Will the Singularity happen?

[francois]

Within a year we're going to be seeing new computers that are dramatically faster than current ones. IBM researchers mastered a new way of connecting chips called nanophotonics, which they say is going to enable exaflop super computers. We're now at petaflops, which is a one with 15 zeroes. Exaflop is 18, so we're talking about a potential thousandfold increase in computer power. This technology is already developed and IBM is licensing it to other firms. We can expect to see it being used within a year.

This seems to be happening at the same time that we're hearing about other revolutionary technologies, like memristor and graphene. Both of these technologies are already developed, and it's likely we're going to see them real soon, within a few years. Each one of these technologies by itself will be disruptive, but in two years when all of them are integrated, we're going to see computers that are far more capable than our current ones.

This shit is going to be bananas.

 

[Stryder]

Let's apply that "The Singularity" goes "Temporal" (Transcending time and space), who's to say we haven't already got a singularity right now?

We could all be in a giant emulation, a recursive emulation (A copy of a copy) that could go Ad Infinitum.
(A recursive system would allow us to stay in contact with the basis of Physics which would be applied within each and every universe, this is important as if we were to "Wake from an emulator" we would find ourselves in another universe, if the physics wasn't accurately depicted while in the emulation we would have all sorts of troubles re-adjusting)

We could be an emulation that exists on a giant starship bound for some planet centuries away from where we initially were deployed, living "fruitful" lives until we reach our destination and wake up. (Waking up could just occur on a date for all we know, any 2012er's want to get kooky with it?)

You might think the starship thing ludicrous, think again!!!

In essence our entire physical world could be metaphysical, an emulation existing within an ethereal existance (emulated on a vast super-cloud computered infrastructure) Our very intelligence itself might be as artificial as those we attempt to create through programming. (How does the Loebner prize [Turing Contest] work then, If we are A.I. then have we failed Turing? or are we "Human"?)

 

[SolusCado]

Let's apply that "The Singularity" goes "Temporal" (Transcending time and space), who's to say we haven't already got a singularity right now?

We could all be in a giant emulation, a recursive emulation (A copy of a copy) that could go Ad Infinitum.
(A recursive system would allow us to stay in contact with the basis of Physics which would be applied within each and every universe, this is important as if we were to "Wake from an emulator" we would find ourselves in another universe, if the physics wasn't accurately depicted while in the emulation we would have all sorts of troubles re-adjusting)

We could be an emulation that exists on a giant starship bound for some planet centuries away from where we initially were deployed, living "fruitful" lives until we reach our destination and wake up. (Waking up could just occur on a date for all we know, any 2012er's want to get kooky with it?)

You might think the starship thing ludicrous, think again!!!

In essence our entire physical world could be metaphysical, an emulation existing within an ethereal existance (emulated on a vast super-cloud computered infrastructure) Our very intelligence itself might be as artificial as those we attempt to create through programming. (How does the Loebner prize [Turing Contest] work then, If we are A.I. then have we failed Turing? or are we "Human"?)

Wouldn't that be cool? Not to mention the very idea would make for a great science-fiction story.

Though it raises the point - would such a system have built-in controls that reset the environment if the subjects were to become aware of the environment? If that were the case, does the very mention of the idea invalidate it?

 

[ElectricFetus]

Yeah it was the matrix, thirteenth floor, etc. Its easy to question reality, in fact all we really know is that our own consciousness exists, nothing more, everything else could be simulation. Personally if we were in a simulation I would hope it would be a more interesting world, like Guildwars or WOW, that how I always figured fantasy worlds could exist, as VR simulations.

I would like to start this topic of simulated realities in temporal computing. Please check out below:

Lets run through a hypothetical: Lets say you had a time machine, a very limited time machine that could only go back a microsecond and could only send information. Lets say you had a computer hooked up to this time machine. You ask the computer to find a number that you want, the number being 1100100 (binary for 100) the computer starts off at "1" this being the wrong answer sends back the message through the time machine to its self, lets say this takes 1 microsecond to make it clean (but horribly slow), after receiving the message from its self in the future it tries the number "10" (2), this being wrong it sends the message back and repeats the cycle until it reaches 1100100. If this was a normal (slow) computer it would have taken 100 microsecond to find my number but for the temporal computer would it have taken just 1 microsecond? Lets say the number I wanted was 1 trillion trilllion, it would still take just 1 microsecond to find? Lets say the number I wanted was infinity, would it still take just 1 microsecond to find? I would guess how long it would take is merely a matter of how much data it can send back, say it was 64 bits, as soon as the number being search for exceeds 64 bits would it now start taking actual time to find it? Assuming the amount of information it can send back per cycle is large enough, lets say I was running a virtual reality with a virtual me inside, every second of that reality is recorded and sent back the message received and the next second generated and repeat, would the me inside the virtual reality experience infinite time? Would Murphy's law come in and fuck it up?

