Military Events in Syria and Iraq Thread #4

[iceaura]

I do not name them deep state simply there was nothing deep, the Party leaders were known to be the big guys

And likewise in the US, as has been pointed out to you: These guys are not hidden.

I have gotten a nice impression about it in Germany.
- - - -
The Party lost the power after this, a deep state started to develop and rule, very fast. Then, of course, not only the new oligarchs (who became oligarchs because of family connections with the former and new political leaders), but also those who hated this robbery started to develop deep state political connections, and the secret services became players there too. Then, the whole administrative apparatus became corrupt, and corruption also creates a deep state who distributes the corruption income

When I pointed to that as a likely explanation of your blind spot and assumptions, you denied it.

If Syrian oil would have been the point, there would have been no agreement between Russia and US about fighting IS together with the Euphrat as the dividing line - the Russians would have preferred to fight the Kurds to get the oil East of the Euphrat.

The Russians don't need the small oil in Syria. They need good relations with Iran and Iraq.

If pipelines would be the issue, US would simply go away, or would not have accepted the Iran land bridge via Abu Kamal.

So you do recognize the importance of pipelines and such, just not to the US?

Because given Iran has now a land bridge, he could build a pipeline through Syrian, while SA/Qatar cannot, so the actual front line would be a full loss.

I doubt anyone regards the US invasion of Iraq and attendant events (such as the Syrian eruption) as a gain or success for the US against Iran. The US has incurred great loss throughout, by this miserable blunder of the last Republican government. That it has also inflicted great loss makes things worse, not better.
Point is, you cannot assume US goals and interests line up with outcomes in Syria. You can't look at US outcomes and reason back to US agendas. The US has fucked up, here.

 

[Schmelzer]

Here another map about the actual situation, after Lajat has been given up by the jihadists:

Today, the town Busra al Harir has been taken by the Syrian army, so that the Suweida-Izra road will be liberated in short time too.

And likewise in the US, as has been pointed out to you: These guys are not hidden.

But their role in the real power structure seems quite unclear and not really the same as what is the official role. At least for several major players: All the lobbies (which have no official power at all), all military-industrial complex and in particular the security services.

When I pointed to that as a likely explanation of your blind spot and assumptions, you denied it.

Whatever you speculate about me, it has never been accurate. From simply blatant lies to minor but not irrelevant misrepresentations. There is only thing I have not seen - a correct representation.

So you do recognize the importance of pipelines and such, just not to the US?

Of course, they were an important motivation for SA as well as Qatar to fight Assad. If they played a role for Iran is less clear, Iran has other routes (through Turkey) to Europe. For Iran, the connection with the other Shia regions was clearly more important.

 

[iceaura]

But their role in the real power structure seems quite unclear and not really the same as what is the official role.

It is not hidden, it is not particularly unclear, it is well and clearly described in many places, and it is not "deep".

Whatever you speculate about me, it has never been accurate.

You just confirmed the latest one, as you have others.

If they played a role for Iran is less clear, Iran has other routes (through Turkey) to Europe. For Iran, the connection with the other Shia regions was clearly more important.

The role in question was for Russia and the US and Assad.
Also, having other routes does not render the ones at issue in Syria trivial or of no concern - or the relations with Russia, etc.

 

[Schmelzer]

The Syrian army continues its advances, taking some villages and moving to the next more important town from several fronts:

It is not hidden, it is not particularly unclear, it is well and clearly described in many places, and it is not "deep".

There are, of course, many sites which describe in many details all the parts of the deep state. I doubt their reliability. Given that I have no means to verify them, I simply prefer not to speculate about the details.

The role in question was for Russia and the US and Assad. Also, having other routes does not render the ones at issue in Syria trivial or of no concern - or the relations with Russia, etc.

