Military Events in Syria and Iraq Thread #4

[Schmelzer]

An actual map of East Ghouta shows some yet small advances:

There is not only the advance from the East, but also some from the West, in Harasta, but this is an urban area, where every house counts, and too small to be visible on this scale. So, there may be the aim to cut Douma, the town in the North, from the South. Another direction of pressure is from the North, between Harasta and Douma. How much such a cutting, if successful, would give, is not clear, given that this whole area is full of tunnels.

Yesterday the Russians and Syrians have started a limited ceasefire for 5 hours every day, giving the population a chance to leave. It has not given much, and today joepistole's friends have attacked the Syrian army even during this time.

 

[CptBork]

That's a clever trick there, Schmelzer. Evade UN Security Council resolutions by simply relabeling all your enemies as Al Qaeda. I could swear it's as if a resolution was never passed in the first place. Clearly East Ghouta is yet another example of how the West has undermined Russia's rise to its rightful place as "Boss of Universe", a title presently usurped by Yankee imperialists. If round-the-clock carpet bombing of the hospitals and schools isn't enough to make the people beg for Assad's mercy and submit to his reasonable demands for sexual favours, it clearly means the rebels get more foreign support than Assad does, because we all know the people really love him to death and it's only Al Qaeda holding everyone back from openly saying it.

 

[Schmelzer]

That's a clever trick there, Schmelzer. Evade UN Security Council resolutions by simply relabeling all your enemies as Al Qaeda.

There is no necessity for this. It is sufficient to label them all as being associated with Al Qaeda, because groups and persons associated with Al Qaeda are also excluded from the UN ceasefire. As well as other terrorist groups according to the UN. Of course, the Russian diplomats know their job. And their job is certainly to accept resolutions only in such a form that Russia can live with this.

Further anti-Russian and anti-Syrian hate speech disposed of.

The Syrian army continues small progress, by taking an air defense base.

The news of the day was, of course, something different - the Putin speech to the Federation Council of Russia. While it contained also a lot about inner politics, the main point was directed to the US. It was, essentially, a declaration that the US rocket defense is now worthless against Russia, and will remain worthless for many years to come. With the description of several new weapons, which are not vulnerable not only by actual rocket defense systems but also by those imaginable in near future. First, there is the new ballistic rocket, Sarmat, the replacement of the Satana. It can now reach the US via the South pole, and its nuclear warheads (they are many) will not simply fall down but can change their direction, which makes it much harder to hit them, some of them with hypersound speed. Then, a nuclear engine so that a usual cruise missile can now, which the new engine, hit the US territory from everywhere, there is no limit to the length of the flight. Then, a submarine drone, a hundred times smaller than a usual submarine, and correspondingly much harder to detect, but can bring the full scale of a nuclear answer if Russia is attacked to America itself, as well as to their aircraft carriers. Then, a hypersound rocket, to be started from planes, with Mach 10 and 2000 km distance, able to take a nuclear warhead. And a strategic warhead, which drives high but in the atmosphere, changing its route all the time, with Mach 20.

 

[CptBork]

There is no necessity for this. It is sufficient to label them all as being associated with Al Qaeda, because groups and persons associated with Al Qaeda are also excluded from the UN ceasefire. As well as other terrorist groups according to the UN. Of course, the Russian diplomats know their job. And their job is certainly to accept resolutions only in such a form that Russia can live with this.

So basically anyone who resists Assad rule is automatically associated with Al Qaeda, because Al Qaeda also resists his rule. I guess then you might as well label all of America Al Qaeda, if you were willing to fight them instead of sacrificing elite troops to poke at them.

