Thinkaboutit
Registered Member
If you want to figure out cause of global warming first figure out why there was (and will be again) an ice age. I mean did the lack of burning fossil fuels cause the ice age? Thinkaboutit
Not that I have seen. If you any evidence that bugs make a net reduction of CH4 concentrations when temperature is < 4C, - just give a link to it - your repeated claims to that effect don't cut any ice for me. I want supporting facts. I doubt it strongly as I know that below 300 meters bugs do MAKE a net production of CH4 from the organic matter in large river delta out flows that gets stored as the methane ices.I presented SCIENTIFIC evidence for BOTH claims Billy. ... Arthur
It was you, not me that noted CH4 was heavier than air so would be found in surface layers. I never said anything about the concentrations at high altitude except that a tropical surface air would be heated, rise and cool and then flow towards the poles. That during its high altitude trip what ever CH4 it had would be reduced by the UV and OH exposure. (OH is produced by the UV of high altitudes splitting H2O and that harsh UV does not make it down to the surface.) What is "so wrong" about this? - please be specific.... As to the decreased CH4 in the upper atmosphere, AGAIN you are so wrong... Arthur
{Post 509 final paragraph}... However, I agree that arctic CH4 is still a small release compared to release, both man-made and natural, in more temperate zones. The thing scary about the arctic release is that it seems to be in a positive feedback system now and there is at least 100 years of the temperate zone release that could come up in a decade.
And yet, there are stories in Science and in newspapers about record levels of methane, and large bubbles (completely undigested by bacteria) reaching the surface of the Arctic. But CLEARLY this is not unusual--it's just the first time anyone noticed (??)adoucette said:Clearly the amounts of methane being released in the polar regions is NOT unusual.
Humans have cut back on "their" methane levels? I'd like to see the evidence, but I think there isn't any.And yes, the IPCC estimates assumed that humans wouldn't have cut back on their methane releases nearly as fast as they have, so their GCM models were run with higher then actual methane levels.
And yet, again, there are stories in the media about record levels of methane being released, presumably teams on the ground can collect samples that have MORE methane in them than samples collected a decade ago from the same place.So since they sample by flask at the surface and CH4 is heavier than air so takes a long time to mix, and so if the increases were coming from the bubbling up methane and permafrost being released at surface level then you would indeed see it in the surface samples.
You don't.
These bubbles of CH4 are a new event. The USSR's nuclear subs normally used arctic ports from the start of the cold war* and had no bubble clouds making their sonars useless. That is why Russia scientists became interested in these bubbles that did not exist 10 years ago. Quite possibly there were some that dissolved before rising far from the bottom, but now the sea seems to be saturated so they are out gassing into the air in a positive feedback system of unknown loop gain (probably still less than unity, but increasing). If it gets to be unity, then earth may be in big trouble as there is so much CH4 in the arctic to release.And yet, there are stories in Science and in newspapers about record levels of methane, and large bubbles (completely undigested by bacteria) reaching the surface of the Arctic. But CLEARLY this is not unusual--it's just the first time anyone noticed (??)...
It was you, not me that noted CH4 was heavier than air so would be found in surface layers.
So since they sample by flask at the surface and CH4 is heavier than air so takes a long time to mix, and so if the increases were coming from the bubbling up methane and permafrost being released at surface level then you would indeed see it in the surface samples.
tropical wetlands contribute 52 to 58% of global emissions, with the remainder coming from the extra-tropics, 2% of which is from Arctic latitudes
Quite possible true, but irrelievent - I was speaking of the stratosphere air flow towards the poles as that is where the UV is absorbed and the CH4 concentration is reduced by OH (produced there, not the troposphere) and the direct UV rupture of the CH bonds in CH4.... What YOU were claiming is that the ARCTIC AIR HEADS FOR THE EQUATOR AND IS REPLACED BY TROPICAL AIR THAT HAS MADE A HIGH ALTITUDE TRIP WITH UV AND OH RADICAL REMOVING MUCH OF ITS CH4 BEFORE IT SINKS DOWN TO THE LOW ALTITUDES NEAR THE POLE. But as the global map I showed of high tropospheric Methane levels the OPPOSITE is true.
Not true until you show that the dilutions by sinking stratosphere air can be neglected, instead of very important. I have already explained this to you:... The POINT is that measurements at the SURFACE would show dramatic increases in the Arctic Methane levels if they were occuring, but they don't show that...
