H5n1 !!!!!

P

Paraclete

Banned
Banned
Facts about the avian flu H5N1 , updated to nov. 7 2005 :
1) Highly infectious for all birds.
2) can infect humans from birds - including from feathers,cleaning and preparing poultry for food, raw eggs (including touching them) -but not from
cooked meat or cooked eggs (unless you touch it with polluted hands).
3) lethality of MORE than 50 % for humans.
4) untill now NOT infectious from human to human.
5) if the H5N1 is transmitted to a human , who has a human flu at the same time, then H5N1 can "melt" together with the human flu , and create a new
mutant flu capable of a killer pandemic.
6) NO known vaccine against H5N1 - and even if one is created ,it will NOT
necessarily work against the killer mutant flu, that has elements from H5N1 as well as the human flu (in else the new mutant flu , that will cause a pandemic is NO longer identical with H5N1) - THAT IS BAD !!!!!
7) both human flu and H5N1 normally depends on trypsin and neuraminidase
to shed it cape of haemagglutin - which is needed before it can replicate itself.
8) Tamilflu and Relenza both counteracts the effect of neuraminidase, and therefore makes it much more difficult for the Virus to replicate !!
9) Only ONE case is known worldwide where H5N1 was resistant to tamiflu -
this case was succesfully treated with Relenza - and the patient survived !!
10) In general Tamiflu has been proven superior to Relenza to cure H5N1 and also has fewer side effects than Relenza.
 
Another theoretically way that H5N1 can cause a killer pandemic , is by mutating WITHOUT fusing with a human flu - that would be BAD !!!
The last time that happened was in the end of WW1 -with a H1N1 strain of avian flu causing the spanish flu - estimated between 15 - 20 millions death !!
It even managed to only need neuraminidase to shed its haemagglutincape - it did not need trypsin anymore - that was a REAL killer ...........
 
Seen estimates of the 1918 mortality rate of between 2.5% and 5%. That is the pandemic the UN's Dr. David Nabarro based his worst case estimate of 150 million dead upon and got jumped on by the media for being alarmist. WHO spokesman Dick Thompson has an estimate of 7.4 million but extrapolates from the 1968 pandemic. If (when really ) H5N1 goes H2H the mortality rate should drop from its current 50%+ but...drop to what? And what if it doesn't?

NEJM reported at the end of Sept that some infections have been " consistent with" H2H transmission. They just can't prove it.

Some good news: Joe Howton at the Adventist Medical Center in Portland Oregon wondered if probenecid, developed during WWII to stretch supplies of penicillin, would work with Tamiflu. It does. Cut the dose needed in half. Roche knew this but didn't inform its customers who are waiting up to a year for shipments of the antiviral.

If you want to make your own :

Chemical and Engineering News: Complexity Of Tamiflu Manufacturing May Hamper On Demand Production

Easiest way to get the shikimic acid needed is from Star Anise. But not the only way:

Biocatalytic synthesis of shikimic acid, United States Patent 6613552
 
Sounds good, Muhlenberg !!
As far as I remember probenecid slows down the excretion of penicillin from the kidneys, thereby increasing the serumlevel of penicillin and prolonging its stay in the bloodflow.
I personally would prefer to buy the tamilflu rather than experimenting at home ...
An Indian company (CIPLA - I think ), has now declared that they are going to manufacture Tamiflu without permission from Roche ........ they did the same with cipro when the anthrax hysteria was at its peak .
Unfortunately avian flu will come some day as a pandemic - I just hope it will take
a long time before it happens - then at least there is a chance of being prepared !!
 
Looks like the red flag is up in Asia, Parclete. Monday morning's Bangkok Post:
Prepare for worst, hospitals ordered
Bird-flu pandemic alert plan activated
KULTIDA SAMABUDDHI

The government has activated a plan to avert a possible health catastrophe from bird flu amid global fears the virus may mutate, become more virulent and trigger a pandemic. Although reports of human-to-human transmission have yet to be confirmed, provincial hospitals have been ordered to prepare for the worst . . .

Many have already pinpointed possible sites for field hospitals, temporary shelters and helipads to treat and transfer large numbers of patients in case a pandemic strikes.

Agencies such as the Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Department, Defence Ministry, and National Police Bureau have been ordered to support emergency response and draft plans for evacuation, peacekeeping and corpse management operations . . .
Click to expand...

