Billy T, you ungrateful non-American! Have you no decency? Have you no respect for Ben Shalom Bernanke? Have you no respect for the money worshippers? Not even Boner?
For the father, nothing.
For the father, nothing.
The U.S. Economy: Stand by for more worse news
- Thread starter Brian Foley
- Start date
I did not exonerate the Dems - I simply pointed out that they did not move left. The assertion, in your article there, that some kind of mutual and damaging polarization happened because both sides moved toward their supposed respective extremes, is completely false.Billy said:
The Dems did not move left. They moved right. And the fact that Congress moving right is what led up to this economic disaster is an important fact - it's the reality that the propaganda campaign about "both sides" and "left vs right" and so forth is designed to conceal.
That's not a simple observation.quadraphonics said:
We are seeing community organizations in general falling on hard times - the "bowling alone" factor. We are also seeing increasing racial segregation in the schools, higher rates of divorce, more abuse of prescription drugs, more laws and pressure for more laws restricting personal behavior (motorcycle helmets, smoking even in private, etc), such signs of educational neglect as vending machines for brand name soda in the schools and cancellation of physical activity time or music study and the like, and so forth. Socially, the picture is not one of dependable or general "progressive" motion, unless by "progressive" one means an odd mix of hassles and miserly fragmentation.
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I think your post is ironic sarcastic - that you are agreeing with me, but I am not sure as don't know understand the ref to Boner or the father.
Perhaps I should take your post literally - as a criticism? In any case, I note that I have a lot of respect for Bernanke - he is doing his assigned job well - not what most understand that to be however.
Both he and Obama, are doing everything they can, and be damned that makes the ultimate problem worse. Their job as they see it (but never will say so) is to delay the coming depression until Obama's first (and only, by choice) term is over.
Most posting here do not expect the run on the dollar I predicted years ago* followed by prompt descent into long lasting depression in US & EU, but look at my prediction record: Before you (or I) had heard the term “sub prime mortgages” I forecast the housing market collapse and the associated personal debt increase here in my September 2006 post at http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=1135180&postcount=68 Which includes:
“… For several years, many people have had "too little income to pay expenses" but could hide the fact by borrowing against the increasing value of their home, refinancing their mortgage at lower rate to reduce monthly expenses etc, but those days are over. In a few cases already, the housing bubble has collapsed enough that they now have "negative equity" in their home and their numbers will rapidly increase as banks reposes and more houses come on the market than the supply of buyers able to buy. In most parts of the US it has already flipped to a "buyer's market" from a "sellers market" and in several area, negative appreciation (recently bought homes sold with net loss after "closing costs," agent's commission, etc.) is already happening, if not common. …"
{This post was based on fact GWB was destroying middle class with salaries DECREASING in real purchasing power, increasing US debt fast after Clinton's balanced budgets and transferring wealth upwards to the already rich in an economy that was 2/3 middle class consumer based. - Why I call the coming depression "GWB's depression." }
The main reason why most do not belief a major disaster ** is soon coming is because nothing even remotely like that has ever happened in America, except on small local scale, in Watts and Detroit, etc. This is a well known subdivision of “psychological denial”, called the “normalcy bias.” Read more about it at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias
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* The run predicted to happen on or before Halloween 2014, but because of the huge rate of going into debt, about a year ago, I suggested, without changing my prediction, that it probably would occur in the first half of 2013 some months after Obama has left office. He and Bernanke will spend printed and borrowed dollars as needed to boost GDP, stock market, etc. giving the illusion that economy is recovering until his first and only, by his choice***, term is over.
** Gas too expensive for most people to buy so their car is up on cinder blocks with no resale value, food much higher priced and some shortage especially in inner cities with riots with looting and even armed mobs seeking food in suburban basements, ration cards to reduce food hoarding, martial law, etc.
*** Obama, is not dumb. He knows this spending will insure the dollar collapse and does not want to be POTUS when it happens. He will probably explain why he will not seek a second term with reference to fact that he has served his country ever since graduation from law school instead of taking one of the high paid jobs offered**** by major law firms and now needs to spend more time with his family before his girls go off to college, etc.
