Japanese N-Plant Explosion

[ElectricFetus]

New generation multi-layered photovoltaic cells look promising for the future, when thier price comes down a bit more.

That an understatement, Multi-junction GaAs cells arn't likely to get cheap any time soon. Rather I would put my bet on low efficiency printable solar panels like nanosolar simple economics of it is that sure a Tri-layer GaAs cell can get efficiencies of 30% and a Printed out organics CIGS cell gets 10%, but the latter cost less then a tenth of the former, thus you get more dollars per watt with the latter.

Again the problem is not simply the need for cheap photovoltaics but also for a means of storing the power, grid energy storage, this means there is nothing wrong with installing solar power now, but we will still need baseline power sources like nuclear power.

As did reactors 2 and 3 at Fukushima, apparently, as far as we know.

But we weren't discussing that - we were discussing the possibility of worse, which you had assessed at 0 as soon as sea water pumping had begun.

I don't know what those chances were but now after the fact that the situation seems to be stable, and that the possibility of worse are now very unlikely.

 

[adoucette]

As did reactors 2 and 3 at Fukushima, apparently, as far as we know.

But we weren't discussing that - we were discussing the possibility of worse, which you had assessed at 0 as soon as sea water pumping had begun.

I predicted there wasn't going to be a meltdown after they put the seawater in and there hasn't been.

UPDATE AS OF 11:20 A.M. EDT, FRIDAY, MARCH 18:

Reactors 1, 2 and 3 at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant are in stable condition, with workers continuing to provide seawater cooling into the reactors. Containment integrity is believed to be intact on reactors 1, 2 and 3, and containment building pressures are elevated but are within design limits.

So, considering the low levels of radiation released since this event started, and a lot more would have been released had the core started to melt (again, see Wiki table I linked to previously), there is no indication that there was any melting of the core. Damage yes, melting no.


Arthur

 

[ULTRA]

Yeah, I'm not saying PV cells are the answer. I'm saying they are getting better as time goes on and eventually the price will come down. You can get a return on them, but they take a while to pay for themselves. As a scientist, I am certain nuclear energy will prove to be a valuable source of energy for a long time to come yet. How this crisis is handled will affect directly the pace of renewal of these systems. Confidence will undoubtedly be dented, as the situation in China and Germany shows. Overreaction is not the province of reactors alone! People are very fickle.

 

[ElectricFetus]

Yeah, I'm not saying PV cells are the answer. I'm saying they are getting better as time goes on and eventually the price will come down. You can get a return on them, but they take a while to pay for themselves. As a scientist, I am certain nuclear energy will prove to be a valuable source of energy for a long time to come yet. How this crisis is handled will affect directly the pace of renewal of these systems. Confidence will undoubtedly be dented, as the situation in China and Germany shows. Overreaction is not the province of reactors alone! People are very fickle.

Yes but that fickleness as you call it (I would call it unwarranted and illogical hysteria) is a problem of the people not nuclear power. At its likely that the state of mind of the people will cause fossil fuels to be used longer, causing more pollution and death.

 

[ULTRA]

Sky news reports reactors still "dangerously hot"
IAEA says "Very serious"

Concern is rising that officials have not been telling the whole truth (surprise surprise)
Further concerns growing for radioactive run-off and seepage. (well, all that contaminated water has to be going somewhere)

Decay elements will continue to produce excessive heat for months to come..

 

[ULTRA]

Not unwarranted, clearly. Have you not been following events? People don't like being poisoned.

 

[ElectricFetus]

Not unwarranted, clearly. Have you not been following events? People don't like being poisoned.

No one is dying, its not even likely anyone will die from this, period, therefor it is unwarranted hysteria, hell more people are probably going to die now from iodine allergies and poisoning than this nuclear incident. And if no once likes to be poisoned why do they keep burning oil and coal and don't get hysterical about all the cancers and lung disease and water pollution, etc, that causes. No, people don't like the thought of being poisoned, now what is poisoning them and how much is irrelevant, it is only what they notice or what they think is poisoning them that they care about.

