The Trump Presidency

[Quantum Quack]

There would be no nuclear war with North Korea.

and yet to write about a despot who has orchestrated the mass torture and killing of millions of his own people and state that there would be no nuclear war with North Korea?
You are kidding right?

here's your own quotes to compare:

There are currently over 100,000 people locked up in gulags. That is a conservative estimate. The figures are probably much higher. There are even more locked up in indoctrination camps.

And you are naive enough to believe a tyrant who would do this to his own people, who would see his own uncle murdered and then his corpse set on fire as a way to consolidate his power, a tyrant who developed nuclear weapons and the capability to deliver those weapons to its neighbours, and across the Pacific, Asia, to Europe and the US?

I mean, we know that you do not view human rights as being valid or important. You showed us that when you decided to shovel offal for Burma's genocidal acts towards its minorities.

The irony, of course, is that you are essentially posting these arguments while enjoying the full protection of your human rights.

Who gives a shit about the millions who are suffering, right?

then

There would be no nuclear war with North Korea.

Please explain your confidence?
and why national murder-suicide may not have been a part of his end game agenda?

Note also that there are other more insidious WMD's to consider. Biological to chemical....
Keeping in mind that delivery of biological weapons is not as inhibited as the delivery of nukes.

"Yes... it really pays to talk to the nutter** with the gun if you get the chance to do so"
and the summit was that chance.

 

[Quantum Quack]

Before we get all self-righteous about nuclear apocalypse, we should first account for the fact of how easily Trump gave away this prestige and, furthermore, how naïve simplistic retorts can sound: The diplomacy of waiting on human rights is its own challenge, but it is also, on this occasion, a question arising for the fact of Trump blindly rushing to legitimize the regime.

All those millions and billions of people? They're worth a photo op. That's what this was.

The thing is that you have to presume so much on behalf of this foolishness in order to reach your vantage; it's not an impossible question, but the first valence of response is skepticism.

Why don't we stage photo ops with Daa'ish? It ought to work just as well.

The master dealmaker has yet to get the U.S. anything out of this, but he did get a a photo op.

This whole thing is turning out to be pro wrestling hype.

Personally, I don't see the point; Americans aren't leaving the Korean Peninsula, and neither are we giving up our nuclear weapons.

But, thanks to Donald Trump, our military has buckled before Kim Jong-un's might and respectability. The rest of the world better get something out of this, because naïveté will not excuse Trump's pandering appeasement.

I tend to think that if you study the video evidence of the summit you will notice a few significant changes to Trumps behavior and rhetoric.
His words were heavily scripted and more importantly he was uncharacteristically determined to stay on script. Even when free speaking during the very long press conference I watched, he was playing to a preset script with very little improvisation that Trump has a reputation for.
It all appears to be a part of a greater strategy playing in the background and most likely with Kim's knowledge and private agreement.

It seems that "things" have changed rather dramatically in the last few weeks so much so that calling on the past as an expectation for the present and future events may be way too cynical.
Edit: just reading today's analysis. Perhaps I have posted prematurely.

 

[Quantum Quack]

This I thought was so funny it was worth posting here:

Author unknown

 

[Dr_Toad]

Funny as hell, good job. Though disturbing...

 

[Quantum Quack]

Funny as hell, good job. Though disturbing...

Reminds me of that excellent* net flix series Sense8 strangely enough.
*imho

 

[Bells]

and yet to write about a despot who has orchestrated the mass torture and killing of millions of his own people and state that there would be no nuclear war with North Korea?
You are kidding right?

here's your own quotes to compare:

then


Please explain your confidence?

You either did not bother reading what I actually said, or you choose to be deliberately obtuse.

Kim Jong Un would not launch a nuclear missile because he knew the moment he did, his country and leadership would be annihilated.

There is a reason why Kim Jong Un starves his people, imprisons them in gulags and indoctrination camps. It is to maintain his leadership. There is a reason why he purges anyone he deems to question his authority, even his own family, and has them murdered, because he wants to consolidate and maintain his leadership.