The news of the day was, of course, something different - the Putin speech to the Federation Council of Russia. While it contained also a lot about inner politics, the main point was directed to the US. It was, essentially, a declaration that the US rocket defense is now worthless against Russia, and will remain worthless for many years to come. With the description of several new weapons, which are not vulnerable not only by actual rocket defense systems but also by those imaginable in near future. First, there is the new ballistic rocket, Sarmat, the replacement of the Satana. It can now reach the US via the South pole, and its nuclear warheads (they are many) will not simply fall down but can change their direction, which makes it much harder to hit them, some of them with hypersound speed. Then, a nuclear engine so that a usual cruise missile can now, which the new engine, hit the US territory from everywhere, there is no limit to the length of the flight. Then, a submarine drone, a hundred times smaller than a usual submarine, and correspondingly much harder to detect, but can bring the full scale of a nuclear answer if Russia is attacked to America itself, as well as to their aircraft carriers. Then, a hypersound rocket, to be started from planes, with Mach 10 and 2000 km distance, able to take a nuclear warhead. And a strategic warhead, which drives high but in the atmosphere, changing its route all the time, with Mach 20.

None of this has anything to do with Syria, just more of the same old bullshit from you: "Just because I'm Russian and my ancestral homeland is a global laughingstock, it doesn't necessarily mean I'm an insecure loser- I'll go rape one of my neighbours to prove it!" Next Russia's going to announce that it's built the Death Star, fully tested, operational and all thermal vents appropriately shielded. Even if everything Putin just announced is 100% true, western missile shields up to this point have never been designed to repel more than a small attack from a fledgling rogue state, and to stop the entire Soviet arsenal would be prohibitively expensive as well as impractical. But hey if you guys want an arms race, more money down the toilet for you just like the last time you commie bastards tried it.

 

[Schmelzer]

The Syrian army has taken yet another small village. Small or not, the pocket is small too, so one small village a day and what remains after two-three weeks is Douma and the Damascus suburbs.
Some progress also on the urban (thus, much harder) Western front, where the situation comes closer to splitting Harasta from Douma.
The German NATO paper Spiegel published an interesting version of the attack of the US airforce near Deir Ezzor which killed some Russians. This version is quite interesting because it is quite close to the majority opinion of the Russian military forum which I consider the most reliable one. That means, there was some attack against the SDF of some mostly local tribal forces [which was not coordinated with the Russians, so that the Russians did not care about this when the US airforce contacted them - this was what the Russians thought.] Only after a repeated attack, the US airforce started to act. Russians did not participate in the attack itself, as well as the Syrian army, but some Russians of a private security firm were in the region from where the attack was started. This place was East of the Euphrates, so in the part where the US is allowed to fly according to the deconfliction agreements, but had been taken by the Syrian army, and, given that there was no open conflict, being there was not a problem. But, once the place was used to start an attack, the answer hit them too. So, the few Russian victims from that private security firm were simply at the wrong place at the wrong time. Which is, certainly, good news - so there was no US intention to hit Russians, as well as no reason for Russia to retaliate.
It is good news also for the reputation of the Spiegel in my eyes. The Spiegel had a quite good reputation many years ago but degenerated toward a second-class NATO propaganda paper during the last years. But it seems they are yet able to do some research on the ground.

So basically anyone who resists Assad rule is automatically associated with Al Qaeda, because Al Qaeda also resists his rule.

No necessity. Most of them have openly cooperated with Al Qaeda. Joined fronts, joined command centers and so on. They do not hide such things, they like to post agreements to join forces against the common enemy, because this is a success in a situation where internal fighting is common. As actually between Hatesh and the pro-Turkish gangs in Idlib. This is a quite comfortable situation - as long as there is the infighting, the Syrian army buys popcorn and wishes success to both sides. If the infighting stops, it stops with an agreement of further cooperation against the common enemy, the Syrian army, which is published by both sides in the net. So, they have unified with Al Qaeda again, and the West cannot even whine if both are bombed without openly supporting Al Qaeda. (Which, of course, not stops them from whining. There are enough people who don't even care, if Al Qaeda is against the Russians, it should be supported, and most others don't know.)

Even if everything Putin just announced is 100% true, western missile shields up to this point have never been designed to repel more than a small attack from a fledgling rogue state, and to stop the entire Soviet arsenal would be prohibitively expensive as well as impractical.

But to stop the few remains after a first attack would be practical.

But hey if you guys want an arms race, ....

