Military Events in Syria and Iraq Thread #4

[spidergoat]

Traditional Islam = islamistic, it's the same thing. It means Islam should be the law of the land, which is exactly sharia. But because he rules a state, and terrorists are defined as non-state actors, he avoids the label. But everyone knows what he is - Putin's Islamist. So please don't pretend Putin's motives are anti-terrorism, or pro-humanity, or even pro-international law. If there was any justice in the world, Putin, Kadyrov and Assad would be tried in the Hague as war criminals.

 

[Schmelzer]

Traditional Islam = islamistic, it's the same thing.

No. Islamistic law is a new invention, it aims to recover, revive something. Traditional law is simply traditional law. The case of Chechnya illustrates the difference, with the traditional Islam being Sufi, while the islamists are Wahabi - this is the islamic sect which rules Saudi Arabia, and pays terrorist Islam everywhere.

If there would be any justice in the Hague, those in the Hague as war criminals would be all the American presidents. As it is, the Hague is nothing but a Volksgerichtshof of the US.

 

[spidergoat]

Yes, the US exercises leadership in international law, something Putin would know nothing about.

 

[Schmelzer]

Yes, the US exercises leadership in international law

You have forgotten the word "violating": US exercises leadership in violating international law

 

[Schmelzer]

There have been a lot of small things on the various fronts. Some commentator has said that all this looks more like combat reconnaissance than real offensive actions. The most famous place to be mentioned is that East of Palmyra the Talila crossroad has been taken:

This is important enough as a place toward the T3 airbase, but also for security from the South if one aims at the Arak oil fields and the further road to Sukhnah and then Deir Ezzor. There have been taken some hills North-West of Palmyra. Here, the aim is also the security of the road from Homs to Palmyra from the North. Some places have been taken also South-West of Palmyra.

Then, the attempt to liberate the Damaskus-Bagdad road from US-supported NSA has been restarted. After a great initial success, there had been a counterattack by the NSA, which has reversed some gains. But today, the Syrian army has attacked again, and the actual key point, the Zaza Checkpoint, has been recaptured, and some hills around it too.

There was (yet another) failed attack by Daesh on the road between Aleppo and Homs.

And the evacuation of Qabun has been interrupted - one of the gangs has decided to continue fight, and the fighting continues, with Syrian troops taking some buildings and finding and destroying some tunnels. But this does not mean that there is no evacuation, the evacuation of the fighters and their families from Barzah continues, and there is also some new agreement about evacuation from Tishreen, which is also part of the Qabun pocket, but one controlled by the other gangs.

The Kurds have also made some progress, taking a village 9 km from Raqqa.

 

[Schmelzer]

Oh, and some news in the evening, the Tiger forces have liberated the Jirah airbase and some villages around it.

Twitter here, even with fotos https://twitter.com/MIG29_/status/863124933836234752 and https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/breaking-syrian-army-liberates-strategic-airbase-east-aleppo/ seems good enough as confirmation.

 

[Yazata]

The Kurds have also made some progress, taking a village 9 km from Raqqa.

They successfully completed capturing the Tabqa dam a day or two ago. The 70 ISIS fighters who were sheltering inside it were allowed to safely pass to Raqqah if they disarmed the bombs they had planted in the dam. Supposedly some civil engineers are due to arrive today to inspect the dam, but at first glance it doesn't seem to be in any danger of collapsing or anything.

 

[Schmelzer]

Daesh has yesterday in the night started a counterattack to retake the Jirah airbase, there was heavy fighting, and Daesh was inside the territory of the base, but finally the attack has been repelled, and the Jirah airbase is again under Syrian army control. Given that the initial information about taking the base was that there was no fight, that Daesh has simply left the airbase once it was almost encircled, this looks like the reinforcements for Daesh have been arriving too late. Daesh obviously has not expected that the offensive will be restarted there, and the forces they have left at the base were not sufficient for a serious defense. And now it is loo late.

With the airbase taken, there are no serious military installations left in the Maskanah plain, with only one town, Maskana, and one has to expect that the Syrian army will now move along the Aleppo-Raqqa road up to the part of it hold by the Kurds, and take control of the non-desert part of the Maskanah plain. After this, the desert part will loose its value and can be easily cleared too, or will be simply given up. Which will solve the most serious infrastructure problem of the Syrian army, the thin connection between Aleppo and Homs, which has been attacked already many times, from above sides.

The big news today is another one - Qabun has been taken completely by the Syrian army. https://www.almasdarnews.com/articl...ures-key-rebel-stronghold-northeast-damascus/ The evacuation of Barzah (and, afaiu, of Tishreen) yet continues.