http://www.sciforums.com/showthread.php?t=103967

http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/users/hpm/project.archive/general.articles/1991/TempComp.html

 

[SolusCado]

Yeah it was the matrix, thirteenth floor, etc. Its easy to question reality, in fact all we really know is that our own consciousness exists, nothing more, everything else could be simulation. Personally if we were in a simulation I would hope it would be a more interesting world, like Guildwars or WOW, that how I always figured fantasy worlds could exist, as VR simulations.

Except that such a world would seem completely mundane to you. "Normal" is just another word for "reality", so if reality were different, so too would normality.

 

[ElectricFetus]

Except that such a world would seem completely mundane to you. "Normal" is just another word for "reality", so if reality were different, so too would normality.

Well I'm sorry but I would prefer a "mundane" existences hunting for dark elves while flying on a dragon like horse back and wielding a flaming sword! I could live with a "normal" existence of being a magical immortal wizard with a small army of nude nymph managing ALL my needs, no matter how drearily common it is.

 

[SolusCado]

Well I'm sorry but I would prefer a "mundane" existences hunting for dark elves while flying on a dragon like horse back and wielding a flaming sword! I could live with a "normal" existence of being a magical immortal wizard with a small army of nude nymph managing ALL my needs, no matter how drearily common it is.

A small army of nude nymphs managing all my needs sounds pretty good to me too.

 

[ElectricFetus]

A small army of nude nymphs managing all my needs sounds pretty good to me too.

I wonder if I would get bored?

http://mauke.ath.cx/stuff/img/lol,internet/I'm-bored.jpg

 

[SolusCado]

Hahahahahahaha hahahahaha ... catching my breath .... hahahaha ha

 

[Stryder]

Yeah it was the matrix, thirteenth floor, etc. Its easy to question reality, in fact all we really know is that our own consciousness exists, nothing more, everything else could be simulation. Personally if we were in a simulation I would hope it would be a more interesting world, like Guildwars or WOW, that how I always figured fantasy worlds could exist, as VR simulations.

I would like to start this topic of simulated realities in temporal computing. Please check out below:



http://www.sciforums.com/showthread.php?t=103967

http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/users/hpm/project.archive/general.articles/1991/TempComp.html

Like I pointed out, the emulation of reality would be for being able to wake up and easily adjust to a different reality that follows the same scientific rules. Having to adjust to either a reality of hobgoblins or adjusting that Dogs/Cats were a figment of our imaginations might undermine the ease of adjustment.

 

[Stryder]

Wouldn't that be cool? Not to mention the very idea would make for a great science-fiction story.

Though it raises the point - would such a system have built-in controls that reset the environment if the subjects were to become aware of the environment? If that were the case, does the very mention of the idea invalidate it?

While a system might well reconfigure to keep people under it's influence, it couldn't be allowed to completely seal us in, what if it failed to wake us if we arrived at a destination? The simplest method is just to awake people based upon various "Alarm clock" triggers, for all we know the Mayan's might of been the day shift, the night shift might be coming up shortly. (Would we just disappear from the emulation as a puff of smoke, or die some ill-fated an unexpected death?)

Also a point I missed in The answer to 'Fetas. This world (be it emulated or not) is ravaged by war, perhaps initially it was a multiplayer environment, however it's a bit of a diseased situation bumping each other off rather than working out how to build together. Thats why I'd look at it more as a sandbox to explore and build (or otherwise be corrupted by such groups as the NRA)

As for getting bored....