No. The answer was asymmetric. Instead of caring about own rocket defense, Russians cared about good general air defense (which can be used in a conventional war and sold to others) which covers some part of rocket defense (cruise missiles) too and focussed on ways to make their attack abilities safe from the US rocket defense via hypersound and unpredictable maneuvers. Which, additionally, also makes the US aircraft carriers easy targets.

 

[CptBork]

No necessity. Most of them have openly cooperated with Al Qaeda. Joined fronts, joined command centers and so on. They do not hide such things, they like to post agreements to join forces against the common enemy, because this is a success in a situation where internal fighting is common. As actually between Hatesh and the pro-Turkish gangs in Idlib. This is a quite comfortable situation - as long as there is the infighting, the Syrian army buys popcorn and wishes success to both sides. If the infighting stops, it stops with an agreement of further cooperation against the common enemy, the Syrian army, which is published by both sides in the net. So, they have unified with Al Qaeda again, and the West cannot even whine if both are bombed without openly supporting Al Qaeda. (Which, of course, not stops them from whining. There are enough people who don't even care, if Al Qaeda is against the Russians, it should be supported, and most others don't know.)

Yes, whining about hundreds of thousands of civilians being trapped in their homes while your people bomb them like rats. Just like the dumbass Russkies whining about Kosovo and all the Serbian rats there, except Russians whine when they're prevented from carrying out massacres as opposed to whining about preventing them in the first place. Like I said, in your eyes (or so you claim), anyone not fighting against Al Qaeda is collaborating with it, even though that's a complete bullshit criterion and you know it. Meanwhile as long as it's Taliban or Hezbollah not attacking Moscow (for the time being), you're more than happy to work with them while they murder and rape somewhere else.

But to stop the few remains after a first attack would be practical.

No it wouldn't. But when the technology eventually reaches a point where a first strike on Russia would be practical, with systems like lasers and magnetic railguns to shoot down aircraft and missiles alike, having missiles with randomized flight paths won't be much help for you.

No. The answer was asymmetric. Instead of caring about own rocket defense, Russians cared about good general air defense (which can be used in a conventional war and sold to others) which covers some part of rocket defense (cruise missiles) too and focussed on ways to make their attack abilities safe from the US rocket defense via hypersound and unpredictable maneuvers. Which, additionally, also makes the US aircraft carriers easy targets.

US aircraft carriers won't be easy targets for you, because their own capabilities will out-range yours, including initial detection. But I encourage you to follow Wagner's example and pick a fight just to see what happens, since you clearly want one and won't settle until you get it.

 

[Schmelzer]

Yes, whining about hundreds of thousands of civilians being trapped in their homes while your people bomb them like rats.

That's the way how propaganda presents it. [Defenses of NATO-supported genocide against the Serbs living in Kosovo and other complete bs disposed of.]

But when the technology eventually reaches a point where a first strike on Russia would be practical, with systems like lasers and magnetic railguns to shoot down aircraft and missiles alike, having missiles with randomized flight paths won't be much help for you.

Thanks for essentially openly admitting that this is the real aim of the US rocket protection, and that protection against NK or Iran was simply cheap propaganda fake.

Whatever, the US has invested a lot of money into something completely worthless now. And even lasers will not help you much. If based on Earth, you will need a lot of them to create a protection against low-flying missiles. Then, I doubt that one can prevent a quite simple protection - to detonate immediately if hit by too much EM energy. That would mean that even the full US territory full of lasers would not protect you from powerful nuclear explosions all around your coast. Same for submarine drones.

I think modulo something unexpected, security on Earth between the leading military powers can be reached only based on the guarantee of the destruction of the aggressor by retaliation. I doubt that laser weapons will hit through water (not completely sure, maybe its possible, I have not checked this). If correct, given the attack possibilities through water, lasers will not change this. Even in this case, what about hidden bombs planted on the ground don't have to move to explode? They are currently forbidden, and this is, of course, good. But this can be changed easily - as the US has changed it, abrogating the regulation of rocket defense systems.

