The U.S. Economy: Stand by for more worse news

[joepistole]

CNBC: Squawk Box
In Gold We Trust

There is a serious credit contraction underway, I think [Yellen] should acknowledge that. I think she has to look at the capital base being wiped off the banks in this downdraft and equities: that's not supposed to be happening right now. They're supposed to be bulletproof, and oh, by the way, gold at $1,200 an ounce, what does that tell you? It tells you that in a flight to quality, in a safe haven, people have more confidence in gold than in bank deposits or paper money. I think things have gotten out of control."

-- Bob Michele of JPMorgan

That's bullshit Michael. Michele knows bank deposits are safer that gold and most investors, especially savvy investors, know that too. He is engaging in a bit of hyperbole, you know, the kind of stuff you do all the time. But this isn't about safety. It's about speculation. Some people are thinking the Fed will begin another round of quantitative easing and in doing so bring back the inflation speculators. Plus, there are folks who move to gold whenever there is global uncertainty. If deflation is the issue as many people fear, it will eventually affect gold prices as well. If safety were the issue, people would be moving into short term US Treasuries, and many people are doing just that. The flee to safety is manifested in the flight to short term Treasuries, not gold. Because gold is always a speculative investment.

--o--
O' Ye of little faith. The Central Banster Gawds know ALL. They know the value of my coffee
cup here in my hand, and they know the value of all money. So, Be Ye Goo'd State-bots, sacrifice your children's Labour at the alter of the T-Bond.... and perhaps their lives when the Public Psychopaths.... ah, Servants. Servants!!...send em' to die in a Glorious Banker funded Phony War against Aliens or something.....

LOL

Anyway, must be more of The Great Recovery from The Great "Recession"....

So, next stop is we elect a Socialistic POTUS, which probably won't work well given the whole checks and balances thing (remember, "Limited Givernment") and so he'll/she'll have to be blessed more "Executive' powers. Then said Dictator....errr POTUS can 'redistribute' for the Good of Society and in the same breadth return many of our Civil Liberties.
Lose-Win.
But, that's okay, because we'll all be materially better off, which is what really matters. Once we're used to a Dictator, errrr.... Executive / POTUS making all the rules, how about having one for live?
That sound good?
Maybe WWIII will change your mind?

This isn't about the so called "banksters". This is about a global economic slowdown brought about by China and an oversupply of oil and fears that oversupply will cause another banking crisis. The fear isn't in US banks but in European banks. US banks are much better capitalized and much better off that their European counterparts. There is a lot of commodity debt out their, not just oil, and that is causing some nervousness. The stock markets are pricing in a recession which may or may not occur.

At this point, the Fed doesn't see a recession on the horizon. I think, as I have said before, the Fed's rate hike in December was premature. But that's water under the bridge now. What matters is what happens next.

Thus far 64 percent of the 500 companies in the S&P 69% of them have earnings which have exceeded expectations, 11 percent have reported in line earnings and 20 percent have reported earnings below expectations. That's not bad especially when you consider the pain in the energy sector. Earnings for this quarter are down and moderately positive for non energy related stocks. That's the problem.

The economy is very complex. The global economy is very interdependent. Just because things are well in one place (e.g. the US), it doesn't mean external factors like China can adversely affect you.

 

[Michael]

Or was it that you think the bankster there should be facing prison, for their misdeeds?

Not for "misdeeds", but for criminal offenses. A public trial, with jury, will go a long ways towards providing the transparency needed to ensure any 'legal' misdeeds are indeed, made illegal.

I'm sure when such a day arrives, you'll find the general public in favor of ending fiat currency monopoly and manipulation.


Here's a book that was written in 2009 that may clarify some concepts for you:

 

[joepistole]

Not for "misdeeds", but for criminal offenses. A public trial, with jury, will go a long ways towards providing the transparency needed to ensure any 'legal' misdeeds are indeed, made illegal.

I'm sure when such a day arrives, you'll find the general public in favor of ending fiat currency monopoly and manipulation.