**** As the editor of the Harvard Law Review (and also Black !) he could easily have gotten four or five times the typical law graduate's salary but he became a low paid social worker in Chicago slums. - Crazy (like the very smart fox he is.)
“… For several years, many people have had "too little income to pay expenses" but could hide the fact by borrowing against the increasing value of their home, refinancing their mortgage at lower rate to reduce monthly expenses etc, but those days are over. In a few cases already, the housing bubble has collapsed enough that they now have "negative equity" in their home and their numbers will rapidly increase as banks reposes and more houses come on the market than the supply of buyers able to buy. In most parts of the US it has already flipped to a "buyer's market" from a "sellers market" and in several area, negative appreciation (recently bought homes sold with net loss after "closing costs," agent's commission, etc.) is already happening, if not common. …"
{This post was based on fact GWB was destroying middle class with salaries DECREASING in real purchasing power, increasing US debt fast after Clinton's balanced budgets and transferring wealth upwards to the already rich in an economy that was 2/3 middle class consumer based. - Why I call the coming depression "GWB's depression." }
The main reason why most do not belief a major disaster ** is soon coming is because nothing even remotely like that has ever happened in America, except on small local scale, in Watts and Detroit, etc. This is a well known subdivision of “psychological denial”, called the “normalcy bias.” Read more about it at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias
--------------------
* The run predicted to happen on or before Halloween 2014, but because of the huge rate of going into debt, about a year ago, I suggested, without changing my prediction, that it probably would occur in the first half of 2013 some months after Obama has left office. He and Bernanke will spend printed and borrowed dollars as needed to boost GDP, stock market, etc. giving the illusion that economy is recovering until his first and only, by his choice***, term is over.
** Gas too expensive for most people to buy so their car is up on cinder blocks with no resale value, food much higher priced and some shortage especially in inner cities with riots with looting and even armed mobs seeking food in suburban basements, ration cards to reduce food hoarding, martial law, etc.
*** Obama, is not dumb. He knows this spending will insure the dollar collapse and does not want to be POTUS when it happens. He will probably explain why he will not seek a second term with reference to fact that he has served his country ever since graduation from law school instead of taking one of the high paid jobs offered**** by major law firms and now needs to spend more time with his family before his girls go off to college, etc.
**** As the editor of the Harvard Law Review (and also Black !) he could easily have gotten four or five times the typical law graduate's salary but he became a low paid social worker in Chicago slums. - Crazy (like the very smart fox he is.)
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Although over done, the following video shows why the US government probably is hurting more than helping the economy recover* with things like housing subsidies, "cash for clunkers" etc. See video at: http://inflation.us/videos.html but it will soon be replaced by others so you may need to search list of earlier videos for title, "unintended consequences."
* Not that I believe any recovery is even possible for any government with debt > 90% of GDP. Why? See post 44 &40.
* Not that I believe any recovery is even possible for any government with debt > 90% of GDP. Why? See post 44 &40.
I don't think he will seek a 2nd term as that was the terms of the "secret" deal with Hillary and the owners of the U.S when they decided Barack this time and Hillary next time.
http://www.mtv.com/news/articles/1588881/20080606/story.jhtml
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=9270
http://www.mtv.com/news/articles/1588881/20080606/story.jhtml
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=9270
I don't think Hillary is dumb enough to want to have GWB's depression happen when she is POTUS.
Obama & Bernanke will spend and spend more. That will lure the Republicans in to a trap - easy to blame Dems as "big spenders" as this time unlike prior times, it will be true. The Republicans will promise to be fiscally responsible, save the country, (both now impossible tasks) etc. and get elected in landslides, taking the White House with ease - and it will server them right if they are blamed for Republican GWB's depression.
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"the econamy is suffering, let it die." -Anti Flag
Americans Believe China Has Surpassed the United States in Economic Strength
According to a new poll conducted by Allstate and the National Journal most Americans believe that the U.S. economy has already been surpassed by China's economy. Only 20% of Americans polled believe that the United States has the strongest economy in the world, while nearly half say this distinction lies with China.