There is only one thing that matters to Kim Jong Un and he has murdered and tortured people to keep it. And that is his leadership. Do you honestly believe that he would throw it all away and leave him with a nation of no one left to lead? Do you honestly believe he would risk his leadership by launching a few nuclear missiles at South Korea, Japan and a few US territories? If he was going to launch nuclear missiles, he would have done so already. Kim Jong Un is not suicidal. He loves power too much.

Keep in mind he was willing to murder his own family members to consolidate said power.

And you think he would risk it all for a few missiles?

Please explain your confidence?

It's not confidence. It is approaching it without revising history.

You should give it a go sometime.

and why national murder-suicide may not have been a part of his end game agenda?

Because if it was, it would have happened already. If suicide was his end goal, he would have done it the moment he could do so or felt capable of doing so.

Note also that there are other more insidious WMD's to consider. Biological to chemical....
Keeping in mind that delivery of biological weapons is not as inhibited as the delivery of nukes.

And again, if he did so, he knows he'd face complete annihilation. He would have nothing left to lead.

The only thing Kim Jong Un wanted was legitimacy and recognition and he just got that in spades and gave a vague promise about denuclearisation that is not actually disarmament or destroying his nuclear stockpile and sites in return. Not only that, he also got a withdrawal of military presence in the region, a presence that was an actual deterrence against their aggression and a promise of protection from the US.

I tend to think that if you study the video evidence of the summit you will notice a few significant changes to Trumps behavior and rhetoric.
His words were heavily scripted and more importantly he was uncharacteristically determined to stay on script. Even when free speaking during the very long press conference I watched, he was playing to a preset script with very little improvisation that Trump has a reputation for.
It all appears to be a part of a greater strategy playing in the background and most likely with Kim's knowledge and private agreement.

It seems that "things" have changed rather dramatically in the last few weeks so much so that calling on the past as an expectation for the present and future events may be way too cynical.
Edit: just reading today's analysis. Perhaps I have posted prematurely.

If the script was to kiss arse with a murderous dictator, then yeah, he stayed on script.

 

[Quantum Quack]

Well Bells this will drive you crazzzzyyy!
Major Melbourne Australia news paper ( just for perspective) Normally typically very critical of the Trump administration.
13/06/2018


hee hee especially the quote being attributed to him....
" Anyone can make war, but only the most courageous can make peace."

a quote from Netflix series Sense8 if I am not mistaken...( re: fictional elections in Kenya)

 

[Quantum Quack]

You either did not bother reading what I actually said, or you choose to be deliberately obtuse.

Kim Jong Un would not launch a nuclear missile because he knew the moment he did, his country and leadership would be annihilated.

There is a reason why Kim Jong Un starves his people, imprisons them in gulags and indoctrination camps. It is to maintain his leadership. There is a reason why he purges anyone he deems to question his authority, even his own family, and has them murdered, because he wants to consolidate and maintain his leadership.

There is only one thing that matters to Kim Jong Un and he has murdered and tortured people to keep it. And that is his leadership. Do you honestly believe that he would throw it all away and leave him with a nation of no one left to lead? Do you honestly believe he would risk his leadership by launching a few nuclear missiles at South Korea, Japan and a few US territories? If he was going to launch nuclear missiles, he would have done so already. Kim Jong Un is not suicidal. He loves power too much.

Keep in mind he was willing to murder his own family members to consolidate said power.

And you think he would risk it all for a few missiles?

I did write national murder suicide for a reason.

• A man who has ample personal resources. 7-10 billion USD is one estimate.
• A man who has demonstrated a total disregard for the well being of the population under his control
• A man who has no compunction when it comes to the slaughter of many in South Korea or any where for that matter
• A man who is only 34 years old, apparently with significant health problems.

...wouldn't be in North Korea if and when he pushes his red button.

so expand your ideas about what you are dealing with perhaps?

It's not confidence. It is approaching it without revising history.

You should give it a go sometime.

How have I revised history?
please explain...

