Superstition game: Prophecy & Prediction

Will August 27 bring the God of War?

  • Yes

    Votes: 1 10.0%

  • No

    Votes: 9 90.0%
  • Total voters
    10
Re: from "Astrology is total Gibberish, right?"

Originally posted by spookz
an example of skeptics resorting to bogus shit to debunk and ridicule.
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Aw spookz, I thought you'd know me better than that by now.

Correlation does not imply causation; such an assumption is a Logical fallacy, a false categorical syllogism.
http://www.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logical_fallacy/Correlation_implies_causation

Unfortunately, I wasn't able to come up with the particular numbers I was referencing (which I recalled from statistics class). A google search turned up many hits that used the same example but none that supplied the actual statistics. Regardless, the point stands regarding the logical fallacy.

Originally posted by spookz
(1) Planets effect the solar cycle in specific ways.
(2) The solar cycle effects the geomagnetic field.
(3) The geomagnetic field affects life on Earth in certain observed ways.
(4) Specifically, many species, including man, can be influenced by particular states of the geomagnetic field.
(5) The particular influences appear to correlate with the planetary positions.
(6) I propose that the behavior of the fetus at the time of birth is linked to the cycles within the geomagnetic field, which in turn are influenced by the solar cycle and positions of the planets. Resonance is the phenomenon by which the fetus is phase locked to specific cycles.
...
There is a growing body of evidence that changes in geomagnetic field affect biological systems. In particular, homing pigeons and other migratory creatures who use the earth magnetic field as their guidance. Other studies indicate that physically stressed human biological systems may respond to the minute but measurable fluctuations of the geomagnetic field.
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You'll note that in my first post I said, "Celestial events have no impact upon anything but the superstitious imaginations of mankind, except in the rare instances where they physically affect the Earth."

Now you might address my use of the word "rare" (the Sun and the Moon have a constant significant effect upon the Earth; daylight, tides, etc.) However, I did indeed take into account that certain celestial events have a physical affect upon the Earth and therefore may sometimes be a factor in a change in human behavior. Though in such events as Mars being a few millions miles closer to us than it has been for 60,000 years, one would be hard pressed to demonstrate any significant changes. The gravitational effect of such a change in proximity is negligible at best and hardly supports the notion that it might have some drastic effect upon our behavior.

"While Mars' gravitational pull on the Earth is 40 times greater than it is when the planet lies at its farthest, it’s 125 trillion times less than the gravitational effect on the Earth by you!" http://www.skyscapes.com/Mars.htm

And there was this in the most impressive of your links (emphasis mine), "Possible effects of the doze and time delay reaction (3) are shown. Analysis of the obtained results does not give evidence that geomagnetic activity influences directly the human organism, because the mechanism of this impact has not been discovered yet."
http://pgi.kolasc.net.ru/Seminar/2002/Proceeding/biosphere/Chernoussl_Antonenko.pdf

Whoops, there goes the correlation does not imply causation issue again.

The fact remains that such influences do not seem to cause any statistically significant effect (other than the obvious, such as circadian rhythms which I did reference) in the behavior of human populations. Little to no statistical correlation can be found for lunar, planetary or stellar effects, despite the depictions as to how such might occur. The most likely reason, taking into account that animals do have certain sensitivities to such things as the magnetic field, is that other conditions have a far greater affect and drown out the 'noise' of these lesser ones. Of course, if you can supply the significant studies that do imply such a correlation I'd be happy to reconsider. Frankly I was surprised that there was little correlation with the lunar cycle as it has such an impressive effect upon the Earth itself.

I don't generally pull things out of my ass spookz, I thought you'd know that by now. And I am more than willing to be corrected when I am mistaken.

~Raithere
 
Re: Re: Re: The Planet Mars is too close!

Originally posted by Medicine*Woman
But that night and the next day they acted so peculiar. They seem to be back to normal now, back to their quiet and gentle behavior, but this episode was most strange.
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Thanks, its an interesting story in any case and I'm glad your beasts (that's what we call ours) are behaving now. The problem, however, is that you're jumping to conclusions by assuming the cause was Mars. Mine set off too every once in a while, of course, and every so often I find a dead rabbit or bird in the back-yard the next day.

When I was in the USAF and on call in Labor & Delivery, every full moon we'd have an abundance of women in labor! Sometimes during a full moon, I'd have to help out in the ER suturing up all kinds of lacerations.
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During a full moon, I get sluggish and drowsy. During a new moon, I get energetic and chipper. It has something to do with the water content of our bodies like the pull of the tides. Women commit more heinous crimes when they are on their menses during a full moon. I read these statistics somewhere. I think it was in NY. This is enough scientific facts for me!
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One of the issues to distinguish is a physical causation from a psychological influence. Certainly the brightness of the full (or nearly full) moon in the sky has a significant psychological effect. I know that the full moon shining in my window tends to make it more difficult for me to sleep. This, however, is a psychological affect, not a physical one. This is why one needs to be particularly careful when attempting to discern causality from correlation.

