Irreducible Stupidity

Wellwisher you are suffering from a simple misunderstanding regarding probability.

Your thinking:

(1) Something is complex and amazing.
(2) The probability of that particular complex and amazing thing occuring is incredibly small.
(3) Therefore that thing must have had ID.
He's probably an American. My people are functionally innumerate (who else would have invented the sub-prime mortgage and then destroyed their own economy with it?) but their biggest weakness in numeracy is understanding very large numbers. That's what makes them incapable of understanding the implications of probability, rather than just the mechanical calculations.

The probability of a particular complex and amazing thing occurring may be incredibly small... but if you have an equally incredibly large space-time continuum, very improbable events will occur.

There are roughly 10^22 (ten sextillion in American nomenclature) stars in the universe. We don't know what percentage of them have planets but since we've already found a few in our own neighborhood we can be cautious and predict that only one star out of ten million will have a planet, and that still makes 10^15 (one quadrillion) planets in the universe. That's still a heckuva lot of planets.

So, multiplied by one quadrillion planets, what are the odds now that life may arise on one of them, however complex and amazing it may be?

Of course it is this one, where we're sitting around talking about this complex and amazing phenomenon. But that's no coincidence. If language and reading and writing and science and math are going to be developed, they will be developed on a planet that already has life. Duh?

The people on Mars won't be sitting around talking about this because there aren't any people on Mars.
 
They will never become rational or well-informed. Look at "Jan Ardena", right here on this forum, after years.

What we need to do is prevent them from becoming influential. Treating the thousandth repetition of their goofball assertions with patient and longwinded respect is damaging. They simply use the opportunity for more repetition, to dominate the public discussion by volume. That domination is the goal.

And you're not doing anything else than they are - you, too, want to dominate.
 
The 'friend' that I'm debating is saying that I'm arrogant and silly for thinking I can explain how her examples are not irriducibly complex (before even giving me a chance to).

I have a feeling that this 'friend' will not be a friend much longer if she keeps up the name calling.

And if I'm arrogant for saying IC can be explained... what is she for saying that it can't be?

...fucking christians...
 
And you all get to sing along at the end

Okay, now I know why this thread had me a bit confused. Irreducible complexity is a term apparently coined sometime around 1992. I was nineteen years old or so. Which means that I had already survived Lutheran confirmation and a Jesuit high school, to say the least.

Which, in turn, means I had already considered the fundamental argument behind irreducible complexity and found it lacking.

The answer should be an answer, not a question.

When the answer, in science, is a question, it becomes the next question.

To wit: God created the Universe because it is so complex. How could pure chance result in us sitting here and having this discussion?

We all know the answer, right?

I don't know. Why don't you go find out?

Even Aristotle could figure it out. Why does the rock fall to the ground? Because it has falling properties. Now, technically, that can be construed as a correct, albeit grossly imprecise, answer.

Because God says it must? Well, sure, that can technically be construed as a correct, albeit uselessly imprecise answer, but the God involved there necessarily transcends the conditions of the minor deities people assert in their religious faith. Such a "God" is entirely irrelevant.

At any rate, I digress. The bottom line is that this "irreducible complexity" argument was done away with ... uh ... well, so long ago that even the Jesuits get it.

Indeed, it is something of a psychological alchemy. Clive Barker wrote, "Nothing ever begins", and once you understand what he means by that, and learn to apply it, certain patterns, cycles, and themes start to emerge in life and history.

Nothing ever begins.
...There is no first moment; no single word or place from which this or any other story springs.
...The threads can always be traced back to some earlier tale, and to the tales that preceded that; though as the narrator's voice recedes the connections will seem to grow more tenuous, for each age will want the tale told as if it were of its own making.
...Thus the pagan will be sanctified, the tragic become laughable; great lovers will stoop to sentiment, and demons dwindle to clockwork toys.
...Nothing is fixed. In and out the shuttle goes, fact and fiction, mind and matter woven into patterns that may have only this in common: that hidden among them is a filigree that will, with time, become a world.


