Runaway Global Warming

[sculptor]

Interesting weather.
We ain't seeing many record low temperatures, but have seen many record low high temperatures. This was the mode for much of last winter, wherein we seldom reached average high temperatures, and this summer we have record low numbers of days above 100 degrees F, and record low number of days above 90 degrees F.
The arctic sea ice is recovering, and the sun is going into a minimum.

CO2 ain't the boogeyman many seem to suppose.

Concerning our shared co-evolutionary biom: We do have symbiotic contracts which we should honor.
The primary producers were here first, and we evolved to serve their needs.
One of those needs involves animal species consuming oxygen and producing carbon dioxide.
Are we not all animals? And darned if our technological trends have not made us the best at that symbiotic contract.
If we can live up to the potential embodied within our collective intelligence, we'll learn how to optimize and control our contribution to and for the primary producers.

 

[billvon]

Unbelievable!!! Sao Paulo 40 million people, less than 3.5% fresh water reserves. What are they going to do when that 3.5% dries up?

Use less water I imagine.

40M people is a lot of thirsty people....summer nearly there!

Well, keep in mind that no one predicts that in places like Sao Paulo there won't be water to drink. 99.9% of water is not used for drinking; it's used for flushing toilets, washing dishes, washing clothes, as cooling water for industry, for irrigating crops, golf courses and lawns, filling swimming pools etc etc. Those are the things that will go first.

 

[billvon]

I was asked by a female environmental lobby group donation collector for support to save the Great Barrier Reef (QLD) from oil exploitation and I responded by suggesting that the barrier reef was a lost cause due to rising water levels . . . .

?? The barrier reef is not threatened by rising water levels. That's how coral reefs grow. (And when the water levels drop - how coral atolls form.)

However, ocean acidification is threatening reefs worldwide.

So little is understood about the current situation due to the sheer pace of change that is occurring globally and clinging to the old "CO2 is responsible" paradigm aint helping. IMO

Quite a lot is understood, actually. And CO2 is largely responsible.

 

[Billy T]

Unbelievable!!! Sao Paulo 40 million people, less than 3.5% fresh water reserves. What are they going to do when that 3.5% dries up? 40M people is a lot of thirsty people....summer nearly there! Terrible news Billy T....

Yes it is. That is why I found the video in my post 246 so interesting. Its thesis is that the net effect of silver iodide cloud seeding to make rain locally is to increase droughts. - That is sort of obvious that there is an immediate effect - sort of stealing rain from your down wind up hill neighbor where the rain would naturally have fallen if the moisture was not "milked" out of the cloud for your local benefit. - that was not news to me, but their claim that this most hydroscopic of all materials is lowering significantly evaporation rates was, even in the ocean, especially the surface of the tropical ocean where salt concentrations are already highest, was. (I find that a little hard to believe, but the presence of speakers from several very respected research centers in the video makes me wonder if it is fact.)

It certainly is a fact that many parts of Brazil not far from the coast, and even the Amazon "rain" forest are with exceptional dry conditions now. Sao Paulo's drought is the worse "ever" (well in the last 80+ years when accurate records were kept.) Brazil's NE has "always" been poor and lack of water is a main cause. My Brazilian wife is an internationally recognized expert, often invited to give talks (one or two every year in other Portuguese speaking countries*) and I go with her to some in distant cities in Brazil. A driver from the sponsor usually is waiting for us at the airport. That is why I had an hour long drive thur the NE last year. I saw mile after mile of regularly spaced cactus plants - They have machines to remove their sharp thorns and chop them up - as that is what the cows eat there!

About a week ago, we started to take our short showers with large bucket between our legs - the water it catches flushes the toilets, which we don't flush just for urination. - I'm old and a side effect is I need to urinate often so bath room door remains shut and window open. Today, I bought 90 L of bottled water in the early AM, and the shelves were more than half empty already. We live in large well fenced complex of high-rise apartments buildings, that surround nice central private park with three small artificial ponds. There fountains have been turned off and one is nearly dry now. When no water comes from the tap, if it gets to that, I will use rope and bucket to get water form the large one to flush toilets. One of wife's daughters has a small country estate - with lake (and fish in it) feed by small stream - We will make it into the normally rainy fall (a month or so from now) OK, but prospects for the poor are not so good. Already, in some poor areas there is water in the taps only part time. The presidential "run-off" election is this Sunday - with their "vote power" gone on Monday, it will be less hours each day with water in their taps. The water shortage is big issue in the election (2nd only to corruption). Both blame the other (or at least the party of the challenger as that party, but not him, has the Mayor of Sao Paulo.)