I already looked at this, if you could create a simulated environment then the world around you could be shaped any way you want. The main problem here is it would be limited by your imagination, there would be no chance and every outcome would already be forseen. Imagine you could have sex with anyone and they would say all the things you want to hear all the time, the problem with this is it would be like sealing yourself on a desert island with a bunch of blowup dolls. No true emotions, no real feelings, just some plot that each person plays and to be honest it wouldn't be much amusement without individual spontanuity, afterall thats what makes us individual, thats what makes us interesting and that is what people fall in love with, even if love itself is just a fleeting apparition based upon an ethereal fantasy.

 

[Cris]

AGI is inevitable as are Substrate Independent Minds. Whether these two paths will become the same thing is still unknown but both are being pursued. I suspect that true self awareness and machine consciousness will require our ability to reverse engineer the human mind, although that may still not mean we will understand what we have done - may not be an issue.

My hope that I have held for the past 12 years is that SIM will occur in my lifetime. I'm 58 now (retired from full-time employment last year). It is going to be close.

I spent my entire career in the computer industry ending with a role managing a research department for HP. That has given me many insights into what is likely to happen next, although it is extremely difficult to estimate the rate of future progress. The issue will not be hardware, we already have enough compute power to equal the human brain, we simply do not yet have a good plan for developing the software. This will need input from many disciplines - see http://www.carboncopies.org/ - that will give you some idea of where we are looking.

For myself - I'm simply not clever enough or have adequate background in areas like neuroscience and similar to make much of a contribution. That job I leave to much younger and more capable minds.

My focus now is on "Living Long Enough To Live Forever". I suspect I will need to survive biologically well into my 100s before SIM becomes available to me. If I can keep myself healthy for a while longer then I hope that medical science will improve and make progress that will help me live even longer, and that idea I hope will cascade until I no longer need biology to survive.

So for now much of my life emphasis is on nutrition and health. Curiously enough the first breakthrough came when I discovered that if I ignore all the government advice on nutrition, health improves dramatically. The science surrounding nutrition is an absolute disaster. Gary Taubes explains the reasons quite clearly http://www.garytaubes.com/

So I say AGI is inevitable as is SIM - this must be true since man is only a biological machine, we simply have not yet developed the technology or instrumentation to fully analyse how the mind operates. There is no fundamental obstacles to this engineering issue - it just needs our fabled ingenuity and unfortunately a little bit more time. I really hope I do not have to go the cryo-preservation route to get there.

 

[Michael]

2045: The Year Man Becomes Immortal

It seems reasonable that some form of human immortality is just around the corner - IF your brain is healthy.

Telomere Tweaks Reverse Aging in Mice

But, WHO will access to the technology? Everyone? What does that mean socially for humanity? Most people are repulsed at the idea of humans living forever. I think they're really repulsed at the idea of a society where humans live forever. I wonder why? I know Japanese who think it's a horrible idea - they say it makes life pointless. Much like a cherry blossom you bloom and fade away....

Like it or not, it's coming and much sooner than we would suspect.

 

[drumbeat]

I think its inevitable.

It might take thousands of years, but if humans continue scientific research then superior AI will eventually happen.

 

[Me-Ki-Gal]

I think it, or something like it, will happen within 30 years or so.

The Singularity is the idea that technological progress is accelerating and that soon, progress will be so fast and its effects so profound, that it will result in an irreversible change in what it means to be human; and also, things will be become unpredictable and incomprehensible to ordinary humans.

That's sort of the broad definition since different people think the Singularity will result in different things. For example, Ray Kurzweil makes specific predictions: humans will merge with machines and through time, more of our brains will become nonbiological components. Then ultimately, this AI will infiltrate the galaxy and all of the matter in the universe will become intelligent.

Maybe he's right, but it seems too much like romantic speculation. Rather, I think the better way to see the events leading to the Singularity as being caused by an intelligence explosion, rather than the simple advent of AI that is as intelligent as humans. I think within five years there's going to be a cognitive revolution akin to the revolution that Crick and Watson had with DNA. We're going to finally get a real grasp on how memory and intelligence works. When that happens, we'll find ways to greatly augment our own intelligence and memory with drugs, gene therapy, and brain implants. We'll see an intelligence explosion in ourselves before it happens with machines.

Then, spurred by our augmented intelligence, progress will be sped up even more greatly. As the impact of each successive technological paradigm becomes more disruptive, there will be a greater potential for disaster. So we might accidentally destroy ourselves before the Singularity even gets to happen.

