Electric cars are a pipe dream

[ElectricFetus]

Of course, the reality is that in 20 years, there will be a variety of methods of getting around. From electric public transport, to electric battery operated private cars, to biofuels, synthetic fuels, still lots of fossil fuels, fuel cells and so on. Anyone who focusses exclusively on one approach and rejects other approaches is as wrong as he/she can be.

I question hydrogen fuel cells as both a short term and long term energy economy model. Its energy inefficient (compared to batteries) and hydrogen is a pain to store. I feel metal-air flow cells are the future, like a battery but also like a fuel cells, operates on organic metal pastes: zinc, aluminum, lithium, etc. Which can provide higher volumetric density then hydrogen without anything more advance then a plastic contain with a bladder cell. Metal-air flow cells will not need expensive catalysis in their fuel cells, and present cheaper manufacturing and operating costs. The metal oxide waste product could replaced with fresh metal paste, while the waste is extracted and "recharged" at a gas station. With some engineering the flow cell in the car could be operated in reverse to converted the the oxide paste back into metal paste, allowing for home recharging as well as gas station fueling. Heck the paste could even be safe to handle and inflammable.

 

[Skeptical]

EF

I did not say hydrogen fuel cells. You are correct in pointing out the technical difficulties handling hydrogen gas. However, there are many alternatives. For example : methane fuel cells.

Where hydrogen may be of great value in the future is in synthesizing hydrocarbon fuels. For example : if biomass is subject to anaerobic pyrolysis, many volatile organic compounds are given off. If these are, in turn, mixed with hydrogen gas, in the absense of oxygen, and passed over a suitable heated catalyst, then a range of hydrocarbon fuels are created. Synthetic fuel.

Of course, it is not quite this easy, or we would already be doing it. However, research is under way and this is a real possibility for the future.

 

[ElectricFetus]

EF

I did not say hydrogen fuel cells. You are correct in pointing out the technical difficulties handling hydrogen gas. However, there are many alternatives. For example : methane fuel cells.

Where hydrogen may be of great value in the future is in synthesizing hydrocarbon fuels. For example : if biomass is subject to anaerobic pyrolysis, many volatile organic compounds are given off. If these are, in turn, mixed with hydrogen gas, in the absense of oxygen, and passed over a suitable heated catalyst, then a range of hydrocarbon fuels are created. Synthetic fuel.

Of course, it is not quite this easy, or we would already be doing it. However, research is under way and this is a real possibility for the future.

Well I'm all for hydrogenated pyrolysis, as long as power supply can be provided that can support it. But using hydrocarbons in a fuel cells has been difficult, usually limited to solid oxide fuel cells which have no practicality in cars due to the long time required to heat them up. Even using methane carbon build up has been a problem. Actually I would prefer more research in Direct Carbon Fuel Cell, which could operate on any fuel, from hydrogen to coal, with potential efficiencies not limited by the Carnot cycle.

 

[phlogistician]

Well you seem to be dealing with an All or Nothing way of looking at it.

EVs don't have to replace ALL cars to have a HUGE impact.

You seem to be missing the variety of journeys one model of petrol car will undertake. A simple cheap petrol vehicle will do the daily commute. Yes, an EV could do that too. The same petrol vehicle can drive you long distances to go on holiday. No, the EV cannot do that. So what is someone to do, own BOTH?

That solution just isn't environmentally friendly, as it requires manufacturing two vehicles.

So what is our solution to people who own EVs travelling large distances?

 

[phlogistician]

They don't have to be right next to it, to be at the same facility.
Look at your typical gas station, there is usually plenty of room to separate the gas pumps from the electrical stations by 30 or more feet.

I am thinking about them, and no there isn't. Not here in the UK at least. 30 feet here makes that somebody elses property, or a road. I don't think Health and Safety are going to buy 30 feet either. More like 25 yards.

