BRIC+ News & comments

[joepistole]

China has long been powered by coal and it takes time to change that. 100s of small coal mines have been closed and China leads the world in investment in clean energy (wind & solar cells, mainly) I. e. China is investing about as much annually now as Europe and US combined does, but transforming a coal based economy to a clean energy one, does take time.

Well, that's a bit simplistic and naive. For many years now, China has been opening at least one coal fired electrical generation facility every day. China is a leading importer of coal. It needs coal to fire its newly build coal energy facilities. About a quarter of all US coal exports go to China. China isn't closing any coal mines large or small either now or in the foreseeable future.

Also China developed super critical steam generations and is installing these plants rapidly as they get about 50% more KWHs from each ton of coal. The units are installed in pairs. Here is photo of them, from post 907 where more detail is given:

Also much of traveling home in China is by rail, not airplanes. Much less pollution produced per passenger mile.
China is leading in the High Speed rail area too.

It really doesn't matter even if it were true. China is going from zero to one. While that might be a phenomenal growth rate, it doesn't mean China is leading anything. China is just playing catch-up with the rest of the world. And it cannot do it on its own. It doesn't have the technology. That's why China has and continues to engaged in a massive campaign of theft. It has been and continues to steal Western technology, including energy technologies. As I have told you many times before, China is a copycat nation.

http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/may/19/us-chinese-military-officials-cyber-espionage

 

[Billy T]

IHS* released its ranking today that put Trina Solar as the top shipper of solar panels in 2014, followed by Yingli Green Energy. Both companies are based in China, which has dominated the solar equipment manufacturing business for many years now. In fact, six of the 10 manufacturers ranked by IHS are Chinese (if you countCanadian Solar CSIQ +0.00% which, though based in Canada, has its manufacturing base in China).

* IHS, Inc. provides information, insight and analytics in critical areas such as energy and power; design and supply chain; defense, risk, and security; environment, health and safety (EHS) and sustainability; country and industry forecasting, and commodities, pricing, and cost. It is No 69 in Forbes list of most inovative companies.

 

[joepistole]

* IHS, Inc. provides information, insight and analytics in critical areas such as energy and power; design and supply chain; defense, risk, and security; environment, health and safety (EHS) and sustainability; country and industry forecasting, and commodities, pricing, and cost. It is No 69 in Forbes list of most inovative companies.

And IHS is an American company. And, there are many solar panel manufacturers. China copies Western technology, produces goods, and sells them to to the West. That doesn't make China a leading anything. It just means some Chinese companies, Trina in particular, have become large solar panel producers.

It's no secret manufactures have been exploiting China's low cost labor. That's China's only competitive advantage. If China wants to become a consumer driven economy, it effectively ends its sole competitive advantage. As has been repeatedly pointed out, China needs to steal Western intellectual property, that's why it steals intellectual property from Western nations.

 

[Billy T]

... China isn't closing any coal mines large or small either now or in the foreseeable future. ...

That is not true, but admittedly China is opening coal mines too - Its new 50% more efficient Super Critical coal fired steam plants need coal.

Three gigawatts worth of coal power-producing plants were actually closed in 2014, and 18 gigawatts have been closed to date in the country. China pledges to eliminate 20 gigawatts of coal capacity over the next five years to help with air pollution.

China is growing three or more times faster than the US is and that does require more energy each year. China is getting much of that from coal still, but leads the world in instalation of Clean Energy systems.

 

[joepistole]

That is not true,

But it is true. China is heavily dependent upon coal per the previously referenced materials. China imports significant amounts of coal every year because it cannot produce enough coal to meet its consumption. China isn't willingly closing or reducing domestic coal production period. China only shuts down coal mines, large or small, when there is no longer any coal in the ground to mine.

but admittedly China is opening coal mines too - Its new 50% more efficient Super Critical coal fired steam plants need coal.China is growing three or more times faster than the US is and that does require more energy each year. China is getting much of that from coal still, but leads the world in instalation of Clean Energy systems.

Well, how fast China is growing remains to be seen. In truth, we don't know how fast China is or isn't growing, in no small part because China isn't transparent and China is known to fudge its economic data in order to present an overly rosy view of China. But we do know China's economic growth rate is declining while the US economic growth rate has been growing. And as I have repeatedly said, when you go from zero to one, as China has done, that's a tremendous growth rate. But that doesn't mean China is a "leader" as you have asserted. China is just trying to play a game of catch-up with the the Western the world in everything but transparency and democracy.

 

[Billy T]

But it is true. China is heavily dependent upon coal per the previously referenced materials. ... China only shuts down coal mines, large or small, when there is no longer any coal in the ground to mine.