For Russia, Syrian oil is irrelevant, and other pipelines are also a minor problem. What is important in the pipeline business for Russia are the own pipelines, like North Stream II which the US wants to prevent. Then, of course, nobody objects against taking side effects. Once there will be good relations between Russia and Syria, why not using them for the Russian oil and gas industry to do something in Syria? If there is a shorter way to build a pipeline, why not using it? What would be the point of considering such secondary aims? They are, of course, useful for propaganda, if they are somehow dubious or evil. What else? To predict what will happen on the front they appeared to be useless. Oil would have predicted a fight SAA-SDF for the oil fields, in reality, there was none. The pipelines issue would have predicted a much heavier fight against the Iran land bridge. Ok, there was one, but only low level, without open conflict, and the Iran-Lebanon land bridge is much more important for other than pipeline issues.

By the way, the Syrians claimed they have cleared a quite large region near Abu Kamal and the Iraq border from the IS. This was, of course, part of the fight for the Iranian land bridge, and a lot of Shia forces are fighting there. And Israel has recently bombed some of them in that region, working as the IS air force.

 

[iceaura]

There are, of course, many sites which describe in many details all the parts of the deep state. I doubt their reliability

It's not hidden, it's not unclear, and it's not deep, in the US. It's right up front.

For Russia, Syrian oil is irrelevant, and other pipelines are also a minor problem.

But relations with Iran and so forth - the oil field governance of the ME - are not irrelevant. Nobody but Syrians would be in Syria but for the oil and gas issues - not in Syria, but in the region.

 

[Schmelzer]

The Syrian army made further advances South of the region already mentioned above, taking Brigade 52 base and Rakham village. There is also a peace agreement with the town Bosra:

But relations with Iran and so forth - the oil field governance of the ME - are not irrelevant. Nobody but Syrians would be in Syria but for the oil and gas issues - not in Syria, but in the region.

Wrong. The US plays power games everywhere. Russia had to prevent the creation of a terrorist state for obvious own security reasons. Iran cares about the Shia population everywhere even without oil. Oil is, of course, very important. But it is not everything.

 

[CptBork]

Russia had to prevent the creation of a terrorist state for obvious own security reasons.

ISIS spent 10 years crossing into Iraq from Syria to strike at US forces there while Assad gave them a free hand, back when they were known as "Al Qaeda in Iraq". They killed more Iraqis than the whole US invasion did in the first place. Why did Russia not consider them a terrorist threat at the time?

 

[Schmelzer]

There has been even more progress today, namely three more towns, Alma, Sawara, and Hirak, along a street from Suweida to Daraa which is now completely liberated.

ISIS spent 10 years crossing into Iraq from Syria to strike at US forces there while Assad gave them a free hand, back when they were known as "Al Qaeda in Iraq". They killed more Iraqis than the whole US invasion did in the first place. Why did Russia not consider them a terrorist threat at the time?

Because ISIS was created in Iraq and only later crossed from Iraq into Syria. There have been various claims about Syrian secret services supporting ISIS in some initial phase, but this is cheap, the starting points for the organization of ISIS were US camps for prisoners of war. After some time they were released by the US. Maybe out of stupidity, maybe a conspiracy. So, they were in Iraq from the start, and initially only in Iraq. Even if the claims about Assad's secret support for ISIS were true, this would not be a "crossing into Iraq from Syria". And from a political point, it made no sense for Assad to support ISIS, given that they are Sunni terrorists who hate Alawites.

 

[iceaura]

Wrong. The US plays power games everywhere. Russia had to prevent the creation of a terrorist state for obvious own security reasons. Iran cares about the Shia population everywhere even without oil. Oil is, of course, very important. But it is not everything.

Oil appears to be more important than those considerations.

 

[Schmelzer]

Today, there is, at many places, some sort of ceasefire for negotiations, with quite impressive results. First, there are three towns - Ibta, Dael, and Tafas on the Western part, North of Daraa itself. This is not unexpected at all, given that they were close to switch sides already a year ago. There have been already Syrian flags over Ibta at that time, but then came Al Qaida terrorists and killed some of the locals, and all submitted.