Because if it was, it would have happened already. If suicide was his end goal, he would have done it the moment he could do so or felt capable of doing so.

He has the capacity to generate enormous harm. true. Knowing that he hasn't left the country and pushed his button tells you what about the man?

Could it be that he too is searching for a solution to the predicament he and his nation is in?

Has Trump delivered a potential solution ( similar to the WW2 end of Japanese imperialism) that will allow Kim to avoid leaving his country and pushing that button?
Recall that technically the USA is still at war with North Korea. ( and importantly, not technically but really, NK is still at war with the USA)
I must admit if it is true that the USA is applying a similar strategy to the Japanese one, I gotta tip my hat and say gosh it might actually work.
Kim may under certain circumstances agree if he feels he will be protected and ultimately "profit" from any agreement of a similar caliber to the End of WW2 Japanese. ( re: Emperor Hirohito (29 April 1901 – 7 January 1989) , a person that was involved in much more destruction and atrocity than Kim )
He may agree to end the dynastic regime he inherited and allow his nation to move towards democracy via a unification with the South.
I am sure Kim is aware that in a more globalized world his position is untenable.

I don't for a minute believe that this solution (if?) is Trump's idea however he must be given credit for putting on the show that he has. After the recent G7 disaster, I feared the worse, to be honest but he managed to hold it together sufficiently to become the first POTUS to meet face to face with a NK leader.
Credit where credit due. But it took a team to make it happen not just Trump.

 

[Quantum Quack]

Not only that, he also got a withdrawal of military presence in the region, a presence that was an actual deterrence against their aggression and a promise of protection from the US.

My take:
The thing is, it could be easily stated that the North Korean population was and still is utterly terrified of the USA. By attending the Winter Olympics and sharing common time the North has been able to realize that their fear is not so real as they thought.
Holding military exercises in full view of a terrified audience is plain stupid, hence the summit was initially called off and only back on again when steps were taken to placate those newly aggravated fears.
Kim seemed to come to a realization of just how bad the fear was after solid ongoing dialogue with the South and asked for the summit to go ahead.
Trump's indefinite stay on future military exercises is essential to getting this fear factor under control so that a solution can be managed.

If you were at home and a country at war with you was flying seriously nuclear equipped bombers more or less over your house or your city, how would you feel?

for evidence of incredible fear have a look at this image:


crazy placement and overkill

 

[Schmelzer]

The nukes have never, and do not now, deter US aggression. For starters, they still don't actually exist as combat ready weapons. - let alone in 2005, 2001, and 1994, to name other years in which an American President obtained a promise of denuclearization from the ruler of North Korea. (And those promises were much stronger)

According to my sources, the first successful test was 2006. So, indeed at the dates which you mentioned they did not yet exist as combat ready weapons. To offer to give up a program which has not yet reached results is one thing, to give away really existing weapons is something completely different.

Then, do you really think US politicians are so irresponsible? The problem is not at all if they believe the story that even if NK was able to do some blasts of the size of the Hiroshima bomb (quite safely verified) and to start intercontinental missiles (according to most sources really intercontinental, according to others not really, but the majority seems to think they could reach US territory), they remain unable to combine the two things into a nuclear intercontinental weapon. This combination may be a quite nontrivial job too, but it is quite obviously less problematic in comparison with the two ingredients. The problem is that there is at least a non-negligible probability that NK can combine these two parts too. And in this case, this should be sufficient to deter a more or less responsible politician.

c) He can't go after NK assets without running foul of Chinese interests. d) He can't freeze assets outside the US on his own tic, and nobody else wants the US to pull out of the area - a lot of other countries in China's orbit want the US to remain in force, with NK as justification, for their own reasons.

(d) not really makes sense. If you want, for whatever reasons, that US troops stay where they are, you have to do nothing at all.

I mean, seriously: You want us to believe you believe Donald Trump?

????????? Have I said anything about believing what Trump claims in press conferences or so?