Also reported in the last 24 hours: China sealed a province Sunday, the Red Cross in the Phillipines activated, two weeks in jail for Beijing residents who do not vaccinate their birds and Hong Kong is setting up a 1,300 bed isolation ward...
 
cases in hong kong for H5N1 in 2001 and 2004
2001- 19 human cases, 15 dead, 1.5 million chikens dead
2004- 234 human cases, more than 50 dead so far, no reports on chikens
 
You all know of course that the mortality statistics go a lot higher when you only count those who died as having had the sickness in question at all. This seems to be one of those cases where you only know of the people who get so sick as to be hospitalized and those who have died. The mortality rate for birds would include those that actually have died and suspect cases. Since they are killing off suspect cases the mortality among them is more like 100 percent. And I'm completely amazed that anyone thinks that any tests for the type of flu are particularly accurate. I don't know how they decide which of the ones who test positive are going to die unless they keep them quarantined somewhere until they either croak off or get over it.

Things have been arranged so that those who have the credibility to debunk this thing are either dead or afraid to speak. All that I can do is watch this go down with increasing indifference and hope I don't get swept up in the door-to-door search for suspect cases to "treat." If I survive that I will come back and find out that I don't even have a door, or a house, or a computer, or anything to change into from the damned hospital gown, which will probably be bright orange. That's because I will lost my job along with millions of people who are forcibly quarantined.
 
Muhlenberg said:
Looks like the red flag is up in Asia, Parclete. Monday morning's Bangkok Post:

Also reported in the last 24 hours: China sealed a province Sunday, the Red Cross in the Phillipines activated, two weeks in jail for Beijing residents who do not vaccinate their birds and Hong Kong is setting up a 1,300 bed isolation ward...
Click to expand...


Is this the province that was closed in late september or early october? The short one paragraph I read about it said swine had become infected. This is one report, but not the original I read.

AVIAN FLU VIRUS FOUND IN PIGS

A representative of the Chinese Avian Flu Reference Laboratory announces
that the deadly strain of avian flu H5N1 has been found in pigs in China in
2003 and 2004. It is the first time that the virus, which is so deadly to
both birds and humans, has been found in pigs. Since pigs can also contract
human viruses there is concern that the H5N1 virus could mutate into a human form.
From this link: http://archives.econ.utah.edu/archives/pen-l/2004w35/msg00201.htm

Heres a clip from the Iowa Farm report July 2005:

In another development, government reports from one province in southern China indicate 31 people have died from a swine-flu type of illness. The source of the illness reportedly was from handling infected hogs and eating the meat. So far, the problem does not appear to be widespread enough to affect Chinese pork consumption and feed demand. However, it will bear watching closely

And heres another linking swine and human flu transmission to the 1918 outbreak.
http://www.cnn.com/HEALTH/9902/15/historic.flu/index.html

Any thoughts?
 
milkweed . . .good links thanks. So far the swine infections do not seem to be a huge problem. But then China often reports outbreaks only when forced by events. The avian infections in Asia are devastating however. Discouraging to hear Americans dismiss H5N1 because is hasn't affect them. Asians need the income and need the protein from poulty. 130 millon birds culled is a huge deal. People have lost everything they have.

The next few weeks will be interesting. About half a billion birds from H5N1 infected areas are migrating through Israel, Jordan, Arabia etc to Africa. H9N2 is endemic to poultry in that region. Lots of opportunity for gene swapping. Both viruses infect humans but not with ease. H2H transmission could break out in the mideast, not Asia as has been thought most probable.
 
MetaKron said:
You all know of course that the mortality statistics go a lot higher when you only count those who died as having had the sickness in question at all. This seems to be one of those cases where you only know of the people who get so sick as to be hospitalized and those who have died.
Click to expand...

Just the opposite is the case. We are talking rural poor Asia here, not Tokyo. The lucky ones have a hospital they can get to in time. Cases are undoubtly uncounted. Kids under 15 who got to a hospital in Thailand had a 89% mortality rate. Likely some never made it there.

The mortality rate for birds would include those that actually have died and suspect cases. Since they are killing off suspect cases the mortality among them is more like 100 percent.
Click to expand...

Chickens infected with H5N1 in the lab are dead within 20 hours. Ducks are sometimes asymptomatic carriers. But if H5N1 gets in a chicken flock, they might as well be culled, they'll be dead shortly anyways.

Things have been arranged so that those who have the credibility to debunk this thing are either dead or afraid to speak.
Click to expand...