The information about the village taken North of these three towns (the red arrow) is unconfirmed and, it seems, wrong.

Even greater progress seems to be reached in the Eastern part:

Sayda, Um al Mayadin, Tayyibah and Nasib have agreed to reconciliation and to give away their weapons to the Syrian army. The town of Al Karak (in the North-Eastern part of this map) has also been taken, after some fighting. (Rakham North of it was taken already yesterday.) With Gariyat, there are ongoing negotiations. In other words, there seems to be a complete collapse.

 

[Schmelzer]

The places where we have either agreement about reconciliation or the Syrian army has taken control, (or Russian military police - the locals tend to trust them more, so they often insist that it is the Russian police which comes first - the Syrian army is allowed to come only some days later), or the Syrian flag is already hissed (this is a different situation - given that there are a lot of local demonstrations with Syrian flags, and if the fighters give up and leave the town, the Syrian flag may be hissed without Syrian army or Russian police being there). The information where what has happened is unclear, different maps give very different pictures. The following map seems quite reasonable:

So, towns already with the Syrian army or Russian police inside: in Western Daraa: Dael - Ibta, in Eastern Daraa: Umm Walad - al-Ghariyah al-Gharbiyah -al-Ghariyah al-Sharqiyah - al-Karak - al Musayfirah - al-Jizah.

Towns where the reconciliation agreements are already made official: Tafas, al Tayyibah, Um al Mayadin, Saida, Naseeb.

 

[CptBork]

The places where we have either agreement about reconciliation or the Syrian army has taken control, (or Russian military police - the locals tend to trust them more, so they often insist that it is the Russian police which comes first - the Syrian army is allowed to come only some days later), or the Syrian flag is already hissed (this is a different situation - given that there are a lot of local demonstrations with Syrian flags, and if the fighters give up and leave the town, the Syrian flag may be hissed without Syrian army or Russian police being there).

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-m...g-fighting-in-south-syria-unhcr-idUKKBN1JP2XB

160,000 refugees have fled the fighting in southern Syria in the last couple of weeks. Do they also trust Russian police?

 

[Schmelzer]

The peace negotiations are not going as good as one could have hoped. The town Tafas seems to have switched to IS instead of making peace, and a quite large number of Syrian negotiators ended in an ambush organized by the IS. Some parts of the FSA have attacked those who were ready to make peace in Saida. So, one better wouldn't care about those towns where peace has been promised but about those where the Syrian army has already taken control. And it is quite uncertain. For a plausible map, see the following:

I have seen several pictures from Bosra (right of the 1) as being under control of the army after a peace agreement now.

160,000 refugees have fled the fighting in southern Syria in the last couple of weeks. Do they also trust Russian police?

A first question would be if there are really that many. Not really plausible, that would be a lot of people and one would expect a lot of video material about this. That the people leave for the time of the fighting their town is a reasonable and natural choice. Here is a picture of refugees returning home once the town is under the army: https://twitter.com/watanisy/status/1013688584405209088

 

[CptBork]

A first question would be if there are really that many. Not really plausible, that would be a lot of people and one would expect a lot of video material about this.

I have personally watched dozens upon dozens of videos of the Assad regime brutally torturing prisoners, including women and children, sometimes showing their deaths on film too, just in the first few years of the war alone before Russia joined in and made it even worse. There are hundreds if not thousands of such videos readily available online on sites like Youtube and Liveleak, and if you actually cared about such things you would know and acknowledge that. Where are the videos of Nazis marching through the streets of Kiev and running all the government offices, like you always insist?

You don't need lots of video material to prove anything and never have, you just need excuses to continue praising Putin and his policies at home and abroad. You are right about one thing, though- 160,000 fleeing refugees is an inaccurate estimate. According to the UN, the number is closer now to 270,000.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-44682266

That the people leave for the time of the fighting their town is a reasonable and natural choice.