~Raithere
 
Re: Re: from "Astrology is total Gibberish, right?"

Aw spookz, I thought you'd know me better than that by now.

i agree with you raith however to pull out ice cream as an example is just plain silly. that stat appears famous because it is an extreme example. we could drag out the consumption of iced drinks and find a correlation with criminal behaviour. i bet we could even randomly make associations and find some correlation. shit like this serves no purpose except to ridicule. well.. in my opinion anyway

Regardless, the point stands regarding the logical fallacy.

yes it does

You'll note that in my first post I said, "Celestial events have no impact upon anything but the superstitious imaginations of mankind, except in the rare instances where they physically affect the Earth."

sure. i am also sure that there could be plenty of subtle instances of events of which we are not aware of yet. i leave the door open (and my mind)

Though in such events as Mars being a few millions miles closer to us than it has been for 60,000 years, one would be hard pressed to demonstrate any significant changes.

sure. attempts to demonstrate probably would'nt even get off the ground due to the crackpot factor

The gravitational effect of such a change in proximity is negligible at best and hardly supports the notion that it might have some drastic effect upon our behavior.

drastic? a rather strong word, wouldnt you say? i am at best looking for effects that one can, so to speak, "shrug off"

"While Mars' gravitational pull on the Earth is 40 times greater than it is when the planet lies at its farthest, it’s 125 trillion times less than the gravitational effect on the Earth by you!" http://www.skyscapes.com/Mars.htm

mars, venus.... all the celestial bodies, background radiation...blah

And there was this in the most impressive of your links (emphasis mine), "Possible effects of the doze and time delay reaction (3) are shown. Analysis of the obtained results does not give evidence that geomagnetic activity influences directly the human organism, because the mechanism of this impact has not been discovered yet."
http://pgi.kolasc.net.ru/Seminar/2002/Proceeding/biosphere/Chernoussl_Antonenko.pdf

heh heh
lemme have a crack at the emphasis...."Possible effects of the doze and time delay reaction (3) are shown. Analysis of the obtained results does not give evidence that geomagnetic activity influences directly the human organism, because the mechanism of this impact has not been discovered yet."

Of course, if you can supply the significant studies that do imply such a correlation I'd be happy to reconsider. Frankly I was surprised that there was little correlation with the lunar cycle as it has such an impressive effect upon the Earth itself.

i am sure there are brave and hardy souls attempting such things as we speak. i gotta go back over the links, there should have been something there (however tenuous) or i wouldnt have posted em

I don't generally pull things out of my ass spookz, I thought you'd know that by now. And I am more than willing to be corrected when I am mistaken.

nothing but the utmost respect
:)
 
Originally posted by spookz
i agree with you raith however to pull out ice cream as an example is just plain silly
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It's an oft used example of the difference between correlation and causality. It's selected as an example because not only is the correlation true the lack of causation is so obvious and silly that it makes the error plain. I wasn't trying to ridicule anyone... I generally save that for people who truly deserve it.

Let me put it this way. I'm willing to support the fact celestial objects have some physical effect upon the human body and mind. However, this effect seems to be very direct and obvious (the sun, the rotation of the Earth, and our diurnal patterns of sleeping and waking) or so negligible as to be obliterated by random noise and more proximal conditions (as in the case with the gravitational effect of Mars). Certainly, there may be some intermediate conditions (such as the waxing and waning of the Moon), but these do not seem statistically evident.

In any case, I do indeed find Astrology to be utter hogwash. Besides the utterly hubristic anthropocentricity, the notion that the movement of the Earth in relation to distant stars or even the nearer planets has any significant effect upon anything beyond human psychology (primarily though belief in such a notion) is simply unsupportable either due to the negligible physical effect or by the lack of statistical evidence.

Such correlations that do occur (if there are any) are far more likely to be causally unrelated and simply coincidentally correlative, such as the fact that North American Sagittarians are born in winter (i.e. Winter has a far more profound affect than the stars on human behavior) than having anything to do with the celestial configurations.

The fact that Mars is several million miles closer to us now has infinitely less effect upon my behavior than the fact that I got my mouth washed with soap once when I was ten for swearing or the fact that I have an infected cut on the back of my left hand.

~Raithere
 
what about attempts to correlate lunar cycles with certain behaviours?. unneccessary association? offhand i can think of schizo studies, criminal activity...... that show some promise.

dogbites however has been thoroughly discredited;)
 
Originally posted by spookz
what about attempts to correlate lunar cycles with certain behaviours?. unneccessary association? offhand i can think of schizo studies, criminal activity...... that show some promise.
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Check one of the sites I offered. Here it is again:

http://www.univ.trieste.it/~brain/NeuroBiol/Neuroscienze per tutti/moon.html

What you will note is that in most studies there is no significant correlation, those few studies that do are often using smaller data groups where random variation gives the study a larger margin of error or have contrasting studies with entirely different results. In the small number of remaining cases psychology is a primary factor and the psychological influence must be considered when evaluating causation.

~Raithere
 
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