methane being released in the polar regions is NOT unusual.
Except there is no methane problem in the Arctic.
Followed by an opinion from adoucette that since bacteria consume 80% of the methane produced (from where?) in the oceans, there won't be a problem in the Arctic (although there already is a problem in the Arctic--the bacteria aren't consuming enough methane to stop it reaching the surface).
 
Not very much of what he's had to say, though. How did you come to the conclusion that I'm "refusing" to provide links or any other form of verifiable reference? What research have I claimed to have done? All I've claimed is that I can read.

I'm disagreeing with adoucette's opinions. Opinions are not facts.
You've disagreed with him several times in this thread too.

adoucette gives the impression he wants a genuine discussion, an "honest" debate. But I'm of the opinion that he doesn't, what he wants is to present his OPINION, which may well be fact-based, but clearly his OPINION of several aspects of the debate is wrong.

Examples:
adoucette on Hansen:


. . . followed by a back and forth discussion between you and him.
Then followed by a back and forth about what "cherry picking" data means.
Then this:
Where did adoucette get this "fact based" argument from?
And this:

More "facts"

Oops, looks like there's a missing fact: what are these other methods, and how well characterised are they by actual research?

Then this clanger, after yet another back and forth about permafrost melting:

More "facts" from adoucette:


Followed by an opinion from adoucette that since bacteria consume 80% of the methane produced (from where?) in the oceans, there won't be a problem in the Arctic (although there already is a problem in the Arctic--the bacteria aren't consuming enough methane to stop it reaching the surface).

So what you're really saying is that the best that you can do is to stoop to his level?

Nice.

I'm not going to touch this post beyond that, because it is, in it's entirety an emotive rant based on false premises.
 
Trippy said:
I'm not going to touch this post beyond that, because it is, in it's entirety an emotive rant based on false premises.
Speaking of which:
How did you come to the conclusion that I'm "refusing" to provide links or any other form of verifiable reference? What research have I claimed to have done?

What lead you to the conclusion that my last post was "emotive"?

No, forget it, I'm obviously wasting my time here. You have no intention of explaining yourself, and even more obviously, I can't and shouldn't try to explain myself to you. Please don''t ask me anything else, because I'll just follow your lead and ignore it.
 
So what you're really saying is that the best that you can do is to stoop to his level?

Stoop to his level????
Thanks Trippy, but the "facts" in my posts were all supported by mainstream references.

adoucette said:
First off, if ALL the ice on the planet melted the oceans wouldn't rise much over 60 meters, BUT, that is physically impossible in less than about 10,000 years even at +20C. ”

Source IPCC TAR WG1

East Antarctic ice sheet
Thresholds for disintegration of the East Antarctic ice sheet by surface melting involve warmings above 20°C, a situation that has not occurred for at least the last 15 million years (Barker et al., 1999), and which is far more than thought possible under any scenario of climatic change currently under consideration. In that case, the ice sheet would decay over a period of at least 10,000 years
(bolding mine)

http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/?src=/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/

And the AR4 shows that if ALL the ice on Antarctic melted it would raise the sea level about 60 meters and if you add ALL the ice on Greenland and it would be about 65 meters, but there is NO scenario where ALL the ice would be melted on both poles at the SAME time and in the very high glaciers, and so ~60 meters is about max sea level rise.

And this:

adoucette said:
“ there is no evidence of any increasing release of CH4 globally. Indeed, the very slow increase in the levels of CH4 in the atmosphere have essentially stopped around 1990. ”

“ The fact that CH4 is not increasing in the atmosphere since the 90s suggests strongly that the atmosphere is in equilibrium with CH4 and your fears are not warrented. ”

Source = NOAA

Direct atmospheric measurement of atmospheric methane has been possible since the late 1970s and its concentration rose from 1.52 ppmv in 1978 by around 1 percent per year to 1990, since when there has been little sustained increase. The current atmospheric concentration is approximately 1.77 ppmv, and there is no scientific consensus on why methane has not risen much since around 1990.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/gases.html

And

The recent decline in growth rates implies that emissions now approximately match removals, which are due primarily to oxidation by the hydroxyl radical (OH).
Since the TAR, new studies using two independent tracers (methyl chloroform and 14CO) suggest no significant long-term change in the global abundance of OH. Thus, the slowdown in the atmospheric CH4 growth rate since about 1993 is likely due to the atmosphere approaching an equilibrium during a period of near-constant total emissions ”
bolding mine

IPCC AR4 WG1 Technical Summary - TS.2.1.1 Changes in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, Methane and Nitrous Oxide

AND

The long-term growth rate of methane has declined steadily over the past 20 years, from about 15 ppb per year in the mid-1980s to about zero over the past six years. The reason for the decline is uncertain, but possibly involves a reduction or stabilization in methane release from the oil and gas industry, as methane is now considered a valuable resource; in the 1960s, unwanted methane was commonly either burnt (flaring) or released under high pressure (venting). A worldwide trend to minimize leaks from natural gas reticulation networks, particularly in the former Soviet Union, might also have contributed to the trend
http://www.environment.gov.au/soe/2006/publications/commentaries/atmosphere/climate-change.html

As to support for this statement:

adoucette said:
I'd say, that while hydroxyl is probably the main "scubber" of methane, clearly the globe has OTHER methods for fairly rapidly dealing with massive quantities of Methane as well.