Hello genius, why do you think hundreds of thousands of refugees flee away from regime-held territory, rather than towards it? If Assad is now in control of nearly the whole country and in particular all the major populated areas, why do millions of refugees still insist that it's safer to live in foreign tent camps and as illegal immigrants in countries like Lebanon and Turkey where their presence sparks riots, and the governments keep threatening to expel them? Talk about "plausible", will you? You're full of shit, I'm more confident than ever that you really agree with me on the facts a lot more than you let on, and just like Goebbels didn't let facts get in his way, and just like your Nazi and KKK friends here don't let facts get in the way, neither will you.

 

[Schmelzer]

I have personally watched dozens upon dozens of videos of the Assad regime brutally torturing prisoners, including women and children, sometimes showing their deaths on film too, just in the first few years of the war alone before Russia joined in and made it even worse.

You have, I haven't. Given that such videos are mainly for propaganda victims, and easy to falsify, I do not care much about them at all, so I may not have seen some. Nonetheless, given that the "most reliable" Western propaganda sources like AI and so on have presented much less than what you claim, I think you simply lie. The only side which became famous for regularly murdering and torturing prisoners on video is the IS, followed by various other US-paid terrorist gangs. The accusations against Assad mostly rely on much more indirect evidence.

Where are the videos of Nazis marching through the streets of Kiev and running all the government offices, like you always insist?

You don't need lots of video material to prove anything and never have, you just need excuses to continue praising Putin and his policies at home and abroad. You are right about one thing, though- 160,000 fleeing refugees is an inaccurate estimate. According to the UN, the number is closer now to 270,000.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-44682266

The map presented in your link from the date 2 July 2018:

shows that BBC as a source of news is incredible. The whole northern area is already several days under army control, and the IS pocket in the East of this map has also been cleared now. (There have been an unconfirmed claim that after the clearing somewhere in this pocket some IS has reappeared somewhere, using the fact that some troops have been withdrawn. But even if this would be true, it would not mean that such an old picture of the enclave would become correct.) Here some better quality maps:

BTW, other sources with maps which are almost always completely off are NYT or the German Zeit. I know about no good, reliable sources of maps in Western propaganda.

Of course, BBC only cites the UN claims, so this is an independent question. But the base for the UN data is completely unclear.

Hello genius, why do you think hundreds of thousands of refugees flee away from regime-held territory, rather than towards it?

First, there is no need to speculate about data I don't have. Then, if there is some fighting at some front line, and you are located at one side of the front line, it is always safer to move away from the front line, independent of your political preferences. If you prefer the other side, one will try to find a way to the preferred side at other places, without any fighting. There are, of course, also a lot of those who prefer to live under jihadist versions of Shariah law, or those who have done things they have to expect retaliation from the families of the victims. How many you have of these two groups? Nothing is known.

 

[iceaura]

First, there is no need to speculate about data I don't have.

Your ignorance has ceased to function as evidence for your arguments, because it too often has proved to be deliberately maintained via rejecting information.

The accusations against Assad mostly rely on much more indirect evidence.

But credible nevertheless - such as the accounts of US black ops outsourcing the torture of targeted people to Assad's already functioning and well-established setups, to which you have been linked.

Note that despite your well-established and extreme gullibility with regard to US corporate authoritarian propaganda, people here still accept information from you in areas in which you remain credible (largely because you have demonstrated that you are informed). Hence the informative maps.

But no information or discussion of the oil and gas influences has yet appeared.

 

[Schmelzer]

The town Saida and a nearby air defense base have been taken by the Syrian army. From Busra there are already a lot of videos not only about the Syrian army being there but also about weapon depots found.

There has been some information yesterday about successful negotiations with Tayyibah, but in general, the negotiations have failed. Saida has been taken by the army. There is also fighting with some territorial advances (some hilltop been taken) North of Tafas. There are claims that some 500 or so "rebel" fighters have switched to IS.