Despite this pessimistic view, one-third of Americans (34%) believe the United States will have the world's strongest economy 20 years from now, roughly in line with those who hold similar expectations of China's economy (37%). Respondents cited America's strengths in its higher education system (74%), science and research (66%), workforce (56%) and corporate leaders (57%).
For more information visit allstatenewsroom.com
According to a new poll conducted by Allstate and the National Journal most Americans believe that the U.S. economy has already been surpassed by China's economy. Only 20% of Americans polled believe that the United States has the strongest economy in the world, while nearly half say this distinction lies with China.
Despite this pessimistic view, one-third of Americans (34%) believe the United States will have the world's strongest economy 20 years from now, roughly in line with those who hold similar expectations of China's economy (37%). Respondents cited America's strengths in its higher education system (74%), science and research (66%), workforce (56%) and corporate leaders (57%).
For more information visit allstatenewsroom.com
Wow just wow,all the reasons stated for a stronger economy in 20 years are exactly the reasons why the US is free-falling.What miracles are going to take place for this strongest economy in 20 years?:shrug:
And most Americans are very misinformed. For all of the hype about how bad the economy is; I have been steadily employed in private industry for almost 30 years. Last year, 2009, I made more money than at any time in my career. With each passing year I make more money. And I have never had trouble finding employment.
Things really are not as bad as what is being represented in the press. Most Americans get up each day and go to work; bring home a pay check and pay their bills. That is the stark reality of life in America.
The US certianly has troubles. But the bad news is very much overstated. The pessimism is very much over played at this point. And I am getting a little tired of it.
Sorry if that POV is tiresome and hope your POV is correct, but strongly doubt it is. Instead I think most, as mentioned in post 44, suffer from the "normalcy bias" described here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias
Even the heavens agree
:The full moon eclipse will start just after midnight Eastern Time on Tuesday,21 December 2010 with the main event starting at 1:30 a.m. ET and lasting until 5:30 a.m., when the moon reappears. This one is special (last one like it was 372 years ago) as it occurs on the shortest day of the year (for people in the Northern Hemisphere) and on longest daylight in the Southern Hemisphere. I.e. a full lunar eclipse & the solstice on the same day!
It seems to be an omen that dark days are here for the Developed World of the N. H. and bright days economically are ahead the developing world of the Southern Hemisphere.
Read more at: http://www.montrealgazette.com/life...+first+years/3983582/story.html#ixzz18mctHDtX
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Sorry if that POV is tiresome and hope your POV is correct, but strongly doubt it is. Instead I think most, as mentioned in post 44, suffer from the "normalcy bias" described here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias
Even the heavens agree
The full moon eclipse will start just after midnight Eastern Time on Tuesday,21 December 2010 with the main event starting at 1:30 a.m. ET and lasting until 5:30 a.m., when the moon reappears. This one is special (last one like it was 372 years ago) as it occurs on the shortest day of the year (for people in the Northern Hemisphere) and on longest daylight in the Southern Hemisphere. I.e. a full lunar eclipse & the solstice on the same day!
It seems to be an omen that dark days are here for the Developed World of the N. H. and bright days economically are ahead the developing world of the Southern Hemisphere.
Read more at: http://www.montrealgazette.com/life...+first+years/3983582/story.html#ixzz18mctHDtX
I don't think I suffer from normalcy bias. But things are not as bad as many people are representing them to be either. Despite our high unemployment rate, 90 percent of the work force is employed. Despite all of our economic problems, the nation income is still growing at a modest pace. And despite all of the clamor about inflation, the money supply remains relatively unchanged and inflation remains very tame.
So there are a lot of good things that often get over looked in our mass mania to proclaim the sky is falling. The sky is not falling.
However just because the sky is not yet falling does not mean that the sky will not fall. It indeed could. Our fate depends on us and what we do or do not do. Our future is in our hands. I am not yet of the belief/opinion that the die is cast.
Although concerned at the humanistic level about 10% and chronic unemployment, positive things you listed are not my main economic concerns. It is the Debt to GDP ratio and the fact that at some point in time it will be to China's economic advantage to destroy the dollar, even with some cost to itself, if it has not already collapsed.