And who were those people? Give us some names. The top experts on H5N1 are:

K.Y. Yuen (Queen Mary Hospital, Hong Kong)
Robert Webster (St. Jude's Children Hosptial)
Guan Yi (Hong Kong and St. Jude's)
Jeremy Farrar ( Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Ho Chi Minh City)
Hitoshi Oshitani (World Health Organization, Manila)
Erich Hoffmann (St. Jude's)
Elena Govorkova (St. Jude's)
Michael T. Osterholm, PhD, MPH (CIDRAP)

None of them are dead.

All that I can do is watch this go down with increasing indifference and hope I don't get swept up in the door-to-door search for suspect cases to "treat."
Click to expand...

If H5N1 goes H2H, you will be lucky to find anyone to treat you. There are about 105,000 respirators in the USA. On any given day, 80,000 are in use. During a normal flu season, usage approaches 100%. The World Health Organization reported in Sept: "Most hospitalized patients with avian influenza A (H5N1) have required ventilatory support within 48 hours after admission as well as intensive care for multiorgan failure and sometimes hypotension . . "*

In addition, we have no surge capacity. "Just in time" business models adopted over the last 30 years means hospitals will run out of everything needed to treat the disease fast.

H5N1 may not go H2H. No one knows. But things do not look good. The threat is not being overestimated.
 
Thanks guys, good work

We need all the info possible

see WHO and BBC for epidermological info and "human->human" incidences.

Need info on protective clothing, masks, personal practices, outdoor practices
IF this virus gets a leg in.
:)

Best be prepared
 
I think that this time it is gibberish. HTH can they figure a 1 to 3 percent mortality rate for humans when it's supposed to be half or worse for some species of birds? If it's a 1 to 3 percent morality rate among humans I'm not even worried for myself. I'm sorry if my small home town might have to bury 100 to 300 people this flu season but anywhere from 10 to 20 people die each week in a town of 10,000 under normal circumstances. 1 to 3 percent is almost "rare." Cardiopulmonary disease is still going to be the top killer this year, and a lot of that will be triggered by the flu. Flu victims are going to include a lot of people who probably would have died anyway. Also, if we accept the use of medically induced comas and Prednisone for treatment, we're going to see a very high mortality rate among the treated. There will be spin doctors on the net for years working their little assets off to destroy anyone who mentions the fact that a medically induced coma and high doses of prednisone will cause deadly pneumonias.

You know what's really twisted this year? There are no public advisories about how to treat yourself for flu symptoms. I don't even remember the last time anyone put some out. Those who don't already know, as part of their general knowledge, are going to be without some very common and very easy to obtain resources for fighting the flu back, and that will add tremendously to the body count. If someone tells you that chicken soup saved them the last time they had a really bad flu, they are telling you the truth. Why is this so? This is because someone who has the flu needs digestible proteins and fats, along with some carbohydrates, lots of fluids, and the warmth is good too. The absolute first thing to do for someone who has the flu or a cold is supportive care, and that is an art in itself. If it becomes a forgotten art, a lot of people are going to die. Chicken soup will also moisten the mouth and throat, by the way.

You have to take care of nutrition. You have to keep the patients hydrated. You have to keep them, if at all possible, able to move enough that they can cough up sputum, something they can't do when in a coma. Vitamin C is a big help, and so is selenium.

No one knows, but on the basis of not knowing, we are going to find a lot of us in internment camps that are purported to "quarantine" us from the rest of the population to keep them safe. Did you give any thought about how they intend to do that? How about what happens to essential services? Hmm? This town starves if it doesn't get it's grocery deliveries. In fact I'd better hope that I can stock up before it hits, because I have two weeks to wait before I have enough money to stock up on water and groceries. When I am immobilized by the flu, as I have been before, I can walk to the kitchen, get a bottle of water, make up some food, use lots of chicken soup, and I'll be up and around in a week tops. And if I can keep from it I'm not taking any meds except low doses of aspirin. Screw trying to use a medication that is aimed at viral DNA. Most of the DNA I have was once viral DNA and I don't want it messed with with primitive medicines.

What is going to kill us is that a lot of people are going to think that they are helpless without Tamiflu or flu shots. There are a lot of things that people can do. They can stock up water, sports drinks, Pedialyte, chicken soup, milk, and make sure that they have enough food on hand for two weeks without going anywhere. They need to know how to treat fever and lung congestion. They need to know how to keep a throat from getting too dry, and that dryness will choke people to death. It takes oils to keep a throat wet, not just water. Butterscotch candies might make a good choice if the patient won't inhale them. Whole milk is good, and I mentioned chicken soup.