Here's a book that was written in 2009 that may clarify some concepts for you:

The book clarifies nothing. Quite the opposite, it confuses and distorts the issues.

 

[Michael]

Just because things are well in one place (e.g. the US),

LOL

 

[joepistole]

LOL

Yeah, LOL. It's an interdependent world. Problems in one part of the world can adversely affect others.

 

[Michael]

Yeah, LOL. It's an interdependent world. Problems in one part of the world can adversely affect others.

The USA is slipping back into it's ongoing depression because of the Fed's rate hike in December. It's what happens when you begin to remove the heroin from the addict. Luckily for us, the Fed will soon launch QE4-eva and we can get our money junky fix again. Junkies can go on and on and on and on.... decades and decades. Or, sometimes they OD. Such a time is usually a good time to transition towards a Dictator. Uncle Sanders is gonna do a little 'redistributing' of everyone's assets for the 'good of society'.

Let's hope Uncle Sanders makes sure the Banking and ex-Banking criminals get everything they deserve and then some

 

[Michael]

 

[joepistole]

The USA is slipping back into it's ongoing depression because of the Fed's rate hike in December. It's what happens when you begin to remove the heroin from the addict. Luckily for us, the Fed will soon launch QE4-eva and we can get our money junky fix again. Junkies can go on and on and on and on.... decades and decades. Or, sometimes they OD. Such a time is usually a good time to transition towards a Dictator. Uncle Sanders is gonna do a little 'redistributing' of everyone's assets for the 'good of society'.

Let's hope Uncle Sanders makes sure the Banking and ex-Banking criminals get everything they deserve and then some

Except the US isn't nor has it been in depression since The Great Depression which ended in 1933. According to the most recent economic data, the US economy is still growing...oops. But you were never one to give a damn about actual evidence and facts.

 

[Michael]

Except the US isn't nor has it been in depression

LOL

The Great Papered over Depression. Next stop: QE4-eva Pro Edition. Order now for your free pitchfork. Followed by, The Great Redistributor and The Great Redistribution. You know, where those with something, have it taken from them by the State and redistributed to others - for the Good of Society.... and The Roads.

 

[Michael]

 

[joepistole]

LOL

The Great Papered over Depression. Next stop: QE4-eva Pro Edition. Order now for your free pitchfork. Followed by, The Great Redistributor and The Great Redistribution. You know, where those with something, have it taken from them by the State and redistributed to others - for the Good of Society.... and The Roads.

In the real world Michael facts are facts.

 

[Michael]

CNN:

Excerpts:
"They [Central Banks] think they are smarter than the market, they are not."
"We are all going to get hurt by a global recession."
"The academic and bureaucrats who don't know what they are doing."
"This is going to be a disaster in the end."
-- Jim Rodgers

His Advice: "You should be very worried. You should be prepared."

Well Jim, maybe as a Billionaire who moved to uptown Singapore, being 'prepared' is relatively easy. But, I'm not sure what your typical 20% of America / functionally illiterate Government School graduate is going to do to 'prepare'? They have a SlumLord to make rent to and a hyper-regulated job and a hyper-regulated menial one at that. What? Ask their SlumLord to let them stay for free? Turn tricks? What exactly does Jim think your typical Government School graduate, who lacks the ability to read and write properly, is going to do? Oh I know, cut back on food, spend much less on any gift to their kids, take a third job and make sure they damn well pay their rent to their SlumLord.

Incidentally, Populous: Trump would tax Carrier air conditioning units for moving to Mexico

I wonder, how much longer before a Populous in Chief decides that the 'Only Solution' is a 99% tax on the wealthy, wealthy being defined as anyone who owns anything: rental property, a business, etc...

 

[iceaura]

"Or was it that you think the bankster there should be facing prison, for their misdeeds?"
Not for "misdeeds", but for criminal offenses.

Ah - so it was the crony, brown-nosing government official demanding documents and adherence to regulations who was the good guy, there, and the private, for - profit, capitalist banker who should be facing consequences.

Got it.