 

[ULTRA]

Try telling that to the workers in the plant who are on a "Suicide Mission". Or the people evicted from thier homes, or the residents of Tokyo (all 35 million of them). Try telling them they're all hysterical and overreacting. Your butt is nice and safe and cosy, thiers is a life of worry, privation and loss. I think they are better able to decide what level of "hysteria" is required. They have a long history of being lied to by scientists. Lied to. Take a moment to think about that. Why should they suddenly believe in them now?
The only hysterics I've seen is from the USA. The Japs have been exceptionally calm, dignified and courageous.

 

[adoucette]

No workers at the plant are on a suicide mission.

They keep personal track of the radiation received and if it exceeds the limit they have to leave the plant. The limit is well below expected physical harm.

Radiation in Tokyo has not been elevated to levels that would cause any harm to humans at all.

Yes people were evacuated from a 20 km area while they get this under control (considering it's on the coast a lot of those people were going to have to evacuate anyway) but that's really not that big of a price to pay for 40 years of electricity.

Since I'm into predictions, I'm now predicting that the radius of exclusion will be cut in half within two weeks.

Arthur

 

[Trippy]

Facts are what you continue to dismiss, wholesale.

For example: Any panic actually visible anywhere here, oh fact-based one? Any speculation?

Suppose you provide evidence of panic and speculation, to compare with the great piles of evidence of false confidence and illegitimate, speculation-based reassurance.

What you trying to argue against is a realistic, sober, fact based assessment of the current state of geological expertise, as it applies to risk assessments when designing and siting nuclear power plants.
Yawn at the Japanese. They need some comic relief about now, and beating the shit out of some "expert" might be good for their mental health.
Government and foreign subsidy, and shirking some major bills (such as waste handling). French people pay high taxes, have you noticed?

If all you've got is regurgitating the same vomitous nonsense that has already been addressed, then I think we're done here.

 

[ElectricFetus]

Try telling that to the workers in the plant who are on a "Suicide Mission".

Most likely a gross media exaggeration.

Or the people evicted from thier homes

A temporary measure and at present radiation levels outside of the plant are technically unwarranted.

or the residents of Tokyo (all 35 million of them).

Considering the negligible amounts reaching them, yes any worry about that is unwarranted.

Try telling them they're all hysterical and overreacting.

I would! But for now I'm telling you that.

Your butt is nice and safe and cosy, thiers is a life of worry, privation and loss. I think they are better able to decide what level of "hysteria" is required. They have a long history of being lied to by scientists. Lied to. Take a moment to think about that. Why should they suddenly believe in them now?

I don't think having been lied to before about this subject warrants hysteria, its not hard to look up the research and compare. For example look up how harmful a particular radiation dosage is. Eating 10 bananas for example exposes you to 1 uSv (because of radioactive potassium in the bananas), a chest X-ray is 100-300 uSv. Maximum dosage with actually detected cancer rate increases by a fraction of a percent is 100 mSv and there is significant evidence that exposure to less then that might not increase cancer rates.

The only hysterics I've seen is from the USA. The Japs have been exceptionally calm, dignified and courageous.

Probably because the Japanese are dealing with a massive disaster that actually killed thousand of people a and physically cause damaged to their economy and infrastructure and don't have that much time to worry about an issue that can only hear them in fear alone.

 

[ULTRA]

EF, the entire board of Tokyo Electric had to resign in disgrace! They're proven liars! It's very easy to sit there and criticise them from afar. I put it that to be there puts a whole different complection on things. And, its not good by anybody's standards. And it's still not over by a long stretch. Pity the poor Americans suffering a millionth of the radiation of Japan! They should have such worries!

 

[iceaura]

I predicted there wasn't going to be a meltdown after they put the seawater in and there hasn't been

You said meltdown was impossible - no chance - once they started pumping in seawater. That was, and remains, wrong.