I laser weapons would change this, fine, Russia is developing them too, and information about that was part of the speech too. Geopolitically, a world where territory far away from the oceans could be protected by those close to the ocean are unprotectable would not favor the US, where the only regions away from the ocean are the flyover states, while the key regions of Russia are very far away from the oceans, and the most important ports are protected by thin straits which can be easily supervised.

US aircraft carriers won't be easy targets for you, because their own capabilities will out-range yours, including initial detection. But I encourage you to follow Wagner's example and pick a fight just to see what happens, since you clearly want one and won't settle until you get it.

US aircraft carriers are considered today easy targets not only for Russia but China too. And, don't worry, Russians regularly pick up fights to see what happens. Given that there is no state of war, this is happening in quite innocent-looking ways. You know, one plane approaching the territory of the other side, the other side reacting by starting their interceptors. And then they do what they would do in a real fight except shooting. Judging from what I read on Russian military forums, from guys who don't care about political correctness and are not at all afraid to tell uncomfortable truths, they are quite satisfied with the results, and with the US whining about Russians behaving "unprofessionally" coming (from the back) too close to the American planes. Another innocent way is comparing how Russian T 90 tanks by the Syrian army compare with Abrams or Leo tanks by Iraq or Turkish army. Of course, not optimal, because not about the latest versions and not with optimally trained crews, which makes a large difference for tanks, but, whatever, the Russians are quite satisfied here too, and think that this shows that T 90 is much superior to Abrams or Leo, and the Twitter community, looking at nice pictures of destroyed Leos and Abrams but none of the T 90s. (Ok, one was left by the crew and caught by the jihadists, and then destroyed by the Russians. But this is nothing Russians have to care about - they have no problem with their anti-tank weapons gaining popularity too.)

BTW, you may not have seen what I have added about the Wagner case. Feel free to google-translate what the Spiegel, known as a NATO propaganda paper, writes about this. http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausla...eschah-wirklich-in-deir-al-sor-a-1195901.html

 

[Schmelzer]

Wow, very serious advances in East Ghouta during the last days.
This was 2. of March:

The next day, the whole region South of this was taken:

and there was a full collapse of the defense lines of joepistole's friends:

The actual position seems close to the following:

 

[Schmelzer]

There is now also confirmed information that Al Shifuniya has been taken, and also some confirmation that Rayhan has been taken, on the other hand, there are also claims that Rayhan has not yet been taken.

On this map, it is marked as taken (Northern part, East of Douma). In the South, there are claims, supported by fotos, that Muhammadiyah has been taken.

There are claims about negotiations with the forces holding Mesraba. According to the sources, the guys from this town are quite moderate, so that a success of such negotiations is quite plausible. From the point of view of the factions, most of what has been taken up to now are territory which was controlled by Jaysh al-Islam, which has Douma as their main base. So, the first part of the operation was reducing that gang to Douma itself. Having taken the center of the pocket, the Syrian army is now also in a comfortable position to attack the South-Western part of the side which was not as heavily fortified. These forces, mainly Faylaq al-Rahman, are even more hardcore, the main Al Qaeda power is there. Muhammadiyah was controlled by Faylaq al-Rahman. Harasta itself is held by yet another gang. It looks like the Syrian army aims to split the different gangs, which would allow starting negotiations with them separately.

 

[Schmelzer]

Today the Syrian army was advancing mainly taking some farms, and starting negotiations. Claims are about negotiations with Saqba, Hamouriyah, and Mesraba. And there are first claims about the success of the negotiations with Hamouriyah. There is information about demonstrations of local people in favor of peace with the Syrian army and a video with a Syrian flag at a central place in Hamouriyah.

 

[Yazata]

Today the Syrian army was advancing mainly taking some farms, and starting negotiations. Claims are about negotiations with Saqba, Hamouriyah, and Mesraba.

I believe that the Syrian army is shelling Mesraba as we speak, perhaps in preparation for a ground assault.

There have been strong indications that they've taken Bayt Siwa on your map below. The Syrian army has reportedly already claiming it and civilians fleeing to Duma have been quoted as saying "it's finished". But Jaysh al Islam denies the village has fallen.

