The Etp Model Has Been Empirically Confirmed

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The Etp model doesn't make sense to you in the first place because you are in denial.

You don't understand the Etp model. You fear what it forecasts.

Your ignorance + Your fear = Your certainty that the Etp model must be false

Science is all about understanding the world by deriving simple and elegant explanations for complex phenomena.

$$E=mc^2$$

Cut me real deep there. B-)


But anyway, yes, you can predict the apocalypse with math and physics. However, you need something... Like... Evidence... Say, some huge meteor on a collision course with Earth. The world economy lacks such a meteor. (Hint: the stock market is not a science.)
 
Beer w/Straw said:
But anyway, yes, you can predict the apocalypse with math and physics. However, you need something... Like... Evidence... Say, some huge meteor on a collision course with Earth. The world economy lacks such a meteor.
Oil supplies about 38% of total energy and about 90% of transportation fuel. This will be gone in about 5.5 years, with no viable replacement. That is a meteor for the world economy.

So, after 44 pages, what have we learned so far?
That the Etp model is very likely valid and this so called forum is certainly a fraud.



---Futilitist:cool:
 
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Wow. You are super confused on so many levels.
You are probably right. A second check showed the price of your junk paper runs for 69 bucks.

You should have read the thread.
Once I saw the moronic OP I had no desire to wade through it. But I did give you a fair chance to state your rationale for jumping from economics to thermo and you refused to do so. After that, it became apparent you are just here to peddle junk paper.

Speaking of Benny Hill, you don't know how to construct an argument.
Speaking of Benny Hill, the disconnect between "Benny Hill" and "argument" is analogous to your pseudo thesis: there is no connection between economic modelling and thermo.

I am not BWHill.
Really?

It may be that you already erased the empirical evidence that you are in all probability the same damn fool. Because when I first went to check on this person you claim to cite (without giving any links, or any credible evidence as to BW Hill's credentials) I happened to notice that on one of the web pages, BW Hill is described as having a Master's Degree in Mining & Manufacturing Engineering, which (correct me if I am wrong) so far only connects to you (i.e., no other evidence has been entered into the record to lead us to any other conclusion). Pretty damning indeed.

So to hell with full disclosure? If you were not guilty of this you would have no reason to be defensive. No matter, the fraud is obvious enough in the huge technical blunder you have made.


I am not wellwisher.
Maybe not. But if you were, you would have to deny it. No matter, your nonsense is "of the school of wellwisher" which is even worse. (Believing we solve problems like wellwisher does is worse than wellwisher believing he's right)

You are full of shit.
Even if I were, at least I am not selling it here on this board.

The Etp model is a thermodynamic model of the life cycle of the oil production process. It is not an economic model.
Really? So you are not making any claims about the cost of production?

You have lost the bet! :oops:

I am not a dirty rotten liar or a fraud. You, sir, owe me an apology.
I owe you nothing. You owe the readers a sincere basis for intelligent discussion. This is just a venue for you to bicker, peddle junk, and possibly more heinous stuff.

Short answer: You are a troll.
Even if that were true, at least I am not guilty of posting the OP and the crap at the so-called Hill's Group.

Longer answer: This is an amazing act of professional tag team wrestling desperation. No one can put forth a decent argument against the Etp model. So they send in the clown. This forum is a joke. o_O
Bullshit. There is no such thing as an Etp model. You are taking some very old concepts (peak oil, the IEA - formed during oil crisis of the early 70s) and stuffing them into the moronic claim that everything they were talking about then fits under the umbrella of a few formulas from thermo.

This is why you I say you are establishing yourself as a liar.

The only question that remains is this - what is this supposed to mean:

A reserve status report
Report# HC3 - 433

???
Because this is the mark of a fraudster - assigning fake names and numbers to trash not even properly called "a report". Report to who? Nobody? Funded by who? Probably nobody, except no wonder if some energy related company is paying you something anyway. Referenced by who? Nobody. Published where? Nowhere. Endorsed where? Nowhere. No academic or industrial entity would dare damage its reputation by giving any credibility to this.

Warning, folks - we are dealing with imposters.
 
Once I saw the moronic OP I had no desire to wade through it.
Exactly. You are just like Beer w/Straw. Your mind is made up before you even start. That is what it means to be closed minded.

Maybe not. But if you were (wellwisher), you would have to deny it.
Yeah, that's real open minded of you. I am innocent until proven guilty, you jerk. By your logic, everyone you accuse of being wellwisher, must be wellwisher, because denying it would prove it was true. This is like a witch trial!

And wellwisher is also BWHill is also Futilitist! Ha ha. You are some kind of nutty conspiracy theorist. :confused:

Bullshit. There is no such thing as an Etp model.
Yes there is. I have a copy of the report.

Here are some screen captures I just made especially for you:

Etp%20Aqueous%20proof%201_zpseg8q5z0d.jpg


Etp%20Aqueous%20proof%202_zps7oh1fmsa.jpg


Etp%20Aqueous%20proof%203_zpsywxntddo.jpg


Etp%20Aqueous%20proof%204_zpskc5pstdy.jpg


As you can clearly see, it is *WAY* over your head.

