H5n1 !!!!!

URI said:
>>It seem 'wild' birds has an immunity....... but domesticated avians are very vulnerable . . .

That is what surprised researchers about H5N1. As you state, wild birds are usually not suspectable to the Influenza A strains which kill off domestic poulty flocks in a day. But they get H5N1. Some ducks are carriers. But others aren't. It kills a wide variety of birds: turkeys, doves, flamingos, sparrows, parrots, chickens, geese, flamingos and on and on. Used to be a region was hit, the flocks were culled and that was mostly that. But now bar headed geese, which have been seen cruising over Mt. Everest, are making enough ground before they die to carry it hundreds of miles. Other migratory birds are passing the H5N1 baton on shorter relays.

Dr. Osterholm said the other day H5N1 is looking more and more like the H1N1 which hit in 1918.
 
http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200511/s1506560.htm

>> Indonesia says a 20-year-old woman has died of bird flu and several other countries have also reported more suspected cases in people.

Adding to the sense of alarm, researchers in Vietnam say the H5N1 avian flu virus has mutated allowing it to replicate more easily inside humans and other mammals.

Taiwan says it has detected another bird flu strain that can infect people.

Avian influenza is known to have infected 125 people in Asia, killing 64 and is endemic in most poultry flocks in the region.

Final test results for the woman and a 16-year-old girl who died last week have to be confirmed by a laboratory in Hong Kong.

The laboratory, affiliated with the World Health Organisation (WHO), has confirmed five people have died of bird flu in Indonesia.

Scientists at the Ho Chi Minh Pasteur Institute in Vietnam, who have been studying the genetic make up of H5N1 samples taken from people and poultry, say it has undergone several mutations.

"There has been a mutation allowing the virus to (replicate) effectively in mammal tissue and become highly virulent," the institute said on its website. >>


I think it is inevitable that a highly pathogenic stain will infect humans.

I suppose we all had better make some plans.
 
The HPAI found in Taiwan is H7N3. Hit Canada in 2004. 17 million birds were culled and two poultry workers infected.
 
Muhlenberg said:
That is what surprised researchers about H5N1. As you state, wild birds are usually not suspectable to the Influenza A strains which kill off domestic poulty flocks in a day. But they get H5N1. Some ducks are carriers. But others aren't. It kills a wide variety of birds: turkeys, doves, flamingos, sparrows, parrots, chickens, geese, flamingos and on and on. Used to be a region was hit, the flocks were culled and that was mostly that. But now bar headed geese, which have been seen cruising over Mt. Everest, are making enough ground before they die to carry it hundreds of miles. Other migratory birds are passing the H5N1 baton on shorter relays.

Dr. Osterholm said the other day H5N1 is looking more and more like the H1N1 which hit in 1918.

You do of course realize that when a flock dies and some of them test positive for a particular strain, that does not necessarily mean they died of that or any other flu. Of course, it hasn't been necessary for any epidemiologist to understand even the simplest statistics for over 20 years now.
 
ok,
here are some quotes, and discussion but this topic.

""My understanding of viral/bacterial pathogenesis is similar to yours and I thought K12 might only be useful in influenza cases to inhibit secondary bacterial infection (still an important issue, of course). Then I read the PDF refeferenced above. The suggestion being made on pg 10, bullet point 7 appears to be that Strep. Salivarius K12 can somehow stimulate parts of the immune system which inhibit viral infection, thereby increasing resistance to viruses in the upper respiratory tract. Why this action should be unique to Strep. Salivarius K12 is also a bit of a mystery.""



"For those who haven't read it, here is the direct quote: "Upper respiratory viral protection (S. salivarius K12) impact of immune system parameters such as cytokine and interferon production being measured."

