Presidential predictions for 2024?
- Thread starter Seattle
- Start date
No, it doesn't. And that's not what either Putin nor Trump have said. Trump has merely said that, once elected, he will get the prisoner released. Much like he has said that once elected he could stop the war in Ukraine within a couple of days. He has simply said what he will do once elected, because he'll be in a position, presumably, to do something.
He is not "working to keep" the prisoner in jail, as if Putin wants to release him and Trump is saying "no, don't, until after I'm elected!". Your misrepresentation/spin is an ironic bit of Trumpian Truth-telling.
I can imagine any number of scenarios that aren't the same as the issue at hand, and reach any number of conclusions there from.
It's more likely Trump's not in a position to offer Russia anything until reelected (and would be illegal under US law, I believe, for him to do so, not that it has stopped him in the past, mind) and all he is doing is saying what he will do, much like he has claimed he would end the Ukraine war.
Or maybe billvon thinks he's working with Russia to extend the war until he's elected?
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Seattle
Valued Senior Member
I don't know but Trump had the largest crowds ever for his inaugural. Did you know that?It's more likely Trump's not in a position to offer Russia anything until reelected (and would be illegal under US law, I believe, for him to do so, not that it has stopped him in the past, mind) and all he is doing is saying what he will do, much like he has claimed he would end the Ukraine war.
Or maybe billvon thinks he's working with Russia to extend the war until he's elected?
He also recently had 100k for a rally in Wildwood, in a designated area that had a c.20k capacity and was less than half full!
And mainstream media (not just Fox) just keep reporting such lies rather than hold him to account.
The person who originally gave the 100k number then admitted that this was the total number in the town at the time, not at the rally.
His reception at a recent Libertarian party convention was funny, though. He was mostly booed throughout, and basically just tried to bribe them for his endorsement (by having Libertarians in his cabinet and other influential positions). But as one person commented: "I would rather eat my own foot out of a bear trap" [than endorse Trump]
Will be interesting to see how the independents affect the voting this time round, as previously commented. Will they simply stick with their candidate, or vote strategically to ensure someone doesn't get elected? E.g. vote for someone whose views you support but who has no chance of getting elected, or vote to ensure someone you see as a threat to democracy doesn't get in by voting for his main rival?
Janus58
Valued Senior Member
Trump said that Putin would release the prisoner only for him and that he could get him released with a phone call, but he won't unless he wins the presidency. He even said that he could get them released the day after the election. So while this doesn't rise to the level of a something he has worked out with Putin, it does align with Trump's "transactional" mindset. " I could do it, but I won't unless I get what I want first"
Whether or not he really could do it is beside the point, he sees it as a bargaining chip.
Can you post a link to where Trump is reported to have said this? A "Truth" post of his, perhaps? I'm not saying he hasn't said it, but the only report that has been provided doesn't support even this view of yours. If we want to attribute things to Trump - and, heck, he says a lot of gumph - then we should be sure we're accurately reporting it, and not spinning what he says to suit. Otherwise are we any better than him and his Maga-cult members?
foghorn
Valued Senior Member
Does this help?
This link should take you straight to the post on Truth Social.
Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump)
Evan Gershkovich, the Reporter from The Wall Street Journal, who is being held by Russia, will be released almost immediately after the Election, but definitely before I assume Office. He will be HOME, SAFE, AND WITH HIS FAMILY. Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, will do that for me, but not...
truthsocial.com
They appear to be referring to this report in TIME magazine back on April 30, and interpreting his "I've been so busy" as an excuse for not doing anything before becoming POTUS. But as in the Truth Social post, he likewise seems to suggest at the end that he has to become President in order for Putin to care.
Exclusive: Donald Trump Calls for Evan Gershkovich's Release
In an interview, Trump became the latest national figure to directly call on Russia to free journalist Evan Gershkovich.