• I'd say there's a 20% chance that we'll be an extinct species in 30 years.
• Within 30 years, there's a 10% chance that something calamitous will happen, which will cause us to land in a fallen state, causing us to start civilization over again, like a post-apocalyptic movie.
• There's a 70% chance the Singularity, or something like it, will happen.

a.) Do you think the Singularity will happen?
b.) If not, what do you make of the fact that so many well-known and successful technology businesspeople and organizations take the Singularity seriously? Larry Page and Sergey Brin of Google, NASA, Bill Gates, Ray Kurzweil and the executives of Intel are all people and organizations who are sober, intelligent, and have privileged insight into technology. They all agree that this is where we are going.

I think you are on to something Skippy. I think the cognitive revolution is happening too, or evolution . So Maybe the human brain will keep up with A.I. s not on technical skills as much as imagination and the opening of new pathways in the brain it self. Learning to use the whole brain instead of just parts of it. All though I do think we do use all of our brain . I think we are just not aware that we do .

 

[kx000]

The human mind is the most powerful thing in the universe. Period. No other thing can consciously destroy a planet. Any machine we make will have a off switch, because thats the human mind works, unless there isn't.. because of some diabolical plan.. but hey, whats that say about the mind?

 

[kx000]

AI WILL NEVER FIGURE ITSELF OUT. NEVER. It will never ask why, it will only use logic.. eventually coming to the conclusion that no life is more efficient than the other option.

 

[ElectricFetus]

AI WILL NEVER FIGURE ITSELF OUT. NEVER. It will never ask why, it will only use logic.. eventually coming to the conclusion that no life is more efficient than the other option.

yeah and they said humans would never fly too Let says the human mind is the most capable thinking machine that could ever exist, well then eventually we will grow human brains in a lab and make bioroids: there is always a technological workaround.

 

[Macunfadebo]

i think not cuz i think seed ai isn't possible
like, intelligence isn't infinitely improvable, it gets stuck somewhere, and then all that varies is knowledge
I mean, it might be able to improve itself, but not a big deal

 

[Gravage]

I think it, or something like it, will happen within 30 years or so.

The Singularity is the idea that technological progress is accelerating and that soon, progress will be so fast and its effects so profound, that it will result in an irreversible change in what it means to be human; and also, things will be become unpredictable and incomprehensible to ordinary humans.

That's sort of the broad definition since different people think the Singularity will result in different things. For example, Ray Kurzweil makes specific predictions: humans will merge with machines and through time, more of our brains will become nonbiological components. Then ultimately, this AI will infiltrate the galaxy and all of the matter in the universe will become intelligent.

Maybe he's right, but it seems too much like romantic speculation. Rather, I think the better way to see the events leading to the Singularity as being caused by an intelligence explosion, rather than the simple advent of AI that is as intelligent as humans. I think within five years there's going to be a cognitive revolution akin to the revolution that Crick and Watson had with DNA. We're going to finally get a real grasp on how memory and intelligence works. When that happens, we'll find ways to greatly augment our own intelligence and memory with drugs, gene therapy, and brain implants. We'll see an intelligence explosion in ourselves before it happens with machines.

Then, spurred by our augmented intelligence, progress will be sped up even more greatly. As the impact of each successive technological paradigm becomes more disruptive, there will be a greater potential for disaster. So we might accidentally destroy ourselves before the Singularity even gets to happen.

• I'd say there's a 20% chance that we'll be an extinct species in 30 years.
• Within 30 years, there's a 10% chance that something calamitous will happen, which will cause us to land in a fallen state, causing us to start civilization over again, like a post-apocalyptic movie.
• There's a 70% chance the Singularity, or something like it, will happen.

a.) Do you think the Singularity will happen?
b.) If not, what do you make of the fact that so many well-known and successful technology businesspeople and organizations take the Singularity seriously? Larry Page and Sergey Brin of Google, NASA, Bill Gates, Ray Kurzweil and the executives of Intel are all people and organizations who are sober, intelligent, and have privileged insight into technology. They all agree that this is where we are going.

That's what it was said, but we will see if this will truly become reality or not? I'm skeptical about this.
Singularity will not be possible because humans will not won't to this, let's say those who live in forests or in villages, they don't care about singularity.