I guess that is a promising idea... But I am also fascinated as to why S. salivarius may stimulate cytokines and interferons that are also specific for virus immunity. On what basis do they believe that this may work? However if it doe work, then we're talking big bucks, but it'll be many years away before significant results emerge. "

"""As my daughter has explained, (even with Lego Blocks), the human body has many self defence mechs which can be enhanced to fight anything of the bacterial or viral nature. The problem is getting these mechs to trigger or how to enhance them. BLT have harnessed K12 and found it can do many other things, they have only scratched the surface.
(at this stage it would be easier to post the demo with the lego blocks, easier to see than explain).
In a very brief sum-up and the logic behind it, I now belive this K12 is well on the way to stopping Flu, from what I'm told once this has been achieved it'll open up the doors to other simular ailments.
Salivarius K12 has also caused alot of discussions at Otago in the Medical sector, think were on to a winner here.""

here is the main link to bliss.
http://www.blis.co.nz/

but it doesnt have reference yet to the experimental work going on now.
but there is an interesting section about the science involved in the discovery of k12.
and its many potential uses.
 
MetaKron said:
You do of course realize that when a flock dies and some of them test positive for a particular strain, that does not necessarily mean they died of that or any other flu.

Thousands of wild birds died last spring at Qinghai Lake, China. H5N1 detected. Then dead migratory birds found with H5N1 at Chany Lake region of Novosibirsk, Russia. Next outbreak is outside Moscow, then in Turkey, then Romania, then Croatia. Same disease. Same bird species on the same flyways going where they go every year.

Just a coincidence I guess.
 
>> it doesnt have reference yet to the experimental work going on now.

Thanks Muhlenberg

Commercial, 'normal flora' generation.

This Streptococcus enhancing production of body defence molecules does not sound at all promising in my mind.

Interferon is widely used in Hep C infections, sometimes to good effect and sometimes ineffective.

The Hep C virus is benign compared to a future "human modified bird flu".

Thanks for the run down. I await the next move by this virus.
 
good link


http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/idsa/influenza/avianflu/biofacts/avflu.html

>> * Influenza A virus remains viable at moderate temperatures for long periods in the environment and can survive indefinitely in frozen material. It can survive for 4 days in water at 22ºC and for over 30 days at 0ºC (see References: PHS).
* Recent data from studies of H5N1 in domestic ducks have shown that H5N1 can survive in the environment for 6 days at 37ºC (see References: WHO: Laboratory study of H5N1 viruses in domestic ducks: main findings).
* Inactivation of the virus occurs under the following conditions (see References: OIE 2002, PHS):
o Temperatures of 56ºC for 3 hours or 60ºC or more for 30 minutes
o Acidic pH conditions
o Presence of oxidizing agents such as sodium dodecyl sulfate, lipid solvents, and B-propiolactone
o Exposure to disinfectants: formalin, iodine compounds >>

>> * Routes of bird-to-bird transmission include:
o Airborne transmission if birds are in close proximity
o Direct contact with contaminated respiratory secretions or fecal material
* Vertical transmission is not known to occur
* Other factors that contribute to spread within and between flocks include the following:
o Broken contaminated eggs in incubators infecting healthy chicks (see References: OIE 2002)
o Movement of infected birds between flocks
o Movement of fomites such as contaminated equipment, egg flats, feed trucks, and clothing and shoes of employees and service crews (see References: APHIS, Beard 1998)
o Contact with infected wild birds and waterfowl
o Fecal contamination of drinking water
o Garbage flies (suspected of transmitting the virus during the 1983-1984 epidemic in Pennsylvania) (see References: Beard 1998)

The disease is highly contagious. One gram of contaminated manure can contain enough HPAI virus to infect 1 million birds (see References: APHIS). >>
 
The infected birds are now on a new migration route: before it was just in East and Southeast Asia, now in Europe. The latest outbreaks in Romania and Turkey are the early Fall stopovers for birds enroute from Russia to Northern Africa. Africa is totally unprepared.
 
>> Africa is totally unprepared.

can i change the direction of discussion a little ?

IF a human pandemic starts, what do you think will happen ?

and the consequences, social, economic etc.
 
Muhlenberg said:
Thousands of wild birds died last spring at Qinghai Lake, China. H5N1 detected. Then dead migratory birds found with H5N1 at Chany Lake region of Novosibirsk, Russia. Next outbreak is outside Moscow, then in Turkey, then Romania, then Croatia. Same disease. Same bird species on the same flyways going where they go every year.

Just a coincidence I guess.

How do we know that they didn't test positive for antibodies to a virus they had that didn't kill them or even make them sick? This stuff needs to be backed by peer-reviewed articles in medical journals, not simply believed because it appears in the popular media. Sheesh.
 