When asked by TIME why he had not called for Gershkovich’s release earlier, Trump says his attention had been elsewhere. “I guess because I have so many other things I’m working on. I have hundreds of things,” Trump said. “And I probably have said very good things about him. Maybe it wasn’t reported. I think he’s a very brave young man.” Trump says that if he were president, Putin would let Gershkovich go. “Here’s the difference between me and Biden: I’ll get him released,” Trump says. “Putin’s going to release him.”
But as The Atlantic put it this month: "In any case, there is no U.S. law prohibiting anyone from making an appeal to a foreign leader, and several prominent Americans have made similar efforts."
So even if Trump believes he can't successfully persuade Putin while as an ordinary citizen, he should still probably make an attempt just to show he tried, to deflect the accusation of total political self-interest. Or provide a reason for why a premature effort might derail the later one.
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If democracy raises the white flag my life will be the poorer for that.
Seattle
Valued Senior Member
Sure. If the sky falls tomorrow the same applies but except in the drama shows, that rarely happens. If Trump wins, what do you suppose the probability is that democracy "raises the flag" within the next 4 years?
I feel that probability is quite high .If the American electorate is prepared to vote for an outcome that is happy to ride roughshod over the democratic entilements of the despised half of the country(as well as their own ignorant ,unvalued entitlements) then I can well imagine things getting worse before they get better.
Of course democracy will prevail in the end ,but how long will the detour be and what a miserable path to choose for a nation that supposedly prides itself as "the Land of the Free"
I am not sure how others rate that probability.
I remember being reassured that the Guard rails would protect against a rogue president.
They did ,but I have my doubts second time around.
And if instead the attempt failed, Biden would probably blame Trump for interfering and making negotiations worse.
But regardless of his claims that "we will pay nothing" for Gershkovich being released, Trump (as President) would most certainly be offering Putin something. Just as with his unsettled plans and assertions that he will end the Ukraine-Russian War -- and perhaps the reporter would even be part of that package deal.
With respect to either concern, we can usually forget about getting anything but addled and revolving door answers slash forecasts from Trump. Years ago, he criticized the Obama administration for repeatedly announcing in advance precisely what it was going to do in terms of designs, military actions, sanctions, etc. Accordingly, Trump's MO was to do the opposite -- to generate as much confusion as possible about what he actually intends regarding an _X_. During an interval he'll promise or suggest one vague or potentially silly scheme, and the next he switches to or hints at a different proposal.
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exchemist
Valued Senior Member
Yes. If Trump wins, Ukraine will fall and that will change life in Europe significantly. We will have to re-arm at speed, which will affect other expenditure, may have to reintroduce conscription and so on. China will be emboldened to take Taiwan, which will also have serious economic consequences. The collapse of American moral authority in the world will be immensely damaging in other ways too, though this may take time for its effects to feed through.
P.S. You will never get Trump out until he dies. The 2 term rule will be ignored.
Even with Biden there would be "change", but of the already extant slow-death by a thousand cuts kind that society is incrementally accumulating. Because of its lethargic pace, that transformation may only falsely resemble stasis or immutable stability in terms of individual experience.
And controversial upheavals of all sorts are associated with a Trump administration.[1] One might contend that the ripples would broaden out and be less turbulent by the time the effects reached local community ("I notice no added mayhem in the village!"). Or that Blue States would be disoriented by Trump Engineering far more than Red States. Along with the expectation that just as before, his radical policy changes would be reversed by the next Democrat tenure in that office.
- - - footnote - - -
[1] Certainly there would also be another circus of angry street and soapbox performers, outcries about looming apocalypse, wailing about increased levels of systemic oppression. and rumors of massive domestic genocide either covertly or overtly taking place. And the usual vows of leaping off skyscrapers or ridiculously immigrating to Canada's housing and affordability crisis (though wealthy celebrities among the drama posturers could weather such expense and shortage). While arguably of a different sort, just refusing to keep up with the news anymore due to having to endure that festival of ___ each day would be a minor returned change in plebeian life (perhaps even a welcome one).
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No. Still not going to vote for the rapist.