I have twice now described the highly unusual reasons why Great Briton was, at the start of the industrial revolution, the only nation in history to survive a debt to GDP ratio over 90% which is where the US is (or very soon will be) now. Interest rates in the US are now rising, even the shorter term ones now, so the borrowing (increase in debt) will be faster now for four reasons than a couple of years ago:
(1) Federal & state deficits growing, not shrinking.
(2) Thus total owed is increasing.
(3) Cost of financing debt, interest, even per dollar owed, is increasing as interest rate rise.
(4) "Printing press" money is making up for more of the financing the above, especially as China grows increasingly resistant to lend more to US. (Actually lowered their dollar holdings by 100 billion in nine months ending July 2009 and probable are continuing to do so. Also China is spending reserves ASAP - The more than half a trillion order for 245 new nuclear plants will make a big drop in their reserves. Thus, it will hurt less when they decide to dump their US bonds to destroy the dollar for long term economic gains.
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I would point out that the banking system at the begining of the Industrial Revoution was not the banking system in place today. A more recent case of excessive debt to GDP would be in the post WWII era which was followed by a prolonged period historic economic expansion.
The question before us is our large debt about half of which is owed to the government itself. I don't view China as the economic threat you perceive it to be. As China spends down its reserves that money is going somewhere and in many cases it is coming back to the US. As the dollar falls and the Yuan divorces itself from the US dollar, US produced goods become much cheaper and more competitive. And the US still has the luxury of monetizing it's debt should it choose to do so. The other thing that works to the advantage of the US is that most every other industrial country is in the same boat.
I think the biggest risk before the US now is political risk -the political risk presented by the emergence of the Tea Party. It remains to be seen if we will have the ability to make responsible economic decisions in the coming years ahead. It is a subject which is never far from my mind. Having blown off one foot, we could easily blow off the other. In the end, I don't believe that our fate is yet cast in die. Our future, in my opinion, is still ours to win or loose.
That too was when one country had almost all of the world working factories - far different than today's case when US's older than Chinese factories can't compete.
News flash for you: It has already so chosen.
Yes the Euro and Dollar will die together, but Yuan will be "better than gold" as it pays interest.
Well we disagree here. I am sticking with my long standing prediction that a run destroys the dollar by or before Halloween 2014. So from that POV what the tea party does or dosen't do is not very important. - I think GWB set the sad fate of the US during his years as POTUS.
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That point in time will also include China lacking the ability to "destroy the dollar." The wonderful thing about economic interdependence is that one only gains leverage over another by accepting dependence on them. That's why this stuff works as a hedge on/alternative to warfare. We wouldn't do it, if it produced the same power dynamics as actual warfare.
So long as China has sufficient dollar reserves to pose a threat to the dollar, it will not be in China's interest to harm the dollar - quite the opposite. The day that China can afford to wipe out its foreign exchange reserves will be the same day that China doesn't have enough foreign exchange reserves to threaten the dollar.
None of your post makes sense to me and is only your assertions and assumptions.
Another part of gaining that independence is the rapidly growing intra-Asian trade. For example S. Korea now has China, no longer the US, as its main trading partner. China has signed 8 free trade agreements with other Asian nations and is negotiating 5 others now. China is also greatly growing it trade with Argentina and Brazil and several other smaller S. American nations as their trade with the US declines. China, not the US, is now Brazil's major trading partner and same may be true of others in S America.
Still another part of what will be (and already is) replacing US as needed partner in trade is the long term contracts signed for essentials China will need from Africa as there, instead of spending down dollars from reserves, China is obligating itself to build infrastructure (railroads, hospitals, communication networks, ports, mines and dams, etc. For example more than half the dams currently under construction in the world, but not in China are being built by China in Africa.
These are facts, not asserted opinions, showing how China is switching to non US trading partners.
The question, at least from the Chinese POV is more than just economic break even. China has been humiliated by the west (and Japan in WWII) for more than a century. Recall it was the Brits who introduce opium into China to make control of them easier. Face saving is very important and showing that their economic system is superior will go a long way to restoring face.
I have not yet read the original article from The Economist (I read a full translation in Portuguese) but it tells how an event that started in 492 BC shapes Chinese thinking, even today. King Goujian of one region attacked King Fuchai of the province to his north, and was defeated. He spent years in prison, was feed slop, sleep on branches, etc. but after years he got free and returned home. There after years more he raised an army 50,000 strong and attacked again, won, and had his revenge. That it is still the Chinese way - suffer what you must, be patient, grow stronger, and then when you can, smash your enemy.
China would and is. Also China is working hard to have little need or dependence upon the US. Why China is rapidly increasing the salaries of its population and decreasing their need to save for old age, sickness etc. - I.e. growing the domestic market to replace part of the exports to the US.
Another part of gaining that independence is the rapidly growing intra-Asian trade. For example S. Korea now has China, no longer the US, as its main trading partner. China has signed 8 free trade agreements with other Asian nations and is negotiating 5 others now. China is also greatly growing it trade with Argentina and Brazil and several other smaller S. American nations as their trade with the US declines. China, not the US, is now Brazil's major trading partner and same may be true of others in S America.
Still another part of what will be (and already is) replacing US as needed partner in trade is the long term contracts signed for essentials China will need from Africa as there, instead of spending down dollars from reserves, China is obligating itself to build infrastructure (railroads, hospitals, communication networks, ports, mines and dams, etc. For example more than half the dams currently under construction in the world, but not in China are being built by China in Africa.
These are facts, not asserted opinions, showing how China is switching to non US trading partners.
No, not true. Economically it is a question of what pay back / recovery period China requires. I.e. the annual saving in the cost of it imports when the US and EU are not able to import these same items as competitors as they are in deep depression must exceed the loss of value on the dollars China still holds in it reserves. Spending more than half a trillion dollars from reserves to buy 245 new nuclear power plants, I think has moved that "Kill the dollar day" (for long term net gain) at least one year closer.
The question, at least from the Chinese POV is more than just economic break even. China has been humiliated by the west (and Japan in WWII) for more than a century. Recall it was the Brits who introduce opium into China to make control of them easier. Face saving is very important and showing that their economic system is superior will go a long way to restoring face.
I have not yet read the original article from The Economist (I read a full translation in Portuguese) but it tells how an event that started in 492 BC shapes Chinese thinking, even today. King Goujian of one region attacked King Fuchai of the province to his north, and was defeated. He spent years in prison, was feed slop, sleep on branches, etc. but after years he got free and returned home. There after years more he raised an army 50,000 strong and attacked again, won, and had his revenge. That it is still the Chinese way - suffer what you must, be patient, grow stronger, and then when you can, smash your enemy.
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True, the US has a virtual monopoly on global production and China was a backwater undeveloped country. But the US is still the only super power and it is still the world's single largest economy. If the US can muster the political will, it can solve its debt and economic problems. My concern is that the US may not be able to muster the economic will or domestic leadership to do the things that must be done.
No news flash here. The Fed has been purchasing US debt for a very long time. That is why the Fed is the single largest holder of US debt in the world . . . holding more US debt than even China or Japan.
QE2 is a fancy term for monetization of US debt. My point was and is that the US could ramp up monetization and dramatically reduce the net US debt. And there is room to do so as the overall money supply has remained relatively flat and inflation has been very low.
I disagree with you contention that the Yuan will be better than gold. The Yuan has a problem now. It is called inflation. . . with each passing year the Yuan will buy fewer and fewer goods and services. That is why it needs to pay a higher intererst rate. The Yuan is in an inflation cycle.
The price of success is that your expenses rise. China's biggest competitive advantage is that is is a low cost producer. And as its economy matures it will loose its cost advantage to neighboring countries like Vietnam. Places like Vietnam will start reaping the benefits of being a low cost production nation and the holding of large amounts of US currency and debt.
I agree with you in that George II and his merry band of Republicans set us on a very dangerous and disasterous course. But I think recovery is still possible if we are able to make the right and difficult decisions going forward. Because of George II and his merry band of Republicans, the margin for error is slim. But I am not writting off the nation at this point . . . time will tell.