 

[Schmelzer]

In East Aleppo, the Syrian army has taken some hills controlling the Jirah airbase, so that it seems sufficiently secure now. One can expect now slow and systematic advances toward Maskanah.

There was some unconfirmed information that the Kurds have allowed the Syrian army to make some military transport via Manbidsh to Hasaka. This would be, if confirmed, very important - any increase in cooperation between the Kurds and the Syrian army, especially a military one, would be a good thing for the future. One could think here about other possibilities, like a transfer of Syrian army troops to the Kurdish front in Deir Ezzor, to connect to the Deir Ezzor enclave.

The Syrian army also continues its advance along the Damascus-Bagdad highway, advancing around 20 km from the Zaza junction, so that there remain 80 km toward the Iraq border:

 

[Yazata]

An interesting thing:

The United States has been pretty public about placing a small force in SDF-controlled Manbij to visibly show the US flag so as to deter any Turkish attacks on our SDF allies, so as not to divert them from the upcoming attack on the ISIS capital of Raqqah.

https://www.rt.com/news/379580-us-troops-manbij-syria/

Well, it seems that Russia is doing the same thing in SDF-controlled Afrin, in Syria's far northwest.

http://www.rudaw.net/english/analysis/29032017

I think that this is a hopeful sign of Russians and Americans working towards the same ends. (Turkey won't like it though.)

 

[Yazata]

It looks like the Iraqis have made some dramatic gains in west Mosul. Daesh still controls the old city and an area along the Tigris extending north from there. But the Iraqis seem to have retaken most of the outlying areas of west Mosul.

Reportedly Baghdad wants to complete the recapture of Mosul before Ramadan.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-mosul-idUSKCN18B1G8

 

[Schmelzer]

That would be good.

In Syria, there are the usual small advances of the Syrian army against Daesh (IS) in East Aleppo:

Yesterday, they have taken a lot of quarries, marked on the Western side of the map, today they have taken two villages near the Jirah airbase, which is now sufficiently secure from all sides. Some progress yesterday North of the Homs-Palmyra road, also against Daesh:

No confirmed information about the situation along the Damaskus-Bagdad road, but various rumours about a remaining distance of 25 km from the Tanf border crossing.

 

[Schmelzer]

During the evening and the night, the Syrian army has continued its attack against Daesh in East Aleppo, and taken a lot of villages:

 

[Schmelzer]

Today the information about Eastern Aleppo is that two villages East of the Jirah airbase, Qawas and al Hamra, have been taken by the Syrian army. On the map above, above are already marked as taken by the Syrian army, and not only on the map above, but in many maps after the end of the first big offensive where the Euphrat has been reached. So far about the reliability of maps. (But I do not remember any official confirmation that above villages have been taken - only about some parts of the village Qawas I have heard. But maybe they had been retaken by Daesh during their heavy counteroffensive to take the Jirah airbase back.)

The more problematic thing was an attack by the US airforce against some pro-Syrian militias after they came close to the Al Tanf border crossing, or something nearby. Probably to defend US or British special forces in this region (which are there, there have been reports about this before). It was not completely clear who was the target, some pro-Syrian militia or directly the Syrian army. The Syrians and Russians have protested diplomatically. Nonetheless, there have been reports today that the Zarqa crossread has been taken - which would mean that the Syrian army is now 55 km away from the Al Tanf border crossing.

In Deir Ezzor there was a sandstorm, and this usually means Daesh attacks (because airforce does not give much during such weather conditions. And, indeed, there were attacks. But without success, and a lot of casualties for Daesh.

 

[Schmelzer]

The last bus with joepistole's friends has left the suburb Al Waer of Homs, so that Homs is now completely under control of the Syrian government.

The Tiger forces continue their advance in East Aleppo against Daesh, they have taken today a village and a fuel station 5 km South of the Jirah airbase, and are now around 10 km away from Maskanah.

Some progress was mentioned also in Suweida. There are several directions of attack in that region, as shown by the following map:

 

[Schmelzer]

A nice overview map about the various places with fighting during the last 10 days:

So, the general picture is that Daesh is attacked almost everywhere. But, surprisingly, has yet power for counterattacks (7,8,9) even if these counterattacks are repelled, there was a case where they have succeeded to reach a town and to kill there a lot of women and children before reinforcements have arrived.
Today, a new offensive was started at a place not marked at this map, namely at the center:

And, given the news, this offensive has already reached some gains, some hills have been taken.

There has been news that Daesh has send strong reinforcements to Maskanah, to organize the defense of Maskanah. So, one has to expect that the advances in East Aleppo will slow down during the next days. But at least today there have been sufficiently solid gains, several villages have been taken, and the distance to Maskanah is now 6 km.

