The U.S. Economy: Stand by for more worse news

[Michael]

I assure you no one at the Fed thinks that.

Was the sarcasm that subtle? Of course the Federal Reserve Bank of New York doesn't think the economy is heating up, which is why they'll eventually be unveiling QE4. As the Federal Reserve normally raises interest rates to slow down the economy (that's their entire business model, it's called Bubblenomics) the fact their they're raising interest rates at a time when the economy structurally broken and going back into recession - is farcical.

Surely our Central Planner's total incompetence is worthy of scorn - or at least a sarcastic quip?

At least the Federal Reserve did do one thing competently, it bailed out the richest of its members. Sure it'll cost a couple generation of Americans with reduced standard's of living. Oh well. At least the Chattel Class get to maintain their belief in Gods and Central Planner planners and any other alpha male archetypes. It's called "Forward Guidance" back to the norm / "Normalization".

They are thinking about raising the rate .25%. I think you need to get a grip...

See above.

The US is doing just fine in the recovery compared to the rest of the world. We do not live in nirvana so it is not perfect, though.

LOL
We'll see.

You are implying that Hillary Clinton is on par with Hitler? Are you insane or an idiot?

Maybe here I was a little too subtle. The reasons why Germans waved their stupid nazi flag for Hitler as the same reasons why Americans waddle down to wave our stupid flag for Hillary - or hold one of her idiotic placards. The time and place and people may be different, the reasons are the same. It should be noted Hitlary fully supported the never-ending-wars that have killed or led to the deaths of millions of women and children, and in case you forgot, we're still "fighting" and losing (well, unless you own stock in the MIC like Hillary and Bill).

Everything crystal clear now?

 

[origin]

Everything crystal clear now?

Yes indeed. Insane and an idiot.

 

[joepistole]

Was the sarcasm that subtle? Of course the Federal Reserve Bank of New York doesn't think the economy is heating up, which is why they'll eventually be unveiling QE4. As the Federal Reserve normally raises interest rates to slow down the economy (that's their entire business model, it's called Bubblenomics) the fact their they're raising interest rates at a time when the economy structurally broken and going back into recession - is farcical.

Except that makes absolutely no sense. There is no “bubblenomics”, that was something you pulled out of your derriere. The unfortunate fact for you is the economy has done very well. It’s a verifiable fact, now I know you don’t like facts.

Surely our Central Planner's total incompetence is worthy of scorn - or at least a sarcastic quip?

So you think reversing an economy which was shrinking at a 10% annualized rate and more with each passing month and losing 800k+ jobs a month and more with each passing month, and turning it into an economy that has been consistently growing at a steady 2+% and adding 200k+ jobs every month for the last 6 years is incompetence and reason for scorn? And you wonder why people think libertarians are crazy?

Now to be fair, it wasn’t just the Fed who was responsible for the all the above. But the Fed played a huge role, especially after Republicans took control of the House and made fiscal remedies a virtual impossibility leaving the recovery entirely on the back of The Federal Reserve.

At least the Federal Reserve did do one thing competently, it bailed out the richest of its members. Sure it'll cost a couple generation of Americans with reduced standard's of living. Oh well. At least the Chattel Class get to maintain their belief in Gods and Central Planner planners and any other alpha male archetypes. It's called "Forward Guidance" back to the norm / "Normalization".

Actually, that was the US Treasury. It had nothing to do with the Federal Reserve…oops. Two, all the “bailout” money has been recovered and the government made a tidy 8% profit on TARP. So it didn’t cost the government anything. And the bailout thwarted a Great Depression 2.0. It kept banks open. It kept people employed, and it reversed a severe economic decline by turning an economy which was shrinking at a 10% annualized rate into a modest growth economy. It shrunk the deficit by nearly a billion dollars. The "chattel class", and in fact everyone, made out pretty well on the bailouts, everyone but libertarians and Republican partisans who saw their ideology disproven in a very big way.

See above.
LOL
We'll see.
Maybe here I was a little too subtle. The reasons why Germans waved their stupid nazi flag for Hitler as the same reasons why Americans waddle down to wave our stupid flag for Hillary - or hold one of her idiotic placards. The time and place and people may be different, the reasons are the same. It should be noted Hitlary fully supported the never-ending-wars that have killed or led to the deaths of millions of women and children, and in case you forgot, we're still "fighting" and losing (well, unless you own stock in the MIC like Hillary and Bill).
Everything crystal clear now?

I think you need to do your homework before you post. But, hey, you are not interested in fact or reason. It’s all about political dogma with you Michael.

 

[paddoboy]

I think you need to do your homework before you post. But, hey, you are not interested in fact or reason. It’s all about political dogma with you Michael.

Political extremists, just like their anti mainstream science fanatics, will always scream the longest and hardest while ever they can as these forums, [for both parties] are the only outlet they have.

