when the boom and bust cycle occurs here between 2017-2019.
The Etp Model Has Been Empirically Confirmed
- Thread starter Futilitist
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So are you suggesting that most of the frackers will go out of business before the price of oil rises? Or are you suggesting that demand will increase soon?
---Futilitist
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Yes. The Etp model accounts for the total energy used in the production, refining, and distribution of oil. What the model shows is that entropy in the oil production process is rising *WAY* too fast to be offset by any efficiency gains.
The reason the frackers are still fracking has more to do with open lines of credit than efficiency gains. They are producing debt, not energy.
---Futilitist
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Ophiolite
Valued Senior Member
Nevertheless, while the current frackers may go out of business the contractors who have all the equipment and the know how will remain in business and be ready to resume - at far lower costs - when the next group of investors operators turn up. You appear to be oblivious to this. Or at least your model is.
You appear to be delusional. The economy is about to implode.
It appears that you are at least acknowledging that the current frackers will have to go out of business in order for production to fall so prices can rise. Points for that. But you go on to rhetorically create a supposed second layer of "contractors who have all the equipment and the know how" (also known as "frackers") who will somehow "remain in business and be ready to resume". How in the world would it be possible for them to remain in the fracking business without any income, waiting for the next group of suckers to turn up?
"Alas, the future is arriving because global growth is grinding to a halt."
~David Stockman
---Futilitist
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Ophiolite
Valued Senior Member
Look beyond your mirror. You have been predicting doom and destruction for several years. Fortunately, we are still waiting.
No. I am not acknowledging that. Prices will likely rise for a combination of reasons, of which a continued curtailment of fracking activity will be one. But it will be only one.
It would be useful if you knew something about the industry you have chosen to make predictions about. Who do you think these frackers actually are? Do you imagine they own drilling rigs, do you believe they produce drilling fluid and own drill string and downhole motors, do you think they manufacture and operate the pumping equipment that does the actual fracking, do you envisage that they directly employ the various specialists required to operate this array of technology?
It seems like you do, else you would not have asked such a naive question. No, I don't expect companies like Halliburton, or Schlumberger, or NOV, or Weatherford, or Noble Drilling to go out of business. They have other revenue than just fracking revenue. And they have slashed their operating costs to get through this downturn.
So, as I said, you appear to be oblivious to what is actually at work in the industry.
I expect the frackers to go out of business in this sense. Established operators (oil companies to you Futilist) will discontinue operations, lay off staff and wait for the price to rise. Speculators who got into the business when oil was over $100, will hunker down, shut in their wells and wait for the price to rise. Only those who made the investments late and have had no return are now in serious trouble.
Not for much longer.
That is pretty vague.
Whatever. You are wearing rose colored glasses, John.
By the way, while all of this interesting and enlightening conversation has been taking place here, in the real world WTIC just topped 46 dollars a barrel and the DOW, though showing some weakness today, was very recently as high as 18167. Yet no one here has said a word about all of this. Why isn't anyone gloating about how high oil prices and the stock market have gone? Are you afraid to say something because you think they might crash again soon?
---Futilitist
Ophiolite
Valued Senior Member
I take the "whatever" as tacit acknowledgement that you were completely ignorant of the manner in which oil and gas companies go about exploiting hydrocarbons. And yet you presume to make predictions in relation to that market. Its analogous to an ornithologist discussing the ethology of birds without being aware that they lay eggs.
no-- i am suggesting that you are simply clueless to any of this and you are simply JUST spewing and nothing more. the funny thing about this(between my predictions and this conversation) since i stepped in it is that oil price are at exactly the price range where i said it was going to be in at the exact time frame i said it will be in-- why is that ?So are you suggesting that most of the frackers will go out of business before the price of oil rises? Or are you suggesting that demand will increase soon?
---Futilitist
Again, whatever.
Take that any way you want, John. You are not an oil and gas expert. You are in no position to judge.
This thread is on page 73. You just got here. Your comments so far have been pretty useless. Mostly just pompous word games. Do you have anything serious to say?
Let's try this:
I think the economy is about to decline very sharply. Do you disagree?
---Futilitist
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Ophiolite
Valued Senior Member
Derisive snort. I entered the oil and gas industry in 1971. I am still here. I have witnessed multiple price crashes and subsequent booms. I have taken a considerable interest in the causes of each. I have seen, on the exploration and production side of the industry truly revolutionary developments and have played a part in creating some of those revolutions. I am in a position to judge.
It may surprise you to learn that I figured out how to view the earlier pages in the thread. Did you know you can do that?
Yours have not been pretty, but arguably they have been useless.
I adjust to the tone of my protagonist.