 

[ElectricFetus]

So what is our solution to people who own EVs travelling large distances?

1) PHEV.
2) trailer generator.
3) Battery exchange stations.
4) Flow cells with gel/paste/liquid anodes and refueling stations.

 

[phlogistician]

1) PHEV.

So your solution to driving long distance in an EV, is to not buy an EV, but buy a Hybrid? Just how does this free you from the shackles of the Oil companies?

2) trailer generator.

Dude, I want to be able to tow a caravan. I can only tow one thing,. ..

3) Battery exchange stations.

Yeah, 'cos it's going to be a snip exchanging a couple of hundred kilos of batteries.

4) Flow cells with gel/paste/liquid anodes and refueling stations.

Now that's more like it. Replaceable electrolyte fuel makes a lot more sense. Probably an environmental nightmare needing strict recycling protocols however.

 

[adoucette]

You seem to be missing the variety of journeys one model of petrol car will undertake. A simple cheap petrol vehicle will do the daily commute. Yes, an EV could do that too. The same petrol vehicle can drive you long distances to go on holiday. No, the EV cannot do that. So what is someone to do, own BOTH?

That solution just isn't environmentally friendly, as it requires manufacturing two vehicles.

So what is our solution to people who own EVs travelling large distances?

As I said in my post, most people who have to rely on just one car per household will probably not opt for an EV.
But, once a household gets to two cars the option becomes much more viable does it not?
What about for a three car household, where one of the cars is for the teenage driver? Clearly one or two of these cars could be EV.

As it turns out, in the UK, 34% of the households that own a car have two cars and 8% have 3 or more. So that's a LOT of cars that could probably be replaced with EVs without running into the limitations that you find objetionable.

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=1770

And it's not anymore enviornmentally unfriendly because you are still replacing petrol cars with EVs on a one for one basis.

Of course you again ignore EVs using onboard recharging capability and they have no range limitations, no inherent top speed limitations and yet in typical use would produce the majority of it's vehicle miles using grid based electricity.

http://www.chevrolet.com/pages/open/...future/volt.do

As to your 30 ft not available in the UK, maybe in and around London, but having spent plenty of time in the UK, once you get out of the city, gas stations look much like anyone else's.

http://www.yourlocalweb.co.uk/image...ll-petrol-station-at-station-cross-198857.jpg

In any case this is just a red herring, the amount of charging stations needed isn't so great as to not be an acceptable part of the cost of EVs, and guess what, if they replace 1/3 of the petrol cars then you won't need nearly as many gas stations either.

Arthur

 

[Billy T]

... http://www.chevrolet.com/pages/open/...future/volt.do...Arthur

That link does not work (for me at least) but this one does: http://www.chevrolet.com/future-vehicles/

Where you can read: "Volt is an electric vehicle that uses gas to create its own electricity. Plug it in, let it charge overnight, and it's ready to run on a pure electric charge for up to 40 miles(4) - gas and emissions free. After that, Volt keeps going, even if you can't plug it in. Volt uses a range-extending gas generator that produces enough energy to power it for hundreds of miles on a single tank of gas."

Problem with Volt is it costs twice as much as BYD's hybrid, which goes farther before the gasoline engine kicks in. Also BYD's EV started selling in China in 2008 - is not a promisse, but a reality.

China already controls 90+% of world's supply and is greatly reducing the exports of the rare earths needed to make light weight strong magnets for the electric motors (not just the drive motors, but about 30 motors per car for thing like electric window, wind shield wipers, electric fans, etc.) Thus, not likely that many Volts could be built in 2011, even if there was demand for them.

I predict Volt would be the new Edsel, but worse with 90% fewer sales, if the tax payer were not subsidizing those rich* enough to buy it (usually as a second car). BYD is scheduled to beginning shipments to the USA, also at the end of 2010, but I think it is their regular gas only model. Does anyone know if the subsidy law is limited to US made cars? And in this age where all cars have many countries making parts for them, how would "US made" be defined? As I understand it, S. Korean will make batteries and drive motors for the Volt - half the cost of the car. A China specific rule out of subsidy will get retaliation - add to already growing trade restrictions and speed the arrival of the depression as it did in 1929.