And as your map shows, they are close to cutting the Hammuriyah-Duma road. (It's probably already effectively cut, since the government forces are in position to fire on any vehicles that try to pass.)

All in all, they've taken about half of Eastern Ghouta in the last two weeks (the less densely populated half since the western edge is inside Damascus). If they push through Mesraba from the east, they might be able to cut Eastern Ghouta in two, separating Duma.

[/QUOTE]

 

[Schmelzer]

The Syrian army has taken Beit Sawa, and try to cut the East Ghouta pocket into two parts.

The Syrian army has also entered Mesraba. The frontline in the South is unclear, there is information that they have taken the Aftaris farms and encircled the air defense battalion. There was a foto claimed to be taken at these farms, but it does not show anything relevant.

A first claim has been seen that the pocket is cut into two parts, but yet completely unreliable.

 

[Schmelzer]

The Syrian army has taken Mesraba from the East. They have also reached, from the North, the M5 highway. And from the West, they have taken the roundabout on the same M5 highway. The most important point here is, of course, the taking of Mesraba:

As one can see, there is now nothing but less than 1 km green fields for two different cuts. This would lead to three pockets. Remarkably, all three pockets are controlled by three different terrorist gangs, and roughly the main loss of territory was by only one gang, Jaish al Islam, with its main base in Douma, the strongest one, Saudi supported. They may have some interest now in peace talks, it was this gang where all the humanitarian support has been delivered, and they have tried now to get rid of the connection to Hatesh (al Qaida). A small group (13 people with families) of Al Qaida has agreed to be delivered to Idlib out of Douma.

The small pocket in the center - Western part, Harasta, is controlled by some gang which is believed to be under Turkish influence, so there is also some base to hope that negotiations may be possible.

The part in the South is the most closely connected one with Al Qaida, but on the other hand the most diverse. In some of the remaining town (suburbs), there have been some pro-Assad demonstrations of the local population to force the terrorist gangs to leave their town.

 

[Yazata]

The Syrian army has taken Mesraba from the East... This would lead to three pockets.

 

[Schmelzer]

A quite optimistic card, I have not seen yet any actual confirmation for the split into three parts already being finished. There is fire control so that there will be, essentially, almost no communication (moreover, given that there are three different gangs, which from time to time have even fought against each other), but no actual connection yet.

The most optimistic I have heard was the roundabout being taken from the South, and some gas station on the M5 taken from the North. Today I have seen informations about advances in Madyara.

The Turks seem now close to taking Afrin.

 

[Schmelzer]

Now it is finished. First, Muraselon (a quite conservative source, so if they announce this is for sure) announces that the Tiger forces have taken Madiyara and met the forces in the vehicle management base, giving the following map:

and there has been a video from the meeting. Then, there is also the information that the group from the North has reached Madyara too, with the following map:

Here also a map from Afrin, where the Kurdish resistance seems to collapse:

 

[sculptor]

divide and conquer?

 

[Schmelzer]

In Ghouta, of course. The subdivision is along the lines of the three greatest gangs. I think the Turks also like to subdivide the Kurds.

 

[Schmelzer]

Joepistole's friends have created a big union to attack the Syrian army and taken today two villages and one town. The Syrian army has gotten some reinforcements and, also today, retaken all they have lost. https://www.almasdarnews.com/articl...-offensive-degenerates-into-wipe-out-session/ It looks like there was not even a fight when they have taken the town, but a trap.

In East Ghouta there are fightings in Hamouriha, there are claims the Syrian army has reached the center. Jisreen has been taken by the Syrian army.

 

[Schmelzer]

There seems to have been some sort of agreement between the sides in Hamouriha - what is established fact is that the terrorists have now allowed the civilians to leave the region, and many thousands are actually leaving the dangerous region. There are also claims that the fighters have left as Hamouriha as Saqba. If true, this would be already a significant reduction of the Southern pocket.

In the Douma pocket, there also seems to be some ceasefire, with the population being allowed to leave, and with unconfirmed claims about negotiations about surrender with transport to Idlib.

The Turks have almost completely encircled Afrin, but clearly intentionally leave a thin corridor for the civilians to leave.