1. You have insufficient knowledge of the mechanics of hydrocarbon exploration and production. This impacts seriously on the relevance of the conclusions you believe you have justified.
2. Your posting style relies heavily on bluster, bombast and belligerence. If what your saying is true, then you need to find a more persuasive way of saying it.
3. You seem to have delusions of adequacy.
Yes.
Your question is too vague to answer.
What do you mean by decline? A recession? A depression? A collapse of industrial civilization? Be specific.
What do you mean by "about"? Next week? Next month? Next year? Next decade? Be specific.
Please indicate if your answer is a joke or serious.
Ophiolite
Valued Senior Member
Good points. I interpreted the probable answers based upon normal word usage, fine tuned by Futilist's style. This led me believe he meant something between a depression and the collapse of industrial civilisation within the next couple of years. I shall be interested in how he responds to your request.
Post 69 made 6 January 2013 at http://www.sciforums.com/threads/apocalypse-soon. 133084/page-4#post-3032857
"We have reached the end of economic growth. Collapse is next. ...Futilitist"
That was because oil prices would continually rise so rapidly with all the "easy oil" gone that society would collapse (necessary energy unafordable).
Post 1451 made 28 April 2016 less than a page back
I predict you will continue with, ill defined, vague predictions even when they contradict your earlier predictions of rapid oil price rise.
"We have reached the end of economic growth. Collapse is next. ...Futilitist"
That was because oil prices would continually rise so rapidly with all the "easy oil" gone that society would collapse (necessary energy unafordable).
Post 1451 made 28 April 2016 less than a page back
Since you made same prediction 3 years, 4 months earlier are we to conclude this sharp decline is more than 3 years into the future still? Or that "very sharply" is just a larger than usual fluctuation in the DOW average? Say back to 1700 again.... I think the economy is about to decline very sharply. ...Futilitist
I predict you will continue with, ill defined, vague predictions even when they contradict your earlier predictions of rapid oil price rise.
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I notice you didn't bother to specify what your job in the oil and gas industry actually is. Are you a physicist? Are you a shill?
I am sorry you don't like my style. I don't like yours either.
So far, all you have done is attack me personally, but you haven't said anything about the Etp model. This thread is about that model. When I mentioned that you have yet to say anything serious, that is what I was referring to.
Thank you for a definitive answer to my simple question. No one else seems to have understood it.
It is interesting that you so were able to easily understand my simple question. It is as if everyone else is pretending not to understand just to be intentionally vexatious, which is also known as trolling.
---Futilitist
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Ophiolite
Valued Senior Member
If I were a shill, is it likely I would admit to it?
My specific job within the industry is not relevant and is a private matter.
If I were a physicist would I post on multiple forums in many posts that my knowledge of physics is abysmal?
Your personal ignorance of the mechanics of the oil industry raises serious questions about your insights into the industry.
Your question was vague and ambiguous. I am skillful at interpreting vague and ambiguous statements and questions. I am not surprised that others asked for clarification. It was reasonable for them to do so.
No.
Sure, I guess, but your answer seems very evasive. What are you hiding?
Since you are not attempting to cover up your lack of physics knowledge, I can only assume that you must have some menial, low level job that you are embarrassed to reveal. Or you are a shill.Why did you suddenly decide to join this conversation, shill?
You showed up right when Russ_Watters failed and bailed again. Like tag team wrestling. What a weird coincidence.
Are you the big guns?
So you don't really have enough expertise to comment on the Etp model, do you?
The Etp model is a physics based model of the total energy used world-wide in the production, refining, and distribution of oil. It directly measures the rate of entropy production in the entire petroleum production system. The model is an application of the Entropy Rate Balance Equation for Control Volumes, which is a second law statement. Since the price of oil is directly related to the energy used to produce it, the Etp model is the most accurate oil price forecasting tool ever devised.
Perhaps you should take some time to actually try to understand the Etp model, John. If you have any serious questions about the model, I'll be happy to answer them.
---Futilitist
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except for one of the algos has collapsed in its function from the beginning of its use(which means that it cannot predict accurately due to the model needing all algos to function and also function properly) and the fact that this ETP model is obviously inaccurate(according to its own output graph) in this current moment, correct?
No. We have covered this before. Since the 2012 crossover event, the Etp model can only forecast the yearly average MAXIMUM oil price (about 66 dollars a barrel for 2016). Since oil is currently below 66 dollars a barrel, the Etp model is still accurate. But if, somehow, oil does manage to average more than about 66 dollars a barrel this year, then you can claim the model is inaccurate. Until then, the model is accurate. Do you understand?
The graph I presented clearly says Etp Maximum Price Curve, in red. See?
---Futilitist
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