-------------------
* how long will poor, but voting, Joe American put up with that?

That nice looking car ain't the Volt -Its BYD's hybrid.

 

[phlogistician]

But, once a household gets to two cars the option becomes much more viable does it not?

Only if both parties commute under the range afforded by an EV. But as has already been stated, the majority of car journeys in the UK are under four miles. Easily accomplished by bicycle, or that electric tricycle. But people still prefer petrol cars.

What about for a three car household, where one of the cars is for the teenage driver? Clearly one or two of these cars could be EV.

You aren't going to drop £30k on a car for your teen, are you?

Ah, and here we are back at cost. Why have a £30k EV and a petrol car, when you can spend £20k and get two petrol cars? The numbers really just don't stack up.

Of course you again ignore EVs using onboard recharging capability

That would be a Hybrid, or PHEV, not an EV. I'm talking purely about EVs.

and they have no range limitations, no inherent top speed limitations and yet in typical use would produce the majority of it's vehicle miles using grid based electricity.

There are more efficient petrol cars than say, the Prius. Problem with the Prius is dragging two engines everywhere, and the top speed is 112mph, not bad, I guess, but the fuel economy falls to 26.6mpg, and the acceleration at 9.8s to 60 is pretty lame vs a petrol car.

As to your 30 ft not available in the UK, maybe in and around London, but having spent plenty of time in the UK, once you get out of the city, gas stations look much like anyone else's.

I live in the UK, and you are just wrong about that.

http://www.yourlocalweb.co.uk/image...ll-petrol-station-at-station-cross-198857.jpg

Right, so, if you look at that using Google Maps:

http://maps.google.co.uk/maps?q=crediton&um=1&ie=UTF-8&sa=N&hl=en&tab=wl

You see that to put an electric hook up far enough away from the petrol pumps, you are looking to the very edge of the property, which is the entranceway from the road, currently where the water and air services appear to be. Seems that stop is popular with trucks, that need the turning circle too. Maybe you could fit a couple there, but not all Petrol stations have the space, and as it takes longer to charge an EV than fill up with Petrol, it's not going to be able to accomodate many vehicles, is it? That wasn't a great example you picked, was it?

In any case this is just a red herring, the amount of charging stations needed isn't so great as to not be an acceptable part of the cost of EVs,

You're just wrong. If you want fast charging, the infrastructure needs building. You'll pay for that as part of your charging cost. That's just how it works, it's business. Or you end up with limited range. Your choice.

and guess what, if they replace 1/3 of the petrol cars then you won't need nearly as many gas stations either.

Oh dear, you don't understand economics. We have so many gas stations, not because we need all of their capacity, but for two different reasons. Location. We have gas stations at many different locations, so we don't have to drive and waste fuel getting fuel. 2nd, competition. We have lots of Gas stations because Gas companies compete for our business. You think they are going to close locations and cut off potential revenue, handing it to their competitors? No they aren't. It's business.

 

[adoucette]

Your argument about price fails on several levels.
The Leaf, an EV goes for under £20k, and that's new.
For your teenager it will probably be a used Leaf, going for maybe £10k and you will save money because gas was < £2.50 a gallon in 2000 and is now over £4.30 per gallon.

And of course you want to limit the discussion to just EVs, because that limits the options available to help change over to an EV based infrastructure, but too bad, all the other variations will be part of the movement off of our almost 100% oil based transportation system to one where electricity takes on a much larger percentage.

It's not if, it's simply when and how fast that happens.

As to charging stations, again its a red herring, because yes they are a cost, but so are the current stations, so they both probably add about the same cost per mile to the cost of driving, though my guess is that electric recharging stations will be a bit more expensive to build initially, but then slightly cheaper to operate and maintain.

Arthur

 

[spidergoat]

We are going to see these technologies implemented in motorcycles first. In fact, there are a number of promising motorcycles out there already, some with 100 mile range and highways speeds. The dirtbikes are very interesting, with hot-swappable batteries. Within 2 years, the range anxiety question will be solved (in bikes anyway).

 

[adoucette]

Problem with Volt is it costs twice as much as BYD's hybrid, which goes farther before the gasoline engine kicks in. Also BYD's EV started selling in China in 2008 - is not a promisse, but a reality.

China already controls 90+% of world's supply and is greatly reducing the exports of the rare earths needed to make light weight strong magnets for the electric motors (not just the drive motors, but about 30 motors per car for thing like electric window, wind shield wipers, electric fans, etc.) Thus, not likely that many Volts could be built in 2011, even if there was demand for them.

I predict Volt would be the new Edsel, but worse with 90% fewer sales, if the tax payer were not subsidizing those rich* enough to buy it (usually as a second car).

Well the reviews on the BYD suck, but maybe people will overlook that based on price.

I think they will sell quite a few of the Volts, but then you might be right, we'll have to wait and see though.

As far as subsidies, they have a built in limitation as to number and time, so while there is at present a decent incentive to be on the leading edge of this technology, the cars will very quickly have to be sold on their own merits.

The income tax credit for PHEVs and BEVs requires that the vehicle draw propulsion from a traction battery that has at least 4kWh of capacity, uses an external source of energy to recharge the battery, has a Gross weight of up to 14,000 pounds, and meets specified emissions standards. The base amount of the PHEV or BEV credit is $2,500, plus another $417 for each kWh of battery capacity in excess of 4 kWh, with a maximum subsidy of $7,500 per vehicle with weight less than 10,000 lbs. This maximum amount increases to $10,000 for vehicles weighing more than 10,000 pounds but not more than14,000.

But, the subsidy starts to phase out after 200,000 vehicles have been produced by each manufacturer and regardless, tax credit is currently only authorized until the end of 2014. I suspect that it might be extended in time but NOT in number of vehicles.

Oh, and we have mines of our own that can produce those rare metals, its just still cheaper to get them from the Chinese.

Arthur

 

[ElectricFetus]

So your solution to driving long distance in an EV, is to not buy an EV, but buy a Hybrid? Just how does this free you from the shackles of the Oil companies?

If you drive on average 50% of the time within the batteries capacity, then your only using petrol 50% of the time, if everyone were to do that then demand for gasoline would but cut in half, more so as the battery gets larger and range increases.

Dude, I want to be able to tow a caravan. I can only tow one thing,. ..

Just an option, might be small enough to tow behind the caravan.

Yeah, 'cos it's going to be a snip exchanging a couple of hundred kilos of batteries.

With an automated systems, yes it will be a snap, actually quicker then fueling up on gasoline. In Tesla's Sedan supposedly the batteries will have drop down wheels, you can slide it out, slide in a fresh one manually.

Now that's more like it. Replaceable electrolyte fuel makes a lot more sense. Probably an environmental nightmare needing strict recycling protocols however.

Maybe, if say its a Zinc-air flow cell the zinc fuel its self would be relatively environmentally benign, it would probably be even less hazardous then gasoline, and certainly less flammable (unless dried)

 

[Skeptical]

Another point about ev's that seems to have been overlooked is safety.

ICE's carry the equivalent of an on board bomb. A petrol tank is not the safest thing in the world. In fact, petrol is one of the most hazardous substances we deal with. While cars do not explode on impact in the way Hollywood would suggest, carrying on board up to 100 litres of toxic, carcinogenic, highly flammable, and downright explosive liquid is not the safest thing in the world.

In the same way, refuelling stations are potentially highly hazardous also. In order to set up a 'safe' gas stations, enormous amounts of money are spent on safety. Underground fuel tanks. Clever safe delivery systems. And even then, every year there is a major disaster somewhere.

An electric recharge station would cost a fraction of the liquid fuel recharge station to set up. It is just wiring, after all. And both the recharge station and the ev will be much safer than the equivalent using liquid fuels.

Nor would a traditional fuel station be the logical place to set up a recharge station. Quite the contrary. The logical place for electric recharges is a cafe carpark. In fact, these points would so easy and cheap to set up that they could be placed in corporate carparks also. And shopping centres. And supermarket carparks. You get the idea?

I have still to hear back from the naysayers any reply on my suggestion that their objections will disappear if we look at a 20 year time frame. In 20 years, plus or minus a few, we can expect to see a battery technology permitting long range and rapid recharge. The electric equivalent of an SUV will, by then, be perfectly able to tow a caravan, at highway speeds, for two hours.

Two hours is all that should be required. For safety reasons, no driver should drive continuously for more than two hours. Fatigue builds up, and the driver becomes the equivalent of a drunk driver. Every two hours, a stop for electric recharge, a cup of coffee or a snack, and a toilet break, seems to me to be eminently sensible.

In the mean time, before that 20 years of ongoing development, there will be a place for short range ev's as commuter vehicles and shopping baskets. Such vehicles can be cheap to build and very cheap to run.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/REVA

 

[adoucette]

If you drive on average 50% of the time within the batteries capacity, then your only using petrol 50% of the time, if everyone were to do that then demand for gasoline would but cut in half, more so as the battery gets larger and range increases.

And it can actually be even better than that.

In the Extended Range EVs where a small ICE is used to drive a generator but not ever directly drive the wheels, the engine can be more appropiately tuned for it's single function. For instance it doesn't need lots of torque for acceleration, and it doesn't have to go through wasteful acceleration cycles which are bad for gas mileage. Instead it will usually be tuned for highest performance in a rather narrow range of RPMS (Volt engine runs at just two speeds), thus the mileage even when driven by the onboard generator is excellent and as good or better than current hybrids.

Arthur

 

[raptorttail]

For safety reasons, no driver should drive continuously for more than two hours. Fatigue builds up, and the driver becomes the equivalent of a drunk driver. Every two hours, a stop for electric recharge, a cup of coffee or a snack, and a toilet break, seems to me to be eminently sensible.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/REVA

Where do you live?

Your sense of reality is non-existent.

 

[Skeptical]

To raptor

My sense of reality is perfectly fine, thank you.

I live in New Zealand. I also spend quite a bit of time in Australia. The concept of 2 hours max at the wheel followed by a break is widely accepted in both countries. If you think it does not apply to you, your sense of reality is sadly impaired. I assume you are American. Got news for you. Americans are also human. They suffer the same limitations as the rest of us.

The advice to drive no more than 2 hours between breaks is something that applies to everyone.

 

[Neverfly]

To raptor

My sense of reality is perfectly fine, thank you.

I live in New Zealand. I also spend quite a bit of time in Australia. The concept of 2 hours max at the wheel followed by a break is widely accepted in both countries. If you think it does not apply to you, your sense of reality is sadly impaired. I assume you are American. Got news for you. Americans are also human. They suffer the same limitations as the rest of us.

The advice to drive no more than 2 hours between breaks is something that applies to everyone.

For the record, it is recommended almost everywhere in the USA as well... It's also recommended that no one drive more than 8 hours in a given day.

All over the world, people don't follow recommendations and people do follow them.

 

[Skeptical]

Thank you for that, Neverfly.

Then I regard it as perfectly reasonable to accept electric cars that have a two hour limit at open highway speeds, and a rapid recharge, allowing a ten minute break to get them back to normal.

And this property is probably going to be achieved within 20 years, making electric vehicles totally practical as replacements for ICE's.