—Clive Barker
Weaveworld

Starting in the late 1980s, at the latest, creationists started rewriting their arguments and textbooks. The problem, of course, was that religion was not science. So they invented a fake science to take the place of religion. Creationism became Intelligent Design, God became the Theoretical Designer, and irreducible complexity became the appropriate term to summarize a millennial literary and oral tradition of theological futility.

The new generation tells the story, and with new words claim it for their own. It is the latest iteration of a desperate effort to keep ancient superstitions alive. The reality is that humanity will not abandon religious thinking unless it so evolves that we are better off without that part of our brains. Rather than reinventing the myths to address new perspectives, as has been done since the beginning of humanity itself, the Gutenberg aeon has spread a fixed record to many hands, so that the old superstitions can hang on longer for being remembered specifically, and insisted upon. Yet each new generation still tells the story in its own way; it is impossible for these traditions to remain absolutely unmoved by the ravages of time.

Thus, the result is that our social evolution has slowed in at least one important dimension. Given the work our hands are capable of doing, perhaps there is some benefit in that. Or, at least, a salve against the hurt of that retardation.

Intelligent design and irreducible complexity are simply part of that process.

Metaphysically, it all makes a certain degree of sense, such that the apparent retardation is more of a diffusion that allows exponentially greater combination and application, trial and error.

But that's metaphysics, which counts for approximately a dog's butt less than zero around here. And it doesn't change the fact that ID and IC are complete shite. As a creative endeavor, only the names have changed. So I can tell, by the lines they're reciting, I've seen that movie, too.
 
Yes Tiassa, but to quote my religious friend: "evolution isn't science and science supports religion!"

What you are using is logic, that simply isn't a sharp enough tool to cut through such amazingly thick bullshit.
 
signal said:
And you're not doing anything else than they are -
I am not repeating flagrant errors and known falsehoods at high volume in the face of continual refutation. Nor am I nurturing in ignorance a large population of deceived youth to amplify my propaganda efforts across entire fields of public discussion, and gain political power thereby.
signal said:
you, too, want to dominate.
Hardly. But even if true - so what? My means are honest and honorable - which may explain their ineffectuality: they are easy to resist.

The creationist propaganda and confusion spreaders are not honest, or honorable, or even civil, in their means or their ends. Twenty or thirty years ago there might have been some doubt to give the benefit of - but their websites still have the claims about the second law of thermodynamics, still have the giraffe's neck and the blood clotting mechanism and the eyeball and all the rest, still have the appeals to quotes from "the man himself" (Darwin) or other proposed authority, still have the goofball probability calculations for protein formation or beneficial mutation, and so forth.

This is long past anything that should be treated as respectable, or reasonable, or even civil. It's a flagrant scam, a con, a cheat; and it's hurting people.
 
As an undergraduate I worked at a laboratory that studies evolution of bacteria. It is completely ridiculous to think that evolution does not happen, because in our lab we had e coli develop a trait never before seen in e coli. These things happen over time, and it is being studied just how unlikely it is to happen. Even with incredibly low probabilities you will have some 1,000,000,000,000,000 individual bacteria in culture over the course of 30 years, leading to at least a few novel changes.

As for red blood cells, they are inert. They respond to their immediate chemical environment and that is how they pick up oxygen. Its the ph difference between the lungs and the tissues that triggers a conformational change in hemoglobin if I remember right. Most other cells are more dynamic and need their DNA for instructions.

Just my 2 cents

As for irreducible complexity, I like the concept when its not related to religion. Things that are irreducibly complex cannot be designed by one single person because they are too complex. We cannot hope to recreate a supercomputer without the help of a huge team and decades of research on the subject. Just because evolution is too complex for one person to figure out and retrace in natural history, doesn't mean its too complex for a group, or too complex to happen randomly. To think that a supercomputer would happen randomly is simply inane, and it proves no point. Its only merit is that it reduces you to the intelligence level of the person you are arguing.
 
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