(1) is exacly what I stated in first sentence of post 959: "China has long been powered by coal and it takes time to change that."
On (2) I quoted Fortune in post 964 telling (2) is NOT true:
http://fortune.com/2015/06/18/china-is-utterly-and-totally-dominating-solar-panels/ said:
Three gigawatts worth of coal power-producing plants were actually closed in 2014, and 18 gigawatts have been closed to date in the country. China pledges to eliminate 20 gigawatts of coal capacity over the next five years to help with air pollution.
In post 960 I noted the loss of 18GW electric energy production was much more than compensated by the 56GW of wind and solar generation added in 2014. I. e. in post 960 you can read:
"China was the biggest renewables market in the world with 433 gigawatts of generating capacity at the end of 2014, more than double the U.S. in second place with 182 gigawatts. China led the world in 2014 by adding 56 gigawatts of clean energy, more than four times the U.S., which was again in second place."
So yes in 2014, 38 (=56-18)GW of more coal energy was required to support China's rapid growth. According to Christine LaGuarde / IMF The Chinese economy is now smaller than that of the US but about of the same importance to global growth.

China today is more than twice as big as it was a decade ago. So, the good news is, even with slower growth, China will continue to be an engine of global output. Indeed, an even bigger engine than before. ...

When will China surpass the US? In 2018, based on PPP exchange rates. Later using market exchange rates—by 2019, the last year of our projections, China’s economy would be equivalent to about 64 percent of US GDP.

I. e. China will still be a smaller economy that the US but more of the "engine driving world growth" in two or three years. ...[/quote]I must leave now, but will reply to your comments below as soon as I can.

Well, how fast China is growing remains to be seen. In truth, we don't know how fast China is or isn't growing, in no small part because China isn't transparent and China is known to fudge its economic data in order to present an overly rosy view of China. But we do know China's economic growth rate is declining while the US economic growth rate has been growing. And as I have repeatedly said, when you go from zero to one, as China has done, that's a tremendous growth rate. But that doesn't mean China is a "leader" as you have asserted. China is just trying to play a game of catch-up with the the Western the world in everything but transparency and democracy.

 

[joepistole]

(1) is exacly what I stated in first sentence of post 959: "China has long been powered by coal and it takes time to change that."
On (2) I quoted Fortune in post 964 telling (2) is NOT true:
http://fortune.com/2015/06/18/china-is-utterly-and-totally-dominating-solar-panels/ said:
Three gigawatts worth of coal power-producing plants were actually closed in 2014, and 18 gigawatts have been closed to date in the country. China pledges to eliminate 20 gigawatts of coal capacity over the next five years to help with air pollution.
In post 960 I noted the loss of 18GW electric energy production was much more than compensated by the 56GW of wind and solar generation added in 2014. I. e. in post 960 you can read:
"China was the biggest renewables market in the world with 433 gigawatts of generating capacity at the end of 2014, more than double the U.S. in second place with 182 gigawatts. China led the world in 2014 by adding 56 gigawatts of clean energy, more than four times the U.S., which was again in second place."
So yes in 2014, 38 (=56-18)GW of more coal energy was required to support China's rapid growth. According to Christine LaGuarde / IMF The Chinese economy is now smaller than that of the US but about of the same importance to global growth. I. e. China will still be a smaller economy that the US but more of the "engine driving world growth" in two or three years. ...
(1) is exacly what I stated in first sentence of post 959: "China has long been powered by coal and it takes time to change that."
On (2) I quoted Fortune in post 964 telling (2) is NOT true:
http://fortune.com/2015/06/18/china-is-utterly-and-totally-dominating-solar-panels/ said:
Three gigawatts worth of coal power-producing plants were actually closed in 2014, and 18 gigawatts have been closed to date in the country. China pledges to eliminate 20 gigawatts of coal capacity over the next five years to help with air pollution.
In post 960 I noted the loss of 18GW electric energy production was much more than compensated by the 56GW of wind and solar generation added in 2014. I. e. in post 960 you can read:
"China was the biggest renewables market in the world with 433 gigawatts of generating capacity at the end of 2014, more than double the U.S. in second place with 182 gigawatts. China led the world in 2014 by adding 56 gigawatts of clean energy, more than four times the U.S., which was again in second place."
So yes in 2014, 38 (=56-18)GW of more coal energy was required to support China's rapid growth. According to Christine LaGuarde / IMF The Chinese economy is now smaller than that of the US but about of the same importance to global growth. I. e. China will still be a smaller economy that the US but more of the "engine driving world growth" in two or three years. ...