What I think is that Trump's aim is to make peace in Korea, taking home all the US troops, leaving NK with atomic weapons and South Korea alone. This would be in nice agreement with his general ideas. The other countries should care about their security themselves, remember? The only problem is if he would be able to reach this or not, against the deep state, where a sufficiently powerful faction would prefer the actual state of confrontation forever. Because of this, he has to talk about all this nuclear weapons nonsense, as if it would matter. So, if my hypothesis is correct, Trump actually tells and will continue to tell a lot of lies, essentially every word containing "nuclear" in the NK context will be a lie.

The point is that these lies don't matter. Because what is hidden behind the lies is not some horribly evil thing, but peace for Korea.

The nuclear weapons are a fact, as well as no non-suicidal leader would give them away remembering Ghadafi. So, insistence on real denuclearization is simply another word for insisting on the continuation of the confrontation.

 

[Bells]

Well Bells this will drive you crazzzzyyy!

What are you, 5?

Major Melbourne Australia news paper ( just for perspective) Normally typically very critical of the Trump administration.
13/06/2018

Dude, it's the Herald Sun.. A conservative tabloid, owned by Rupert Murdoch, no less. Did you actually expect any different?

It's like saying Fox News is even handed.

hee hee especially the quote being attributed to him....
" Anyone can make war, but only the most courageous can make peace."

a quote from Netflix series Sense8 if I am not mistaken...( re: fictional elections in Kenya)

Ookay.... ?? And?

To the one, I could ask why you are changing the subject, but to the other, I already know the answer to that. It's just what you do.

I did write national murder suicide for a reason.

• A man who has ample personal resources. 7-10 billion USD is one estimate.
• A man who has demonstrated a total disregard for the well being of the population under his control
• A man who has no compunction when it comes to the slaughter of many in South Korea or any where for that matter
• A man who is only 34 years old, apparently with significant health problems.

...wouldn't be in North Korea if and when he pushes his red button.

so expand your ideas about what you are dealing with perhaps?

Or perhaps you can read what I actually wrote instead of again changing the subject and narrative.

I said, clearly:

Kim Jong Un would not launch a nuclear missile because he knew the moment he did, his country and leadership would be annihilated.

There is a reason why Kim Jong Un starves his people, imprisons them in gulags and indoctrination camps. It is to maintain his leadership. There is a reason why he purges anyone he deems to question his authority, even his own family, and has them murdered, because he wants to consolidate and maintain his leadership.

There is only one thing that matters to Kim Jong Un and he has murdered and tortured people to keep it. And that is his leadership. Do you honestly believe that he would throw it all away and leave him with a nation of no one left to lead?​

What part of this did you not understand?

To the point where you decided to post that drivel?

How have I revised history?
please explain...

Let's see:

So before you get all thingo about the morality of dealing with the past deeds of a tyrant you need first to deal with the consequences of what happens to millions, if not billions of people that would be affected by someone throwing a tantrum about human rights at this point in time.

When you completely ignored the current deeds of 3 generations of tyrants and tried to pass it off as something that was well in the past.

I believe the strategy employed by the USA government is very similar to the strategy used upon signing of the unconditional surrender of Japan WW2. Though different in many respects the concept of offering NK USA protection and rebuilding efforts is similar. I will not go into detail to avoid any possibility of prejudicing the immediate future. ( NK do monitor the net be sure of that)
I believe that it has every chance of success as it ultimately provides a win win solution as it did for Japan, if taken up by the Kim dynasty.

When you completely ignored the fact that America dropped nuclear bombs on Japan to actually get them to surrender and tried to pass off what Trump did as being "very similar"...

I see you so nicely failed to deal with the reality of what a nuclear war with NK would mean... well done!
You conveniently forget also that China, Iran and even Russia have an interest, all of which have huge human rights issues and getting worse by the day.

When you tried to change the narrative to suggest that the US had simply given China, Iran and Russia what they wanted when in reality, no one has actually done this, nor has anyone ignored their human rights records in the way Trump did..

All this has already been pointed out and is on record. Did you fail to understand it the first time?

He has the capacity to generate enormous harm. true.

