Electric cars are a pipe dream

No, instead of looking South (if you live in the USA) look North:

“… If {Canadian oil sands} are mined, vast amounts of water and heat are necessary to separate the oil from the sand. If they are extracted by well, it's often necessary to heat up the rock to get the thick oil flowing. Either way, extracting oil sands is considerably more energy intensive than pumping normal oil.
Oil sand extraction is also tough on the landscape, especially if it's mined. The mines are huge, roughly the size of Rhode Island. They have resulted in deforestation of hundreds of square miles of wilderness, at least until the sites are replanted.* On a lifecycle basis, from the extraction process on through to burning the stuff in a motor vehicle, oil sands are estimated to emit 5% to 30% more carbon dioxide than regular oil. …”
From: http://money.cnn.com/2010/12/23/news/economy/oil_sands_pipeline/index.htm?a=4
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* Not likely to be done on such a scale and the top soil is gone, so even if done, most of the trees planted will die in a few years as the try to grow.

Billy, you can be such a pessimist.

Trees aren't particularly dependent on top soil and you can replant trees successfully after you have mined.

Or consider:

About 33 percent of the United States, or ~747 million acres is forested.

About 52 million acres of this forestland is reserved for non-timber uses and managed by public agencies as parks, wilderness or similar areas.

About 191 million acres are not productive for growing wood for harvest, but are of used for watershed protection, wildlife habitat, and other uses (most of these forests are in land that is too steep/remote for commercial logging).

Forest growth nationally has exceeded harvest since the 1940s.

By 1997 forest growth exceeded harvest by 42 percent and the volume of forest growth was 380 percent greater than it had been in 1920.

Nationally, the average standing wood volume per acre in US forests is about one-third greater today than in 1952;

In the East, average volume per acre has almost doubled.

So even though US wood products consumption has increased by 50% since 1965, from 374 to 563 million cubic meters annually, the amount of our forests has also increased.

Then there are the even more massive Canadian Forests.

Of the ~1,030 million acres of forests in Canada, ~578 million acres are considered "commercial forests" in that they are capable of producing commercial species of trees as well as other non-timber benefits.

BUT, much less than half of these forests are actually used for timber production.

In Canada, 94% of the forests are publicly owned. The provinces have ownership and legislative authority over 71% percent of them and the federal government has 23% of Canada's total forest land, most of it in two of the three territories in the north.

So, with ~1.8 billion acres of forest in the US and Canada, we have no shortage of forests.

So very clearly we are managing our forests in North America quite well, and they are GROWING, not shrinking.

Arthur
 
the carbon fuel musical chairs game continues. The good old BigOil boys like Pickens now run for the NG chair. It still contains carbon and is not sustainable. Butanol or GreenNH3 appear to be much better choices to me also. Scientific American says peak oil 2014.
 
...Scientific American says peak oil 2014.
Yeah, I read that. It is going to help drive petroleum replacement.

BP has developed a process they claim will make butanol from waste cellulose profitable and are building a plant to manufacture it at this time. Admittedly it is a small investment, but is could be the beginning.

I do not know if butanol will work well in high compression engines. I do know that there are some new IC engines being brought online that are radically different and vastly more efficient than those in use right now. The one in...I think it was Popular Science mag recently - was a very clean burning 180 degree opposed cylinder diesel 2 cycle that got something like 100 mpg. It was absurdly efficient. I am sure that there are others in the works too, as there is a lot of money at stake for anyone that can do something serious in this industry now.

The energy content of butanol is the major attractor, as is the ability to use existing infrastructure to handle it.
 
http://www.lightparty.com/Energy/Butanol.html

This one speaks directly to this issue as well.

The current retail price of butanol is $3.75US a gallon. As soon as gasoline hits $4/gal in the US butanol starts to look pretty cheap. The lack of exhaust pollutants other than CO2 makes this liquid fuel extremely attractive - especially considering it can be used without modification in current IC engines and infrastructure.
 
You have to look at the price of gasoline minus State and Federal taxes to do the comparison.

Then you have to compare that to the price of Butanol delivered at a retail outlet.

Arthur
 
Wouldn't that be comparing wholesale to retail? I don't know what enlightenment I would get from that. :shrug:

The only actual way to compare 10% ethanol gasoline retail pricing with 15% butanol gasoline retail pricing would be to look at the pump price at a station where both blends were available for retail sale side by side.