* And less frequently in English speaking lands. (My spoken Portuguese is poor, but I read it easily; we speak English together.)

 

[Billy T]

Solar is an established—and constantly improving—form of renewable power. But according to a new report by the European Union its economic impact is incredibly costly, and far worse than wind ... The report, you see, considered not just the capital and operating costs of power plants, but their economic impacts in terms of climate change, pollution, and resource depletion. That might sound tough, but there's plenty of data out there to base such calculations on.

The report writers calculated a levelized costs—the estimated economic cost per megawatt-hour of electricity generated using each technology. And it didn't end well for solar. According to the analysis, new coal and natural gas plants cost just over $64 per megawatt-hour; onshore wind $102; nuclear power $115; and utility-scale solar plants $127.

Why? It seems, according to Technology Review, to be because of the manufacturing of solar cells. Most cells are manufactured in China and, there, electricity is incredibly carbon-intensive. Combine that with the fact that the cells use important metal resources, and the overall economic impact isn't good.

This quote from is from Gizmodo, whom I never heard of, so I went to the EU commission's report. - They greatly boiled the report down, but reasonably well to one of its main points: Solar is very inferior to other alternate energy / renewables environmentally mainly due to fact panels are made mainly in China with huge fraction of the energy used coming from coal. Also care with toxic wastes and metal there is not what it should be.
I have noted for years, that in the US where "running the meter backwards" makes Solar a good electric power option for the individual, it transfers most of the capital cost of the grid back-up "battery" to others. When few were doing this the power companies did little to more fairly price their service to the roof top solar user, but now they are getting vocal about that with the public service commissions that set the rates they can charge. This report does not mention this - perhaps using the grid as your back-up battery is not so common in EU? Or perhaps most solar in EU is not "roof top" but at the power company and capital cheap gas turbine "back- up" is used? I guess for a few hours use each month that is very much cheaper than batteries, which the US roof top solar user avoids by using the grid for back up. Your electric bill is at least 80% to cover the capital cost, 90% in some areas so all must pay their fair share soon, as solar grows.

* EU's report at: http://ec.europa.eu/energy/studies/doc/20141013_subsidies_costs_eu_energy.pdf Just released (10 October 2014)
The EU's report is 50 pages long but has many well done graphs, charts and tables. Chart 3.8 is especially worth a little of your time.

 

[Quantum Quack]

Yes it is. That is why I found the video in my post 246 so interesting. Its thesis is that the net effect of silver iodide cloud seeding to make rain locally is to increase droughts. - That is sort of obvious that there is an immediate effect - sort of stealing rain from your down wind up hill neighbor where the rain would naturally have fallen if the moisture was not "milked" out of the cloud for your local benefit. - that was not news to me, but their claim that this most hydroscopic of all materials is lowering significantly evaporation rates was, even in the ocean, especially the surface of the tropical ocean where salt concentrations are already highest, was. (I find that a little hard to believe, but the presence of speakers from several very respected research centers in the video makes me wonder if it is fact.)

It certainly is a fact that many parts of Brazil not far from the coast, and even the Amazon "rain" forest are with exceptional dry conditions now. Sao Paulo's drought is the worse "ever" (well in the last 80+ years when accurate records were kept.) Brazil's NE has "always" been poor and lack of water is a main cause. My Brazilian wife is an internationally recognized expert, often invited to give talks (one or two every year in other Portuguese speaking countries*) and I go with her to some in distant cities in Brazil. A driver from the sponsor usually is waiting for us at the airport. That is why I had an hour long drive thur the NE last year. I saw mile after mile of regularly spaced cactus plants - They have machines to remove their sharp thorns and chop them up - as that is what the cows eat there!

About a week ago, we started to take our short showers with large bucket between our legs - the water it catches flushes the toilets, which we don't flush just for urination. - I'm old and a side effect is I need to urinate often so bath room door remains shut and window open. Today, I bought 90 L of bottled water in the early AM, and the shelves were more than half empty already. We live in large well fenced complex of high-rise apartments buildings, that surround nice central private park with three small artificial ponds. There fountains have been turned off and one is nearly dry now. When no water comes from the tap, if it gets to that, I will use rope and bucket to get water form the large one to flush toilets. One of wife's daughters has a small country estate - with lake (and fish in it) feed by small stream - We will make it into the normally rainy fall (a month or so from now) OK, but prospects for the poor are not so good. Already, in some poor areas there is water in the taps only part time. The presidential "run-off" election is this Sunday - with their "vote power" gone on Monday, it will be less hours each day with water in their taps. The water shortage is big issue in the election (2nd only to corruption). Both blame the other (or at least the party of the challenger as that party, but not him, has the Mayor of Sao Paulo.)