 

[Michael]

Ah - so it was the crony, brown-nosing government official demanding documents and adherence to regulations who was the good guy, there, and the private, for - profit, capitalist banker who should be facing consequences.

Got it.

Yes, that's right, with two exceptions, here, I'll fix your sentence:

Ah - so it was the crony, brown-nosing government official demanding documents and adherence to regulations who was the good guy, there, and the private, for - spoils, criminal banker who should be facing consequences.

It should be noted:
- The Government Official, could be working in the Free-Market, and would be doing a much better job of it, if they were.
- Profit can be a signal of virtuousness, in a free society.
- Capital savings is also a virtue.

As an example, imagine a person makes and sells coffee. They generate a profit. That profit is a sign that they are providing value to those around them in a sustainable manner. As they make profit, they are able to save and invest in the training of another person. These are virtuous acts. Spoils on the other hand, would be the equivalent of making 'profit' as a rent-seeker via regulatory capture. I would also argue, taking advantage of someone whom is vulnerable, may be profitable, but is repugnant. For example, raising the rent on a mother of three, knowing full well she is on hard-times. Then demanding sex or other favors to let her and her children remain in the house. Such behavior would fall into the category of Aesthetics and be classified as repugnant. Of course, if such a person were found out, a virtuous society, would probably make their life hell be withholding all of the necessary trade required to maintain their property, including electricity and food. Social exclusion is as painful as being punched, or more so.

 

[Michael]

ZeroHedge commenting on Fox26

What a cute little Banana Republic this America has become. Our government can’t put a single bank executive in jail for destroying the global economy, but when a mere peasant is caught not paying back his student debt, a team of U.S. Marshals arrive at his door to arrest him at gunpoint. Land of the thief, home of the slave, indeed.

Believe it or not, the US Marshals Service in Houston is arresting people for not paying their outstanding federal student loans. Paul Aker says he was arrested at his home last week for a $1500 federal student loan he received in 1987. He says seven deputy US Marshals showed up at his home with guns and took him to federal court where he had to sign a payment plan for the 29-year-old school loan.

Of course everyone should repay their loan. However, the idea of SWAT being called in on a $1500 debt, whereas the Banksters who not only demented American society itself, with the money-junkies trying to turn half the society into renters and 10% into SlumLords (the New American Dream), but the ONLY Bankster they arrested, was the one the ripped them off. Never mind the Peon's paying the Tax, they're just Tax Chattel to be milked and brought to slaughter.

 

[Michael]

WSJ: Fed Seeing More Cause for Pause on Rates

Federal Reserve officials struggled with uncertainty about the outlook for inflation and growth at their January policy meeting —and whether rising risks to the economy might alter their plans to raise short-term interest rates.

Declining stock and oil prices, doubts about China, indications of declining inflation expectations in markets and other factors left officials split in two camps—those who believed that risks to the economy were materializing and those who wanted to wait and see.

“Participants judged that the overall implication of these developments for the outlook for domestic economic activity was unclear, but they agreed that uncertainty had increased, and many saw these developments as increasing the downside risks to the outlook,” the Fed said in minutes of the Jan. 26-27 policy meeting, which were released Wednesday with their regular three-week lag

The Federal Reserve has no idea what to do, they're as confused as anyone else, probably more so given they live in an Academic Bubble. It's not like Janet Yellen has ever ran a bank before.

Economics isn't a 'science' in it cannot perform the fundamental / quintessentially defining feature of Science: The Scientific Method requires you to be able to repeat your experiment. This isn't possible for Central Banksters.

Central Bankers are more akin to behavioral sociologists. Their line of work is more that of a Propagandist. Raise a tax here, watch the little tax-chattel scurry away from that activity. Give a tax-break there, watch as the little tax-chattel scurry towards that activity. However, time moves forward, the experiment cannot be controlled for as society is continuously changing. So, when their 'models' break, as always happens - which is why we're about to start QE4-eva Pro Ed, it's society they destroy in the process.


