Japanese N-Plant Explosion
- Thread starter ULTRA
- Start date
ReutersBreakingNews
Workers at Japan nuclear plant unable to continue work at reactor no.2 due to high radiation levels - Nuclear safety agency
Looks like a serious development. I'm gonna have a check around to see if I can find out what's going on. God, I'm nosey!
Workers at Japan nuclear plant unable to continue work at reactor no.2 due to high radiation levels - Nuclear safety agency
Looks like a serious development. I'm gonna have a check around to see if I can find out what's going on. God, I'm nosey!
Power-plant boss admits that they should have predicted the tsunami:
"The tsunami was unusual, but we should have assumed even that level," Norio Tsuzumi, vice president of Tokyo Electric Power Co. <9501>, said at a news conference here, referring to the March 11 disaster that hit the plant.
"In the end, we were too optimistic," Tsuzumi said.
http://jen.jiji.com/jc/eng?g=eco&k=2011032201187
"The tsunami was unusual, but we should have assumed even that level," Norio Tsuzumi, vice president of Tokyo Electric Power Co. <9501>, said at a news conference here, referring to the March 11 disaster that hit the plant.
"In the end, we were too optimistic," Tsuzumi said.
http://jen.jiji.com/jc/eng?g=eco&k=2011032201187
But that's not the way to bet, is it - if you're laying your money down. Or the ecological and economic future of your major agricultural regions.trippy said:
Bet on the judgment of the people who have been getting it right all along, would be more evidence based, more fact based, less speculative.
? Nothing is inevitable about blunders like this. They don't have to happen.trippy said:
We have no reliable means of making such technical risk assessments with the requisite confidence, though. We only have the science we have - pretending we have a mature and adequately capable scientific and theoretical basis for earthquake prediction, for example, is foolish. We could easily end up having to divert massive resources to battling spinout reactors, in the wake of devastating natural disasters for which we need everything we've got.trippy said:
I'll bet on Science, thanks, even if it does mean getting it wrong and putting up with a hue and cry from time to time.
This is a windup right?
Ha ha, very funny.
Utter BS.
And it's earthquake forecasting, not prediction, prediction means something else. And the age of the science is irrelevant. The problem here revolves around your ignorance of it, not the science itself.
You've demonstrated your ignorance repeatedly now.
Here's a picture of the director, Akio Kamori. Clearly over-reacting. Maybe he needs a pep talk by some sciforumers.
Oh please histrionics in a way of life in some cultures.
Japanese men are not renowned for weeping in public, but it seems to have become de rigeur for company directors, when all else fails.
Toyoda did it last year when his cost cutting (greed) caused massive technical problems in Toyota cars.
Boo Hoo Hoo. My cars k-killed people because I'm a greedy bastard.
http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nb20100227a2.html
And they invest in businesses with no return for 30 years.
Strange people.
Toyoda did it last year when his cost cutting (greed) caused massive technical problems in Toyota cars.
Boo Hoo Hoo. My cars k-killed people because I'm a greedy bastard.
http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nb20100227a2.html
And they invest in businesses with no return for 30 years.
Strange people.
Last edited:
Not at all, but those kind of financing decisions (huge upfront costs, long time to get to a positive ROI) is why power companies are granted a Monopoly and their rates are regulated.
Thus they can sell bonds to get the money to build these plants because the people who buy the bonds are reasonably assured that their investment is safe.
Arthur
The people who invest in the company will want a return in the first year, and every year. The debt may not be paid for 30 years, but that does not mean that the company makes no profit.
Lets say the plant costs 3 Billion. A company borrows the money, and the total repayment over 30 years with interest is 6 Billion.
For those thirty years, everything the company makes, minus overheads, which includes the loan repayment, is profit.
The management, shareholders etc will be paid according to those profits.
They don't wait 30 years.
Who the hell would invest in that?
Lets say the plant costs 3 Billion. A company borrows the money, and the total repayment over 30 years with interest is 6 Billion.
For those thirty years, everything the company makes, minus overheads, which includes the loan repayment, is profit.
The management, shareholders etc will be paid according to those profits.
They don't wait 30 years.
Who the hell would invest in that?
And I didn't say the Investors waited 30 years for a return, did I?
And I didn't say the Company didn't make a profit each year, did I?
Because neither of them have anything to do with the original issue you raised:
Originally you said:
When I told you it was in their financial interest to do so, you said:
But there is NO contribution to the profit of the company for a Nuke until it's been built and in operation for decades (See Wiki link posted earlier)
And so if it takes 30 years to pay off the Bonds, which the company has to do, Regardless of what happens to the Nuclear power plant, then CLEARLY it is in their financial interest for the plant to reliably generate power for LONGER than it takes to pay back the investors for the financing required to build it. Which means they absolutely are interested in the long term geophysical safety of the plant.
As far as Executive bonuses go, once the reactor's bonds have been paid off (~30 years) that's when these plants have the potential to become a REAL moneymaker and generate nice profits and thus nice bonuses.
So you were WRONG, building Nukes has nothing to do with short term interests for the execs at the power company or the investors.
Arthur
Last edited:
I think you are posing this question.
Why would a company do something that would ruin its reputation and undermine its long term viability, for short term profits?
And do this even if it risked bankruptcy?
My answer to this is that they do it because they make cuts without insuring that standards are not lowered.
Yes, it is blinkered thinking and ultimately folly, but it happens all the time.
Are you saying that it doesn't happen?
Why would a company do something that would ruin its reputation and undermine its long term viability, for short term profits?