I gave this:

Note: Research suggests that as much as 500,000 tons of gas was injected into the ocean in addition to the more than 200 million gallons of crude oil that spilled.

Methane was the most abundant hydrocarbon released during the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. Beyond relevancy to this anthropogenic event, this methane release simulates a rapid and relatively short-term natural release from hydrates into deep water. Based on methane and oxygen distributions measured at 207 stations throughout the affected region, we find that within ~120 days from the onset of release ~3.0 × 10^10 to 3.9 × 10^10 moles of oxygen were respired, primarily by methanotrophs, and left behind a residual microbial community containing methanotrophic bacteria. We suggest that a vigorous deepwater bacterial bloom respired nearly all the released methane within this time, and that by analogy, large-scale releases of methane from hydrate in the deep ocean are likely to be met by a similarly rapid methanotrophic response.
(bolding mine)

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/331/6015/312.abstract?keytype=ref&siteid=sci&ijkey=0mWSDQdfse43A


arfa brane said:
Then this clanger, after yet another back and forth about permafrost melting:

adoucette said:
And what KNOWN mechanism could cause the release of 50 BILLION TONS of Methane in a year?

I ask this because Methane is quite valuable nowadays and I'd think if there were sufficent stores of Methane in that quantitity that could be released that easily then we would be exploiting them commercially.

Except the studies on PERMAFROST melting show no potential of release of 50GT in a year.

The 50 GT came from one Russian report that you posted (which we can't read unless we want to pay for) which suggests it is THEORETICALLY possible, but not from melting of the Permafrost.

http://www.springerlink.com/content/930206u05266g641/

But the prediction of a possible 50 GT release over a 1-5 year time frame is based on the DESTRUCTION of the East Siberian Shelf, which is underwater, and NOT Permafrost.

The snippet we can read without buying it doesn’t say how this destruction occurs, but it’s from an obvious physical process such as a major undersea landslide. Interestingly it also says if this were to occur we would see ~1.3 C increase over current projections, so as large a release as that is, it’s not an end of life on earth event as some are saying.


As to these quotes of mine:

adoucette said:
“ Not at all, since the warming in the Arctic has been going on for over 30 years and YET the methane levels in the globe slowed down to flat over that time frame.

If a major NEW source of methane was happening because of permafrost melting then the levels wouldn't have stopped rising. ”

“ Clearly the amounts of methane being released in the polar regions is NOT unusual. ”

“ Except there is no methane problem in the Arctic. ”

Sources:

tropical wetlands contribute 52 to 58% of global emissions, with the remainder coming from the extra-tropics, 2% of which is from Arctic latitudes
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/327/5963/322.abstract

and

In 2008, globally averaged CH4 increased by 4.4 ± 0.6 ppb; the largest increase was in the tropics, while polar northern latitudes did not increase. ”
E. J. Dlugokencky GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 36, L18803, 5 PP., 2009


Arthur
 
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Stoop to his level????
Thanks Trippy, but the "facts" in my posts were all supported by mainstream references.

Arthur

Aww, come on, you know I didn't mean it like that - Arfa has been generally deriding your posts as lacking factual basis, and from that perspective for him to be imitating or mimicing the way he thinks you post, for any reasonable interpretation he must be 'stooping'.

(For example, this comment of his: "But I'm of the opinion that he doesn't, what he wants is to present his OPINION, which may well be fact-based, but clearly his OPINION of several aspects of the debate is wrong.")
 
Except the studies on PERMAFROST melting show no potential of release of 50GT in a year.

The 50 GT came from one Russian report that you posted (which we can't read unless we want to pay for) which suggests it is THEORETICALLY possible, but not from melting of the Permafrost.

http://www.springerlink.com/content/930206u05266g641/

But the prediction of a possible 50 GT release over a 1-5 year time frame is based on the DESTRUCTION of the East Siberian Shelf, which is underwater, and NOT Permafrost.

The snippet we can read without buying it doesn’t say how this destruction occurs, but it’s from an obvious physical process such as a major undersea landslide. Interestingly it also says if this were to occur we would see ~1.3 C increase over current projections, so as large a release as that is, it’s not an end of life on earth event as some are saying.

Arthur

This is more a pedantism than anything else - according to the papers which I read, which I still owe you links to, which this is part of, the source, or part of the source of the methane on the siberian shelf is inundated permafrost IE the terrestrial permafrost on the land extends under the sea.
 
adoucette source said:
We suggest that a vigorous deepwater bacterial bloom respired nearly all the released methane within this time, and that by analogy, large-scale releases of methane from hydrate in the deep ocean are likely to be met by a similarly rapid methanotrophic response.
As with your other links, that's mostly irrelevant, beyond some pertinent wishful thinking.

The immediate worry in the Arctic is from shallow water stuff, and frozen landscape. That's what will warm first. Appropriate bacterial ecosystems seem to be absent in those environments, and the necessary layering of temperature zones, etc, likewise not the same factor.
 
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Speaking of which:
How did you come to the conclusion that I'm "refusing" to provide links or any other form of verifiable reference? What research have I claimed to have done?
Reading = research.
Not providing links = making a conscious choice not to do so = refusing to do so.
 
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