I have a lot more faith in the home remedies than in "Tamiflu" or the shots.
 
URI said:
Need info on protective clothing, masks, personal practices, outdoor practices
IF this virus gets a leg in.
:)Best be prepared
Click to expand...

bird-flu-masks.co.uk is a place you probably don't want to buy protective gear from. Their lengthy FAQ misidentifies the threat as "H4N1".
 
Good treatise there MetaKron

>> You know what's really twisted this year? There are no public advisories about how to treat yourself for flu symptoms. >>>

yes funny that..... no guidance so far
 
Muhlenberg said:
milkweed . . .good links thanks. So far the swine infections do not seem to be a huge problem.
Click to expand...

The thing is, as I am reading things written about the various flu's and possible transmission, species jumps and avian flu is this. The outbreak in 1918 was originally called a swine flu. It has only been within the last year (or so) that science has found the 1918 flu was a variation of one of the 15 known avian flu's. This H5N1 avian strain has been rolling around asia for 8 years in the bird populations and has not made a significant impact on other animal species (other than the tigers in the (singapore?) zoo.

It is known that swine can pick up both avian (some types) and human (some types) of flu. The thing I have been reading more of, is the fear in the medical community that some human with a flu will pick up avian flu and chance will result in this mutation causing characteristics that will allow the easy human to human transmission.

I am wondering if the real potential of this flu making the jump to easily transmission between humans is the swine link. I would like to know more about the 31 villagers who died of an alleged "swine flu". I would like to know more about how many swine have been infected and was it a variation of the avian flu.
 
>> This H5N1 avian strain has been rolling around asia for 8 years in the bird populations and has not made a significant impact >>

This is true

however human beings have not been able to catch it until several years ago

now more and more human cases are being reported.... even bird->human->human

Limited at present ? but steadily infecting more and more human beings in ways that indicate a pandemic like Spanish flu could start up.

Just best to realise that eventually it will change to a very infective form.

The WHO thinks that a pandemic is inevitable.
 
Really scary. Many people I know believe that this avian flu pandemic is bounded to break out sooner or later.

One simple question: why can avian flu jump from duck to duck and chicken to chicken yet ducks and chickens are two different species?
 
>> why can avian flu jump from duck to duck and chicken to chicken yet ducks and chickens are two different species? >>

It can jump to pigs, tigers, people, swans, flamingos.....

It seem 'wild' birds has an immunity....... but domesticated avians are very vulnerable

WE all have the same biochemistry.
 
melodicbard...mutations and gene swapping. The fear now is someone with a common H2H influenza will also get H5N1 and a new virus will arise which is very pathogenic and easy to transmit from human to human.

A rough analogy on mutations:

The hemagglutinin (H) protein on the outside of the virus is like the docking mechanism on a spaceship. One craft fits certain other crafts. Influenza A uses RNA to reproduce and that is 100,000 more likely to make an error than DNA is. Everytime a cell is infected, there is a plethora of mutations. Most can't infect anything and fade away. But start multiplying the number of mutations by cells infected by animals infected and eventually a mutation will arise which can dock with another species.

Once it does, even if the docking is difficult as is right now the case with H5N1, that virus may swap genes with one common to that species making future dockings of a mutated virus simple.

The other protein on the virus, neuraminidase, is similar to explosive bolts on a spacecraft. Once an infected cell produces the virus, they cluster on the surface of the cell. Neuraminidase is the explosive bolt which blows them off to go infect other cells.

Tamiflu and Relenza are neuraminidase inhibitors. They stop the infection from spreading by disarming the explosive bolts.

The M2 inhibitors amantadine and rimantadine jam up the docking mechanism itself. Unfortunately, China used this class of drugs in chicken feed and WHO said in late Sept, it has no therapeutic effect against H5N1.

There are questions about this however. The Southeast Asian clade which has killed humans is resistant to amantadine class antivirals but the Qinghai lake clade which has spread to the west is showing in the lab sensitivity to amantadine. No fatalities reported from the Qinghai lake strain. Bottom line to this might be that if H5N1 arrives in your area via wild birds, all four antivirals could be effective. If it gets off a plane from Asia, only Tamiflu and Relenza will work.

Btw...Kuwait confirmed today the H5 strain found there is H5N1. First case in the Persian Gulf.

think I got this generally right. Do welcome corrections.
 
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