* And less frequently in English speaking lands. (My spoken Portuguese is poor, but I read it easily; we speak English together.)

Here in Melbourne Australia we went through something similar some time ago, only a city of a couple of million though and the scale of need is vastly less than Sao Paulo.
"Great cities only exist because they offer the ability to share community infrastructure in a cost effective manner" and the water supply is one of them. No water, renders the hygiene, and drinking water infrastructure useless. The logistics involved with Sao Paulo's water problems must be massive.
I have family living in Sao Paulo (c/o ex wife - I was there in 2006) and they have mentioned none of this...nor has there been any reference in the local media that I am aware of.

 

[iceaura]

And your response to this please :
"They could stop all CO2 inputs immediately and we will still be in deep sh*t big time, so why bother?" type attitude no doubt...

Gee, dunno - how about fining the media corporations responsible for that irresponsible crap hundreds of millions of dollars to cover the extra cost of delayed CO2 boost reduction? how about beating the people responsible for spreading that kind of political dysfunction with the "canes" the Saudis use for punishing slander of the Koran?

We ain't seeing many record low temperatures, but have seen many record low high temperatures. This was the mode for much of last winter, wherein we seldom reached average high temperatures, and this summer we have record low numbers of days above 100 degrees F, and record low number of days above 90 degrees F.
The arctic sea ice is recovering, and the sun is going into a minimum.

CO2 ain't the boogeyman many seem to suppose.

If you haven't figured out by now why people are worried about the CO2 boost, or even what the evidence would be for incoming disaster, you probably never will.

But after the past twenty years of seeing denialists publicly and repeatedly humiliated in their perennial claims of recovery for the Arctic sea ice, and solar fluctuations dominating the weather, aren't you at least a bit wary about posting those two so often debunked assertions yet again? Why do you think this time is different?

- They greatly boiled the report down, but reasonably well to one of its main points: Solar is very inferior to other alternate energy / renewables environmentally mainly due to fact panels are made mainly in China

The mystery of the identification of "solar" with photovoltaic panels continues. It seems almost organized, enforced somehow.

 

[Quantum Quack]

Gee, dunno - how about fining the media corporations responsible for that irresponsible crap hundreds of millions of dollars to cover the extra cost of delayed CO2 boost reduction? how about beating the people responsible for spreading that kind of political dysfunction with the "canes" the Saudis use for punishing slander of the Koran?

So you wish not to speculate on what would happen if we stopped anthropogenic CO2 outputs immediately?

If you haven't figured out by now why people are worried about the CO2 boost, or even what the evidence would be for incoming disaster, you probably never will.

Most people are aware that the global environment is basically a self justifying system. In that all climatic events are justified by events which in turn are justified by events etc.
The planet s self justification process will see the global environment attempt to adapt to change in the form of compensatory events and CO2 boost is just one of them. So too is algae blooms as is escalating intensity of Hurricane, cyclone and typhoon strengths, oceanic dead spots, and even the water crisis in Sao Paulo. Certainly, symptoms of fundamental causes (ie. CO2 Boost) can go on to add a further layer of causality however this doesn't deal with the root causation but more a symptomatic causation IMO.

 

[Quantum Quack]

We as a race either learn to drop our claim to ego centric mastership of this planet and further learn to adapt "on the fly", and adapt rapidly or we as a race will suffer the consequences.
It is this egoistic claim to fame, that prevents generating the flexibility, resilience and the ability to survive in a rapidly changing environment.
Once the world ceases focusing on the illusive CO2 agenda and concentrates on adapting to change we as a race may actually survive whilst the planets future environmental equilibrium is achieved.
And that includes reducing our footprint generally [including CO2 outputs]
There is only one out come for arrogance and pride and that is humiliation.
and I guess, mother nature is sending a message big time....

 

[iceaura]

So you wish not to speculate on what would happen if we stopped anthropogenic CO2 outputs immediately?

I wish that the corporate and political profiteers who have been spreading damaging and demoralizing bs about the CO2 boost be taken out back of the woodshed and "learned to behave", as my grandpa would not have put it (he was a college grad).

The planet s self justification process will see the global environment attempt to adapt to change in the form of compensatory events and CO2 boost is just one of them.