Well, that's not saying much. For the time being China is the most populated country in the world. So obviously it has more market potential. But achieving that potential is a whole other story. China has recently made pledges along with the rest of the world. It remains to be seen if China will fulfill those pledges. China has a habit of making pledges it doesn't fulfill (e.g. to stop industrial espionage). http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/24/politics/fbi-economic-espionage/

But none of that changes to fact, that China gets 99% of its energy needs from nonrenewable energy sources. China is and will be heavily dependent upon coal. China gets 2/3rds of its energy from coal, the dirtiest fuel known to man.

And as I told you before, going from zero to one gives you a tremendous growth rate. But that doesn't mean China has a significant presence in the renewable energy space as you have asserted. Because clearly it doesn't. As previously mentioned, China sources less than one percent of its energy needs from renewable sources. As previously mentioned, the US currently gets 11% of its energy from renewable energy sources.

 

[Billy T]

... And as I told you before, going from zero to one gives you a tremendous growth rate. But that doesn't mean China has a significant presence in the renewable energy space as you have asserted. Because clearly it doesn't. As previously mentioned, China sources less than one percent of its energy needs from renewable sources. As previously mentioned, the US currently gets 11% of its energy from renewable energy sources.

China is world's 2nd largest economy so there is no sense to you repeating "going from zero to one" It is not growing three times faster than US was in 2015 because it was at zero in 2014.

As I quoted from the IMF, in post 966, They expect China to be a larger driver of world growth than the US is in 2018 or 2019.

In post 960 you can read:
"China was the biggest renewables market in the world with 433 gigawatts of generating capacity at the end of 2014, more than double the U.S. in second place with 182 gigawatts. China led the world in 2014 by adding 56 gigawatts of clean energy, more than four times the U.S., which was again in second place."

Have more installed renewable energy than the US by more than a factor of two (433GW vs.182GW at start of 2015) and instally more than four times as much in 2014 as the US did, can hardly be described as China not having "a significant presence in the renewable energy space" - it is by far the world leader! You can assert that without documentation, until the moon turns green, but that does not persuade anyone - document your assertion as I have.

I. e. my text from post 960 comes from: from Bloomberg's November 1015 article at
(http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...a-s-clean-energy-investments-show-big-strides)

 

[joepistole]

China is world's 2nd largest economy so there is no sense to you repeating "going from zero to one" It is not growing three times faster than US was in 2015 because it was at zero in 2014.

As I quoted from the IMF, in post 966, They expect China to be a larger driver of world growth than the US is in 2018 or 2019.

In post 960 you can read:
"China was the biggest renewables market in the world with 433 gigawatts of generating capacity at the end of 2014, more than double the U.S. in second place with 182 gigawatts. China led the world in 2014 by adding 56 gigawatts of clean energy, more than four times the U.S., which was again in second place."

Have more installed renewable energy than the US by more than a factor of two (433GW vs.182GW at start of 2015) and instally more than four times as much in 2014 as the US did, can hardly be described as China not having "a significant presence in the renewable energy space" - it is by far the world leader! You can assert that without documentation, until the moon turns green, but that does not persuade anyone - document your assertion as I have.

I. e. my text from post 960 comes from: from Bloomberg's November 1015 article at
(http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...a-s-clean-energy-investments-show-big-strides)

Yeah, I've notice you have a penchant for ignoring facts you find unpleasant. As previously demonstrated, China only sources 1% of its energy needs from renewable energy sources whereas the US sources 11% of its energy from renewable sources and 9% from nuclear sources. China is a newbie in this space. As previously put to you, when you begin with nothing (e.g. China), you get tremendous growth (e.g. going from zero to one). It doesn't matter how big China's economy. You are shifting the goal post. This isn't a discussion about China's economy, although the same mathematical rules apply. This is about the fact that your assertion with respect to China and renewable energy is just flat out wrong.

 

[Billy T]

Switzerland's Syngenta (NYSE:SYT) in a deal worth more than $43B* - a move that would translate into the largest ever international takeover by a Chinese company. Syngenta's board has recommended the 480 francs per share deal (a 20% premium based on Tuesday's closing price) to shareholders. If completed, the transaction would help ChemChina transform into the world's biggest supplier of pesticides and agrochemicals, while snatching an asset that was once the target of St. Louis-based Monsanto

* An all cash deal. Probably the Chinese government spending dollars to get real (non- paper assets), but that asumes ChemChina is owned by the government.