 

[Michael]

Political extremists, just like their anti mainstream science fanatics, will always scream the longest and hardest while ever they can as these forums, [for both parties] are the only outlet they have.

LOL
Were the anti-royalists "political extremists"? (see: Revolutionary war)
Were the abolitionists "political extremists"? (see: Civil War)
Were/Are communists "political extremists"? (see: USSR)
How about Republicanists? Is our push for democracy all across the globe (murdering millions on the process - and we've been doing this since the Korean War) is that "political extremism"?

Labeling someone an 'extremist' is lazy. Like a racist referring to a blackman as a nigger and thinking they've 'won' an argument. When in reality they don't even know what an argument is - let alone how to make one. Or referring to an Asian as a chink. Or an Arab as a rag head. Or an aboriginal as an Abo. Ad hominem is meaningless gibberish often used as cover for normality bias.

There's nothing 'extreme' about understanding that stealing is immoral. It's immoral by definition. There's nothing 'extreme' about understanding that harming an innocent person is immoral. It's immoral by definition.

 

[Michael]

Actually, that was the US Treasury. It had nothing to do with the Federal Reserve…oops. Two, all the “bailout” money has been recovered and the government made a tidy 8% profit on TARP. So it didn’t cost the government anything. And the bailout thwarted a Great Depression 2.0. It kept banks open. It kept people employed, and it reversed a severe economic decline by turning an economy which was shrinking at a 10% annualized rate into a modest growth economy. It shrunk the deficit by nearly a billion dollars.

 

[Michael]

Don't worry, the Great Redistribution is a long ways off. In the meantime American Millennials can get used to their much lower standard of living compared to that of their grandparents as their age.

But, who knows, given there's more Millennials (28%) compared to Baby's (25%), and the fact that the Millennials are very well connected (and favor Progressive Socialism) perhaps it'll be a bit quicker than we think? Particularly once they figure out they're paying for both their University fees AND yours. Which, only takes one of these political demagogues (they're in vogue if you hadn't noticed) to point out for them - and you can gawd damn bet they will, as your generation slowly dies off and no longer commands the electoral base.

Hey, I have an idea. How about a 90% 'tax' on the 'rich' - rich being anyone who owns their own home or even better - tax the SlumLords.

Haha... this should be fun to watch.

 

[paddoboy]

There's nothing 'extreme' about understanding that stealing is immoral. It's immoral by definition. There's nothing 'extreme' about understanding that harming an innocent person is immoral. It's immoral by definition.

There's plenty "extreme" in your own view of politics and life in general as most have noted.
You may see yourself as Robin Hood, I see you as Donald Duck.

 

[joepistole]

And what do you think that chart shows exactly? It shows unemployment declining after stimulus measures were implemented. It also shows that prior to taking office Obama's economic advisors had underestimated the crisis and the magnitude and gravity of the situation they faced. That doesn't change the facts. It doesn't change the fact the bailouts rescued the economy. It kept banks open, it protected retirement savings, and it kept people employed. Your chart demonstrates the bailouts worked. But it is misleading which isn't surprising given its source, the actual unemployment is with Obama's recovery measures, the bailouts, the stimulus. The bailouts and stimulus did occur. So you cannot represent actual unemployment without Obama's stimulus plan as your chart represents...duh.

This isn't a credible chart as it is sourced from a specious site, nor do I see how it is relevant. It shows rising hourly income and decreasing purchasing power (i.e. high inflation). But the reality is wages have been relatively flat and inflation has been almost nonexistent between 0% and 1%. So you chart isn't consistent with known facts. And your shadow stats isn't credible anytime anywhere with well-informed and educated folks. This is from the guy who likes to count employed folks as unemployed in order to gin up the unemployment numbers and cater to the ignorant folk who pay his paycheck (e.g. conspiracy and end of the world nuts).

 

[iceaura]

The most efficient means of dealing with corruption is to make sure the company is privately traded, there's free-market competition and allow it to go bust when the stench gets bad enough. There is NO other way.

I'm not sure the Mafia ever would go bust.

But Enron did - so maybe you're right: the only way to deal with corruption is to let the perpetrators walk away with the money, and stick the fools who got scammed with the loss. That way everyone learns to not do business unless they have powerful friends, and never trust a bank, and pay bribes for all services received, and keep their savings in gold buried in the back yard. Prosperity!

 

[joepistole]

Don't worry, the Great Redistribution is a long ways off. In the meantime American Millennials can get used to their much lower standard of living compared to that of their grandparents as their age.