If all you've got is regurgitating the same vomitous nonsense that has already been addressed, then I think we're done here.

If you ever see fit to address one of the issues I raised, beyond repetition of the irrelevancies already posted, I'll be happy to continue the discussion as it progresses.

I don't think having been lied to before about this subject warrants hysteria

Nobody is being hysterical here. Having been lied to for fifty years about these events does warrant expressions of doubt, and certain assumptions of possibility - and if you go back through the thread, you'll find that such skepticism and recognitions of possibility led to more accurate assessments of the situation in Japan, on the part of those employing them.

Recall that the people who failed to bring a normal amount of skepticism and common sense have been saying stuff like this:

3/12:

Spokesman Yukio Edano says the metal container sheltering a nuclear reactor was not affected by an explosion that destroyed the building it's in. The radiation around the plant did not rise after the blast but instead is decreasing, he said, adding that pressure in the reactor was also decreasing"
- - -
"Even if that {full meltdown} happens it would be an economic event, like 3-Mile Island, not a significant radiation event."
- - -
Modern nuclear reactors are actually pretty safe, and even this one was essentially earthquake proof. The problem here was associated with the tsunami,
- - -
I think part of the problem is radiophobia and the news media know it and are milking the easy to terrorize public for what its worth
- - -
The concrete will save them even though their safety technology is 30 years old.
- - -

3/13

They may be teetering on the edge of economic disaster but so far there is no indication that any of the containment vessels are at risk.
- - -
Now what is happening with Fukushima power plant is not likely to kill anyone from radiation, the plants have containment domes and the radiation leak is not likely to be anywhere near that of Chernobyl,
- - -
No, if they can't keep the fuel cool (and no reason at this time to think they can't) then yes, it will melt down, and then it will be much like 3 Mile Island where the Reactor is turned into a pile of junk. An economic disaster.

In contrast to Chernobyl there is nothing to burn in this reactor and the containment dome, like the one at 3 Mile Island, was designed to both survive an earthquake and handle a loss of coolant accident with only a very limited release of radioactivity.
- - -
Not exactly true.
We can predict temps and pressures in a melt down situation, so we can design the containment dome to, well contain it, as it did in 3 Mile Island.
- - -
I don't know what the play books are, but the current situation is certianly not outside the realm of predictable or even exceptional.
- - -
and breach of the containment structure.
”
Now I think you are just making shit up.
Base on WHAT information do you make this claim
- - -

 

[ULTRA]

Units 3 and 4 "dangerously hot" officials' fear of meltdown grows. Heightened radioactivity recorded. condition of reactors considered desperate.

 

[ElectricFetus]

EF, the entire board of Tokyo Electric had to resign in disgrace! They're proven liars!

This is all a red herring, if you want to argue about trusting corrupt government officials that a different topic from the safety of nuclear power and radiation, one for another thread.

Nobody is being hysterical here.

I wasn't talking about here.

Having been lied to for fifty years about these events does warrant expressions of doubt, and certain assumptions of possibility - and if you go back through the thread, you'll find that such skepticism and recognitions of possibility led to more accurate assessments of the situation in Japan, on the part of those employing them.

Oh so you saying I and others like me who provided skepticism and calm educated evaluation were right?

Units 3 and 4 "dangerously hot" officials' fear of meltdown grows. Heightened radioactivity recorded. condition of reactors considered desperate.

Citation? Cause I can't find anything like that here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_Fukushima_nuclear_accidents

 

[ULTRA]

I get my information from various sources. I don't think I've said anything that's been proven wrong throughout this crisis. Perhaps you might like to show me where, EF. I even showed your ridiculous prediction that radiation would not turn up in America was wrong, so perhaps you'd like to check your own sources, mine are good.

Oh, but you're relying on wiki. Haahaaha!