Otherwise I am stuck with taking the manufacturers statements as to the retail price of their products. From that link, in the case of butanol. (other sites I found agree with that, though) :eek:

While that stated retail price for butanol (at $3.75/gal) is greater than the retail price of ethanol (about $2.50/gal subsidized, as I recall), butanols' higher energy content levels that out somewhat - even without deducting the US govt price supports on the ethanol.
 
"... {28Dec10} China cut its rare earths export quotas by 11 percent in the first round of permits for 2011, threatening to worsen a global shortage of the minerals needed for smartphones, hybrid cars and guided missiles. {BT notes: 2nd half of 2011 will have a yet to be set export limit.}

The government allotted 14,446 metric tons of rare earth exports split among 31 companies, the Ministry of Commerce said in a statement. That compares with the first round this year of 16,304 tons and the second round of 7,976 tons ...
China, which accounts for more than 90 percent of world supplies, slashed export quotas by 72 percent in the second half of this year, sparking a surge in prices. ..."
From: http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ago22zGucavc&pos=5

Billy T comments: I.e. for every 100 tons exported in 2009 there were only 100-72 = 28 tons exported in 2010. Now with 11% further reduction of 2011 that is 28x0.89 = 24.92 to be exported in 2011.

SUMMARY: In two years China reduced rare Earth exports by slightly more than 75% ! As China supplied 96% of the world's supply in 2008, that means the world will live with only 4% + 0.96x.25 = 4% + 24% = 28% of the rare earth's it had in 2008.

Compounding the problem is the the fact that the demand has at least doubled since 2008. I.e. compared to current demand (assuming it has only doubled) the world will need to get by on 14% of its needs until new mines and processing / separation facilities can come on line. (That takes about decade, but some current producers can ramp up production in a few years).

Net effect is China will keep much more rare earths for its own growing demand and yet make about as much as it always has on the exports as the price will soar, at least for 5 or so years.
 
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Wouldn't that be comparing wholesale to retail? I don't know what enlightenment I would get from that. :shrug:

No, the article said: Butanol is an industrial commodity, with a 370 million gallons per year market with a selling price of $3.75 per gallon.

So as an industrial commodity, there is no state and federal fuel taxes applied, yet the retail price of gasoline which includes those taxes and averages about $.46 per gallon.

Arthur
 
Sorry Arthur, I do not understand your point. :shrug: Any chance you could restate it a tad more clearly? (like apples with apples or oranges with oranges)

As for China and its trade policies: what China does in this respect and what its intentions are should be pretty clear at this point. The countries that continue to play the game by China's rules deserve what they get. There are technologic workarounds to most of this stuff, but you have to pay for basic research, you have to pay scientists and engineers and you can't just suck off the tech that others have developed. Followers are not leaders.

Here in the US we are cutting teachers pay, upping class size and dumbing down the tests to pass dummies that can't read or write their native language while we pay football players 20.28 million dollars a year - guaranteed for 7 years. Folks come here and get educated, then go back home to do the work. The scientists that cannot find work here are going over there to not only get work but to get well paid. I read the ads in Sciam every month and I know folks that have done just that.

We make fun of "nerds" or "geeks", disparage scientists and engineers while we glorify steroid pumped idiots for throwing each other around in front of crowds. We tell ghetto kids to become sports stars if they want to succeed while we glorify the 'players' and degrade the family.

We get what we deserve. Maybe if it gets bad enough we will awaken to the abject stupidity of our attitude and change course before we are permanently relegated to second class status.

Reminder: the Chinese have openly stated that they are going to corner the world market for electric automobiles. They are in the process of doing that. We will either wake up and smell the coffee or stay asleep while they do this.
 
No, the article said: Butanol is an industrial commodity, with a 370 million gallons per year market with a selling price of $3.75 per gallon.

So as an industrial commodity, there is no state and federal fuel taxes applied, yet the retail price of gasoline which includes those taxes and averages about $.46 per gallon.

Arthur

However, the retail price of gas isn't the real price we pay. We pay additional tax to keep the cost lower for the consumer.