 

[Billy T]

Few realize it, but China is a world leader in the fast development of new, needed vaccines. (Made the best swine flu vaccine in about 5 weeks, not months, for example.) Bill Gates health foundation buys a lot from China. They are not significantly cheaper, but often the best and more importantly available before others, to control a new out break. - that I have known for years, but now learn it is big business too:

China's trade in medicines hit an all-time high of $102 billion last year. The latest figures from the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Medicines and Health Products show the value was a 4.73 percent increase on 2014, and this year total export-import volumes are expected to rise again, by 3 to 5 percent.

 

[joepistole]

Few realize it, but China is a world leader in the fast development of new, needed vaccines. (Made the best swine flu vaccine in about 5 weeks, not months, for example.) Bill Gates health foundation buys a lot from China. They are not significantly cheaper, but often the best and more importantly available before others, to control a new out break. - that I have known for years, but now learn it is big business too:

I gotta believe you are on China's payroll.

 

[Billy T]

BEIJING - China overtook Germany in 2015 to become the world's number one in terms of photovoltaic (PV) power capacity, official data showed on Thursday. China added 15 gigawatts of PV power capacity last year, a 40 percent rise year on year,bringing the total capacity to 43 gigawatts, according to China Photovoltaic IndustryAssociation (CPIA).

Many PV companies began to turn a profit last year thanks to the government's positivestance on green and innovative energy production and investment, said CPIA secretarygeneral Wang Bohua.
Wang said the areas of technology research and development, and company financingneeded more attention, and 2016 will see policies related to PV power grid connection andsubsidies. By the end of 2020, China aims to increase non-fossil energy to 15 percent of total primaryenergy consumption, and sharply enhance the ratio of renewable energy in production...

Caption was:
Workers install solar panels on the roof top of a company in Shangrao, Jiangxi province, October 11, 2015.

 

[Billy T]

I gotta believe you are on China's payroll.

Wish I were, but I post about China's progress mainly to correct the very false image many have that China is still the backward nation it was 3 decades ago, instead of the world leader in many areas. Not just world leader in high speed trains, smart grids, installed PV solar systems, efficient use of coal (Ultra super critical steam generation), world's fastest, most powerful, computers for a decade now, ...

For example there is a sciforums thread about Germany's progress toward controlled fusion, but China's huge twisted figure 8 machine has reached temperature three times hotter than the solar core and confined the hot plasma for 102 seconds, not the couple of seconds Germany has.

http://news.yahoo.com/china-close-to-creating-artificial-sun-that-104504777.html said:
" China's Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST) features a massive metallic doughtnut-shaped chamber twisted into a figure of eight. Researchers were able to use the reactor to produce temperatures of 50 million Kelvins (49.999 million°C) and maintain them for 102 seconds. The core of the sun is believed to around 15 million Kelvins. "

Being as ignorant as you are about the progress and achievements of this 2nd largest economy which is growing 3 to 4 times faster than the US (or Europe / England) is very dangerous to US as China takes over leadership in ever more areas, including infrastructure development, by the AIIB, now functioning with 57 prospective founding members* and authorized capital of $100 billion, despite US efforts to get others like the England and almost all of the European nations not to join the AIIB. I. e. China's influence in the world is growing, while that of the US is declining - would be wise to understand why.

That requires information about modern China, not a frozen view of how China was three decades ago.

China's wealth allows it to buy up western companies, like US's Smithfield Hams a couple of years ago, or Switzerland’s Syngenta for $43 Billion last week. China's large, economic conquests, are increasing and one reason why it no longer buys US treasury paper. (Much as I predicted several years ago.) They get a lot of technology that way too, but do annually graduate about 8 times more Ph.D.s in math and sciences than the US does.

* Not all 57 are yet approved. (US did not apply when it could have become a charter member.)

 

[Billy T]

Six Chinese views about how they differ culturally from Americans.
From: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/2015-04/01/content_19834344.htm

1. Privacy: Chinese people do not have the same concept of privacy as Americans do. They talk about ages, income or marital status, which Americans think is annoying and intrusive.

2. Family: Elders are traditionally treated with enormous respect and dignity while the young are cherished and nurtured.
In America, the goal of the family is to encourage independence, particularly that of the children, with few three generation homes.

3. Friends: Friendship means lifelong friends who feel deeply obligated to give each other whatever help might seem required.
Americans always call people they meet friends, so the definition of friends is general and different.

4. Money: Chinese like to save. They are always conservative when they are planning to spend money. It is different in the USA, where far fewer families are saving money for emergencies and education than their Chinese counterparts.

5. Education: Chinese people value education and career more than Americans, who in turn put more emphasis on good character and faith.