 

[DwayneD.L.Rabon]

Well,
Appearantly the situation at the Nuclear Faclity had favorable conditions for this accident, occuring in a natural disater. Interms of Nuclear reactions within a reactor.
At the time of the accident the subatomic particles were behaving in frequence, and particle cleavage as Zirconium, which having a low cross section allowed many rampant particles to escape. (it would not suprise me if at the time plant workers where adjusting or about to adjust the rate of neutron feeding to the reactors.) This behavior of particle cleavage as Zirconium is the likly base factor in why running a nuclear reactor is just premissable for energy gathering.
When the natural disater happened this Zirconium sub particle phase was the state of nuclear reactions in the reactor and the phase had existed for about 7 days, for about 10 hours of each day (Generally defining that such a phase exist for about 40 to 50% of operating time of a nuclear reactor). The dominace of particle cleavage as Zirconium has been in gradual decline for about 14 days and will come to a complete sharp end on March 19th at which time nuclear reactions will increases definitly causing formation of various isotpes, this has been alreadly been happing with the decrease in zirconium phase dominace. so at this point on the 19th things start heating up creating more difficulty, however it appears that radaition escape from the core of the reactor will decrease, and be centralized or retained better within the reactor core. The event that rampant particle have previously escaped will be a benifit, but from the 19th they will being to increase in number once again. The rate of true disaster on the 19th is a one in six chance (1 in 6 odds).

Most of the radation that we have seen untill today is ventilation, wherein 10 hours of the day have ventilation, and 14 hours have been energy formation within the reactor. as of the 19th of March it will be mostly energy formation, this existing at a formation rate less that the previous.




DwayneD.L.Rabon

 

[Dywyddyr]

The sooner you get an education the sooner you'll stop posting crap like the above.

 

[Believe]

Well,
Appearantly the situation at the Nuclear Faclity had favorable conditions for this accident, occuring in a natural disater. Interms of Nuclear reactions within a reactor.
At the time of the accident the subatomic particles were behaving in frequence, and particle cleavage as Zirconium, which having a low cross section allowed many rampant particles to escape. (it would not suprise me if at the time plant workers where adjusting or about to adjust the rate of neutron feeding to the reactors.) This behavior of particle cleavage as Zirconium is the likly base factor in why running a nuclear reactor is just premissable for energy gathering.
When the natural disater happened this Zirconium sub particle phase was the state of nuclear reactions in the reactor and the phase had existed for about 7 days, for about 10 hours of each day (Generally defining that such a phase exist for about 40 to 50% of operating time of a nuclear reactor). The dominace of particle cleavage as Zirconium has been in gradual decline for about 14 days and will come to a complete sharp end on March 19th at which time nuclear reactions will increases definitly causing formation of various isotpes, this has been alreadly been happing with the decrease in zirconium phase dominace. so at this point on the 19th things start heating up creating more difficulty, however it appears that radaition escape from the core of the reactor will decrease, and be centralized or retained better within the reactor core. The event that rampant particle have previously escaped will be a benifit, but from the 19th they will being to increase in number once again. The rate of true disaster on the 19th is a one in six chance (1 in 6 odds).

Most of the radation that we have seen untill today is ventilation, wherein 10 hours of the day have ventilation, and 14 hours have been energy formation within the reactor. as of the 19th of March it will be mostly energy formation, this existing at a formation rate less that the previous.




DwayneD.L.Rabon

Way to just make crap up.

Look I can do that too.

Did you know that radiation can cause beneficial mutations? I mean the chance is only about one and a billion (or worse) but there are 6 billion people on earth. That means that once the radiation from this disaster reaches around the world up to 6 people will have super powers. I call this the silver lining.

 

[ULTRA]

The sooner you get an education the sooner you'll stop posting crap like the above.

I couldn't agree more. Utter brainlessness. Go away, get out of my thread. I only want people here who knowsomething about the disaster and you, Dwayne are not one of them. Go find some other thread to spread your ignorance.