URI said:
>> Africa is totally unprepared.

can i change the direction of discussion a little ?

If a human pandemic starts, what do you think will happen ?

and the consequences, social, economic etc.
The World Health Organization (WHO) predicts that it is not a matter of "if," but "when." As of two weeks ago - this prediction may have changed by now - they estimate between 20,000-150,000 human fatalities.

The social consequences will be histeria, a massive request by people to be innoculated, a shortage and demand for more Tamilflu and Relenza which we would not be able to supply in the short turn, an immediate somewhat artificial (in the sense that I mean "non-conclusive") screening of passengers boarding commercial aircaraft (They would probably just ask the passengers if they have experienced or have any of the following symptoms, but I don't see that there would be any great economic effect except for the increased costs involved in screening people and manufacturing more Tamiflu, Relenza, and research for a more effective drug.

MetaKron said:
How do we know that they didn't test positive for antibodies to a virus they had that didn't kill them or even make them sick? This stuff needs to be backed by peer-reviewed articles in medical journals, not simply believed because it appears in the popular media. Sheesh.
Since they cannot all be tested (this would be impossible to do), we have no choice but to slaughter them all when the flu is found in a specific area.
 
valich said:
The social consequences will be histeria.

And dont forget the oil companys will raise gas prices at least double whatever the current rate is, because there will be some kind of shortage caused by this (according to them).
 
>> In Washington, officials of the US Food and Drug Administration said evidence so far does not show the anti-flu treatment Tamiflu caused deaths or psychiatric problems in Japanese children.

The agency has been studying reports of 12 deaths and 32 cases of psychiatric problems, all but one of which was in Japan, among children who had taken Roche's drug, which is in high demand as a defence against a possible bird flu pandemic.

Linda Lewis, an FDA medical officer, said there was "insufficient evidence to establish that deaths and neuropsychiatric events represent a safety signal associated with Tamiflu."

The FDA has no plan to add warnings about the deaths or psychiatric problems to Tamiflu's label, Ms Lewis said. >>
http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200511/s1510416.htm

in other developments

>> Vietnam says bird flu had spread to three more provinces, while China has reported a fresh outbreak.

China gave front-page coverage on Thursday to its first human cases of the H5N1 bird flu virus, and the Agriculture Ministry said on Friday a new bird flu outbreak had been discovered in northern Shanxi province.

In Vietnam, the Agriculture Ministry said bird flu outbreaks had hit Phu Tho, Thai Binh and Hoa Binh provinces, and added that the number of dead and slaughtered poultry in cities and infected areas since early October had reached nearly 900,000.

A lethal strain of the H5N1 virus has killed 67 of the 130 people it has infected in Asia since late 2003, >>>
 
There were reports on CNN about a month ago - I can find the article if you want - that Tamiflu had proved to be ineffective against the cases of the Avian Flu Virus in either Thailand or Vietnam.
 
MetaKron said:
How do we know that they didn't test positive for antibodies to a virus they had that didn't kill them or even make them sick? This stuff needs to be backed by peer-reviewed articles in medical journals, not simply believed because it appears in the popular media. Sheesh.

What are you talking about? "Popular media" reports are shallow and no one here is relying on them alone.

Go check H5N1 at Genebank yourself. Click on "Nucleotide":

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/Taxonom...d=355567&lvl=3&lin=f&keep=1&srchmode=1&unlock

Here are some H5N1 sequences from Quinghai Lake, Ayutthaya, Hong Kong, Mongolia, Novosibirsk, Vietnam etc for you enjoyment:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/Taxonom...ndef&id=102793&lvl=3&keep=1&srchmode=1&unlock

You still haven't given us the names of those who could debunk this but were murdered. Nor have you told us why the NEJM, CIDRAP, WHO, The Pasteur Instition in Hanoi, St. Jude's, the Hospital for Tropical Disease in Ho Chi Minh City and others involved in researching H5N1 24/7 are full of crap and you are correct in whatever point you are trying to make.
 
The way I see it is that Metakron is being a "humanitarian" by suggesting we didn't know that they tested positive before we killed them?
 
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