He is already causing enormous harm to 25 million people. Or do they not count for you?

Knowing that he hasn't left the country and pushed his button tells you what about the man?

Read what I said again and then ask yourself if the question you just asked should be taken seriously.

Could it be that he too is searching for a solution to the predicament he and his nation is in?

*Sigh*

He wanted legitimacy and recognition. That was the one thing that his grandfather and father were always denied and refused by the world's community, with the exception of China, no one recognised them with good reason. Trump not only provided him with recognition and legitimacy, he did it on the world stage for a photo op.

The reason his nation is in the predicament it is in is because he, his grandfather and father ensured it would be in that state to allow them to control the populace. Or are you rewriting history again to make it seem as though it happened by accident or chance? They starve people deliberately to ensure compliance. Food, water and energy are used as tools of the state to control and terrify the populace.

Has Trump delivered a potential solution ( similar to the WW2 end of Japanese imperialism) that will allow Kim to avoid leaving his country and pushing that button?

Kim may under certain circumstances agree if he feels he will be protected and ultimately "profit" from any agreement of a similar caliber to the End of WW2 Japanese. ( re: Emperor Hirohito (29 April 1901 – 7 January 1989) , a person that was involved in much more destruction and atrocity than Kim )

Seriously?

You still do not know how the Americans forced the Japanese to surrender? And you think this is similar to the Japanese surrender and the end of WWII?

Trump just gave Kim what he wanted, with the added bonus of protection from America, as well as a reduction of military presence in area (which also benefits China), which leaves South Korea and Japan in an even more tenuous situation. And he gave Kim Jong Un that without even conferring with his own military or South Korea.

He may agree to end the dynastic regime he inherited and allow his nation to move towards democracy via a unification with the South.
I am sure Kim is aware that in a more globalized world his position is untenable.

You actually think Kim Jong Un wants a democracy? And you think that he wants his country to be more involved with the world and more globalised?

I don't even have the energy to laugh myself senseless anymore.

I don't for a minute believe that this solution (if?) is Trump's idea however he must be given credit for putting on the show that he has. After the recent G7 disaster, I feared the worse, to be honest but he managed to hold it together sufficiently to become the first POTUS to meet face to face with a NK leader.
Credit where credit due. But it took a team to make it happen not just Trump.

Yeah, credit to the dude who has done what every single American President has steadfastly refused to do because to do it would provide legitimacy to a murderous despot and his regime.

 

[Quantum Quack]

What are you, 5?

abusive. wanting a fight... sorry I don't.

Dude, it's the Herald Sun.. A conservative tabloid, owned by Rupert Murdoch, no less. Did you actually expect any different?

It's like saying Fox News is even handed.

abusive... which corner do you want? Gloves on or off?

Ookay.... ?? And?

To the one, I could ask why you are changing the subject, but to the other, I already know the answer to that. It's just what you do.

Abusive. Undeserving of a proper response

Or perhaps you can read what I actually wrote instead of again changing the subject and narrative.

I said, clearly:

Kim Jong Un would not launch a nuclear missile because he knew the moment he did, his country and leadership would be annihilated.

There is a reason why Kim Jong Un starves his people, imprisons them in gulags and indoctrination camps. It is to maintain his leadership. There is a reason why he purges anyone he deems to question his authority, even his own family, and has them murdered, because he wants to consolidate and maintain his leadership.

There is only one thing that matters to Kim Jong Un and he has murdered and tortured people to keep it. And that is his leadership. Do you honestly believe that he would throw it all away and leave him with a nation of no one left to lead?​

What part of this did you not understand?

abusive. taking my post out of context. not deserving of a proper response.

To the point where you decided to post that drivel?

abusive... does not deserve any respect.

Let's see:


When you completely ignored the current deeds of 3 generations of tyrants and tried to pass it off as something that was well in the past.
abusive ...

When you completely ignored the fact that America dropped nuclear bombs on Japan to actually get them to surrender and tried to pass off what Trump did as being "very similar"...

abusive ...