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“… paper money's track record is unblemished by success. The return of paper money to its intrinsic value (nothing) is guaranteed. … paper money systems allow for the rapid expansion of the monetary base to facilitate paying off debts in devalued money. … It normally happens faster in democracies, where no strong interest group votes for living within the country's means and repaying its creditors in sound money. No, people vote for more spending and more debt. And they always expect someone else to pay. Case in point...Greece:
For example, the national railroad has annual revenues of €100 million... against a wage bill of €400 million and another €300 million in expenses. The Ministry of Agriculture hired 270 people to digitize photographs of Greek public lands... with one digital camera. … In total, the Greek government owes €1.2 trillion. That's €250,000 for every adult. … Obviously, Greece cannot repay this money in sound currency. The only way out is for the Greeks to inflate the debt away -- effectively stealing from their creditors with a printing press. That they haven't done so yet is only because they no longer have their own currency, the drachma. … ”
Quote from: http://www.taipanpublishinggroup.com {Despite their name, they are an investment advise firm based in Baltimore}
Billy T notes: At 1.4 $/ Euro, that is $350,000 per adult Greek. The US has about 200 million adults and 12 trillion in Federal debt (not including state, personal debts or off budget future items like Social Security, Medicare for the swelling retired population.). Thus 12E12 / 2E8 = $60,000 or about 1/3 of the Greek per adult debt if these items are included, I would guess. I.e. a lessor but still unpayable amount. The US does have its own currency printing press and is increasingly using it.
When the dollar collapse starts it will go to completion (paper dollar’s intrinsic worth) with startling speed because there are so many more of them in foreign hands than American have. – Everyone with dollars will be trying to buy something of stable value at the same time. Probably exports of existing real goods will surge with large nominal profits and real assets inside the US like farm lands, coal deposits, etc. will be sold for undreamed of nominal profits. Other things / companies tied to the real US (or EU) economy which sell mainly to American (or Europeans) will not be very attract as purchases as they will be sinking into depression, but some US (and EU) stocks, which get most of the profits from sales to developing nations will rise in nominal terms.
A very valid concern as no fiat currency democracy ever has:
“… paper money's track record is unblemished by success. The return of paper money to its intrinsic value (nothing) is guaranteed. … paper money systems allow for the rapid expansion of the monetary base to facilitate paying off debts in devalued money. … It normally happens faster in democracies, where no strong interest group votes for living within the country's means and repaying its creditors in sound money. No, people vote for more spending and more debt. And they always expect someone else to pay. Case in point...Greece:
For example, the national railroad has annual revenues of €100 million... against a wage bill of €400 million and another €300 million in expenses. The Ministry of Agriculture hired 270 people to digitize photographs of Greek public lands... with one digital camera. … In total, the Greek government owes €1.2 trillion. That's €250,000 for every adult. … Obviously, Greece cannot repay this money in sound currency. The only way out is for the Greeks to inflate the debt away -- effectively stealing from their creditors with a printing press. That they haven't done so yet is only because they no longer have their own currency, the drachma. … ”
Quote from: http://www.taipanpublishinggroup.com {Despite their name, they are an investment advise firm based in Baltimore}
Billy T notes: At 1.4 $/ Euro, that is $350,000 per adult Greek. The US has about 200 million adults and 12 trillion in Federal debt (not including state, personal debts or off budget future items like Social Security, Medicare for the swelling retired population.). Thus 12E12 / 2E8 = $60,000 or about 1/3 of the Greek per adult debt if these items are included, I would guess. I.e. a lessor but still unpayable amount. The US does have its own currency printing press and is increasingly using it.
When the dollar collapse starts it will go to completion (paper dollar’s intrinsic worth) with startling speed because there are so many more of them in foreign hands than American have. – Everyone with dollars will be trying to buy something of stable value at the same time. Probably exports of existing real goods will surge with large nominal profits and real assets inside the US like farm lands, coal deposits, etc. will be sold for undreamed of nominal profits. Other things / companies tied to the real US (or EU) economy which sell mainly to American (or Europeans) will not be very attract as purchases as they will be sinking into depression, but some US (and EU) stocks, which get most of the profits from sales to developing nations will rise in nominal terms.
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