"According to the National Defense Council Foundation, the economic penalties of America's oil dependence total $297.2 to $304.9 billion annually. If reflected at the gasoline pump, these “hidden costs” would raise the price of a gallon of gasoline to over $5.28. A fill-up would be over $105. "

http://www.iags.org/costofoil.html

We would of course have to provide subsidies for any offsetting industry to keep up, but not so much if we start now and make the change over a longer period of time, making the transition less painfull.
 
However, the retail price of gas isn't the real price we pay. We pay additional tax to keep the cost lower for the consumer.

Typical sophmoric analysis that concludes that our efforts in the Middle East should be included in the price of oil.

Except they aren't related at all.

The Middle East is just as dependent on the world buying their oil as the world is of buying it from them.

For instance Oil in Saudi accounts for ~80% of budget revenues, 45% of GDP, and 90% of export earnings. They can't stop selling it and once sold, as a fungible product it is available to us.

Arthur
 
Sorry Arthur, I do not understand your point.

There are no fuel taxes included in the price of Butanol when you quote its industrial price at $3.75 per gallon, which is a price related to commercial sales (bulk quantitites) yet you compare it to the RETAIL price of Gasoline which at current prices has roughly $.46 of fuel taxes embedded in the price, not to mention the overhead of the end retail distribution system which is about $.15 per gallon.

If you sold industrial Butanol, available for $3.75 per gallon, at a retail pump it would be ~$3.75 wholesale cost + $.46 state and fed fuel tax + $.15 retailer profit or ~$4.36 per gallon.

Arthur
 
"... {28Dec10} China cut its rare earths export quotas by 11 percent in the first round of permits for 2011, threatening to worsen a global shortage of the minerals needed for smartphones, hybrid cars and guided missiles.

Lynas, among five companies with proven Australian deposits, according to www.australianrareearths.com, will next year shift some 11,000 tonnes from a new plant in Malaysia, doubling output to 22,000 tonnes a year by end-2012.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/2010122...DeW5fdG9wX3N0b3JpZXMEc2xrA2F1c3RyYWxpYW5yYQ--
 
Typical sophmoric analysis that concludes that our efforts in the Middle East should be included in the price of oil.

Except they aren't related at all.

The Middle East is just as dependent on the world buying their oil as the world is of buying it from them.

For instance Oil in Saudi accounts for ~80% of budget revenues, 45% of GDP, and 90% of export earnings. They can't stop selling it and once sold, as a fungible product it is available to us.

Arthur

Wonderful.

You have managed to throw an insult at me and completely ignore my post at the same time.

They are completely related and every other subsidy along the way until it gets to the pump is as well.

The bottom line is we aren't being told or paying the real price directly for many things. Oil, mining and farming are just a few that are subsidized to keep the cost to the consumer lower.

The fear is that if we actually paid the real cost directly we would change our habits. We can't have that happen can we ? :rolleyes:
 
The US is going to re-open the Molycorp Mountain Pass Mine in California in order to meet it's demand for rare Earth metals.Sumitomo Corp of Japan invested $130 million in Molycorp to guarantee a supply of rare earth metals for seven years.I imagine work will be around the clock to get the mine up to full capacity asap.



http://tinyurl.com/295bdu9

http://tinyurl.com/23b662h
 
Wonderful.

You have managed to throw an insult at me and completely ignore my post at the same time.

They are completely related and every other subsidy along the way until it gets to the pump is as well.

The bottom line is we aren't being told or paying the real price directly for many things. Oil, mining and farming are just a few that are subsidized to keep the cost to the consumer lower.

The fear is that if we actually paid the real cost directly we would change our habits. We can't have that happen can we ? :rolleyes:

Too bad, but you simply ignore the fact that ~45% of our oil comes from our own production followed by our two biggest suppliers; Canada and Mexico and that the countries of the Persian Gulf have to sell their oil as it is still about their only source of revenue.

What "habits" do you expect to change in the US?

Is our primarily suburban based lifestyle a "habit" and if so, how fast do you think we could change it?

Consider that from 1990 to 2000, in our top 50 Metro areas the population went up by ~24 million and 20.5 million chose to live in the suburbs vs only 3.4 million in the cities.

The houses that were built for them will easily last 100 years.

http://www.demographia.com/db-2000coresub.htm

Arthur
 
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