When you tried to change the narrative to suggest that the US had simply given China, Iran and Russia what they wanted when in reality, no one has actually done this, nor has anyone ignored their human rights records in the way Trump did..

Abusive...
All this has already been pointed out and is on record. Did you fail to understand it the first time?

abusive....

He is already causing enormous harm to 25 million people. Or do they not count for you?

abusive... you really do want a fight dont you?


'

Read what I said again and then ask yourself if the question you just asked should be taken seriously.

not worth reading as it is constantly abusive...

'

*Sigh*

your standard arrogance is showing Bells... you use this technique very often... "sad"

He wanted legitimacy and recognition. That was the one thing that his grandfather and father were always denied and refused by the world's community, with the exception of China, no one recognised them with good reason. Trump not only provided him with recognition and legitimacy, he did it on the world stage for a photo op.

having a nuke on a ICBM is plenty of recognition

The reason his nation is in the predicament it is in is because he, his grandfather and father ensured it would be in that state to allow them to control the populace. Or are you rewriting history again to make it seem as though it happened by accident or chance? They starve people deliberately to ensure compliance. Food, water and energy are used as tools of the state to control and terrify the populace.

abusive... not worth responding

Seriously?

You still do not know how the Americans forced the Japanese to surrender? And you think this is similar to the Japanese surrender and the end of WWII?

Abusive.. I know all too well..that you want to fight...

Trump just gave Kim what he wanted, with the added bonus of protection from America, as well as a reduction of military presence in area (which also benefits China), which leaves South Korea and Japan in an even more tenuous situation. And he gave Kim Jong Un that without even conferring with his own military or South Korea.

sure he did....

You actually think Kim Jong Un wants a democracy? And you think that he wants his country to be more involved with the world and more globalised?

actually yes I do... with good reason, which I am not going to discuss with an abusive poster such as yourself.

I don't even have the energy to laugh myself senseless anymore.

for abusive people fatigue is always a problem....

Yeah, credit to the dude who has done what every single American President has steadfastly refused to do because to do it would provide legitimacy to a murderous despot and his regime.

what happened to make you so abusive Bells?
I am sure there are many here at sciforums that would like to know why you are angry with yourself.

 

[Bells]

My take:
The thing is, it could be easily stated that the North Korean population was and still is utterly terrified of the USA. By attending the Winter Olympics and sharing common time the North has been able to realize that their fear is not so real as they thought.

So essentially, your take is pixies and fairy dust...

Holding military exercises in full view of a terrified audience is plain stupid, hence the summit was initially called off and only back on again when steps were taken to placate those newly aggravated fears.

Oh, hey look! You still aren't done revising history....

Kim seemed to come to a realization of just how bad the fear was after solid ongoing dialogue with the South and asked for the summit to go ahead.
Trump's indefinite stay on future military exercises is essential to getting this fear factor under control so that a solution can be managed.

How do you come up with this level of bullshit?

The reasons for why the summit was initially canceled were widely reported. Did you not bother reading about it? Or do you simply prefer to let your imagination run wild and tell yourself that what you see in your head is the truth?

If you were at home and a country at war with you was flying seriously nuclear equipped bombers more or less over your house or your city, how would you feel?

Wait..

You think when the US and South Korea stage their training exercises, they fly bombers over North Korea?

for evidence of incredible fear have a look at this image:

That is how they conduct their military exercises...

what happened to make you so abusive Bells?
I am sure there are many here at sciforums that would like to know why you are angry with yourself.

Abusive?

You consider that abusive?

You spent a few pages now rewriting history to suit a narrative that is entirely of your own invention. You are either doing this to troll, or because there is something seriously wrong enough with you to believe in a reality of your own invention.

That was not abusive, QQ. That was me being fed up.

 

[Quantum Quack]

You spent a few pages now rewriting history to suit a narrative that is entirely of your own invention. You are either doing this to troll, or because there is something seriously wrong enough with you to believe in a reality of your own invention.