And do this even if it risked bankruptcy?
My answer to this is that they do it because they make cuts without insuring that standards are not lowered.
Yes, it is blinkered thinking and ultimately folly, but it happens all the time.
Are you saying that it doesn't happen?
You said:
Nope.
Nobody makes a dime that first year.
In fact it takes nearly three decades for a Nuclear Reactor to be in the Black because you have to pay all that money up front to build the thing (which takes a long time in itself) and only after it has been operating at over 80% of the time 24/7 do you finally start showing a positive ROI because the cost of fuel is low.
So NO, there is absolutely no incentive to risk any damage to the plant since you have to have it running for so friggin long to make your bonus.
We were talking about the Execs of the company and the impact of siting decisions on the Nuke in that first year, not the investors.
So, in the context of your original argument:
Nobody at the COMPANY makes a dime of PROFITS off of the REACTOR that first year.
Indeed, they don't make a positive ROI off of a reactor for nearly 3 decades.
Which is the point you keep trying to avoid.
Arthur
Last edited:
No, I'm not saying that doesn't happen.
What I'm saying is there is NO SUCH THING as "short term profits" when it comes to building a Nuclear Reactor since no matter what you do, you won't get into the black for nearly 3 decades.
Arthur
Well, if we are not disagreeing what are we arguing for?
The Japanese are well known for thier stoicism and quiet dignity. I suggest you learn something about them before making such baltantly ignorant comments. Histrionics is not part of Japanese culture, and never has been.
"Extermely High" levels of radiation have been found in soil many miles from the stricken plant at Fukushima. The testing showed very high levels of Cesium up to 5cm deep in the soil. This has a very long half-life and is readily taken up by plants. Any animals eating these plants will become contaminated, and Cesium concentrated in the bones and muscles. The article in the Japanese news media NHK reads:
"Japanese authorities have detected a concentration of a radioactive substance 1,600 times higher than normal in soil at a village, 40 kilometers away from the troubled nuclear power plant in Fukushima Prefecture.
The disaster task force in Fukushima composed of the central and local governments surveyed radioactive substances in soil about 5 centimeters below the surface at 6 locations around the plant from last Friday through Tuesday.
The results announced on Wednesday show that 163,000 becquerels of radioactive cesium-137 per kilogram of soil has been detected in Iitate Village, about 40 kilometers northwest of the plant.
Gakushuin University Professor Yasuyuki Muramatsu, an expert on radiation in the environment, says that normal levels of radioactive cesium-137 in soil are around 100 becquerels at most."
Clearly, much more radiation has escaped than we were led to believe.
http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/23_28.html
"Japanese authorities have detected a concentration of a radioactive substance 1,600 times higher than normal in soil at a village, 40 kilometers away from the troubled nuclear power plant in Fukushima Prefecture.
The disaster task force in Fukushima composed of the central and local governments surveyed radioactive substances in soil about 5 centimeters below the surface at 6 locations around the plant from last Friday through Tuesday.
The results announced on Wednesday show that 163,000 becquerels of radioactive cesium-137 per kilogram of soil has been detected in Iitate Village, about 40 kilometers northwest of the plant.
Gakushuin University Professor Yasuyuki Muramatsu, an expert on radiation in the environment, says that normal levels of radioactive cesium-137 in soil are around 100 becquerels at most."
Clearly, much more radiation has escaped than we were led to believe.
http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/23_28.html
Last edited:
Not sure I'd go with your conclusions.
You can't use "1,600 times more" as a guideline as to concentration, since the normal levels are so low that a multiplier like that doesn't mean anything.
You have to go with mRem/hr.
And there are a few hot spots and a relatively narrow band running NW of the plants that appears to have got a pretty decent dose.
But we knew that.
We had 3 reactors run without coolant and several Spent Fuel Ponds boil away, and quite a few times the workers had to pull back because the amount of radiation being released precluded working on the site, so I think we have been getting a reasonable account of radiation release.
Like from these maps:
http://www.mext.go.jp/component/english/__icsFiles/afieldfile/2011/03/23/1303997_2316.pdf
See Site 32 and 33, notice that they are much higher than the other stations, and that's roughly where Iitate is.
Arthur
You can't use "1,600 times more" as a guideline as to concentration, since the normal levels are so low that a multiplier like that doesn't mean anything.
You have to go with mRem/hr.
And there are a few hot spots and a relatively narrow band running NW of the plants that appears to have got a pretty decent dose.
But we knew that.
We had 3 reactors run without coolant and several Spent Fuel Ponds boil away, and quite a few times the workers had to pull back because the amount of radiation being released precluded working on the site, so I think we have been getting a reasonable account of radiation release.
Like from these maps:
http://www.mext.go.jp/component/english/__icsFiles/afieldfile/2011/03/23/1303997_2316.pdf
See Site 32 and 33, notice that they are much higher than the other stations, and that's roughly where Iitate is.
Arthur
This sounds bad, but 1600 times not much is still bugger all.
They should be able to map the distribution of the cesium-137 using gamma ray cameras (662 keV).
1 Becquerel = 1 decay event per second.
1g of Cs-137 has an activity of 3.2 terabecquerels
163,000 becquerels per kg equates to 50ppb of Cs-137 in the soil.
The Goiânia accident involved 50TBq of Cs-137.
The soil contamination in Fukushima is more on a par with the Acerinox accident, the ashes of which had 600-1400 Becquerels of Cs-137.
Both Goiânia and Acerinox, incidentally, involved medical sources of Cs-137.