... Thus to know what dilution of the escaping CH4 there is, you need to know the volume per unit time of both: (1) The CH4 flux bubbling up and (2)The once tropical air now sinking down in the Arctic, after it high altitude trip from the tropics during which most of the CH4 in it was destroyed by UV and OH radical exposure. (Both in the same cross section area air column, say a square mile)
If (2) is 10 times larger than (1) a very conservative guess, I think as the high altitude winds are often with speed of 100 mph, then there would be a 10 fold reduction in the CH4 concentration in the "surface samples" collected. Just telling CH4 is low is low in the samples does not prove anything until this dilution effect is measured too. ...
Humans have cut back on "their" methane levels? I'd like to see the evidence, but I think there isn't any.
So you do know how to give references, but I AM STILL WAITING for some backup of your claim that bugs can destroy CH4 in sea water at temperatures < 4C.http://www.nature.com/news/2009/090818/full/news.2009.833.html
http://www.globalmethane.org/documents/events_oilgas_20081203_oilgas-5Dec08_robinson.pdf
http://www.globalmethane.org/expo/docs/postexpo/oil_apokova.pdf
http://www.princeton.edu/main/news/archive/S14/36/49E92/index.xml?section=newsreleases
http://www.epa.gov/outreach/sources.html
So you do know how to give references, but I AM STILL WAITING for some backup of your claim that bugs can destroy CH4 in sea water at temperatures < 4C.
If you want to figure out cause of global warming first figure out why there was (and will be again) an ice age. I mean did the lack of burning fossil fuels cause the ice age? Thinkaboutit
adoucette said:And yes, the IPCC estimates assumed that humans wouldn't have cut back on their methane releases nearly as fast as they have, so their GCM models were run with higher then actual methane levels.
http://www.nature.com/news/2009/090818/full/news.2009.833.html said:China cuts methane emissions from rice fields
By combining detailed inventories of agriculture practice throughout China with satellite data indicating the presence of straws in rice fields, the team was able to estimate that paddies across China release 5.1 million tonnes of methane a year — nearly a 70% reduction from the 1980 levels previously estimated[sup]1[/sup] by Changsheng Li, a biogeochemist at the University of New Hampshire in Durham.
...Given that most farmers outside China continuously flood their rice fields, the researchers say that simply shifting towards the practice of mid-season drainage could significantly reduce global paddy-derived methane emissions.
At the moment, most of the methane-monitoring network lies outside the areas where rice is grown. "We need more local information, including methane flux, to get a better global estimate of methane emission [from paddies]," says Butenhoff.
The study has important implications for climate change and mitigation efforts, says McCord. Methane is an attractive greenhouse gas to target for emission reduction, but the lack of an accurate estimate of the baseline level challenges the use of paddy emissions in carbon trading, he says.
OK, there is one very strange environment on Earth with, to quote from your link: “subzero water is so salty that it doesn't freeze despite the cold, and it has no consumable oxygen in it.” where a unique bacterial has evolved that does eat CH4 at temperatures <4C. This unique spot is the small Lost Hammer Spring on Axel Heiberg Island, Nunavut Territory, Canada. There the researchers did find, to quote from your link again: “very unique anaerobic organisms – organisms that survive by essentially eating methane and probably breathing sulfate instead of oxygen."
Ah. So these bacteria, or their cousins, are going to do away with the methane problem.adoucette said:bacterial organisms indeed can work at below 4C, not that these particular ones would be the ones that eat undersea methane.
tropical wetlands contribute 52 to 58% of global emissions, with the remainder coming from the extra-tropics, 2% of which is from Arctic latitudes
In 2008, globally averaged CH4 increased by 4.4 ± 0.6 ppb; the largest increase was in the tropics, while polar northern latitudes did not increase.
Ah some more.adoucette said:Except there is no methane problem in the Arctic.
Ah some more.
So the story in Science and the newspapers, can safely be ignored?
The Russian subs don't have a methane problem either?
The 2% figure is reliable for the foreseeable future? And that's despite the fact the Arctic is warming?
No, wait, don't try to answer any of those questions, just ignore them like you've been doing--it's safer.
arfa brane said:But of course, if the IPCC says so, we can all relax...