So? We don't want to have to deal with the planet's adaptation to this CO2 boost we are engaged in. It's going to be a bad scene for us, these adaptations our planet is being forced to make by our CO2 boosting. Let's try not to make them worse for us, how about.

 

[Quantum Quack]

o? We don't want to have to deal with the planet's adaptation to this CO2 boost we are engaged in. It's going to be a bad scene for us, these adaptations our planet is being forced to make by our CO2 boosting. Let's try not to make them worse for us, how about.

No what I am suggesting is that we need to concentrate on our adaptation with in this self justification process.
How are we going to survive the next summer extremes?
How is the world going to cope with cyclonic weather [ tornadoes, water spouts, hurricanes etc}] that no longer can be rated using our current rating methods... Example: ever heard of a category 11 hurricane?
Vastly stronger earthquakes and volcanism.

...and so on...

But most of all we need to generate trustworthy, brutally honest impartial and objective science so that the world has the information resources to aid in that adaptation process.

 

[billvon]

We as a race either learn to drop our claim to ego centric mastership of this planet and further learn to adapt "on the fly", and adapt rapidly or we as a race will suffer the consequences.
It is this egoistic claim to fame, that prevents generating the flexibility, resilience and the ability to survive in a rapidly changing environment.
Once the world ceases focusing on the illusive CO2 agenda and concentrates on adapting to change we as a race may actually survive whilst the planets future environmental equilibrium is achieved.

So keep changing the planet, stop trying to stop that, and just adapt to the mess we've made? Sounds like a 5 year old's approach to the mess he makes in the house . . . "Come on, ma! Yeah, I'm making a mess, but I am sick of your 'neat' agenda! Once you stop with the agendas and start concentrating on rapidly adapting to the changes I've made to the living room we'll all be a lot happier."

 

[Quantum Quack]

no... start listening to mum [nature] and stop trying to tell her what to do...

 

[billvon]

no... start listening to mum [nature] and stop trying to tell her what to do...

Ah. So stop dumping CO2 and methane into the atmosphere and trying our best to warm the planet? A good first step I think.

 

[Quantum Quack]

When hundreds of large sea turtles come up to humans on a beach and die at their feet [ QLD a few years ago ] apparently ignoring their natural instinctive fear of man we need to listen. The turtles were saying something... something terrible that humanity wished and chose to ignore.
We can not go on ignoring it by focusing on a confused science about CO2

 

[iceaura]

No what I am suggesting is that we need to concentrate on our adaptation with in this self justification process

Yep. Beginning by not making things any worse than we can help. So cut way back on the CO2 boost, step one.

But most of all we need to generate trustworthy, brutally honest impartial and objective science so that the world has the information resources to aid in that adaptation process.

So cut way back on the generation of deceptions, deflections, and deliberately misleading misrepresentations by profit-motivated corporate interests and their political minions, step one.

So far so good.

We can not go on ignoring it by focusing on a confused science about CO2

The science about CO2 doesn't seem to be confused. Are you confused about it? There are people here who can help you.

 

[Quantum Quack]

As I said the price for "arrogance" is humiliation and unfortunately those that are more "humble" will have to wear some of the collateral damage.
Not much point having a fist full of dollars when there isn't any water to drink or a hurricane rated 11 is about to hit you in the face is there?

Example: most of the world is still investing in a future world that no longer exists because someone is telling them that "hey man we got it under control" or "we can fix this" when we simply don't and can't.

 

[billvon]

When hundreds of large sea turtles come up to humans on a beach and die at their feet [ QLD a few years ago ] apparently ignoring their natural instinctive fear of man we need to listen. The turtles were saying something... something terrible that humanity wished and chose to ignore.
We can not go on ignoring it by focusing on a confused science about CO2

You keep saying two different things. "We can't go on ignoring the damage we do to the environment." "We should ignore the damage we do to the environment via CO2 and methane emissions." They're not really compatible statements.

 

[Quantum Quack]

What I am saying is that the CO2 issue is only a "small" part of the symptoms created by a fundamental "natural" problem. To focus only on the CO2 issue is only to help placate the fear of the main game and further feed human egocentricity.
The Main game is "Adapt or Perish" as far as I can tell... and this includes but is not limited to reducing C02.
Start listening to MOM* instead of our own egos and we may make progress.
*nature
Example: Brasil which hosted the incredibly expensive world soccer cup has failed to adapt and now a city of 40 million people faces the potential of unprecedented catastrophe.

 

[Quantum Quack]

either surf the tsunami of change or get consumed by it...