But, who knows, given there's more Millennials (28%) compared to Baby's (25%), and the fact that the Millennials are very well connected (and favor Progressive Socialism) perhaps it'll be a bit quicker than we think? Particularly once they figure out they're paying for both their University fees AND yours. Which, only takes one of these political demagogues (they're in vogue if you hadn't noticed) to point out for them - and you can gawd damn bet they will, as your generation slowly dies off and no longer commands the electoral base.

Hey, I have an idea. How about a 90% 'tax' on the 'rich' - rich being anyone who owns their own home or even better - tax the SlumLords.

Haha... this should be fun to watch.

Well, we had a 94% tax on the rich after WWII and guess what, it worked. But the rich wasn't defined by homeownership, but rather by income has it has been for centuries. Here is the thing Michael, most people are not complete idiots as you would have us believe. And "most people" favor things that actually work as opposed to things which have been proven not to work (e.g. your libertarianism).

 

[quantum_wave]

Just checking in on this old thread, and it is worth noting that there is a currency war going on.

In a currency war the weakest currency takes the advantage, to the extent that their exports become more competitive abroad. Correspondingly, as countries devalue their currency, the value of gold and silver generally goes up in those countries.

Relative to local goods and services, a devalued currency can hold its value, but that is not the case with import prices, which automatically go up. However, locally, gold and silver can be expected to hold their value in regard to import prices during a currency war, while the devalued currencies lose value relative to those same imported goods and services.

You should consider owning some gold and silver when the price is low, before your country's currency is devalued in an effort to support the competitiveness of it exports.

 

[Billy T]

... You should consider owning some gold and silver when the price is low, before your country's currency is devalued in an effort to support the competitiveness of it exports.

"Supporting competitiveness of exports is not the only reason governments devalue their currency. In fact large devaluations are normally caused by growing per capita debt, as it comes to the point few want to lend more. IE to pay off maturing debt more currency is printed. Flooding the market place with new currency, which is not removed by owner of the maturing bonds, lowers the value of each unit of currency - this becomes a destructive self-reinforcing mechanism.

Hints that the US may already be in the early phases of the destructive process are evident: US per capital debt continues to grow and the Fed, US's central bank, is by far the largest buyer of new treasury paper promises. (bonds).

 

[joepistole]

Just checking in on this old thread, and it is worth noting that there is a currency war going on.

In a currency war the weakest currency takes the advantage, to the extent that their exports become more competitive abroad. Correspondingly, as countries devalue their currency, the value of gold and silver generally goes up in those countries.

Relative to local goods and services, a devalued currency can hold its value, but that is not the case with import prices, which automatically go up. However, locally, gold and silver can be expected to hold their value in regard to import prices during a currency war, while the devalued currencies lose value relative to those same imported goods and services.

You should consider owning some gold and silver when the price is low, before your country's currency is devalued in an effort to support the competitiveness of it exports.

I am with you, up till your assertions on gold. As a result of China's devaluation, all things being equal, the US Dollar can be expected to rise and the price of all commodities, including gold, will fall. China's economic woes, will likely cause gold prices to fall or at least not increase domestically. We will have to see how it works out in China its a function of demand and liquidity. How fast can China grow and how much liquidity will the Chinese government pump into the domestic economy? China has some significant debt and liquidity problems. And I don't know the answer to that question. I hate to speculate on anything in China, God knows what its government will or will not do or what to trust and what to distrust. China's massive foreign currency reserves give China a lot of options. So I think China will eventually weather the storm, but it will likely be a rough road. It isn't a function of ability, but a function of will.

I do think, if you have nerves of steel, now is a good time to begin limited purchasing of commodity producing companies and commodities if you are in the US for long term investments, but you need to careful and pick only the strongest and best in class. Beware of commodity companies bearing debt because many of the weakest may not survive the downturn. I'm not a gold bug, but I think I will be buying some rare gold coins in the next few days. Inflation is normally a driver of commodity prices, and I just don't see any inflation on the horizon for the US. So buyer beware. The US doesn't devalue its currency. It's worth whatever a buyer is willing to pay and a seller is willing sell it for at any point in time. What the US will likely do in response to China's devaluation is to keep interest rates low as China's currency devaluation will naturally slow US economic growth. So there is now no need to raise US interest rates.

 

[joepistole]

"Supporting competitiveness of exports is not the only reason governments devalue their currency. In fact large devaluations are normally caused by growing per capita debt, as it comes to the point few want to lend more. IE to pay off maturing debt more currency is printed. Flooding the market place with new currency, which is not removed by owner of the maturing bonds, lowers the value of each unit of currency - this becomes a destructive self-reinforcing mechanism.

Hints that the US may already be in the early phases of the destructive process are evident: US per capital debt continues to grow and the Fed, US's central bank, is by far the largest buyer of new treasury paper promises. (bonds).

And still no inflation

 

[Michael]

I'm not sure the Mafia ever would go bust.