6. Collectivism vs. Individualism: China values the community and the US values the individual. If you achieve something in the US, it's because you were great. While in China, if you achieve something in China it's because the team, or family, or company is great.

No. 4. is a problem for the government trying to change to a consumer driven economy. Very few Chinese have a credit card and most do not even know what they are. Especially in the one-child era, more than half the home or apartment purchases were with cash. All the grand parents and the four parents of the young couple chipped in what they could as were anxious to see them married and making a baby to continue the line. These "debts" need not be repaid, except the elders have security knowing the younger generations will care for them if need be (point 2). Main reason why a male child, who would earn more, was much more desirable than a female. That could have been point 7. Americans marry before they can afford a home, and go into debt to buy one.

 

[Billy T]

See China in 24 photographs, taken by an America, as it was in 1930 at: http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/culture/2016-02/22/content_23590086_8.htm You will get a little histor too in the original captions and his comments. Here is an example:
Grinding soy beans with a hand mill (More below the photo)

... It has been found that the soy bean can be used in the making of a great many products. Some of these are paint, soap, linoleum, printing inks, glycerin and rubber substitute. The plant is valuable as a forage crop and the seeds are a nutritious livestock food. As it enriches the soil on which it grows, it is a valuable crop. To the Chinese the soy bean is first of all important as a food, ranking second only to rice. It is rich in vitamins and for the Chinese provides the proteins, fats and calories their rice diet lacks. In China, it is "the poor man's meat and the poor man's milk."

While many large bean mills exist throughout northern China -- where the soy bean is largely grown -- the simple stone mills operated by hand such as we see here are found in almost every home. Bean milk is made by crushing the beans. Water is added and the mass is then heated. This bean milk is fed to thousands of Chinese babies and has been so satisfactory its use is also being adopted in other lands for infant feeding. From the soy bean is also made the famous soy sauce, a piquant sauce much used in Chinese dishes.

 

[Edont Knoff]

China is a copycat nation.

In asian cultures, copying something successful is often seen as a good thing. Once it honors the copied one, since the copier admits that he is inferior and the original is better, still it shows that the copier is able to recognize good things and make use of them.

So the one who copies does both - honor the original, admitting he is a step below, and still makes use of the best that is around.

It was a strategy, encouraged by former leaders, to spread knowledge in their societies.

In the west, the idea was to protect inventors, to make sure they keep inventing, because it pays off for them.
In the east, the idea was to spread inventions as quickly as possible, to make widespread use of any advancement.

West - individual benefit.
East - communal benefit.

It's just the opposite to our idea. I don't think we are in the place to judge which approach is the better one. We "just" have a clash of cultures and opposite ideas in each culture.

 

[Billy T]

... data from Bloomberg New Energy Finance show China installed just under 29 gigawatts of new wind energy capacity in 2015, surpassing its previous record of roughly 21 GW set in 2014. The country also accounted for more than 46 percent of all wind power installed globally for the year, eclipsing the next largest market, the United States, which added 8.6 GW ...

In 2015, China added 30.5 GW of wind power generation capacity[5] to reach a total capacity of 145.1 GW,[6] and generated 186.3 TWh of electricity, representing 3.3% of total national electricity consumption.[7] Both China's installed capacity and new capacity in 2015 are the largest in the world by a wide margin, with the next largest market, the United States, adding 8.6 GW in 2015 and having an installed capacity of 74.4 GW.[8] China is forecast to have 250 GW of wind capacity by 2020 as part of the government's pledge to produce 15 percent of all electricity from renewable resources in this year.

China has twice the installed wind generation capacity the US has (145.1/74.4) and is annually growing its installed capacity nearly four times faster. (30.5/8.6)

Part of Wind farm in Xinjiang, China.

Goldwind installed so much turbine capacity in 2015 it overtook the long-time market leader, Denmark’s Vestas, as well as General Electric of the US, according to FTI Consulting, a business advisory firm.

BTW now 2nd place Vestas, moved almost all it manufacturing of wind machines to China, several years ago. Some still remains in Denmark, to keep jobs there & serve EU market, but they wanted to build near where the world's main market is.

 

[Billy T]

Photo caption is:
" ... The Shanghai Tower, China's tallest skyscraper, in Lujiazui, the financial and trade zone in Shanghai."

The 126 story, 632-metre tall tower is second only to Dubai's Burj Khalifa, the world's tallest building. A high-speed elevator has been installed to take visitors to a viewing platform on the 119th floor in just 55 seconds. ...

 

[Edont Knoff]

The photo also illustrates the polluted air quite nicely. But those cities sure are impressive. Looking at my country I feel very backward in comparison.