All we really need is the freedom to trade with one another, sound money, and laws that protect private property and uphold contract. These are the keys to prosperity. Not a central bank attempting to centrally plan the economy through manipulation, coercion and intimidation.

 

[Michael]

In a sign of the Great Recovery and the virtue of Central Planing: 400,000 Americans In Jeopardy As Giant (State) Pension Fund Plans 50% Benefit Cuts (Kansas City Star)

Dale Dorsey isn’t happy.

After working 33 years, he’s facing a 55% cut to his pension benefits, a blow which he says will “cripple” his family and imperil the livelihood of his two children, one of whom is in the fourth grade and one of whom is just entering high school.

Dorsey attended a town hall meeting in Kansas City on Tuesday where retirees turned out for a discussion on “massive” pension cuts proposed by the Central States Pension Fund, which covers 400,000 participants, and which will almost certainly go broke within the next decade.

“A controversial 2014 law allowed the pension to propose [deep] cuts, many of them by half or more, as a way to perhaps save the fund,” The Kansas City Star wrote earlier this week adding that “two much smaller pensions also have sought similar relief under the law, and still more pensions are significantly underfunded.”

“What’s happening to us is a microcosm of what’s going to happen to the rest of the pensions in the United States,” said Jay Perry, a longtime Teamsters member.

That's okay Dale, see, what you do is you contact your local Central Planner, he'll get you in touch with a Bankster. You then have Kansas sell Bonds on the future labor of those two kids of yours. Done and Dusted.

It's the American Way, and how your parents were able to 'afford' their State Funded Pension with generous benefits. Oh, and if that's not possible (suppose no one/the Chinese wants to buy your children's future labor) then you could just levy a 99% tax on the SlumLords in the State. Sell the houses off to the Chinese. Done and Done.

 

[joepistole]

CNN:

Excerpts:
"They [Central Banks] think they are smarter than the market, they are not."
"We are all going to get hurt by a global recession."
"The academic and bureaucrats who don't know what they are doing."
"This is going to be a disaster in the end."
-- Jim Rodgers

His Advice: "You should be very worried. You should be prepared."

Well Jim, maybe as a Billionaire who moved to uptown Singapore, being 'prepared' is relatively easy. But, I'm not sure what your typical 20% of America / functionally illiterate Government School graduate is going to do to 'prepare'? They have a SlumLord to make rent to and a hyper-regulated job and a hyper-regulated menial one at that. What? Ask their SlumLord to let them stay for free? Turn tricks? What exactly does Jim think your typical Government School graduate, who lacks the ability to read and write properly, is going to do? Oh I know, cut back on food, spend much less on any gift to their kids, take a third job and make sure they damn well pay their rent to their SlumLord.

Incidentally, Populous: Trump would tax Carrier air conditioning units for moving to Mexico

I wonder, how much longer before a Populous in Chief decides that the 'Only Solution' is a 99% tax on the wealthy, wealthy being defined as anyone who owns anything: rental property, a business, etc...

Well, first "Jim" isn't a billionaire - far from it! He is a millionaire. He doesn't have a degree in business or economics. He has very little economic training. He was a politics and philosophy major in college who went to work on Wall Street as a salesman.

His wealth came from a partnership with George Soros. A better description of "Jim" would be "One Note Wonder". "Jim" is perma-bear who pretty much always preaches buy commodities and makes his money selling his newsletter, books and guest appearances. "Jim's" former partner on the other hand is one of the richest men in the world, a true multibillionaire.

 

[joepistole]

In a sign of the Great Recovery and the virtue of Central Planing: 400,000 Americans In Jeopardy As Giant (State) Pension Fund Plans 50% Benefit Cuts (Kansas City Star)

That's okay Dale, see, what you do is you contact your local Central Planner, he'll get you in touch with a Bankster. You then have Kansas sell Bonds on the future labor of those two kids of yours. Done and Dusted.

It's the American Way, and how your parents were able to 'afford' their State Funded Pension with generous benefits. Oh, and if that's not possible (suppose no one/the Chinese wants to buy your children's future labor) then you could just levy a 99% tax on the SlumLords in the State. Sell the houses off to the Chinese. Done and Done.