Much of the Mafia's business is centered around governmental morality laws (war on drugs, war on sex, cigarette taxes, etc..). When the government makes something illegal, something the general public want (prohibition) this opens up market share for various Mafia.

Of course, the biggest Mafia IS the government - and its Central Banksters.

But Enron did - so maybe you're right: the only way to deal with corruption is to let the perpetrators walk away with the money, and stick the fools who got scammed with the loss. That way everyone learns to not do business unless they have powerful friends, and never trust a bank, and pay bribes for all services received, and keep their savings in gold buried in the back yard. Prosperity!

Maybe you forgot just how much the good crooks running Enron were spending buying various governmental officials and rigging the hyper-regulated markets? In a FREE market, there would never BE an Enron.

That aside, you have a dreary dismal view of humanity. Ebay is a relative free-market, and get this, sometimes people do get scammed. But, it's not that big of a deal, particularly compared to how many fair valued trades take place. OH, and get this, without any Governmental regulations at all, somehow the little people are able to tell shit from shinola simply using a ratings system. Gee, maybe we actually CAN live with freedom and simple laws?! Gee, maybe we don't need a Police State?!

It should be noted: GM also went bankrupt. Were they corrupt? Or just run incompetently? Or perhaps the UAW drove them under? It really doesn't matter. The fact is people didn't want their shitty trucks and cars at $50,000 a pop. Of course, the Government bailed them out selling T-Bonds on the labor of their retired grandparents grandkids. Pretty much Murika in the nutshell.

 

[Michael]

And still no inflation

 

[iceaura]

Maybe you forgot just how much the good crooks running Enron were spending buying various governmental officials and rigging the hyper-regulated markets?

They were buying deregulation - freedom from regulation. That's what allowed them to rig the market.

In a FREE market, there would never BE an Enron.

There was.

That aside, you have a dreary dismal view of humanity. Ebay is a relative free-market, - - -

Ebay is more heavily regulated than Enron was. And nobody is playing with millions on Ebay - predators don't waste much time on mosquitoes. So you're safe - like the penny jar on the counter.

 

[joepistole]

Except like your other charts and your other data, your above chart is fiction, it's intended to fool the fools.


Below is a link to the real US inflation numbers. The average US inflation rate for 2015 is a negative .05%. So yeah, no inflation. It helps Michael if you use credible information from credible sources.

http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/historical-inflation-rates/

 

[Michael]

They were buying deregulation - freedom from regulation. That's what allowed them to rig the market.

Look Enron was regulated by the government. It's that simple. Energy companies are highly regulated. You pretending Enron was working in a unregulated free-market is specious bullcrap. Everything from health and safety to our money itself is regulated by the government.

There was.

In your fantasy world. There was millions and millions and millions of lines of code regulating Enron. That this didn't matter is exactly why we need LESS reliance on incompetent overpaid governmental 'regulators' (most of whom couldn't care one way or the other as they have no skin in the game and at the end of the day, they'll get their paychecks) and more reliance on free-market solutions to develop regulations, ones that actually work and are implemented by people who actually have skin in the game.

Yes, I know, it's impossible for you to imagine a free society where free people actually work with one another to figure out real world solutions to problems like corrupt CEOs without someone sticking a gun to the back of someone elses' head.

That's your box.

The very concept must seem alien to you. You probably think we 'just need MOAR governmental regulation. Moar government. Never mind it's K-12 is an utter failure. Never mind it imprisons the largest population of non-violent Citizens in human history (putting the Soviet Gulags to shame). Never mind it's the largest polluter in human history. Never mind it's the largest consumer (and waster) of limited energy in human history. Never mind it makes up phony wars to waste trillions and trillions on supporting the MIC by murdering everything from women and children to the planet's various ecosystems. Never mind it's central bank caused the Great Depression and now led us into the next Greater Depression. Never mind it's sold trillions and trillions and trillions of of T-bonds to bail out the richest criminal banking crooks in human history. Never mind it's illegally spying on each and every one of our communications.

No, never mind all that.
We just need MOAR governmental regulations. That'll fix everything.
We get millions and millions and millions of lines of regulation each year, but we just need MOAR.

Ebay is more heavily regulated than Enron was. And nobody is playing with millions on Ebay - predators don't waste much time on mosquitoes. So you're safe - like the penny jar on the counter.

Prove it.

I can go onto Ebay right now and put something up for sale. Prove my actions are more regulated than that of the CEO of Enron.

Again, you're simply full of specious post-hoc justifications of your normalization biases. You happened to be born into the US Republic and are alive in 2015 and so this seems to make sense to you. You're no different from a Slave owner of the 1800s or a Peon from the 1500s or Roman Citizen or Roman Slave of the 100s. You simply normalized to the world you were born into and that is that.

That's your box.