That was not abusive, QQ. That was me being fed up.

ok .. here it comes...you are so predictable.. you know that...?

when you are finished would you like to actually discuss something?

 

[Bells]

ok .. here it comes...you are so predictable.. you know that...?

when you are finished would you like to actually discuss something?

Why do you keep trying to change the subject?

A word of advice, you should read up on history before making ridiculous assertions and declarations of fact.

 

[Quantum Quack]

Opinion:
From the North Korean perspective one could imagine they consider them selves to be at war with a global superpower.
One that has enough firepower to render them all to dust and ashes. Hold military exercises annually reinforces their fear of invasion and annihilation. Of course the regime no matter how nasty it is, is justified in the eyes of the people who fear such aggression if that regime promises to protect them. In that sense the Korean dilemma is a creation of the USA.
Until that fear is dealt with and brought back to more realistic levels this Korean dilemma will go on with out end.
At this point in time, suspending indefinitely the military exercise, as being too provocative, is a wise move.

 

[Quantum Quack]

Why do you keep trying to change the subject?

A word of advice, you should read up on history before making ridiculous assertions and declarations of fact.

you really can't help it can you?
You can't abuse people and then expect any worth while discussion...

 

[Dr_Toad]

Sure you can: "Your name is Toby!"

 

[Schmelzer]

When you completely ignored the current deeds of 3 generations of tyrants and tried to pass it off as something that was well in the past.

So the deeds of Kim Jong Un's father and his grandfather are important for the actual political decisions?

When you completely ignored the fact that America dropped nuclear bombs on Japan to actually get them to surrender and tried to pass off what Trump did as being "very similar"...

The only fact which is relevant in the context of QQ's argument is that the US did not insist on unconditional surrender (as they insisted for Germany), but accepted conditional surrender, with the condition that the emperor remained in power.

Trump just gave Kim what he wanted, with the added bonus of protection from America, as well as a reduction of military presence in area (which also benefits China), which leaves South Korea and Japan in an even more tenuous situation. And he gave Kim Jong Un that without even conferring with his own military or South Korea.

You object that a politician makes a step toward peace without asking the military?

The only thing Kim Jong Un wanted was legitimacy and recognition

A quite popular thing in the US propaganda myths. All their enemies are mainly interested in America legitimizing them.

 

[iceaura]

The problem is that there is at least a non-negligible probability that NK can combine these two parts too. And in this case, this should be sufficient to deter a more or less responsible politician.

The US has been successfully deterred from invading NK for at least fifty years, without nuclear weapons being the deterrent.
What they have been, all that time, is a negotiating chip for obtaining status and relief.

(d) not really makes sense. If you want, for whatever reasons, that US troops stay where they are, you have to do nothing at all.

The status quo has to be maintained. It won't last without support - it's expensive.

What I think is that Trump's aim is to make peace in Korea, taking home all the US troops, leaving NK with atomic weapons and South Korea alone. This would be in nice agreement with his general ideas.

You still have no clue about that guy, apparently.

Why would any US Republican care about any of that? Trump, at any rate, has no visible "aims" or "general ideas" of that kind (or any such kind) - and there's no visible reason you would think he had any (from where do you think you get your presumptions about Trump?).

Meanwhile, a nuclear NK would be a royal pain for Russia and China, while remaining a serious risk to a non-nuclear SK and Japan. Japan is almost certainly closer to an actual nuclear arsenal than NK, and SK can get nukes or an allied umbrella from three or four sources at need.

The point is that these lies don't matter. Because what is hidden behind the lies is not some horribly evil thing, but peace for Korea.

A nuclear NK is not a peaceful NK. A peaceful NK is another matter entirely. So is an NK that is not an overgrown concentration camp and horrorshow, and one that does not wish to expand and need to expand to survive. The biggest threat in the region has always been conventional war, and the necessary deterrence has been of NK as well as the US (and China). Losing the deterrence of NK is a big risk for its neighbors.

The visible lesson from the NK summit is that the US President can be bought and played - and it's not that expensive or difficult, at least not for an autocrat without accountability to their citizens.