Well here is the thing about that Michael, why is Kansas running hundreds of millions of dollars in deficit each and every year? Kansas has a balanced budget amendment. Why is the Kansas legislature not adequately funding education and robbing the highway trust fund and pension plans and even taking some Obamacare money? Why has Kansas given the Kansas Department of Transportation (i.e. KDOT/AKA Bank of KDOT) unlimited borrowing authority?

The answer is quite simple Michael and it has absolutely nothing to do with "banksters". It has everything to do with your beloved partisan Libertarian financiers, the Koch brothers. Everyone in the State of Kansas pays income taxes except your beloved Koch brothers and the approximately 3,000 other state residents whose income is derived from limited liability companies. That's your libertarianism in practice Michael. Those deficits would go away if the Kochs would allow their deputy dog (i.e. Governor Brownback) to tax all Kansans equally.

 

[Michael]

In more signs of "THE" Great Recovery.
From: The Guardian, San Francisco tech worker: 'I don't want to see homeless riff-raff'

I am writing today, to voice my concern and outrage over the increasing homeless and drug problem that the city is faced with. I’ve been living in SF for over three years, and without a doubt it is the worst it has ever been. Every day, on my way to, and from work, I see people sprawled across the sidewalk, tent cities, human feces, and the faces of addiction. The city is becoming a shanty town… Worst of all, it is unsafe.

This holiday weekend, I had my parents in town from Santa Barbara and relatives from Denver and Rochester New York. Unfortunately, there was three separate incidents and countless times that we were approached for money and harassed.

The first incident involved a homeless drunken man in the morning coming up to their car and leaning up against it. Another bystander got frustrated with the drunken man, and they got into a heated pushing and shoving altercation.

The second incident occurred as we were leaving Tadich Grill in the financial district. A distraught, and high person was right in front of the restaurant, yelling, screaming, yelling about cocaine, and even, attempted to pull his pants down and show his genitals.

Finally, last night Valentines, I was at Kabuki Theater inside watching a movie. About two hours into the film, a man stumbled in the front door. He proceeded to walk into the theater, down the aisle to the front, wobbled toward the emergency door, opened it, and then took his shirt off and laid down. He then came back into the theater shielding his eyes from the running projector. My girlfriend was terrified and myself and many people ran out of the theater.

What are you going to do to address this problem? The residents of this amazing city no longer feel safe. I know people are frustrated about gentrification happening in the city, but the reality is, we live in a free market society. The wealthy working people have earned their right to live in the city. They went out, got an education, work hard, and earned it. I shouldn’t have to worry about being accosted. I shouldn’t have to see the pain, struggle, and despair of homeless people to and from my way to work every day. I want my parents when they come visit to have a great experience, and enjoy this special place.

I am telling you, there is going to be a revolution. People on both sides are frustrated, and you can sense the anger. The city needs to tackle this problem head on, it can no longer ignore it and let people do whatever they want in the city. I don’t have a magic solution… It is a very difficult and complex situation, but somehow during Super Bowl, almost all of the homeless and riff raff seem to up and vanish. I’m willing to bet that was not a coincidence. Money and political pressure can make change. So it is time to start making progress, or we as citizens will make a change in leadership and elect new officials who can.

Democracy is not the last stop in politics. In-fact, the order of progression according to Socrates via Plato in the Republic goes: timocracy, oligarchy, democracy, and finally tyranny. Socrates argues that a society will decay and pass through each government in succession, eventually becoming a tyranny.

“The greater my city, the greater the individual.”


--o--
Don't worry Joe, we're almost to Tyranny. Then we can finally have "The Great Redistribution" where those with some, have it taken and given to those with none. Beginning with SlumLords. Why SlumLords? Because everyone hates them, so they make for the easiest ScapeGoat. Sure, we can toss "THE" Kochs in there too. One big fat Redistribution for The Good of The Roads.

Dictator Sanders? Executive in Chief Trump? How about Redistribution Czar