To OnlyMe:
Your post 98 is almost 100% correct but following is a little miss leading:
"As the GHG levels increase more IR radiation is prevented from "escaping" or being radiated away from the earth."
Because the IR radiation must nearly equal the net ground level absorbed solar radiation I.e. solar flux less cloud and ground´s immediate reflections back into space of solar photons ("nearly" because there is a small amount of mainly forward scattering of sunlight and pass thru solar radiation by the transparent atmospheric limb of the earth plus the radiological heat release by isotopes decaying. Jupitor radiates significally more energy than it recieves from the sun as it is still cooling from its formation and shrinking that is releasing gravitational energy)
If Earth had more GHGs then the surface temperature would be higher and the IR spectrum radiated would be different but IR energy lost to space would be the same as now, not reduced as one might understand your sentence to be stating. The surface temperature of Venus, which is both closer to the sun and has very thick GHG atmosphere is so high that there could be "lead lakes" on the surface, but it too radiates back into space the absorbed solar flux.
Next paragraph is a paragraph from very good discussion of all this. I quote it as it speaks of the "apparent surface" which is about 5000 meter high in the atmosphere. Significantly below that level few photons with wavelenghts GHGs can absorbe escape the earth. It is sort of the uniform surface from which all out bound photons escape. Its temperature does not vary much with 24 hour cycle. Thus the GHG IR shines steadily into space from it.
"... How is it possible that the Earth exactly balances the incoming sunlight with the outgoing heat radiation? The answer is simple: the amount of heat radiation from Earth is precisely tied to the temperature of the atmosphere.* If the temperature of the apparent “surface” is too low and Earth radiates too little heat to keep the balance, Earth will warm up and radiate more heat into space. If the temperature of the apparent “surface” is too high and Earth radiates more heat than it receives, the planet will become colder and radiate less energy back to space. Overall, this “negative feedback” stabilizes the radiation balance despite all the variations of temperature from one place to another and within the vertical column of the atmosphere. It sets the temperature so that the incoming and outgoing energy is balanced. ..."
From:
http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/virtualmuseum/climatechange1/02_1.shtml
* Note they do NOT say the temperature of the solid earth surface. That can and does vary greatly with the 24 hour cycle.
Which I recomend you read to refine your already good undersgtanding of all this.
BTW, I agree that local weather is much to complex to accurately model a day or more in advance. In fact the
local weather tomorrow is just about as well predicted by: "Tomorrow´s weather will be a repeat that of today." as the weather experts can do but once you start to speak of longer terms and larger averages like the annual mean direction of the wind at 40 degrees N latitude in Eastern US, you can be sure it on average comes out of the west, do to the constant nature of annual Coreolis effects.