Following is the heart of Stella Dawson’s (of Reuters) article called: “Insight: West in political crisis has echoes of 1930” (released less than 2 hours ago)
“… The political malaise is also hastening the shift of world economic power toward developing countries led by China. At worst, it could cause a second global recession bringing with it political upheaval on a scale not seen since the 1930s.
These unpalatable scenarios are being sketched by a growing number of leading political strategists, academics and economists {& by Billy T nearly six years ago, mentioning wide spread rioting in the US etc. and suggesting buying ADRs of Brazil & India for financial protection when dollar collapses (predicted to be by Halloween 2014.)} after an extraordinary year when the once unthinkable came to pass: the United States had its credit rating downgraded while the developing world enjoys upgrades; Europe went cap in hand to Beijing for a financial bailout; and Brazil overtook Britain within the G7 club of major economies.
The shifting international economic order toward developing countries is nothing new. But it has been happening at a faster pace than expected, accelerated by what these analysts have begun describing as Western democracy in crisis.
They see a government credibility problem in the United States and European Union, stemming from a perception that the political elite is too closely tied to the financial elite* in the West, and their collusion caused the financial chaos of 2007 and 2008 and its messy aftermath, leaving the average citizen burdened with higher public debt, higher taxes, unemployment and austerity programs.
Left to pay for what voters see as the elite's mistakes, public confidence in government has been undermined, and political paralysis has set in as Western leaders struggle to pull governmental levers that are not working effectively.
In contrast, developing nations have been modernizing their institutions and markets, delivering growth rates in the past decade triple those of the West. By 2020, the Centre for Economics and Business Research in London estimates that India and Russia will have joined China and Brazil in the G7 ranks as the biggest economies in the world based on total GDP output, ousting Britain and France. Only the United States, Japan and Germany will be left from the old G7 that dominated the international order since World War II. …”
Read her article in full here: http://news.yahoo.com/insight-west-political-crisis-echoes-1930s-130406733.html
* This part of her text was made bold by Billy T, who notes that fundamentally this firm connection is caused by the huge cost of modern national elections. - I.e. the rich and corporations not only have lobbyist writing the tax laws but also get politicians they like elected by a nation of poorly educated sheep, who vote as the TV tells them too.
BTW, I think her last quoted sentence is 2/3 wrong. US and Germany in 2020 will just be starting to recover from the world's worst ever depression; Probably under the tight control of military governments / or even Marshall law still. Japan which already has China as its main trading partner probably will still be an industrial power and part of the G-7 (if it still exists), but the suppliers of energy, food stocks, and raw materials, like Brazil, Canada, Australia and oil exporters (except Norway and Russia) will be "economic colonies" of Asia, especially China and not in depression.
“… The political malaise is also hastening the shift of world economic power toward developing countries led by China. At worst, it could cause a second global recession bringing with it political upheaval on a scale not seen since the 1930s.
These unpalatable scenarios are being sketched by a growing number of leading political strategists, academics and economists {& by Billy T nearly six years ago, mentioning wide spread rioting in the US etc. and suggesting buying ADRs of Brazil & India for financial protection when dollar collapses (predicted to be by Halloween 2014.)} after an extraordinary year when the once unthinkable came to pass: the United States had its credit rating downgraded while the developing world enjoys upgrades; Europe went cap in hand to Beijing for a financial bailout; and Brazil overtook Britain within the G7 club of major economies.
The shifting international economic order toward developing countries is nothing new. But it has been happening at a faster pace than expected, accelerated by what these analysts have begun describing as Western democracy in crisis.
They see a government credibility problem in the United States and European Union, stemming from a perception that the political elite is too closely tied to the financial elite* in the West, and their collusion caused the financial chaos of 2007 and 2008 and its messy aftermath, leaving the average citizen burdened with higher public debt, higher taxes, unemployment and austerity programs.
Left to pay for what voters see as the elite's mistakes, public confidence in government has been undermined, and political paralysis has set in as Western leaders struggle to pull governmental levers that are not working effectively.
In contrast, developing nations have been modernizing their institutions and markets, delivering growth rates in the past decade triple those of the West. By 2020, the Centre for Economics and Business Research in London estimates that India and Russia will have joined China and Brazil in the G7 ranks as the biggest economies in the world based on total GDP output, ousting Britain and France. Only the United States, Japan and Germany will be left from the old G7 that dominated the international order since World War II. …”
Read her article in full here: http://news.yahoo.com/insight-west-political-crisis-echoes-1930s-130406733.html
* This part of her text was made bold by Billy T, who notes that fundamentally this firm connection is caused by the huge cost of modern national elections. - I.e. the rich and corporations not only have lobbyist writing the tax laws but also get politicians they like elected by a nation of poorly educated sheep, who vote as the TV tells them too.
BTW, I think her last quoted sentence is 2/3 wrong. US and Germany in 2020 will just be starting to recover from the world's worst ever depression; Probably under the tight control of military governments / or even Marshall law still. Japan which already has China as its main trading partner probably will still be an industrial power and part of the G-7 (if it still exists), but the suppliers of energy, food stocks, and raw materials, like Brazil, Canada, Australia and oil exporters (except Norway and Russia) will be "economic colonies" of Asia, especially China and not in depression.
Last edited by a moderator:
