Electric cars are a pipe dream

[Syzygys]

Monthly or weekly numbers can give you a boner, but it can be only seasonality. Year to year numbers are the real thing...

 

[Billy T]

I have a hybrid with 120,000 miles on the battery. No problems. ...

Do you have good records showing what fraction of that 120,000 was using the battery as the energy source? I recently read report on the government´s hybirds that said less than half the mileage driven was battery powered. I am speaking of pure EV as then we know the mileage driven is all with electrical energy

Yes, that's the PHILL compressor I was talking about. It does indeed save on fuel costs - but incurs a purchase cost, a maintenance cost and a cost for both the gas and the electricity needed to fuel it. ...

Home compressor (to avoid the high road taxes) pay for themselves for drivers putting many miles on the NG car (or would not be bought) but are only a transition phase.

None exist in Brazil where ~1/3 of all service stations (fuel outlets) provide NG tank filling. As the diesel truck is phased out (already typically a $25,000 reduction in annual fuel costs even before the price of NG dropped by another factor of two) there will be many more filling station offering NG - but not like Brazil for at least a decade.

The expansion of NG use in vehicles feeds on its self. I.e. as more exist, more filling stations are made, which makes more NG car sales, etc. - This is the mechanism of all exponetial expansions. I.e. growth rate proportional to current size gives the exponential equation.

 

[Billy T]

Peterbilt hosted more than double the number of customers and dealers at its Natural Gas Leadership 2012 meeting … with some 180 customers and dealers in attendance. … Peterbilt is investing millions to widen its natural gas-powered truck offerings, with plans to build 2,000 trucks powered by either compressed (CNG) or liquefied (LNG) natural gas by the end of this year. … Our parent company Paccar has invested $2 billion over the past two years in new products, facilities, and technology – and that includes alternative fuel technology …

Shaunt Hartounian, regional manager for national accounts at Clean Energy Fuels, believes fleets should become early adopters of natural gas in order to reap the maximum benefits of the fuel – and not just because, at the moment, it costs $1 to $1.50 per gallon less than diesel. “Fleets that have switched to natural gas are figuring out how to take freight contracts away from established players – because they are greener yet offer a lower cost as well,” he pointed out. “They are using all the tools in the tool box to compete more effectively for freight.”
From: http://fleetowner.com/running-green/event-seeks-mobilize-move-natural-gas

More of the same here:
(1) http://fleetowner.com/management/news/natural-gas-dimensional-solution-0413
(2) http://fleetowner.com/equipment/news/kenworth-case-natural-gas-0812
(3) http://fleetowner.com/green/archive/ryder-1000th-natural-gas-dtna-1109 (Ryder get 1000th natural gas truck)
(4) http://fleetowner.com/green/archive/natural-gas-boosting-bill-tax-credits-0407 (NG vehicles get tax credits)


Below are awards reported at: http://fleetowner.com/green/archive/fleets-honored-ngv-1101

Eight fleets were recently recognized for their use of natural gas vehicles.NGVAmerica and the Clean Vehicle Education Foundatio http://fleetowner.com/green/archive/natural-gas-boosting-bill-tax-credits-0407 n (CVEF), two organizations dedicated to increasing use ofnatural gas-powered vehicles, presented their 2011 winners of the annual NGV (Natural Gas Vehicles) Achievement Awards.
The winners included:

• Waste Management Inc., Houston, TX: For achieving the milestone of deploying their 1,000th natural gas-powered truck, for their advancement of natural gas vehicle (NGV) and fueling technology and for their national advocacy of pro-NGV policies and programs. Waste Management recently committed to purchasing only natural gas-powered units.
• Ryder System Inc., Miami, FL: For the inauguration of a $38.7-million joint public/private industry partnership project that has created the first large-scale, heavy-duty natural gas truck rental and leasing program in the country.
• Giant Eagle Inc., Pittsburgh, PA: For opening its first two CNG (compressed natural gas) fueling stations, one that is available for consumer use, and the other for use by the company’s fleet of delivery trucks.
• EQT, Pittsburgh, PA: For leadership in facilitating the development of public access CNG fueling stations and adoption of NGVs in southwestern Pennsylvania. According to the award presenters, EQT, one of the largest natural gas producers in the country, has assisted fleets in obtaining more than $6 million in state and federal grant funding.
• Enviro Express Natural Gas, LLC, Bridgeport, CT: For opening the first LNG/CNG (liquefied natural gas/compressed natural gas) vehicle fueling station east of the Mississippi, located adjacent to I-95 in Bridgeport, CT.
• Happy Cab Company, Omaha, NE: For significantly advancing the use of natural gas as a vehicular fuel by committing to convert 50 taxicabs, 25% of their fleet, to CNG.
• Heckmann Corp., Coraopolis, PA: For showing leadership among suppliers in the natural gas exploration and production (E&P) sector by placing the single largest order for liquefied natural gas trucks by a U.S. customer. The company is transitioning their water- transportation fleet from diesel to natural gas with an initial order of 200 Peterbilt Model 367 LNG trucks.
• Atlantic City Jitney Association (ACJA), Egg Harbor Township, NJ: For replacing 190 of their 13-year old gasoline shuttle buses – 100% of their fleet - with new CNG shuttle buses.

 

[billvon]

Do you have good records showing what fraction of that 120,000 was using the battery as the energy source?

Yes, very good records - the net energy is zero. In a hybrid the batteries are used only for transient loads, and are 'recharged' by regen braking and by the engine. Overall hybrids cycle the batteries much more often, and at much higher C rates, than the batteries in battery electric vehicles. This tends to reduce their life. However they are also normally* cycled much more shallowly, say between 40 and 70%. This tends to increase their life. Thus overall it's either a wash or a slight benefit for battery life for hybrids.

(* - with the exception of steep uphills, long downhills, battery-only operation etc.)

I recently read report on the government´s hybirds that said less than half the mileage driven was battery powered.

Definitely true! In fact, with the exception of PHEV's like the Prius plug in and the Volt the mileage is close to zero.

For the Volt it depends on the person. A far amount of people who own them at my company report 90-100% pure EV operation.

The expansion of NG use in vehicles feeds on its self. I.e. as more exist, more filling stations are made, which makes more NG car sales, etc. - This is the mechanism of all exponetial expansions. I.e. growth rate proportional to current size gives the exponential equation.

Agreed. Which is true of EV's as well.

 

[adoucette]

The expansion of NG use in vehicles feeds on its self. I.e. as more exist, more filling stations are made, which makes more NG car sales, etc. - This is the mechanism of all exponetial expansions. I.e. growth rate proportional to current size gives the exponential equation.

Which we haven't seen in the US because they are almost all fleet cars, buses or trucks and so there isn't any increase in public filling stations and there is but one small personal car, the Civic GX to choose from.

 

[Billy T]

Which we haven't seen in the US because they are almost all fleet cars, buses or trucks and so there isn't any increase in public filling stations and there is but one small personal car, the Civic GX to choose from.

A good description of the current conditions, with zero foresight as to the changes more than a 50% reduction in cost per mile dirven will make.

 

[adoucette]

Billy, CNG doesn't reduce the cost per mile by 50%.
The cost of a medium sedan, driven about 12,000 miles per year is ~50c per mile.
The fuel cost is about 10c of that.
http://www.vtpi.org/tca/tca0501.pdf

Reducing the fuel cost by 5c per mile is not that huge of an incentive that you think it is, or everyone would already be driving a Prius.

There are many other factors that determine what car someone buys and the higher upfront purchase cost, the loss of trunk space, the limited range and the lack of filling stations all work against your expectation of growth of CNG cars for typial home use in the US.

 

[Billy T]

Billy, CNG doesn't reduce the cost per mile by 50%.
The cost of a medium sedan, driven about 12,000 miles per year is ~50c per mile. The fuel cost is about 10c of that. ...

Yes the total cost includes the capital, which is a constant, even if car just sits in the garage.

That is why I spoke of cost PER MILE DRIVEN. That is also why only drivers who put on more than the average miles / year are buying NG conversion kits. The APL Lab tech who conerted his car to NG more than 35 years ago did so as his round trip commute (home to work) was more than 100 miles (about 150 as I recall). That is also why even in the US some taxi cabs are converting to NG as often two drivers shair a cab and have it rolling more than 18 hours per day. (In Sao Paulo, Brazil, it is rare to see a cab that does not run on NG, and none of the trunk space has been given up (not feasible for a cab going to the airport, etc with trunk full of bags)

As more and more of these "first users" switch to NG, the number of NG service statation will incease. In a decade of so, everyone will want to cut their per mile cost by more* than 50% and there will be a wide choice of Factory made NG cars available. I have become rich because I often foresee what is coming a decade or more in advance and invest before most realize where the profits will be.

* "more" as by then gasoline will be costing more than $10/ gallon and NG will still be less than $2/ million BTU as huge CHEAP CONVENTIONAL NG DEPOSITS HAVE BEEN FOUND. One, in E. Africa, so much closer to the Asian market that the US probably will not be able to export NG as many hope.

 

[adoucette]

Yes the total cost includes the capital, which is a constant, even if car just sits in the garage.

That is why I spoke of cost PER MILE DRIVEN.

No Billy, a car depreciates even if it sits in the garage.

But your reasoning is absurd.

People buy cars to drive them and as the report shows there are far more costs than just the fuel to do so.

But even if you just consider the fuel costs.

Well the EPA gives the SUB-COMPACT GX an annual fuel cost at $1,024, while the MIDSIZE Prius is just $1,162. (the cars cost essentially the same to buy)

http://www.afdc.energy.gov/afdc/pdfs/afpr_jan_11.pdf

BUT besides the Prius being a bigger car, one can fill up the Prius ANYWHERE, where as the GX only has a 200 mile range and so you can't use it most places.

BUT the cars cost essentially the same to buy.

So tell me again why I would buy a limited range Sub Compact with zip trunk space for the same price of an unlimited range MidSize car that comes with a better warranty?

 

[Billy T]

...
So tell me again why I would buy a limited range Sub Compact with zip trunk space for the same price of an unlimited range MidSize car that comes with a better warranty?

You should´nt if you think the future will be just like the present. I.e. ignore the rising price of gas and the falling cost of NG, etc.

I am not saying that NOW one should buy an NG car - just predicting most will by 2022.

 

[cosmictraveler]

"Indeed, with hydrogen, the BMW does almost as water vapour. As there is more carbon in the fuel, CO2 emissions should even be zero, but with the possible drop of oil that can pass through the exhaust, we limit ourselves to write that they are reduced more than 99%. The same is true for all toxic pollutants, including nitrogen oxides (NOx), as BMW is super champion to optimize the burning of its engines, and the latter takes place upstream where temperatures are formed NOx. Therefore, the near-perfect, with the only drawback of having to refuel every 200 km. The BMW 760 Li is not a small car journalist, and this even less Hydrogen 7 is a car big boss who will only have to ask his driver to go refuel when needed. And seated in the rear, the big boss will have the satisfaction not pollute during his travels, while continuing to benefit from an auto highest level. Neither Mercedes or Lexus can offer him that."

 

[adoucette]

You should´nt if you think the future will be just like the present. I.e. ignore the rising price of gas and the falling cost of NG, etc.

I am not saying that NOW one should buy an NG car - just predicting most will by 2022.

LOL

But if no one buys them now your expected growth won't happen.

Remember you said As more and more of these "first users" switch to NG, the number of NG service statation will incease.

But now you are saying that it doesn't make sense to buy one NOW.

So don't expect any of these new filling stations as long as only ONE car maker makes ONE model of CNG car and only sells a thousand or so each year.

 

[adoucette]

"Indeed, with hydrogen, the BMW does almost as water vapour. As there is more carbon in the fuel, CO2 emissions should even be zero, but with the possible drop of oil that can pass through the exhaust, we limit ourselves to write that they are reduced more than 99%. The same is true for all toxic pollutants, including nitrogen oxides (NOx), as BMW is super champion to optimize the burning of its engines, and the latter takes place upstream where temperatures are formed NOx. Therefore, the near-perfect, with the only drawback of having to refuel every 200 km. The BMW 760 Li is not a small car journalist, and this even less Hydrogen 7 is a car big boss who will only have to ask his driver to go refuel when needed. And seated in the rear, the big boss will have the satisfaction not pollute during his travels, while continuing to benefit from an auto highest level. Neither Mercedes or Lexus can offer him that."

Hydrogen isn't a fuel.

It's an energy carrier.

It isn't found as H2 in nature and so it takes a lot of energy to make it.

Most of it is made from Natural Gas.

So as of Jan of this year, average price for hydrogen was $4.88 per gasoline gallon equivalent.

But the RANGE of H2 Internal Combustion cars sucks.

That snazzy BMW, which burns the H2, can only go 124 miles on a tank of Hydrogen.

Meaning you can't go more than 60 miles from the nearest H2 pump.

Which means you can't really use it as a car.

 

[Billy T]

... But if no one buys them now your expected growth won't happen. ...

No, you are putting words in my mouth again. I never said no one was or should buy NG. You asked me to tell why YOU should buy & I agreed you should not, not for years yet.

I.e. typical Joe American should not buy NG car now, but NG vhicles are selling well - For example Ryder just took deliver on NG vehicle number 1000. Cab companies are converting, even individuals who drive 150+ miles per day are converting. Fleet operators are buying NG - your link about AT&T showed they were buying more than twice as many NG as EVs. Etc. for many light weight delivery trucks.

These are the "first users" I spoke of and they are causing more NG filling station to be installed. Exponential growth is very slow (percentage increase) in the early stages but as it is proportional to the number existing it greately accelerats when only 5% are NG vehicles.

As I think you know Volt EV production has shut down for five weeks - not enough deman; However, at least a hundred NG vehicles are being placed on the road evey week now.

{from post 2585}… Peterbilt is investing millions to widen its natural gas-powered truck offerings, with plans to build 2,000 trucks powered by either compressed (CNG) or liquefied (LNG) natural gas by the end of this year. …
Shaunt Hartounian, regional manager for national accounts at Clean Energy Fuels, believes fleets should become early adopters of natural gas in order to reap the maximum benefits of the fuel – and not just because, at the moment, it costs $1 to $1.50 per gallon less than diesel. “Fleets that have switched to natural gas are figuring out how to take freight contracts away from established players...
Below are {first 3 of 8} NG awards reported at: http://fleetowner.com/green/archive/fleets-honored-ngv-1101
• Waste Management Inc., Houston, TX: For achieving the milestone of deploying their 1,000th natural gas-powered truck, for their advancement of natural gas vehicle (NGV) and fueling technology and for their national advocacy of pro-NGV policies and programs. Waste Management recently committed to purchasing only natural gas-powered units.
• Ryder System Inc., Miami, FL: For the inauguration of a $38.7-million joint public/private industry partnership project that has created the first large-scale, heavy-duty natural gas truck rental and leasing program in the country.
• Giant Eagle Inc., Pittsburgh, PA: For opening its first two CNG (compressed natural gas) fueling stations, one that is available for consumer use, and the other for use by the company’s fleet of delivery trucks.

It is becoming more common that fleet owners allow public to fill up at their NG stations - a new profit center from which they initially got no income from.

 

[adoucette]

These are the "first users" I spoke of and they are causing more NG filling station to be installed.

But that's the point Billy.
They aren't public.
These are mainly fleet uses and they are being filled via private facilities.
Yes some private companies are allowing public use, but most are not.

at least a hundred NG vehicles are being placed on the road evey week now.

LOL, even in Feb, not a great month for EV sales, they put over 300 EVs on the road each week.

And to put it in perspective, they put nearly 300,000 new IC vehicles on the road every week

typical Joe American should not buy NG car now, but NG vhicles are selling well

No Billy, NG cars are NOT selling well now.

If NG cars were selling even 1% of the number of normal IC cars that were being sold each week, that would still not be thought of as "selling well", but even that pidley number is FAR FAR above what they are in fact selling.

Which is why there is but one tiny sub-compact for sale in the US to the public that runs on NG.

 

[billvon]

As more and more of these "first users" switch to NG, the number of NG service statation will incease. In a decade of so, everyone will want to cut their per mile cost by more* than 50% and there will be a wide choice of Factory made NG cars available.

If they really go for the per-mile cost and ignore purchase costs, EV's are going to beat everything else hands down. A Leaf costs $2.88 for ~75 miles range in San Diego for a cost of ~3 cents a mile. A Honda GX is going to cost 9 cents a mile when fueled at a gas station and a regular gasoline Honda Civic will cost 14 cents a mile. (All prices from Pearson Fuels in San Diego.)

So why cut your per mile costs by 50% when you can cut them by a factor of 3?

I have become rich because I often foresee what is coming a decade or more in advance and invest before most realize where the profits will be.

And I've made excellent money on oil stocks. Does that mean that oil is the fuel of the future?

I am not saying that NOW one should buy an NG car - just predicting most will by 2022.

I'll bet you $1000 that by 2022, most people will not be buying NG cars. Deal?

 

[billvon]

As I think you know Volt EV production has shut down for five weeks - not enough deman; However, at least a hundred NG vehicles are being placed on the road evey week now.

And 250 Volts are being placed on the road every week. So apparently there is even less demand for natural gas cars.

 

[adoucette]

If they really go for the per-mile cost and ignore purchase costs, EV's are going to beat everything else hands down. A Leaf costs $2.88 for ~75 miles range in San Diego for a cost of ~3 cents a mile. A Honda GX is going to cost 9 cents a mile when fueled at a gas station and a regular gasoline Honda Civic will cost 14 cents a mile. (All prices from Pearson Fuels in San Diego.)

Hmmm?

Electricity cost .15 c per kWh in California.
It takes ~38 kWhs to charge a 34 kWh Leaf battery.

The EPA gives it 73 miles on a full charge

So 38 * .15 = $5.70 / 73 = .08 cent per mile.

On the other hand, a Prius gets 45 MPG and fuel in California is $4.34

So 4.34/ 45 = .10 cent per mile, but gets unlimited mileage.

Of course if you live in NY, then electricity costs more and gas costs less and they both come out at 9c per mile, exactly the same as the GX, but not only does the Prius have unlimited range, it is also a bigger nicer car, costs the same as the GX and less than the Leaf.

 

[billvon]

Electricity cost .15 c per kWh in California.

I don't pay for power now (solar power system) but in general:

Standard SDG+E DR rates:
6 cents to baseline
8 cents 100-130% of baseline
17 cents over 130%

In my previous house I used about 12kwhr/day, which was about baseline. (Baseline averages about 14kwhr/day - more in the summer, less in winter.) If I started charging an EV and I took 24kwhr additional per day (i.e. did an almost complete charge every day, which is unlikely) it would cost me 12.4 cents a kwhr on average.

If someone uses more power nominally they'll pay more per kwhr - if they use less they'll pay less per kwhr.

It takes ~38 kWhs to charge a 34 kWh Leaf battery.

Efficiency for the LEAF charger has been hard to nail down; it is likely between 80% (one user's estimate based on meter readings) and 94% (efficiency of a similar commercial charger.) Your numbers suggest an efficiency of 89% so let's go with that.

So a 24kwhr Leaf battery takes 27kwhr to charge. That's $3.34. Divide that by range (say 73 miles per your numbers) and that gives us 4.5 cents/mile. (again just mileage energy costs.)

Of course if you live in NY, then electricity costs more and gas costs less and they both come out at 9c per mile, exactly the same as the GX, but not only does the Prius have unlimited range

?? I have one. It has a range of about 550 miles. Nice but far from unlimited.

Also Consumer Reports did the same analysis and they got 3.5 cents per mile for the Leaf and 8.6 cents for the Prius. (They assumed a lower price for power, closer to the national average of 11 cents/kwhr.)

it is also a bigger nicer car, costs the same as the GX and less than the Leaf.

Yep. Which is why "mileage cost only" is not always the best metric.

 

[Billy T]

“… General Motors Co. (GM), the world’s largest automaker, plans to begin taking orders in April on pickups that run on both gasoline and compressed natural gas, potentially reducing costs for users. The Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra 2500 HD extended-cab pickups will be offered with a 6.0-liter, V-8 engine that can “seamlessly” transition between natural gas and gasoline, the Detroit-based automaker said today in a statement. A vehicle such as the ones GM will offer can save a driver $6,000 to $10,000 in fuel costs over a three-year period* because CNG is cheaper than gasoline, …”
From: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...th-option-to-burn-compressed-natural-gas.html

“…Chrysler Group LLC plans to disclose it will build the first production-line pickup truck powered by natural gas. The auto maker is promising to build at least 2,000 heavy-duty Ram bi-fuel trucks that run on a combination of compressed natural gas and gasoline starting in June. …”
From: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203986604577257770238882852.html

Dual fuel cars next year? If yes, many public NG stations too. No need of Volt´s complexity.

* And that is with current prices for gasoline and NG (not the $6/gallon likely in three years for gasoline nor the $2/ million BTU NG price)