I happened to notice that on one of the web pages, BW Hill is described as having a Master's Degree in Mining & Manufacturing Engineering, which (correct me if I am wrong) so far only connects to you (i.e., no other evidence has been entered into the record to lead us to any other conclusion). Pretty damning indeed.
You are wrong.

How does it connect to me? I never claimed to have a Master's Degree in Mining & Manufacturing Engineering. Where the hell did you get that idea?

You are trolling.

I want my apology now.



---Futilitist:cool:
 
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This thread is to seriously discuss the Etp model. Please stop trolling. Thank you.



---Futilitist:cool:
 
But you're the only person taking your graph seriously.
And you think by creating the false impression that the Etp model is something to make fun of, you can somehow win the debate. That is your choice. In a real, serious scientific debate, that sort of thing is seen as cheating. You aren't fooling anyone. You just make yourself appear foolish.

Also, I am not the only person here who takes the Etp model seriously. Kondratieff also takes it seriously. And perhaps some readers do as well.

And this forum is not the world. The majority views expressed here are not representative of the views of most rational humans. A sciforums.com consensus is totally meaningless (other than proving that there is a very strong right wing BAU bias here). In the real world, the Etp model is taken very seriously by a great many intelligent people who are able to handle the difficult truth of our current dilemma.

Re: The Etp Model, Q & A
by Numbersman » Tue 18 Nov 2014, 21:08:19
Short, thank you for the detailed response. I feel that excitement that I get anytime I realize there is a whole nother way of looking at things! I look forward to reading your report abstract in detail and trying to fully grok what you are explaining.


I guess I had given up on macro economics, thinking that military power supports a dollar standard supports a consumption economy. And with a consumption economy and printing press, the dollars haven't balanced or constrained us for quite some time.

Again, I look forward to thinking more about your points and trying to grok it.

Re: The Etp Model, Q & A
by Quinny » Wed 19 Nov 2014, 01:33:20
First thanks for starting the thread and putting the ETP model forward. I personally have not come across it before and the logic seems sound to me.


Re: The Etp Model, Q & A
by AugustusGloopius » Wed 19 Nov 2014, 11:36:55
Thanks for the answers! Concerning Quinny's query and your response, my fear precisely lies in the fact that your maximum affordable price (for the end user) necessarily implies that massive disconnects must happen to accommodate energy/exergy leaving the system by physical law. More specifically, there is a mountain of claims on the future and its energy as seen by global debt levels, that are predicated on more energy entering the system. The opposite will happen, leaving claims high and dry. In your webpage, you say the reaction to this energy tide going out is beyond the scope of your report, which is very understandable.


Re: The Etp Model, Q & A
by Roxy » Thu 20 Nov 2014, 19:31:20
Hi Short,


I really enjoy reading your comments on this site as well as your report. I think I'm slowly coming around to understanding your theory.

Re: The Etp Model, Q & A
by Revi » Thu 17 Sep 2015, 19:24:52
Thanks. It helps to see the reality of the situation, even if it's dire.


Everyone else sees how ridiculous it is.
No. Not everyone sees it the way you do, okay?

You think it is ridiculous. You have said so over and over. I get it. The readers get it.

Beyond all the childish bullshit, a serious discussion would involve some explanation of why you think the Etp model is worthy of derision. Otherwise, you have failed to make any argument at all. You have the cart before the horse. First prove that the Etp model is somehow worthy of derision, then you can make fun of it.

Good luck.



---Futilitist:cool:
 
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Here is another recent post by BWHill concerning the latest news that it is likely we have reached the all liquids peak:

http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/ ... ction.html

Re: The Etp Model, Q & A

by shortonoil » Thu 17 Sep 2015, 14:09:36
Revi said:

"I think the way it's going to happen is a big recession, which will be blamed for the lack of demand."

A big deflationary recession (depression) is most likely already baked into the cake. China's demand for commodities has collapsed, and the FED didn't raise rates today. More than half of the world's Sovereign debt is now paying negative interest rates. It appears, however, that the world has already reached Peak All Liquids (see my previous post) so demand must decline if the product is not being produced.

At $46/ barrel it is not likely that anyone will be putting money into future production. Even if there is some relief in prices it will not be enough to restart E&P:

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_022.htm

The long term trend for prices is downward. Economists, and their ilk may attempt to blame the recession for the lack of demand, but common sense has never been their strong suite. The word "depletion" never got into their dictionary, and depletion of a irreplaceable commodity is what we are seeing.

----------------

Just some more food for thought. Bon appetite. :)



---Futilitist:cool:
 
Exactly. You are just like Beer w/Straw. Your mind is made up before you even start. That is what it means to be closed minded.

I think you had made up your mind before even starting this thread. That you never intended a discussion but only wanted to preach.
 
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At $46/ barrel it is not likely that anyone will be putting money into future production. Even if there is some relief in prices it will not be enough to restart E&P:
How stupid is that? He doesn't think prices will go back up? What an idiot. The price of oil will go back up and more exploration and production will occur.
 
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