Your ignorance has ceased to function as evidence for your arguments, because it too often has proved to be deliberately maintained via rejecting information.

This is the way getting information works: You have from time to time make decisions about which information you accept as information and what you reject as propaganda.

But credible nevertheless - such as the accounts of US black ops outsourcing the torture of targeted people to Assad's already functioning and well-established setups, to which you have been linked.

This is the same type of information which we have also about some European countries, namely Poland, Romania, Lithuania. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-44313905. Even with court decisions about these cases. To be clear about this: I have no doubt that there will be some torture in Syria. Simply because I have no such doubt about the Third World as a whole, in general. And I have seen enough information about police brutality in the US, Europe, Russia, China, India. Police brutality is much more common than one thinks naively, and almost everywhere. A recent case from Berlin: The SEK (German SWAT) do an operation in the home of some Arabic or Albanian (don't remember) criminal family. At that time, there was some member of the family visiting them, who was not suspected of any criminal deeds. When he understood that the police comes, he laid down on the floor himself, hands behind the head. He was beaten nonetheless, in such a way that he ended up in the hospital. The point is not that he has been beaten - but that he has known before that they will beat him because this is a known practice of the SEK if they make arrests in private rooms. Ok, one can say this is simply police brutality, not torture,

But no information or discussion of the oil and gas influences has yet appeared.

There is nothing to say about this actually. See, for example, what Pepe Escobar writes actually: http://www.atimes.com/article/eagle-meets-bear-and-the-syria-tug-of-war/ Zero occurrences of "oil" or "pipeline". You know, the guy who has created the mem "pipelineistan". http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/175050/pepe_escobar_welcome_to_pipelineistan

 

[iceaura]

This is the way getting information works: You have from time to time make decisions about which information you accept as information and what you reject as propaganda.

And when those decisions are bad ones made in ignorance, and become the willful maintenance of that ignorance, that ignorance is no longer evidence of anything. That was the point.

To be clear about this: I have no doubt that there will be some torture in Syria.

As there has been, for many years - not merely "some", but institutionalized and structural aspects of Syrian government - for all of Assad's tenure.

There is nothing to say about this actually. See, for example, what Pepe Escobar writes actually

You link to fraudulent websites, and articles written about other places and before the Syrian conflict heated up and attracted Russia. Smooth.

Barring petro issues, the US would not be in Syria. What for?

 

[CptBork]

When the United States arrested Canadian citizen Maher Arar and deported him to Bashar Assad's Syria back in 2002, they did so specifically because they knew he was going to be tortured in Assad's prisons. He has since been released, the mistakes which led to his illegal detention on false premises have been identified, and he received something like $10 million from the Canadian government as compensation. Everyone who knows anything about Syria knows that they have extensive torture facilities in which tens of thousands have "disappeared" in recent years.

 

[Schmelzer]

That the SAA has taken Saida is now official and supported by pictures. The Syrian army has further advanced and taken some military installations on the way from Saida to Naima. They are also advancing from the East along the border to Jordan, taking some border points, as shown in this map:

In the Western part, there is some advance South of Tafas.

And when those decisions are bad ones made in ignorance, and become the willful maintenance of that ignorance, that ignorance is no longer evidence of anything. That was the point.

It has never been claimed that the rejection of a particular information is evidence of something. Simply the evidence of the other side was rejected, that's all.

As there has been, for many years - not merely "some", but institutionalized and structural aspects of Syrian government - for all of Assad's tenure.

Maybe. What happens inside the prisons is nothing I could check independently, so, nothing to argue about.

You link to fraudulent websites, and articles written about other places and before the Syrian conflict heated up and attracted Russia. Smooth.

??? The first one is very actual, about Syria and in particular Daraa. The other one was simply a reference, in case you don't know who is Pepe Escobar, to show that he has in the past strongly supported your idea that oil and pipelines are the most important issues.
(Namecalling of websites is ignored anyway.)