Attacking Daesh almost everywhere can mean two things: simply battle reconnaissance - to find the weak points of Daesh and continue the attack where they are weak. Or that there has been already reached a point where they are weak enough everywhere, so that everywhere the Syrian forces have enough superiority to attack, and not only to attack Daesh, but additionally even the US-supported comrades near the Jordanian border.

An interesting claim about those who remain at home instead of moving to Idlib from the various small enclaves. Many of the fighters have been searched by the Syrian government for deserting or simply running away from conscription. Of course, amnesty is amnesty, so no persecution of this follows. But the army can offer them now to join the army. Given that this gives a sure income, and given that they feel now that Assad will win, one should not wonder that a large number of those former fighters against Assad now accept this offer and join the Assad forces.

 

[Schmelzer]

There seem to be a lot of advances in the offensive started yesterday. Here some map of what has been reached yesterday and today:

The region is interesting economically because of phosphat mines. So, with taking this region there will be not only control over the Damaskus-Palmyra road, but also a possibility to revive the Syrian phosphat mining.

The offensive in East Aleppo has continued too, today 5 villages have been taken - the map is from yesterday, three of them are there yet marked as controlled by Daesh:

Remarkably, all these 5 villages are located South of the most Southern point they have reached yesterday. Looks like creating two pockets, and going around Maskanah.

East of Palmyra the Syrian army was also successful, several hills have been taken so that they have now fire control over the Arak gas field.

 

[Schmelzer]

A bad day for Daesh, the pocket South of Palmyra seems to be given up completely, the villages in that region (12,13,14) have been taken, the Damascus-Palmyra highway (Southwest from 14 via 13 and 9) is under Syrian army control, highway 45 from Al Busairy to the Zaza junction too. There is information about a Daesh convoy leaving the region being destroyed. The final map is something close to this:

This is an important strategic victory for the Syrian army. Qaratain is now completely safe from attacks, and Palmyra is safe from the Southern direction too, Syria has again control over its phosphat mines. A new enclave has been created. The black part of it is simply territory not cleaned yet, but there will be hardly any Daesh forces left. The group which is now completely encircled is a moderate one, they have not only a ceasefire with Syria, already over a long time, but cooperated with the Syrian army against Daesh. So, this enclave is not a problem for the Syrian army at all - but the Syrian side is satisfied that hopes of a connection between this group and the US-backed forces near the Jordanian border have been finished.

The other interesting news is from East Aleppo, where the Syrian army made big advances, a map with actual gain is the following:

and there has been even information about the Syrian army entering Maskanah. But this is yet unconfirmed, and I don't trust it, given that this is not the usual strategy of the Tiger forces. They prefer to encircle towns, like they have done in Deir Hafer. If they would enter Maskanah already today, that would mean Daesh has already left it, leaving only a small number of fanatics as defense.

 

[Schmelzer]

The information about entering Maskanah was indeed false, the Tiger forces followed their usual game, the main news yesterday was that Sakarija, the last village between the sugar factory on the M4 road and Maskanah, has been taken, so that the sugar factory became hard to defense. So, what appeared today seems logical: Some twit claims "Local Maskanah source: ISIS withdrew from the sugar factor and most villages north of Maskanah."

On the other, Western side of the East Aleppo front, Daesh collapsed completely. There is a long list of small villages taken by the Syrian army: Mawalih Shamaliyah and Mawalih Janubiyah, Butish -Ramadan - Tasat- Khirbet Al Dib - Khirbet al Hasan- Shiha-Wadi al Mawalah, Abbas, Jubb al-Tinah, Husun Hamudayn. That means, the whole regionEast of the lake has been taken.

Or another map, which is usually more pessimistic (quite obvious here):

 

[joepistole]

No. Islamistic law is a new invention, it aims to recover, revive something. Traditional law is simply traditional law. The case of Chechnya illustrates the difference, with the traditional Islam being Sufi, while the islamists are Wahabi - this is the islamic sect which rules Saudi Arabia, and pays terrorist Islam everywhere.

If there would be any justice in the Hague, those in the Hague as war criminals would be all the American presidents. As it is, the Hague is nothing but a Volksgerichtshof of the US.

Well, that's not exactly true, is it comrade? Islamic law isn't a new invention. It has been around for centuries, since the birth of the religion. Two, while the Wahhabi sect has and may continue to fund terrorism, it's not alone. Iran also funds Islamic terrorist groups around the world. The difference is Iran and Russia are buddies and long standing trading partners. Iran also funds and actively participates in propping up Assad's regime in Syria - you know the mass murder of civilians, bombing hospitals, etc.